NorthHillsWx

These are the best ensembles we may have ever seen at this range. Unbelievable trends today on that front.

For my money I bet central/northern VA get this storm. It just wants to snow there this year

There is but I’m just saying, we have seen these cold pushes over modeled time and time again this storm is going to ride that edge and I am becoming more and more concerned it’s inland. Honestly the suppressed runs yesterday gave me hope

Ouch

EURO with an inland track. That’s why it’s an ice storm. Y’all better hope that NW trend stops I’ve seen this tune before

What’d I miss at 12z??? Place seems active

One thing I am very concerned with this storm is there is nothing to keep it from going NW. There is no blocking. If the energy gets hung up out west or the cold push is over modeled we will see significant NW movement as we approach that timeframe. This is where this system differs greatly from the last one where NW movement was always limited. We really are dependent here on that MW high both in strength and location. I know the upside is there but this scares me as it could be a massive rain storm and that is a very valid possibility. Hate to say this but this is definitely a thread the needle situation reliant upon the pre storm cold push and HP for storm track. Do not think a rainstorm is off the table this go round

27.7 this morning. 20s are the norm this winter

Amen

To reel the forum back in, let’s look at where we stand on the Brick storm: 1) there is an incredible storm signal for the 21-23rd timeframe 2) ensemble support is HIGHER than it was at this range with our last system (this is when it started to fade) 3) H5 setup looks much better than the last system and cold air might be fresher 4) Pretty much every run cycle is showing a major winter storm on one of the ops. In my experience this only occurs with the big storms. I’m not saying a big storm is coming, I’m saying models are showing us there is support for a large storm and the pieces of energy to get one are there. Major storms don’t hide their origins. This one has higher end potential and models are showing us just that 5) No can kicking. This timeframe has been steady. We’re into the 1 week out phase. This is important bc we are not talking fantasy land anymore, like when Brick made potentially the call of the millennium

More like some of us haven’t seen an inch of snow since 2022 and we’ve jumped into the loony bin

What’s dead may never die

Nothing. It’s locked in. Brick reeled this one in from hour 320

Not a chance in hell it gets anything different. I’ve been in contact with the weather channel

Euro AI also pops a SE death ridge at the end of the run and sends 75 degree temps this way on the 28th. Just a 45 degree difference from the GFS at that time

GFS actually trended closer too

The NW trend begins!!!

If this storm happens it is going down in history as the Brick storm. Never have I seen such a bullish, foolish, weenie ish call but damn if he might be onto something.

06z GFS has a massive winter storm for the entire SE. like massive.

06z GFS about to go boom

Most have the storm. That’s all we need for now

27.2 this morning and 53.3 this afternoon. First 50’s of the year

Need ensembles to tick back up. Happy to still see the storm on some ops runs but a lot of the excitement last couple days was (I know the EURO and GFS mega storm runs reeled in a ton of folks) due to strong ensemble support for the timeframe

Honestly an impressive string of runs for ENC

The “Brick Storm” on life support already on D9