Pain like this caused is hard to put into words. I still have flashbacks. Waking up with a foot+ forecast and looking out to see bare grass was as bad as it gets even here
Last RGEM was good too. With CSMs those are the two you want in your corner vs NAM suite. Definitely would like to see them converge but those are what we want other short range guidance to trend towards today
FV3 is how we win as a forum. Smooth transition from ULL to coastal, negative tilt, no screw zone. Still a little funky with surface depiction of SLP for coastal but my guess is it cranks right off cape lookout if this goes out 6-10 more hours. That’s a pretty look for everyone
We’ve been significantly above forecast lows last couple mornings. Bottomed out at 25.5 yesterday (forecast was 20) and are stuck at 25.2 right now (forecast was 18). Made it to 39.2 yesterday
Not a bad run but a few concerning things. Shaved .1-.2” QPF for a lot of areas and though the snow maps don’t show it well you can see evidence of the dry slot as coastal takes over
It’s been showing up to varying degrees on different runs across most modeling. If you’re between Greensboro and Greenville that is this storms *potential* fail mode
Yep that is my concern. It is why I posted. It’s damned close to triangle areas and would be an absolute kick in the nads to get 1” with 8”+ on either side
Gotta say, that coastal plain dry slot is concerning. One of these analog storms, cannot remember which, did that bad over central NC. Starting to see it on most modeling. Could really screw someone in this setup as the coastal takes over