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NorthHillsWx

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Everything posted by NorthHillsWx

  1. NorthHillsWx
    Pain like this caused is hard to put into words. I still have flashbacks. Waking up with a foot+ forecast and looking out to see bare grass was as bad as it gets even here
  2. NorthHillsWx
    If anyone is wondering why the Raleigh folks jumped off the cliff, this is why
  3. NorthHillsWx
    Over last 36 hours our posters in South Carolina should be thrilled with these trends
  4. NorthHillsWx
    GFS is an epic storm for Jacksonville
  5. NorthHillsWx
    GFS shaping up to be a good run…
  6. NorthHillsWx
    Consistently north. Kinda confusing as to why
  7. NorthHillsWx
    Last RGEM was good too. With CSMs those are the two you want in your corner vs NAM suite. Definitely would like to see them converge but those are what we want other short range guidance to trend towards today
  8. NorthHillsWx
    FV3 is how we win as a forum. Smooth transition from ULL to coastal, negative tilt, no screw zone. Still a little funky with surface depiction of SLP for coastal but my guess is it cranks right off cape lookout if this goes out 6-10 more hours. That’s a pretty look for everyone
  9. NorthHillsWx
    FV3 looks nice across the forum. Looking like it goes negative tilt. That’s the key for the coastal
  10. NorthHillsWx
    Rug feels like it’s getting pulled in Raleigh area
  11. NorthHillsWx
    3k NAM would make foothills folks happy
  12. NorthHillsWx
    I hate to say it but we’re trending to getting stuck between the ULL snow and coastal. Not good.
  13. NorthHillsWx
    We’ve been significantly above forecast lows last couple mornings. Bottomed out at 25.5 yesterday (forecast was 20) and are stuck at 25.2 right now (forecast was 18). Made it to 39.2 yesterday
  14. NorthHillsWx
    WRAL going with 3-6” for most piedmont locations with 5-7+” for coastal areas
  15. NorthHillsWx
    It trended slightly south. It actually benefits you
  16. NorthHillsWx
    Not a bad run but a few concerning things. Shaved .1-.2” QPF for a lot of areas and though the snow maps don’t show it well you can see evidence of the dry slot as coastal takes over
  17. NorthHillsWx
    GFS big hit for coastal areas. Drier pretty much everywhere inland. Also has the dry slot over Raleigh
  18. NorthHillsWx
    GFS drier
  19. NorthHillsWx
    3k has a vicious dry slot Raleigh to coastal plain
  20. NorthHillsWx
    It’s been showing up to varying degrees on different runs across most modeling. If you’re between Greensboro and Greenville that is this storms *potential* fail mode
  21. NorthHillsWx
    Yep that is my concern. It is why I posted. It’s damned close to triangle areas and would be an absolute kick in the nads to get 1” with 8”+ on either side
  22. NorthHillsWx
    Gotta say, that coastal plain dry slot is concerning. One of these analog storms, cannot remember which, did that bad over central NC. Starting to see it on most modeling. Could really screw someone in this setup as the coastal takes over
  23. NorthHillsWx
    Raleigh folks punching air if that happened after a week of foot+ runs on everything
  24. NorthHillsWx
    NAM with more positive tilt. This run isn’t going to do it I don’t believe
  25. NorthHillsWx
    Yall- Stop posting this map without context. Please look at the time. This is only 1/2 way through the storm for central NC, less for coastal
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