NorthHillsWx

Yes- it’s just the ULL, coastal gets going too late. The ULL is easier to score but if it’s just that without coastal enhancement this will be a widespread 1-4” type system, which everyone will gladly take, but the larger totals that started this thread will not be realized

NGL, this is a delicate setup. The ULL likely will squeeze something out over the Carolina’s but relying on a late phase with timing and low placement for a bigger coastal storm is like finding a needle in a haystack, maps looks beautiful but in reality, this one has way too many variables to have a high chance of success.

GFS drops the hammer. Big run incoming

Can’t wait to see this place at the end of the week

Wow. We weren’t even close to that

IMO no global did great. EURO AI sniffed the northern track out earlier. We rag the Euro but with the start time pushed to Sunday it jumped all at once to the more northern track 4-5 days out, obviously it was way too warm but overall after it made that jump I felt it led the way. GFS was just horrible. It held on to the more suppressed look the longest and began a painful tick north for the last 3 days. Short range, NAM nailed it. Cannot say enough about how impressive a performance from NAM this was. For this storm, looking like a miller A, I wonder if models will be better given it may be more consolidated than the mess that was the last system

Anyone see official storm totals? I’m estimating maybe 3/4” sleet and 0.15” ZR here but that’s up for debate. Could’ve been less

Probably 15 or 20-1 ratio stuff right there

Front came through and NW wind got gusty. DP dropped from 32.7 to 28.1. Temp sitting at 33.1 wonder if it falls back below freezing for a bit

You’re one of us. Don’t ever let anyone tell you differently

Screw NE, haven’t they already had enough this season???

NAO staying negative and PNA staying positive for foreseeable future. Please let us score. We have been waiting for sustained blocking and western ridging like this for nearly a decade. Southern stream trying to come alive as Nina fades to black. This is not going to be a Nina February torch again

The melt has commenced here. 32.7 our road glacier already looking slushy

Yep. Was not the drought relief we thought we’d get either

In terms of a QPF underperformance, RAH predicted the triangle to get 1.25-1.50” QPF up until go time basically. RDU recorded 0.50” for the entire event

Was going to bed but we are back to moderate freezing drizzle here. 29.8

Sadly, given our early December snow this brought the seasonal snowfall (barely) over 1” here. Yay

Temp heading backwards. Never got close to freezing here in Raleigh. The micro glacier outside is enjoyable

Yall need to get therapy. Why are we putting ourselves through this again?

Roads are possibly the worst I’ve ever seen here. Sheet of ice on base and the grainy sleet caved to ZR at the end so really just a sheet of ice

As annoying/underwhelming as this storm was, it was incredibly interesting to watch the wedge do what we thought and then the breakdown was just as dramatic

30.4 here. Seems to have stopped rising been stuck for last 15 min

I think we finished around 3/4” IP and maybe 0.15-0.20” ZR. Underwhelming but impactful. Below freezing since 5 am yesterday though we have shot up to 30.1

I think we might have 0.50” QPF and half that fell in last hour

Walked outside- flipped back to sleet. I have no clue why or what’s going on