NorthHillsWx
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Everything posted by NorthHillsWx
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Might be starting to see some of that frictional convergence at play now with the tightening core
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Improvement on IR imagery is remarkable over just the last 2 hours
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Starting to see some barbs approaching hurricane force. Obviously these are at height but this is probably a 50-55 kt system based on radar data alone
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Yep, was looking forward to one more. Radar has RAPIDLY improved on north side too. Me thinks RI might be occurring. Crazy cool processes to watch on radar. For the talk earlier of no defined core, IR and radar both show it quickly blossoming. Lightning in southern quad is a definitive sign of strengthening too. Lets see how quickly it ramps up
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This next pass could see some very significant intensification if these rapid increases in radar velocities are sustained and sampled
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Some 60 kt velocities now showing up from LCH, recon finally found 50+ kt FL winds. Probably a 45 kt storm now, still strengthening
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Yep, for the first time that looks like a real nascent eyewall. It is not just low topped convection. If that wraps up this will obviously strengthen quicker. It is very obvious now though that the system is in a strengthening phase.
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Recon finally starting to see winds come up, correlating with a flare up over center and increased radar velocities. The strengthening has begun
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They've increased 20 kts in last 20 minutes in SW part of circulation. This could be the much-awaited strengthening showing up. Definitely something to watch. Some 50-55 kt barbs showing up now. Once again I think H is too much to ask for but this likely does strengthen into LF as a mod-strong TS
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Think this one had some sticker shock to Wx Twitter being it has had a very impressive radar appearance for a weak system but clearly it is still not a mature circulation and is in the formative stages. Given 1 more day this would 100% become a hurricane and possibly more, but the jump from TD to hurricane organization wise is huge. IR paints the real picture here where there is no sustained core. It’s close but out of time. 50kts remains my call. Personally I am shocked NHC went with a hurricane watch
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LMAO it’s true, this thing would likely be significantly less impactful than some of the Ohio valley derechos we’ve seen this summer even if it became a hurricane
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First pass of recon shows no notable pressure drop or uptick in winds
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Can’t say I’ve ever seen a hurricane watch for a 35 kt system roughly 50 miles from landfall
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Radar looks like a system about to explode, that is a very tight circulation with more uniform banding around it. As I said yesterday we will be posting that it’s lucky this doesn’t have more time over water. I’m still thinking 50 kt landfall, it would take a serious convective burst ASAP to approach hurricane status, not sure it’s gonna happen. Cool system
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I like NHC call if around 50 kts landfall. Don’t think it has time for hurricane intensity unless it can throw up some serious overnight convection, but the overall organization and small circulation definitely favors intensification. That dry air to the north could choke off development, that needs to be watched, but otherwise it has a good look overall
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Pretty serious organizational trend ongoing. Would not shock me to see some significant strengthening soon. This might be one we are posting about “thankfully not having more time over water”. Outflow looks well established and storms are clearly aligning the MLC and newly formed SLC. Starting to see winds ramp up on buoy and oil rig obs too
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Latest HWRF says our first hurricane of 2026 will make landfall on the Tx/La border about this time tomorrow...
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One other thing about this system that lends to the idea of it becoming a TS is frictional convergence and the shape of the coastline. This area of coastline is well known for tightening up weak systems on approach. To me this is a lock for our 5th short lived TS…
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2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season
NorthHillsWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Tropical Headquarters
I would be shocked if the season didn’t produce a hurricane though I think the odds of an MDR hurricane are pretty low. Gulf and SW Atlantic are the 2 places I’m watching this month and for the rest of the season -
Good call for NHC. Center is too broad at this time for a classification and plane hasn’t found any winds over 20 mph but the organization trend warrants PTC. Not far off but also not there yet
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Crazy variance across the state in rainfall totals this month
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Amazing what 40 kts of shear will do to ya. “Dolly” has passed through the wall of doom and entered a more favorable environment but not much left. Models have backed off again. If something were to happen I’d expect some steady flare up north of the islands today but odds of redevelopment are low
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Looks pretty broad/open on south side. That mid level feature looks more impressive than what’s under the hood. This is why NHC waits for solid data before designating systems even close to land. Could see PTC at 11 tho
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A light breeze based on that pass
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Ghost of Dolly really feeling that shear now
