NorthHillsWx

My 0.02- I’m going with climo + shear winning out. Beryl hasn’t surprised to this point, maybe a higher peak than what we thought to be possible, but it was apparent days out there would be few mitigating factors. It didn’t explosively strengthen in the face of a poor or questionable environment, it maxed out in a very conducive environment. That environment is running out. It faces high shear from a TUTT. It faces possible trough/dry air interactions. It will have land interaction with Jamaica. I think Jamaica is in trouble bc it is so close and so strong, but beyond that, its current strength has no bearing. I’d lean heavily on a cat 2-3 strike on Jamaica followed by a rapidly weakening storm into the Yucatán. In the gulf, shear could decrease, but there might be dry air issues (normal after a trough passes especially this early). There’s a reason some models essentially evaporate the system. Long story short- while you should never let your guard down with an active system in the gulf, Beryl has more mitigating factors going against it than anything that could help reintensify the system from this point through to the end of its life. Perhaps the synoptic setup changes as we get down the road for the gulf but I’m leaning with climo and what we know right now as for expected environment. NHC is smart to keep this a H moving into Yucatán and I have no issue with their forecast. I just know it will be weakening at that point

Seeing intensity forecasts ranging from cat 4 to 50 knots is crazy

My god. That is all. Speechless.

This is usually how annular canes start but that’s just not possible in the carribean in July, right?

I mean this is so borderline I can’t fault them for going either side of a 5. I swear this was likely maxed out 2 hours ago and those FL winds are reflective of that. I could see an upgrade if damage warrants it but I doubt this data warrants the upgrade. For both Ian and Michael there was conclusive wind data for the upgrade.

It peaked a couple hours ago but it’s very close to a 5 now

I wish we had recon 2 hours ago

That gust to 121 in Grenada is sobering. That’s 30 miles from the eye, in the southern quad of the storm. It’s also on the extreme southern end of the island. Good lord

Just from Beryl, our ACE may approach our average level for mid-August by the end of this week. How’s that for a head start for the ACE folks out there?

IMO there’s evidence this is already at cat 5. Radar, flight data, and satellite could all be used to say this is a 5. It’d close. I don’t think it’s done deepening yet either. 150 or 160, not terribly much difference. At least it missed the larger islands, those islands it did hit are likely shredded and will be uninhabitable after the storm for a long period. I hope everyone has safe shelter, I expect Irma-like images after the storm passes. As others have said, when you see these mesovortices you can get gusts much higher than the stated sustained wind. I have no doubt extreme winds well over cat 5 are being experienced at least in gusts. This storm is an absolute specimen. Hopefully we avoid loss of life

You can see some mesovortices rotating around the eye, similar to Michael’s presentation just before landfall. I have no doubt there are some cat 5 winds in some of these. This thing is high end and mean

Has the radar presentation of a 5… Just saying

Good News: this looks like it has gained enough latitude that the worst of the core might pass just to the north of Grenada.

130 mph 959 mb

Picked up 0.04” before midnight for a monthly total of 0.46”. You read that right. Under 1/2” for the freaking month. Picked up 0.05” after midnight so at least July starts with something

Yep… SFMR winds above 120 too. This is back to a 4

Recon finding stronger winds than last nights flight. Seems to support the current intensity, though I am sure it dropped below MH for a period early this morning

Nope, not good at all. Radar presentation is rapidly improving. I agree, the CDO is likely to become more symmetric again and radar seems to be confirming that with a strong band wrapping all the way around the eye. What looked like the islands may be catching a break a few hours ago now looks like a larger and just as strong storm may be the reality.

Doesn’t want to fully complete the ERC. Extreme hot towers going up now. Let’s see if this pushes it past the finish line. EDIT: radar looks like a complete ERC. Strengthening seems imminent

Picked up 0.11” for a monthly total of 0.42”. Unbelievable drought setting in, looks like another extended dry period

The streak is over. Barely. Not sure I’ll count this. All went south of us

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 It’s still June. absurdity

Yep. This is a TS

That’s going to be the most viewed radar of the year (possibly)

Extreme outer bands will start impacting the islands by nightfall. This is on the doorstep. This is getting very real, very fast