Prospero

I imagine toilet paper will disappear from the shelves by tomorrow night around here...

We lost one oak tree and power for a day when Hurricane Hermine passed by on September 2nd, 2016. A couple outer bands packed a decent punch and it was not even that close to us here.

We've been in the bulls-eye within 24-48 hours a few times, Irma being a very real scare. We will be paying attention to this one for sure.

Not me, but I will say this may be the thread that everyone has been waiting for since last year. Maybe it is the thread with the longest wait time between storms that gets our attention even before a name.

First time this year at a week out, I'm starting a little prep here in Gulfport, Tampa Bay, FL. We have roofers out next Thursday to do a roof condition report our Home Owners Insurance is demanding. I guess if the roof blows off next week it is covered?

I we can stay east of LA/TX this year, maybe it will break a trend that has become annoying...

But it is a drier heat... LOL

The novelty wears away quickly soon as all the ice melts and you can't find it within 30 miles or so. Battery operated fans are a blessing. A tank of gas in the cars is good to be able to charge devices. But living without electricity sucks. We are spoiled indeed!

As long as you are not all camped on the Alafia River you should be OK. Batteries are always a good thing to have in Florida any time of the year. It has been pretty awesome lately, blue skies and white clouds, very little haze. Feels like Fall.

I'm sorry if I still think of last year too much... It's likely to hit west of NO close to the Texas border as a Cat3+. A late September TS is kind of welcome here in TB, FL. A Cat 1 would be a bit over the top. Seriously, being in a solid mid-TS is an experience to remember. Yet, mostly, clean up and cost would not be real extreme. Granted, sometimes even a thunderstorm clean up costs are too much. 70 mph sustained winds turn a "fun" storm into a serious pain in the behind, if not a total nightmare. When trees start toppling and roofs start blowing apart, it's not fun anymore. Fall Tropical Systems are part of our lives around and we do miss them when they stay away.

Oh I do drop in every day. If I could change last year's forecast contest numbers to this year: Posted June 4, 2021 OK: 14/11/7 Probably way low on named storms, but seven majors. Teresa might be one to be historic... I think I was the first one eliminated. LOL This year even my very low prediction last year seems high. What are the numbers so far?

TS Debbie with 16 inches of rain and winds enough to bring down a few trees was one for us to remember, among many. Irma takes the cake at our home with over two weeks without power and two large oak trees coming down among all the other debris. We did experience the strongest winds we have seen since 2006 or so. A few blocks away, they never lost power. That is Florida, and especially Tampa Bay. After Irma, we do have an all new Duke Energy infrastructure around here. We could even have a blizzard and our power would stay on! LOL Cat 2 or 3? All bets are off...

Yesterday I thought "whining/banter" was meant for a joke! LOL Sorry for jumping in and not reading past a few posts. I moved to Steamboat Springs, CO in the early 1980's. It snows a lot there, like nowhere I have been. A client, someone I knew by business, the President of the Bank in town, was using a snow shovel from the ground to try to get the snow off his roof. Well, horrible story is he ended up buried in several feet of snow and it was too late when he was pulled out. Avalanches kill a lot of people every year. Snow is deadly.

Outside today and tonight in Gullfport, FL (Tampa Bay), it feels like a Gulf system is brewing. I don't know of anything and haven't had time to dig deep. But if it gets a name, what will it do?

Might as well. We'll all remember August 2022 for years to come.

Looks like some decent rain. Hope it helps.

I bet everybody over there can "feel" the air move over them as a part of a huge thing, even if it is weak. I so LOVE that feeling, being a tiny tiny speck in a system going round and round. Cold fronts are OK, a wave coming through. But tropical systems are special.

The feel was in the air...

Double secret probation home brew TD/TS alert is now in affect.

I am possibly back in 2021? Earlier? LOL Either way an occasional surprise GOM storm during a dead time is fun. Maybe in the next day or so?

Remember those names! Since 2003 or so in Tampa Bay,Florida, even when not interested, local weather in the morning have had several wake up surprises right off the coast of the Bay. Go to bed, nothing to think about weather wise. Wake up, a TD is on National news. Maybe my imagination, but seems like every year. But years go by like weeks when you get older...

Colin is the 2022 one I was thinking about. A typical pop up storm in Gulf? Were any of us way ahead of that one? EDIT: Wiki says it formed in the Atlantic. So not the GOM. Was it is a TC spin from GOM?

If I am not mistaking, if this manifests it would not be the first no expectation out of nowhere pop on the radar then news worthy GOM storm of the 2022 season? I went to bed last night with no expectations of even a drop of rain. By the time I woke up this morning after two thunderstorms that had substance, and all day later it is cool, damp, and cloudy with a steady breeze. 100% not expected. Radar has activity on the Gulf. How many times here in my years living in Gulfport, Florida when there was zero TS probabilities which are gone within a few hours when the GOM exhales on a hot day. When I woke up this morning, I could feel it. Maybe it will fizzle away, the dust is big around here, but loving being outside with it feeling like mid-September with a TC in the northern GOM. Something feels like a TC. There is a feel. Or not...

I bought my wife and I a pair of CPAP backup batteries. I can't even sleep at night without one. The ones we bought were recommended here on this forum. No hurricanes since we bought ours, but with typical seasonal thunderstorms, people running into power poles at any time, and winter cold fronts with a wind, we have been VERY happy we have these. Even in the day if the power goes off for no serious long lasting reason, a nap is sweet to pass the time!.