WidreMann
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Everything posted by WidreMann
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I've seen it before! I'm guessing maybe it is trying to factor in Jordan Lake and the "hills" west and south of Chapel Hill. But I can't imagine it really making that much of a difference.
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Why do we watch every model run 7 days out? Why not just check once a day until it's 3 days out and then watch more carefully? Seems like a recipe for insanity.
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That's just a Miller B further north, not an apps runner.
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Honestly, it's not really much further north. It's just faster. The cold air doesn't have time to build in.
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Not even that cold. Surface temps in the lower 40s. Granted, that's only a few degrees above 18z, but still. Nothing too big.
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The HP is looking pretty sad at 138. I don't think it has enough time to build in.
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Nah. Early December snow is bonus snow. I'm surprised we even have an event on the table.
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00z GFS is also further north and a little warmer. Might be the beginning of the end.
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So far, no big changes between 18z and 00z.
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The Euro probably looks the best in the lead up. But no follow up cold air is going to be problematic.
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In Chapel Hill, we got like 4" of snow, while areas 10-20 miles further south got...a lot more than that.
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Disagree.
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Man, that reminds me of when people would post those 10 day MRF images that showed the 850 0-line south of us with precip. It only showed that back it was 12 hours of accumulated precip, but 850 temps at the timestamp. These are cold fronts. Every year a new round of weenies would get excited over their inability to read maps.
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I remember when we used to not even really talk about storms until they were inside 120.
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Maybe a rule that it has to be on more than one global model within 7 days for more than 3 runs or something like that.
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I'm sure we'll get something. The pattern is right. But I think wintry mix to rain is the most likely call at this point. Or light snow (if it ends up suppressed).
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This is as silly as the Euro, albeit in a different direction. The number 18 may be relevant for RDU, but I guarantee you it won't be with regards to inches of snow fallen.
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RAH is being too bold.
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Ehh, this thread is worth keeping. Doubt the storm will look anything like it does on the models today, but I guarantee someone in the foothills, at least, will get wintry precip.
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Dude, it's one run of one model. If this is what it shows 36 hrs before the event, then sure. Right now, I feel like there's a greater chance of a cold rain for central NC than anything else.
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Which model?
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Check temps, though. It warms considerably.
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192 Euro -- storm stalls, cut off from cold air also. Will be interesting to see surface maps, but this is a weird scenario.
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Euro also shows some light snow across southern VA with the clipper. We'll need to watch that one.
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I read somewhere that the FV3 has a cold bias. Not sure if that's relevant to CAD events like this.
