NorthHillsWx

This period has my full attention

Finally a long range op run with multiple winter weather chances. This aligns perfectly with the ensembles and their well-advertised pattern flip going into the first week of Jan. I already like this more than the last few years where we started kicking the can chasing day 15 pattern changes 7x a week at this point. Nice seeing a favorable pattern in peak climo seemingly becoming a reality. Even if this window doesn’t produce the LR looks extremely good and I think we will have a couple shots before mid month. That doesn’t mean anyone outside of the mountains scores, but we will have opportunities to track

GEFS and GEPS both look really good for the first week of January. This hasn’t been a can kick either.

Surprised to see a wintry mix when I let the dog out

2.90” storm total here. 6.94” for the week including last weekends storm. That’s a hell of a way to kill the drought

High wind warning now

50-60 mph ground verified gusts showing up in southern piedmont

Moments later: confirmed tornado in Myrtle beach moving NE. Debris signature clear on radar

That area Myrtle Beach-Wilmington needs to be vigilant for tornadoes with this band moving through. Lots of areas showing broad rotation and there’s a lot of energy with that band

That was a really good storm. Everything stuck and was in mid 20’s and snowing. Stayed cold afterwards. That’s the only bright spot since December 2018 and it was just 3-4” in my area

This weekends storm has trended way east. Probably saves inland areas from worst winds and severe threat

One positive trend is this thing has really sped up. What was looking like a long duration event stretching from Sunday to Tuesday is now mostly just Sunday afternoon. Rainfall totals have come down accordingly. I know everyone needs the rain but 3-4” in a short time after last weeks rain would probably cause flash flooding

This is looking like a significant weather event. I’d expect a serious squall line in Florida too

At least we don’t have to worry about “what if there was cold air”

Yea I guess to broaden my point: this isn’t even going to produce snow in New England with a perfect track in mid December. For us it’s not shocking but the lack of snow up north with a storm track passing over the “benchmark” is highly, highly anomalous for mid December

Early next week’s Miller A with a perfect storm track and absolutely no cold air is going to sting. That being said, if that track continues this year eventually we will score

While I will admit there aren’t any really warm days in the LR, it’s freaking above freezing across the entire US outside of mountain areas for days straight in mid-late December across the border. I mean when ND is struggling to get below freezing (not below zero) in late December, we are in major major trouble for a long time

Garner Tornado rates EF-1

It is certainly concerning seeing the consensus towards a prolonged mild pattern for the entire continent. We’ll need to see some signs of cold air building up north to have any hope going into January. Like I said earlier, kicking the can through December isn’t the worst but it becomes an issue if we’re still sniffing for a change in the LR when the calendar flips to January

Im ok with it as long as we’re seeing some signs of something changing in early Jan. Otherwise, we’re going to be stuck in our can kicking pattern we have been in since December 2018

All indications seem to be pointing to a punt until early January at the earliest for sustained cold and snow chances outside the mountains. MJO and ensemble guidance is ugly. That being said, my brother is reporting about 1/2” of surprise snow from Urbanna Virginia this morning

I wish this was snow but we “jackpotted” with this event. Finished with 4.04” of drought busting rain

Yea I’ve noticed that. Insane rates here. Just like that we’re over 3”

This is drought-busting rain. Training over us since 4:00. Over 2”

Confirmed tornado in Garner