That SE quad is pretty solid on radar now. Not surprised by recon, this probably gets bumped to 50-55 Kts at 11. I guess the question is in the face of 25 kts of shear, how close is this to its ceiling? Maybe 60kts later today?
1.41” at my house between 3 separate periods of rainfall brings the MTD total to 7.98”
EDIT: just picked up 0.30” from a heavy but brief storm. 1.71” for the day 8.28” for the month. Looks like more incoming
Better banding features especially in eastern quad on radar but center still dealing with serious dry air. Recon confirms with very light winds a good distance from center. Not far off from TS but not very well organized at all. NE shear is very evident and dry air intrusion will certainly limit this thing. Not sure the environment gets better even if it misses land and went south of Louisiana some models actually show shear increasing later on
I think the key here is Wake/Durham/franklin counties probably had the wettest month after being left out on everything rest of the year. Does alter one’s perception when you’re under repeated rains vs someone a county or less away not seeing them
Seems to be trending a bit north today with less of a time window over water. Probably only gets to minimal TS at this point. Satellite appears to be showing more northerly shear today as well
I’d say most of central NC likely is above July normal amounts for the entire month and it’s still the first half of July. Yesterday’s rainfall was widespread and affected many areas that had missed out somewhat earlier in month. It seems the tide has turned on the drought looking forward with no signs of extended dry weather at all