PaulyFromPlattsburgh

FWIW ICON track and strength identical to 0z NAM

NO worries. if they look like that. you can post them ALL day.lol

cause the very long range HRRR that only goes out to 36 hours twice a day said its going to taint? Thats noise at best. I wouldnt trust that thing past 2 hours

Beautiful. Just found it also. Nammed

Just checked KUCHERA on pivotal. 24-30 inches for the northern dacks

How is the Kuchera? Im sure it went down due to lowered ratios since 700mb was marginal.

I would have a lot of explaining to do to friends, family, and co-workers about why i was so excited for an imaginative storm. It better snow. For my sake. lol. Got a lot of people hyped .If this ends up collapsing on my area last minute and we get zlich i would prob legit be devastated.

yes 2 runs ago low was off the cape. scary close to taint for the dacks. regardless even bigger hit than 18z! NAMMED 1-2 feet across a majority of our subforum

yes i edited that.

we can STOP the north trend now. That was beautiful. 981 into albany at 39

WAY warmer but also has a stronger precip shield. Still stays all snow in Plattsburgh regardless but may cause issues in place like SYR

wow it closed off at hr 21 for a second. did anyone else notice that at 500? thank god it quickly opened back up or it would likely cut straight up. So dynamic.The H5 is really digging those DM contours into the gulf aiding the trough.

I wouldnt doubt it with that H5

This has the looks of another bomb. GET the weenies ready.

500mb through HR12 once again looks deeper again. Past 4 runs same trend.

Great Write up by Burlington NWS! 00 FXUS61 KBTV 052341 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 641 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will briefly remain overhead tonight with seasonably cold conditions expected tonight. Much more active weather returns for Thursday and Friday as a complex winter storm moves into the North Country. Snow overspreads the region before daybreak on Thursday, switches to intermittent mixed precipitation Thursday afternoon and night, and transitions back to potentially heavy snow during the mid- day hours on Friday. Snow will taper off to snow showers Friday evening. Winter travels impacts will be likely for much of the area Thursday and Friday. Much colder and drier conditions return for Saturday, but temperatures quickly moderate back into the 30s for the early to middle portion of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 611 PM EST Wednesday...The calm before a stormy period of wx this evening as weak 1020 mb high pres is located over northern Maine. Clouds are quickly overspreading the ne conus as very fast southwest flow aloft develops ahead of sharpening full latitude mid/upper lvl trof. Water vapor is showing multiple waves of enhanced mid lvl moisture with strong convection acrs the se conus. This moisture and energy aloft will be moving toward our cwa tonight with waa snow expected to develop btwn 07z-10z on Thurs. NAM/GFS shows a ribbon of enhanced 700mb fgen forcing and associated omega couplet, along with quickly increasing deep layer moisture in the fast flow aloft. Expect snow to quickly develop with vis dropping below 2 miles during the early morning hours on Thurs, with localized areas of snowfall rates up to 1 inch per hour. This better dynamics/deep moisture will quickly shift from sw to ne with precip becoming intermittent during the aftn hours on Thurs, but a messy and challenging morning commute is likely. Please allow extra time to reach your destination. Timing of clouds and precip arrival looks very good, just made some minor adjustments to hrly temps this evening, as some locations with dry llvls are falling quickly. However, a warming trend is likely after midnight, with clouds/precip arriving. