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PaulyFromPlattsburgh

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Everything posted by PaulyFromPlattsburgh

  1. PaulyFromPlattsburgh
    Wow the 6Z GFS was a huge hit for the Dacks!!! Huge Friday hit
  2. PaulyFromPlattsburgh
    GFS has now wobbled back south with the threats. I wouldn’t trust it at this point. Was so north last run now south with the overrunning storm 2 this run. Icon vice versa
  3. PaulyFromPlattsburgh
    Wow the ICON looks beautiful. Tons of overrunning! Low pressure circus train riding the front
  4. PaulyFromPlattsburgh
    Yes please!!!!
  5. PaulyFromPlattsburgh
    Yes please Dave . Beautiful . Pattern looks gradient based to an extent.
  6. PaulyFromPlattsburgh
    Haha I am very happy. I have not been on all day. But happy to see the pattern looks like it’s shifting in a better direction for the North country.
  7. PaulyFromPlattsburgh
    I would take 15. Haha
  8. PaulyFromPlattsburgh
    Lots of nice hits for Northern NY. Guess it’s going to depend exactly where that gradient pattern sets up. The way guidance has been this year, I wouldn’t trust any runs until 1-2 days out
  9. PaulyFromPlattsburgh
    Yeh I like to keep banter to a minimum.personally. Some of these analysis are ludicrous. Looks like the ones with the green tag and red tag are the ones to listen to. Have a good night.
  10. PaulyFromPlattsburgh
    Really? A positive tilted weak trough bad positioned at that look good to you? What you looking at
  11. PaulyFromPlattsburgh
    Yeh he is wishcasting. Slightly annoying . Gets old quick. That H5 looks absolutely miserable. If you are looking for an amplified nor’easter that that matter
  12. PaulyFromPlattsburgh
    Partially right. But mainly Wrong. It didn’t phase because that ridge is much weaker than forecasted days ago. This storm is a goner. Next. The leading Vort is not the worry. No ridge. Equal zonal progressive shitty flow. No room for coupling and amplification
  13. PaulyFromPlattsburgh
    This Super Bowl threat is done
  14. PaulyFromPlattsburgh
    no one knows at this range. thats impossible to answer. no one is out of the game yet. Right now many solutions are on the table. All these SW have not been properly sampled yet either. patience.
  15. PaulyFromPlattsburgh
    if you wanna laugh look at what the JMA does between 120 and 144 on TT. blows up and retrogades
  16. PaulyFromPlattsburgh
    at 114 we have a solidified cutoff in the SW. that energy stays behind. deff different than previous runs in the handling of the SW
  17. PaulyFromPlattsburgh
    i see a cutoff low forming in southwestern texas buckling the flow
  18. PaulyFromPlattsburgh
    Icon gives me 6-12 inches of snow wow! Strong storm big blizzard. What a run
  19. PaulyFromPlattsburgh
    yes 1-3 is a solid hit this season. stop looking verbatim. storm track looked good that run. like mentioned before, we dont have cold air. need it to work out just right.
  20. PaulyFromPlattsburgh
    with a lack of cold air, 18z gfs was prob best case scenario for the coast. More west and they torch. East a miss. lots of factors. late phase this run
  21. PaulyFromPlattsburgh
    GFS is a solid hit for many on this subforum
  22. PaulyFromPlattsburgh
    yall might wanna check out the 12zNAVGEM evolution at 500mb also. thats a possibility also. another interesting possible solution. hr180 on the NAVGEM shows how easily this can become all NS if that SS slides east initially and faster FWIW JMA is also a hit and miss
  23. PaulyFromPlattsburgh
    if you look at the last four euro runs, we are consistently losing the confluence positive anamolies look in canada and sadly trending neutral to negative.. not a good sign. just one piece of the puzzle. CMC shows a slightly negative NAO while EURO is clearly slightly positive neutral just by looking at both models 500mb output heights south of Greenland.
  24. PaulyFromPlattsburgh
    also the -NAO is diminished versus the last two-3 euro runs. you can see those heights dropping south of greenland. yesterday at 12z we had positive anamolies in that region. Now its neutralish. also flatter EPO ridge. little things make a big difference
  25. PaulyFromPlattsburgh
    that west coast ridge moved significantly east this run. concerning
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