NorthHillsWx

Confirmed tornado otg now over Captolo

2 likely tornadoes otg NW of Savannah per radar. TOR threat ramping up with discrete supercells now developing

Damage in the Pensacola area looks much more significant than areas further east. Definitely structural damage in line with high-end category 2 winds.

0.07” this morning. Not expecting much from the system, will be very happy if we get 1”

Pretty solid gusts recorded with this one. 118, 116, 114, 110 were the highest I’ve seen and most of those were from the western edge of the degrading eyewall! Pensacola through Milton to Jay seem to have had a sting jet because they were not in the actual eyewall or at best on the edge and that area all saw gusts over 110. I see the usual discord of land obs not matching operational intensity (not worth arguing with those people after every storm) but this system produced widespread gusts over 100 and several recorded gusts over major hurricane strength. Also, that sustained wind of 92 being recorded is impressive. Overall, Kind of in line with exactly what was forecast…. As for LF pressure as @GaWx shows this thing was rapidly filling in as the actual center crossed the coast. As all of the eyewall was already ashore I don’t think it matters as much here but when the actual center crossed the coast as it was well behind the main convection i doubt Winds over 100 were occurring. We’ll see what surge looks like but the worst is going to be between Destin and Panama City. Panama City measuring 5.6 feet makes me worried there are going to be some 7-9’ areas to the west. Daylight will reveal that. Overall this storm was exceptionally well-forecast by NHC and with a challenging forecast, pretty early on they were advertising a dangerous hurricane at landfall. If anyone doesn’t think seeing wind gusts over 100 with some major gusts over 110 also actually recorded qualifies as a “dangerous” hurricane, not much else to say here.

https://x.com/pappenheimwx/status/2108697812766441670/video/1?s=46

Doesn’t matter much now. Eyewall moving onshore

What a beast. Who saw this coming a week ago

The eyewall is roughly 4 hours away. We’re on final approach

One thing shear is doing is going to work on eyewall symmetry. Half-a-cane look starting. Hopefully that starts the weakening process. This current convective burst and little change with the CDO seriously lessen the chances of significant weakening but you can tell this storm is simply being held in check atm

Yep.

For real. IMO based on recon we have a cat 4 just hours from landfall in a very populated part of Florida and some on here still think a nor Easter is going to be the end result.

I think we’re getting some sting jet interaction. This very likely is cat 4 based on recon’s last pass of FL winds 130+ kts

Recon looks like this has shot up to cat 4

That… is actually impressive. Against 40 kts of shear

New hot towers. Still probably another hour to true peak

FL winds actually up and pressure down last pass. This is a 110 kt storm now

Recon shows this has either peaked or leveled off. NHC noted they now expect a major at/just before LF

A rapidly intensifying major under 10 hours from landfall is justification for as many passes as they safely have fuel for!

I’m upping my prediction from yesterday (previously 105 kt peak, 80 kt LF) to 110 kt peak, 95 kt LF

The regional hurricane models started hinting at this yesterday but there’s a solid chance of a cat 4 peak, especially with the still improving presentation. Would like to see more pressure falls continuing for that to happen but this hot tower might do it we’re roughly 10 hours or so from landfall and this hasn’t peaked. I’m growing doubtful of significant weakening given trends this morning. Hurricane models also show this being much stronger on the coast than yesterday.I think the continued easterly motion and increase in speed is the cause.

Well i didn’t expect it but somehow we got a picturesque hurricane out if this. Clearly very powerful looking at satellite. Beast

As for the football “controversy” noted, the earlier arrival time brings the worst weather in Alabama and Mississippi through before the games. That being said, I could see significant wind damage in Tuscaloosa tomorrow morning and the chance for widespread power outages. While weather during that game will be fine, the damage done prior would be my concern. 50-60 mph gusts will probably occur with the remnant eyewall wherever that ends up and combined with wet soils that should be pretty damaging. The games in Georgia and Carolina’s will be wet with severe weather and lightning causing possible delays. Given the magnitude of the game in Tuscaloosa and amount of people there it would probably be wise to maybe close the lots until 2 pm or something to keep people from trying to tailgate or drive during the worst weather when trees could potentially come down

The odds this maintains cat 3 into landfall are not low. Also the fast forward motion is going to aid in gusts. Very serious situation unfolding now. Hope everyone took evacuation orders seriously

GDM models absolutely destroyed the physics based models on this storm. How those euro and GFS runs where they had a weak TS still sitting off the Yucatán at this timeframe looking now?