Prospero

As long as you are not all camped on the Alafia River you should be OK. Batteries are always a good thing to have in Florida any time of the year. It has been pretty awesome lately, blue skies and white clouds, very little haze. Feels like Fall.

I'm sorry if I still think of last year too much... It's likely to hit west of NO close to the Texas border as a Cat3+. A late September TS is kind of welcome here in TB, FL. A Cat 1 would be a bit over the top. Seriously, being in a solid mid-TS is an experience to remember. Yet, mostly, clean up and cost would not be real extreme. Granted, sometimes even a thunderstorm clean up costs are too much. 70 mph sustained winds turn a "fun" storm into a serious pain in the behind, if not a total nightmare. When trees start toppling and roofs start blowing apart, it's not fun anymore. Fall Tropical Systems are part of our lives around and we do miss them when they stay away.

Oh I do drop in every day. If I could change last year's forecast contest numbers to this year: Posted June 4, 2021 OK: 14/11/7 Probably way low on named storms, but seven majors. Teresa might be one to be historic... I think I was the first one eliminated. LOL This year even my very low prediction last year seems high. What are the numbers so far?

TS Debbie with 16 inches of rain and winds enough to bring down a few trees was one for us to remember, among many. Irma takes the cake at our home with over two weeks without power and two large oak trees coming down among all the other debris. We did experience the strongest winds we have seen since 2006 or so. A few blocks away, they never lost power. That is Florida, and especially Tampa Bay. After Irma, we do have an all new Duke Energy infrastructure around here. We could even have a blizzard and our power would stay on! LOL Cat 2 or 3? All bets are off...

Yesterday I thought "whining/banter" was meant for a joke! LOL Sorry for jumping in and not reading past a few posts. I moved to Steamboat Springs, CO in the early 1980's. It snows a lot there, like nowhere I have been. A client, someone I knew by business, the President of the Bank in town, was using a snow shovel from the ground to try to get the snow off his roof. Well, horrible story is he ended up buried in several feet of snow and it was too late when he was pulled out. Avalanches kill a lot of people every year. Snow is deadly.

Outside today and tonight in Gullfport, FL (Tampa Bay), it feels like a Gulf system is brewing. I don't know of anything and haven't had time to dig deep. But if it gets a name, what will it do?

Might as well. We'll all remember August 2022 for years to come.

Looks like some decent rain. Hope it helps.

I bet everybody over there can "feel" the air move over them as a part of a huge thing, even if it is weak. I so LOVE that feeling, being a tiny tiny speck in a system going round and round. Cold fronts are OK, a wave coming through. But tropical systems are special.

The feel was in the air...

Double secret probation home brew TD/TS alert is now in affect.

I am possibly back in 2021? Earlier? LOL Either way an occasional surprise GOM storm during a dead time is fun. Maybe in the next day or so?

Remember those names! Since 2003 or so in Tampa Bay,Florida, even when not interested, local weather in the morning have had several wake up surprises right off the coast of the Bay. Go to bed, nothing to think about weather wise. Wake up, a TD is on National news. Maybe my imagination, but seems like every year. But years go by like weeks when you get older...

Colin is the 2022 one I was thinking about. A typical pop up storm in Gulf? Were any of us way ahead of that one? EDIT: Wiki says it formed in the Atlantic. So not the GOM. Was it is a TC spin from GOM?

If I am not mistaking, if this manifests it would not be the first no expectation out of nowhere pop on the radar then news worthy GOM storm of the 2022 season? I went to bed last night with no expectations of even a drop of rain. By the time I woke up this morning after two thunderstorms that had substance, and all day later it is cool, damp, and cloudy with a steady breeze. 100% not expected. Radar has activity on the Gulf. How many times here in my years living in Gulfport, Florida when there was zero TS probabilities which are gone within a few hours when the GOM exhales on a hot day. When I woke up this morning, I could feel it. Maybe it will fizzle away, the dust is big around here, but loving being outside with it feeling like mid-September with a TC in the northern GOM. Something feels like a TC. There is a feel. Or not...

