NorthHillsWx

I think we can wait until tomorrow to start a storm thread. Until last night there really wasn’t much consensus on there even being a storm would like it to remain on models for a full day before jumping into a thread personally. There isn’t really anything else going on besides in the mountain forum so nothing would be confused with this discussion at this time

Central/East NC and SC are in a really good spot at this juncture

UK was terrible. EURO was not great but it was mostly due to the energy being less consolidated than a bad trend with regards to placement, etc. think as someone else stated we’ve reached the stage of models jumping around. We’re still 4 days out our storms are never nailed down at this range. Watch those two closely we don’t want to separate into GFS vs the world

Alright west trend was great everyone gets a storm but it can kindly stop now that we’re in the bullseye lol

It’s the extreme range NAM but it was very similar to the 6z Euro. Looked like it was about to go boom if it went out 6 more hours.

If Raleigh gets a 6” storm this year I promise we’ll send everything else your way the rest of the the season

This checks out. Our local Mets in Triangle downplay every storm until it starts snowing (smart) but even they talk about snow droughts and the long one we ended last year as being far from the norm. Acting like Charlotte and Asheville are Columbia South Carolina doesn’t make it correct from a climo standpoint

6z Euro ticked up significantly but Is still a coastal hit, mostly. I think we can call this a trend without a doubt at this point

RAH pretty aggressive for that office: 00z GFS and ECMWF depict a more vigorous shortwave that swings across the Southeast US and Carolinas on Sunday, with a surface cyclone that develops off the coast of the Carolinas and moves NE. With very cold temperatures aloft by this point (and Sunday`s surface temperatures staying in the 30s at least based on the latest raw guidance), any precipitation that falls over central NC is likely to be snow, but the question is how much precipitation (if any) we actually receive. The GFS is sharper with the trough aloft compared to the ECMWF, resulting in snow across a larger portion of the area compared to the ECMWF which is more focused in the east. Regardless, considering nearly half of ECMWF ensembles and over half of GFS ensembles depict accumulating snow across the area, it bears watching. WPC QPF is light at this time but could increase if models converge on a surface low track closer to the coast.

EPS uptick at 6z was pretty drastic! Very good look this morning

GFS brings back the storm signal in that 9-10 day range we’ve seen

GFS is 2-4” from triad through triangle then 4-8” in the coastal plain with no mixing pretty much anywhere aka a pretty sweet storm as shown

6z GFS is a beaut for central/eastern NC

Being I’ll be in Morehead City this weekend for a family event this would be acceptable, but I’m always pulling for the triangle and my backyard. I really like being in the center of both GEFS and EPS means at this range for the triangle crowd. We’re in that 5-day range now so there is a lot of time for unhappy trends still but this isn’t a bad spot to be

UKIE is a bomb but much much warmer. It solves the precip problem but thermals are sketchy all the way to I-85. Given recent days of modeling I’ll take the look especially a juiced up solution

Could @GaWx score two years straight??? For all the work put in here, you deserve it. You have to be at least somewhat excited with both the GFS and Euro onboard for SE GA and a GEFS snow mean of around an inch not far away which in itself is crazy that far south

GFS, EURO, UKIE all onboard for Sunday. GEFS is honestly a thing of beauty at this range. CMC is too flat and too warm. I think right now if you’re east of I-85 you’re solidly in the game on Sunday. While north trends will occur and we’re seeing that it will be interesting to see how far north it can go given this is mostly NS energy rather than a big phase with southern stream. That being said, you have to like where the triangle is at this juncture. Epic trends across the best modeling overnight

If downeast NC and SC score major storms two winters in a row while the foothills remain blanked since 2022…

GFS trended towards euro but just not quite there.

Bottomed out at 28.6 (NWS forecast low 30) here and the farm got down to an impressive 23.1 (NWS forecast low 28)

6z euro was interesting for Sunday

Except this year it’ll just warm up and be dry. I don’t think it can turn wet again until La Niña is done, finished, cooked

Those of us who got 0.00” from last weekends rain are not going to be in good shape

And for an even wilder gradient, the temp sensor at the airport, roughly 1/2 mile from my station by the farm house, is currently at 35.8! So there is nearly 10 degree gradient in under 1 mile! I’ve seen this out there before and I am convinced my farm sits in the coldest spot in the county. On the car thermometer it is almost a given to drop 5+ degrees from the blacktop to the farmhouse on top of the drive. Very interesting evening, figured I’d share

Pretty big temp discrepancy right now between my house and my farm. We’re sitting at 35.4 at home right now and the farm near Louisburg has already fallen to 25.9. Almost a 10 degree different between the two counties. Ideal radiational cooling conditions in rural areas right now