PaulyFromPlattsburgh

Light snow 21 degrees. Radar filling in nicely. Storms blowing up over TN! Going to be a great night. Enjoy everyone! My final storm prediction total for plattsburgh is another 15.5” inches by tomorrow night

I can imagine. I would make up an excuse to stay until it’s done lol.

Beautiful! Thank you

I’m actually quite worried about ice accretion before the switch to snow tonight for Plattsburgh . HRRR hunting at it well while RGEM and HRDPS colder

As we progress into early Friday morning, expect the areal coverage/intensity of precip to increase, as deep moisture and better lift develops from a number of ingredients. The idea of expanding pops to 100% near the international border and spreading them into VT looks good, given the sharpening boundary and favorable jet dynamics. Guidance still indicating warm layer btwn 800 and 700mb of 2 to 3c, associated with brisk southwest flow, but this should quickly erode as strong dynamics and rapid cyclogenesis occurs during Friday morning, with mixed precip changing to snow from nw to se. Timing of how quickly the changeover occurs will play a huge role in the amount of snowfall on Friday, but crnt fcst of an additional 10 to 20 inches north and 2 to 8 south looks good.

I don’t mind 4-8 inches before afternoon tommorow.thats what NWS is basically saying. I’m not sure if I buy it but we will see . Think less before than with more developing after 10-11am

New Burlington Nightly discussion !!!the forecast area remains unsaturated in the DGZ with the exception of far northern New York and the St. Lawrence Valley. Thus, through 12Z Friday expect precip mainly in the form of snow north of a line from Star Lake to Plattsburgh, NY to Jay Peak, VT where accumulations of 4-8" is expected. Eastward and generally north of I-89 we`re looking at a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain while southward precip will be mainly freezing rain/drizzle. Snowfall accumulations here will generally be light in the 1-3" range with a glaze of ice possible, and southward no snow but up to 2 tenths of an inch of ice is expected.

Same here where is your OBS from tonight? How was your trip to the Dacks?

Clearly for the northern Dacks. Western NY looks fringed

I have been having freezing drizzle nonstop since 5PM. The roads are awful. I agree about the lull but the atmosphere is so moist that the freezing drizzle doesn’t stop. I am expecting to get completely smoked tonight into tommorow to get 12-18! RGEM and HRDPS completely smokes my area with banding.

HRRR and RGEM both showed this Nice light mesoscale banding that has been forming in Plattsburgh last several hours allowing no real break to really occur. Will measure once out of class. Prob close to 2 inches ATM Light snow

Wow RGEM is a big hit . Colder also. Congrats SYR!.. We all get some loving. Northern Dacks crushed. Buffalo weather have you arrived for your ski trip yet? Been thinking about you. Good luck

How were the winds? I can imagine insanely strong due to the gradient between High and low pressure?

NMM short range Meso 12Z run is a huge shit. Very Euroish. Plenty cold. ARW2 is warmer and looks like the NAM. I would focus on the short range models for sure. At least that has worked for me in the past within 24 hours. They seem to best best with temp profiles and boundary layers plus best banding signatures. Lack of consensus on regarding thermal profiles is still evident between the models. Story of the winter

I think he was being sarcastic

No offense but the second round is not at all WAA or isentropic upglide. This first batch was. In fact we have some solid deformation banding in this set up as mentioned by Burlington NWS. I will not be using the 10:1 but will be using Kuchera for this rapidly deepening system . NWS Burlington As of 325 AM EST Thursday...The aforementioned frontogenetic band will be slow to slide eastward on Friday as the area of deformation remains parallel to the mean flow. This means that the area of heaviest snowfall will be slow to move eastward. Snowfall will quickly pile up across northern New York and northern Vermont from late morning through mid afternoon with the 850 mb and 700 mb frontogenesis continuing to strengthen through the early afternoon hours. What`s impressive about this event is that we have a coupling between`s impressive about this event is that we have a coupling between the 850 mb and 700 mb frontogenesis which has been shown in the past to produce some of our stronger snowfall rates. When you couple this lift with an anomalously moist air mass (modified Gulf of Mexico air), you get the making for a rather impressive snow event. Snow ratios initially will be close to 10:1 but as we begin to bleed in some arctic air, we will see snow ratios approach 15:1 Friday afternoon.

Why stop? It’s the most accurate and considers ratios.

Wow that’s a solid 30-36 inches across much of northern Dacks and north western VT. It really wants to hone that CCB band over that area and have it “train” across the same area! The ECM has been very consistent with that specific area getting the goods

Do you think there is a good chance of thunder snow?

I wouldn’t focus in on the GFS at this range. Go with the Mesos and shorter range models

Verbatim the RGEM looks way better for the Dacks with some very heavy 2-3 inch an hour rates!

I have to work at the hospital Friday. Really concerned about my commute as much as I am excited.

I just made an OBS thread

Cool 15 degrees and 75% humidity.

A Plattsburgh special? Say what!