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 344 PM EST Wednesday...Difficult to follow up the phenomenal work of Peter Banacos in writing this AFD, therefore will lend heavily on his eloquent analysis from earlier today as general meteorological analysis has not changed significantly from his forecast earlier this morning. First off, Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for Rutland and Windsor counties in Vermont & Winter Storm Warnings have been issued for the remainder of the North Country beginning 4AM Thursday through 7PM Saturday. Steady snow will overspread from SW to NE by before daybreak as a warm front approaches the region. Consistent with previous forecasts, generally between 3-5 inches will fall mainly during the early morning hours which will likely impact the morning commute. At time, this snowfall may be briefly heavy, but will be short-lived as main frontogenetical forcing moves north out of the area by 18z. After this, periods of light snow and sleet/freezing rain may mix in, but expected QPF during this timeframe will be limited therefore anticipating minimal accumulations during this timeframe with up to 0.10" of ice for the higher terrain of Rutland and Windsor counties. A brief period of rain may be possible across far southeastern Windsor county late Thursday/Friday, however a small difference in a couple degrees may lead to an additional light glazing of ice. As previous mentioned by Pete, things get interesting for Friday as synoptic and mesoscale factor comes into align for a period of heavy snowfall beginning Friday morning into the afternoon hours. Strong upper level forcing rapidly intensifies the approaching low ejecting out of the Tennessee River Valley with center of 700mb low pressure tracking right over the North Country during the 15-18z timeframe on Friday. This positions somewhere in the our CWA in a highly favorable frontogenetic area for heavy banded snowfall. Deterministic guidance varies on the exact position of this feature, however current thinking for the best chances for this will be across an axis extending from the northern Adirondacks into northern Vermont. Unfortunately, thermal profiles at initial develop of this feature indicate 850mb 0C line bisecting portions of north/central Vermont, including the Champlain Valley, therefore tricky to determine exactly how much snowfall will fall from this band as questions of p-type still remain. Forcing becomes sufficiently strong enough as baroclinicity increases that precipitation should become all snow by 18z providing a healthy dose of heavy snowfall for the Friday evening commute. In this band, snowfall rates could exceed 1-2" per hour, with deterministic guidance indicating the potential for upwards of 6 inches within a 6 hour timeframe between 18-21z Friday. Just for those interested, probabilistic snowfall guidance shows the high end for our northern zones of New York & Vermont receiving upwards of 20" for the duration of the event, with the 50th percentile indicating generally between 10-14" for these zones. For Rutland and Windsor counties, generally between 5-7 inches are expected for the duration of the event as the potential for mixed precipitation will be greatest across these areas. Snowfall will come to an end late Friday night as Arctic high pressure moves in. Pressure gradient remains quite strong as sub 970mb low moves off towards Greenland. Areas of blowing snow may be possible Friday night into Saturday as winds remain gusty out of the north/northwest between 10-15 mph with gusts upwards of 25 mph possible. Temperatures will also fall with lows in the single digits above and below zero. Wind chill headlines may need to be considered across the northern Adirondacks during this timeframe, but at the moment remain below criteria in the mid teens below zero. &&

