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WidreMann

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Everything posted by WidreMann

  1. WidreMann
    I was pleasantly surprised when I woke up. Did not expect that the HRRR forecast would verify.
  2. WidreMann
    About 5-7" here in southern Durham. Had changed to sleet, but the heavy precip is changing it back to snow. Sky has darkened...
  3. WidreMann
    Pretty bold for the Triangle. We will fight mixing and marginal surface temps.
  4. WidreMann
    Yeah it improved slightly after 18 hrs, but it's a little warmer at the surface late mroning.
  5. WidreMann
    Are we sure they aren't as accurate?
  6. WidreMann
    18z NAM is coming in warmer and further north.
  7. WidreMann
    They should be banned TBH. The amount of midlevel warmth is going to really cut down on snow for folks tomorrow. I'm predicting a lot of "why is it already sleeting?" posts.
  8. WidreMann
    Funny thing is, the NAM isn't even the warmest model. RGEM and GGEM are worse. New Euro also.
  9. WidreMann
    I mean I believe that the tripole matters, but I don't feel like it's reasonable to just subtract SST averages and use that to calculate the average NAO.
  10. WidreMann
    12z FV3 is warmer midday tomorrow than the 06z, at least for central NC.
  11. WidreMann
    If I see more than an inch on the ground tomorrow morning when I wake up, I'll consider it a win.
  12. WidreMann
    Not exactly encouraging...
  13. WidreMann
    This seems like a suspect methodology.
  14. WidreMann
    It was fine for me in Durham. Couple inches of snow and sleet. It looked nice.
  15. WidreMann
    What happened in January 2016?
  16. WidreMann
    For Wake County, that's probably reasonable, except the northern parts. Even compatible with NWS forecast tbh.
  17. WidreMann
    All the models except the NAM/SREF are good for RDU, or good enough. If NAM holds for 06z and 12z, I'll cave to the NAM.
  18. WidreMann
    Unlikely. It's too warm for that.
  19. WidreMann
    I wish TT would fix the FV3 maps to generate on time and in order.
  20. WidreMann
    The GFS and the NAM couldn't look more different. Strange for being so close to the event.
  21. WidreMann
    Lol. GFS coming in further south and the high, while not as far east, is stronger, for whatever that ultimately ends up being worth.
  22. WidreMann
    The NAM can do many things. Use your imagination.
  23. WidreMann
    They aren't hi-res models that usually do well sniffing out mid-level warming. I'll weigh the NAM heavily with this one.
  24. WidreMann
    Can we stop posting these TT maps? They include sleet and ZR and are basically worthless in this scenario. We aren't getting 18" of snow in Wake.
  25. WidreMann
    If it can happen, it will happen. That's what's going to kill our snow chances as we lose the heavy precip to keep things cool.
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