NorthHillsWx
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Everything posted by NorthHillsWx
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Need EURO onboard but nice seeing GFS coming home
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He’s not breaking until he’s shoveling 15” of wake county powder this week
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Gfs has trended west pretty far last few runs (after it revived the storm)
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Icon looks much more suppressed than 12z
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We’ve reached the “bet on the the Canadian/Icon over the GFS/EURO” phase of tracking here. In layman’s terms, we’re cooked
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CMC would feed families!
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GFS better. It has the storm again. Doesn’t completely trap that Baja low
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Euro had the storm but was suppressed. EPS actually very good. GFS only model without the storm. GEFS better than Op but ticked down for most
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We’ve reached a crossroads with the models. The 21-22nd system is our snow chance. The second system is charging into a stale retreating airmsss and will not work for most outside the mountains. GFS isn’t even suppressed, it hangs the energy back up and doesn’t even have a storm. If that happens, there’s no NW trend to root for, this is DOA. Better hope other models are right because the GFS is going the wrong way in a hurry
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GFS has lost the first storm. Second storm is a mixed bag to rain for most. Joy
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GFS doesn’t even show wave 1 this run
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7 days? More like 5
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Coldest morning since Jan 2022 at my house. We’ll see where we bottom out EDIT: 17.1 was the lowest we got
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If I’m in the western Carolinas or Virginia I’m probably starting to sweat this one. If I’m in the Deep South or central/eastern Carolina’s I feel pretty good still. Suppressed I can deal with but a flat lifeless wave isn’t going to work for anyone. We’re at the stage now where trends matter. The trend is definitely a little more flat and suppressed. We’ll see if that stops. Having both the GFS and Euro on outside looking in is not good. EPS has been fairly rock solid though. Today will be interesting
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EPS has been fairly consistent too, unlike the op.
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Those in western NC don’t get burned every single storm by the NW trend. They just go from 2” of modeled snow to 4” of snow on the ground and call it a win while we rain. I’m not saying it’s gonna happen but if the storms where that model is right now I’m damn more Comfortable than one modeled along the coast at this range. IMBY whatever I haven’t seen an inch of snow in 3 years I’m living in the loony bin on this storm
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My thoughts.
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18z AI trended way south but at least it lost that ridiculous 850 warming and was all snow in the piedmont areas. Honestly not a bad look
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Yes
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I was worried about that the last few days but suppression to the point our energy in the SW is severed from the flow was not on my bingo board today. Suppressed is too broad here. There’s no storm. It holds the energy back until the cold press passes.
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Definitely shows the whole suite is in the suppression camp
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If the Op follows along all will be well in the world
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Round these parts, picking the model showing the least amount of snow is usually the correct call
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GFS losing the storm entirely doesn’t give me the warm and fuzzies
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GFS is really bad