000 FXUS61 KBTV 052341 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 641 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will briefly remain overhead tonight with seasonably cold conditions expected tonight. Much more active weather returns for Thursday and Friday as a complex winter storm moves into the North Country. Snow overspreads the region before daybreak on Thursday, switches to intermittent mixed precipitation Thursday afternoon and night, and transitions back to potentially heavy snow during the mid- day hours on Friday. Snow will taper off to snow showers Friday evening. Winter travels impacts will be likely for much of the area Thursday and Friday. Much colder and drier conditions return for Saturday, but temperatures quickly moderate back into the 30s for the early to middle portion of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 611 PM EST Wednesday...The calm before a stormy period of wx this evening as weak 1020 mb high pres is located over northern Maine. Clouds are quickly overspreading the ne conus as very fast southwest flow aloft develops ahead of sharpening full latitude mid/upper lvl trof. Water vapor is showing multiple waves of enhanced mid lvl moisture with strong convection acrs the se conus. This moisture and energy aloft will be moving toward our cwa tonight with waa snow expected to develop btwn 07z-10z on Thurs. NAM/GFS shows a ribbon of enhanced 700mb fgen forcing and associated omega couplet, along with quickly increasing deep layer moisture in the fast flow aloft. Expect snow to quickly develop with vis dropping below 2 miles during the early morning hours on Thurs, with localized areas of snowfall rates up to 1 inch per hour. This better dynamics/deep moisture will quickly shift from sw to ne with precip becoming intermittent during the aftn hours on Thurs, but a messy and challenging morning commute is likely. Please allow extra time to reach your destination. Timing of clouds and precip arrival looks very good, just made some minor adjustments to hrly temps this evening, as some locations with dry llvls are falling quickly. However, a warming trend is likely after midnight, with clouds/precip arriving. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 344 PM EST Wednesday...Difficult to follow up the phenomenal work of Peter Banacos in writing this AFD, therefore will lend heavily on his eloquent analysis from earlier today as general meteorological analysis has not changed significantly from his forecast earlier this morning. First off, Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for Rutland and Windsor counties in Vermont & Winter Storm Warnings have been issued for the remainder of the North Country beginning 4AM Thursday through 7PM Saturday. Steady snow will overspread from SW to NE by before daybreak as a warm front approaches the region. Consistent with previous forecasts, generally between 3-5 inches will fall mainly during the early morning hours which will likely impact the morning commute. At time, this snowfall may be briefly heavy, but will be short-lived as main frontogenetical forcing moves north out of the area by 18z. After this, periods of light snow and sleet/freezing rain may mix in, but expected QPF during this timeframe will be limited therefore anticipating minimal accumulations during this timeframe with up to 0.10" of ice for the higher terrain of Rutland and Windsor counties. A brief period of rain may be possible across far southeastern Windsor county late Thursday/Friday, however a small difference in a couple degrees may lead to an additional light glazing of ice. As previous mentioned by Pete, things get interesting for Friday as synoptic and mesoscale factor comes into align for a period of heavy snowfall beginning Friday morning into the afternoon hours. Strong upper level forcing rapidly intensifies the approaching low ejecting out of the Tennessee River Valley with center of 700mb low pressure tracking right over the North Country during the 15-18z timeframe on Friday. This positions somewhere in the our CWA in a highly favorable frontogenetic area for heavy banded snowfall. Deterministic guidance varies on the exact position of this feature, however current thinking for the best chances for this will be across an axis extending from the northern Adirondacks into northern Vermont. Unfortunately, thermal profiles at initial develop of this feature indicate 850mb 0C line bisecting portions of north/central Vermont, including the Champlain Valley, therefore tricky to determine exactly how much snowfall will fall from this band as questions of p-type still remain. Forcing becomes sufficiently strong enough as baroclinicity increases that precipitation should become all snow by 18z providing a healthy dose of heavy snowfall for the Friday evening commute. In this band, snowfall rates could exceed 1-2" per hour, with deterministic guidance indicating the potential for upwards of 6 inches within a 6 hour timeframe between 18-21z Friday. Just for those interested, probabilistic snowfall guidance shows the high end for our northern zones of New York & Vermont receiving upwards of 20" for the duration of the event, with the 50th percentile indicating generally between 10-14" for these zones. For Rutland and Windsor counties, generally between 5-7 inches are expected for the duration of the event as the potential for mixed precipitation will be greatest across these areas. Snowfall will come to an end late Friday night as Arctic high pressure moves in. Pressure gradient remains quite strong as sub 970mb low moves off towards Greenland. Areas of blowing snow may be possible Friday night into Saturday as winds remain gusty out of the north/northwest between 10-15 mph with gusts upwards of 25 mph possible. Temperatures will also fall with lows in the single digits above and below zero. Wind chill headlines may need to be considered across the northern Adirondacks during this timeframe, but at the moment remain below criteria in the mid teens below zero. &&

Looks like a hurricane lol. was sup with all the black lines? so glitchy. noticed 12z had it also.

HRDPS shows some very very strong 2-3 inch an hour snowfall rates from 12Z Friday afternoon onwards. Going to be some god awful travel conditions.

THANKS PAUL. you do not post often but it is always very informative. Soundings is my next goal. I have trouble figuring them out and reading those values. Are you looking at 700mb or 850mb fronto to assess best banding potential?

You just stopped my heart, Dead cold! I need to buy a yard stick.

even KBUF gets in on the heavy action

NAM is a significant hit for many! HUGE. Really tucked in. 100 miles west and 5mb stronger than last run. better capture

This might be the storm of the decade for many in NNE! It’s obviously the only one of the decade so far

wow! Most excited i have been since the November footer.