NorthHillsWx

Franklin may have opened up into a trough overnight. Really hard to find any westerly wind component on visible this morning and the convection is extremely ragged

Does look to be getting its act together now

Last word on Hilary as the coverage and hyperbole really struck a nerve with me: it is now the 9th story on CNN.COM and isn’t even on FoxNews homepage the day after a “catastrophic event”. Maybe a rainstorm hitting a place that’s needed it the most isn’t such a bad thing? I get that there was flooding and there are probably some impressive videos at washes (which flood impressively after an isolated storm). I also get some places broke all time rainfall records. However, even in a desert, 2” of rain falling over 24 hours isn’t going to lead to the apocalypse. You’re talking about less than 0.09” an hour. A lot of this storm was lighter rain which is exactly what this region needed (I know I saw the flooding videos from washes). Rant over. I just think days in advance people were calling this a catastrophe and it was very clearly going to be the exact kind of rain event the region needed to put the nail in the coffin of the perma drought

Multiple long track waves across a moistened central Atlantic with a significant decrease in shear + lack of TUTTS after Franklin is sucked north. And, a very strong mid Atlantic ridge building through end of run meaning less escape routes for anything to make it north. Never mind the Andrew-like storm that hits Florida and the Gulf as a major with another strong hurricane being pushed west beneath that ridge and another likely storm coming off the coast of Africa at the end of the run. Pretty much squashed all of the inhibiting factors of the season thus far and shows some strong storms with westward tracks as it does so

That GFS run was … scary

What’s the verdict on how this event panned out from a human impact standpoint? Lots of dire rhetoric going into it but I haven’t seen or heard of much in the news other than some light flooding around LA

96.8 degrees. Ready for fall.

As expected the circulation appears extremely elongated. It’s possible it may have opened up. Let’s see if they find a consolidated center this pass

Comparison between the basins: EPAC: 8 storms, ACE 104 N Atlantic: 8 storms, ACE 17

I think a 50-60kt landfall is what I’d be expecting at this time based off current trends

Franklin’s circulation seems extremely elongated on visible imagery this morning. I wonder if we’ll get recon today to examine the structure. Definitely getting blasted by shear but man this storm has some impressive convective bursts continuing

I wonder if all this activity, though weak, may work to mix the ocean up and decrease some of the crazy hot SST anomalies we’ve had to this point. A large % of the basin is covered in Clouds and rain from all of these storms

I mean a bunch of one day minimal TS is not going to catch anyone’s attention but Gert still being a TS surprises me. The center is way removed from the convection and looks to be completely falling apart under franklins outflow and though there might be a few 35kt winds in that thunderstorm it just doesn’t look like the definition of a tropical cyclone to me. The storms on top of the LLC aren’t even associated to Gert, it is that sheared

Im not even sure Gert was more than a single thunderstorm gust. I woke up and saw Gert this morning and looked at the satellite and immediately became confused as to what actually constituted Gert bc whatever was there last night was already completely gone. Never have I missed the formation and death of a named storm while I slept

3-0-0. There has not been a hurricane yet. Franklin may try

Still no FFW with the event yet

Beastmode

Once again, historic rainfall over the “perma” drought. Get away from the runoff areas and waterways and let this storm fix 15 years of drought in a few days. This is the absolute best thing that could have happened for the southwest, I’m tired of everyone putting a negative spin on something that (when the rain ends) will be the best thing that’s happened in a decade to help the local environment

For years they’ve filled the news with pictures of lake Mead evaporating and this could possibly fill the lake up. Sounds like a win to me!

I know. I’m reading on here and it’s like doom and gloom with how “bad” it’s gonna be in the SW and I’m just thinking how people are worried that “a remnant tropical system hitting the most drought stricken part of the country over the last decade” is a bad thing… Like how was the drought going to end? Endless days of light rain in the southwest? This seems like the absolute best scenario possible after the great winter they had

Other than the flash flooding, isn’t this overall an excellent thing for the region to end the long term drought? Last winters snows and rains seemed extremely beneficial but this seems like it could be the nail in the coffin to end the drought many thought would never end just a year ago

While I agree with your comments about the SAL dissipating somewhat allowing for the increased chances of activity, it comes with a period of significant wind shear in pockets across the basin. I do not see a path for a strong storm over the next 2 weeks unless something develops rapidly in a window but with multiple TUTTs and SAL sticking around even if diminished it does not look like an environment that would support a long track system especially one of a stronger intensity

Looks like a bunch of short lived sheared systems but an active stretch nonetheless

It’s bad when 92 and a heat index of 95 qualifies as a cool down

Had 5 separate storms yesterday all with a lot of lightning. Kinda got a little fringed on most of them but still picked up 0.45” of rain. Did not get fringed by lightning however. It was rocking for several hours straight it seemed like