NorthHillsWx
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Everything posted by NorthHillsWx
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HAFS-B has gone from a decapitated, essentially nor Easter, landfall to a cat 3 with eyewall intact as it crosses the coast. Buckle up coastal residents
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Think they are awaiting recon but that is almost undeniably a major at the moment. I’d venture to guess recon emphatically concludes the same
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What a tough forecast. You have an intensifying likely major hurricane on final approach and are banking on a decapitation to occur in next 12 hours while the system is still intensifying at the moment. Wouldn’t want to be the one sending that messaging. NHC is doing a fantastic job with it. I still think this weakens to cat 1 by landfalll but NHC noted explicitly they are expecting a high end cat 2 when it crosses the coast now
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Eye coming into radar view of KEVX and KMOB now snd it looks very strong
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Also has it pretty much on the coast at 100 mph now
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Bet this is close to major already
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Next recon will be telling.
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I’m going with an overnight/morning peak of 105 kts and a LF at 80 kts
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Regional hurricane models had a large uptick at 18z for overnight intensity. Really wouldn’t be shocked at all to see a major overnight. Also, this is never going to be a photographic hurricane, too much shear for that
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Easily the best satellite presentation of the system’s life right now. How spicy does it want to get overnight?
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Very impressive ring of convection developing around the…. Eye…. Yes we have a legit eye now! Appears to be making another leap
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FL supported 80 kts but they noted tail Doppler found slightly higher winds around them enough to justify the increase. With organization once again looking better there’s nothing to argue why further increases wouldn’t be expected tonight as well
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Not a bad looking storm at all!
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Yep. Core is there and it will be moving over slightly warmer waters too. Diurnal max will be the max for this system. Imo 95-105 kts is attainable
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Recon seems supportive of 80 kts, closing in on cat 2 at a much more modest rate today
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Looks like a legit eye to me but it’s only cleared out bc the convection waned and isn’t overshooting it from the SW I believe. Looks legit now
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My expectation for most of the piedmont is 1" but I would not be surprised in the coastal convection robbed even more moisture and there is a screw zone of like 1/2" between here and PTI
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Been on the same pattern since yesterday of convection really dying off during diurnal minimum but coming back with a vengeance overnight
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Very impressive structure especially given the shear. If it maintains the current blow up of storms during the convective minimum that could allow significant intensification
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Winds catching up to the pressure falls. Wouldn’t surprise me if recon found a cat 2 this morning. RI since yesterday morning in spite of shear. 40 mph increase since this time yesterday.
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oh dear lord here we go again
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Significant strengthening ongoing this pass
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Incredible organization since this morning’s flight. The inner core is well on its way to becoming established. Very tight core too
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Very good chance of severe weather across the south given the combination of a tropical system interacting with a strong jet and dry air shooting in the backside. Probably a tornado outbreak for the south
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Hate seeing that convection showing up on the coast, that typically screws us in these tropical setups. Ive seen this dozens of times with a tropical system going west of the apps retrograding into a large non-tropical low where days of heavy rain modeled ends up as a singular line of strong storms while the coast gets inches of rain and the convection sits there. This is not a great setup for prolonged rain in the piedmont of NC. Eastern slopes of mountains will get pummeled though