I bought my wife and I a pair of CPAP backup batteries. I can't even sleep at night without one. The ones we bought were recommended here on this forum. No hurricanes since we bought ours, but with typical seasonal thunderstorms, people running into power poles at any time, and winter cold fronts with a wind, we have been VERY happy we have these. Even in the day if the power goes off for no serious long lasting reason, a nap is sweet to pass the time!.

I'd like to mention, not as a sane statement, but as myself I am very cautious about using my "will" or "intent" to intentionally intensify any storm. I know one person sitting in his backyard is not going to change anything. But I am Prospero, and Thunder and Lightning were mine to play with 400 years ago. Now sitting in my backyard with anticipation and excitement, that's another thing. I love watching storms. Every day I get Twitter feeds from Storm Chasers and Mets with very interesting video clips and I watch every one sometimes many times.

This season I am going insanely bored (not new area for me) wanting something here. Irma sucked, weeks without power. The financial costs were unbearable. But now so many years ago throwing away canned food we bought for that storm we never used, shrunken crinkled gallons of water starting to leak in our closet now being used for gardening, etc. I don't want my roof to blow off. I am not happy to think about my neighbors and myself suffering. But we live on the coast in Florida and every year we want "some" excitement. Yes, that is CRAZY! I admit! I lived in Colorado waiting for blizzards. But in the Ski Areas snow is like money falling from Heaven. I've chased storms many years ago and have yet to see a real tornado. I've seen waterspouts come on land and was close enough once to go run and stand in one. But not the same as a mid-west tornado. I've been in several Hurricanes, at least on the sidelines. Maybe a hail storm in Colorado in '68/69 or an ice storm in Michigan '75/76 was worse? Yet most years by Christmas we look back and remember some names forgetting some others, and talk about the Tropical Systems that are a part of our lives, and without we have other issues like drought and wildfires. I'm not a Met, just a computer programmer and Storm enthusiast since the 1960s. So my reputation is not at risk here. just being honest...

I went to bed last night leaving some things outside with a very low chance of rain for Tampa Bay. I woke up at 2:20 AM to thunder and checked radar on my phone, got up and got everything inside just in time. I woke up again at 5:00 am to a second thunderstorm. Now I am looking at sats and waiting for a surprise system to form in the northern GOM today or tomorrow...

They are already "interesting!" Better stock up on TOILET PAPER!! LOL Half-n-half is hard to find some days.

Love the storm and rain reports! Nice start to the season! @captcatz: Over 8 inches of rain in a day is significant. May be the record of the season even for south Florida with an occasional Hurricane to come by. Tropical Storm Debbie years ago dumped 16 inches of rain in Gulfport over a couple days which I think is the record since I have been here. I woke up to light rain for a few hours this morning up here in Gulfport, FL with the Tropical breeze. Wind has actually picked up this afternoon and rain is done. Nice to be back in the season.

Sitting outside tonight is nice. Nothing like a breeze from a tropical system. 5 to 15 mph at best, but it is everywhere. Not just waves of gusts and winds we see all the time. It is like an ocean moving over us. Even little winds sound amazing they are everywhere. The sky is moving over us. Palm trees, Live Oaks, everything is dancing. Looks like rain is out. No strong winds. But tonight is a tropical system night and it feels great.

I took down umbrellas, even way up here in Tampa Bay. Put a few yard decorations in safer places. Right now, nice and calm, slight PTC1 breeze. Will be asleep when something could blow through. No concerns, but always better safe than sorry.

Well, still the first of the year. In my backyard, a few sprinkles. But the steady breeze is from this first PTC of 2022. The breeze is strong enough we can hear it inside our home. Outside it is fairly warm, and steady. It is not a "sea breeze" like we have almost every day in July, it is not an out-flow boundary from a big thunderstorm coming across Central Florida, it is definitely the outer swirls of some kind of Tropical system. It is good to feel, and also good to know it is nothing to fret. We could use a little more rain up here, but this week was a break from the dry season with 3 or 4 inches of rain as the sun set a few nights. Hope it gets a name, but if not I'll remember it for a little while as the "first" this season.