NorthHillsWx

While it’s not all climate change, throwing out places that have a buffer and don’t struggle to get to freezing for snow as evidence is a poor argument. If you were 20 degrees and now you’re 25 it doesn’t matter. When we struggle to get to 32-34 for snow as is, it’s a much bigger deal even if you’re a degree or two warmer

Yep I’m taking my daughter to the farm right now. Spring has sprung

We might push 80 today if we keep the sun. Already a humid 70 out at 11

And to take it a step further bc the bar for being “measurable” is so small, if you add up RDUs cumulative TOTAL snow over the last 6 years (assuming this year is 0.00”) then the total amount from that entire time period is right around our yearly average. So even though we did have measurable snow in 4 of those 6 years, the amounts were tiny

I may be wrong but I think if we don’t get snow before January next year this will be the longest stretch in recorded history without measurable snow for a lot of folks

I don’t ever want another El Niño winter ever. Having to wait until March 28th for my backloaded season is testing my patience! Bring on La Niña, I’m sure we’ll win early and win often then!

I’m taking the kids out to the farm today, perfect day to get out before the rain

You see the analog years and we just keep setting new precedents for failure. A part of climate change that may lock us out of consistent winter weather in the future may be the supercharged northern stream. Going back to La Niña this year is going to sting when winter forecasts come out this season and pile it up with the previous closing in on a decade winters of failure and a trend is emerging

This thread offers more accurate forecasts than the actual forecasting thread

Epic epic fail for long range models and teleconnection forecasts. Hard to be rock steady for a month then crack the week of. I do not know how to break out of the pattern we’re in or just accept the climate is not what it was 30 years ago or heck, even 10 years ago.

You gotta love seeing classic Miller A gulf lows riding the coast in February with plenty of moisture and rain… in the mountains

Not only is this our second snowless winter, it’s also looking like the second winter where the roads were never once brined. Keep in mind they’ll brine the roads here if 1 hour of freezing rain is expected, if that puts this into perspective how bad it’s been

EURO just dropped, it’s all rain. Not AS hideous as GFS but absolutely no cold air anywhere close to work with despite a nearly perfect track. Even the mountains are mostly rain

The NAO forecast has completely lost the blocking we were counting on. 50/50 low for cold air source? Gone. I mean the rug has been pulled for those who were still holding out hope. Maybe the PD storm times it well enough for a little CAD mix in favored areas but the pattern change isn’t so much a change as a 3-4 day transient shot before we return to pac dominated continental air. All ensembles are warming and those weeklies that were so locked into this time period are showing their true value: nothing. It’s spring time, get out and enjoy the 75 degrees today. If it wasn’t overcast we’d be smashing records area wide today, that’s the only part of this forecast that’s held true through the period

My snowfall prediction for the 2024-5 winter has been released: 0.00”

GEFS is below normal for the 18-20th period, near normal 20-22, then WAY above normal the rest of the month. Sound familiar to Jan?

Verbatim if that track doesn’t produce snow in central NC it will never snow from a coastal here again

Dare I say that happy hour might be interesting?

Give me an overrunning event with a sustained cold source over ANY other setup at range

I can’t wait to do a post mortem on why this winter failed. I think at this point, unless a freak 6” + event occurs, this whole winter will go down as a major failure given the expectations, analogs, and forecasts. Almost no cold stretches and zero threats to track during a strong nino is tough to stomach. A 1” snow or a ice event will not remove the stench from this season

Thanks! That March 6-7 2014 event was the one I was referring to. Areas south of Greensboro looked like a bomb went off in places, very bad tree damage. If I recall that event occurred overnight which mitigated the sun angle issues for ice accrual

18z, 0z, 6z… the coffin is nailed shut. Better luck next year, folks

The bottom of the cliff is accepting free memberships. This is a limited time offer and will extended through every winter until 2075, or until you move to a location where it can still snow

Literally says “what pattern change?”

https://www.facebook.com/share/a8RRaMixT1S6MipA/?mibextid=WC7FNe