NorthHillsWx
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Everything posted by NorthHillsWx
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lol the AI with the casual 200 mile NW jump to be in lockstep with everything else. Actually colder at surface with ice for central NC. As scooby says, ruh roh!
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Everything looks like it trended a tick colder at the surface than 0z. This matters bc if it’s 26-27 vs 29-30 I’d have to think 925’s would be colder too and we could sleet instead of ice for some of the event. If it is in fact 26-27 with freezing rain, those high end ice totals will be realized
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Looks like it might cut inland. Looks miller B
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Hey, we might come close to equaling our snow total over the last 3 years in ice!
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It’s a major winter storm for NC and southern VA. Major major ice storm here.
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Pretty solid model agreement on an ice storm for us
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Icon drops 1.50” of precip and 99% is modeled as freezing rain for Raleigh. I don’t have freezing rain maps but that would likely be at least 0.75” of ice
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925s are 0 to -1 along and west of US 1 during the peak of the precip on ICON. Folks thats not freezing rain. That’s a sleet bomb
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Yikes is right…
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I worry the 1”+ freezing rain will show up over my house on that run
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Mixing aside, ICON is a HELL of a winter storm for NC
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ICON MUCH colder
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I think the triangle area is at its highest risk of a devastating ice storm since December 2002
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GEFS was much more suppressed/wintry in the Carolina’s, FYI.
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The low level CAA is strong with this one
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It was colder at the surface. Ice all the way to the coast. I’d have to think there was a lot of sleet showing as freezing rain.
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It’s a late bloomer but it’s better than 12z I guess. Definitely more amped along the coast
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GFS looks unchanged at H5. Likely to be warm again
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It’s hard to take it seriously here. It moved the low from cape fear to Mexico beach in one run
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And every year. It is a totally different solution than 12z. Wouldn’t live or die by what it says but having it look more like other models today isn’t a bad thing
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It looked to be phasing as the run ended. Very close. I’m not so sure it wasn’t about to go apeshit in a couple frames
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ICON was a mixed bag for central NC but much better than 12z. Looked like it was getting its act together at the end of the run
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Icon looks like it’s starting a little colder
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A 1” mean with a coastal is insane at day 5
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My .02 is that given model agreement for days now on a significant storm of some type for the area (and likely a high impact one for areas that get below freezing), and we’re only 5 days out, this probably deserves a thread since it’s hijacked any chance of discussion about the upcoming pattern, which honestly looks like we might get another chance before March.
