NorthHillsWx
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Everything posted by NorthHillsWx
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LMAO it’s true, this thing would likely be significantly less impactful than some of the Ohio valley derechos we’ve seen this summer even if it became a hurricane
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First pass of recon shows no notable pressure drop or uptick in winds
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Can’t say I’ve ever seen a hurricane watch for a 35 kt system roughly 50 miles from landfall
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Radar looks like a system about to explode, that is a very tight circulation with more uniform banding around it. As I said yesterday we will be posting that it’s lucky this doesn’t have more time over water. I’m still thinking 50 kt landfall, it would take a serious convective burst ASAP to approach hurricane status, not sure it’s gonna happen. Cool system
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I like NHC call if around 50 kts landfall. Don’t think it has time for hurricane intensity unless it can throw up some serious overnight convection, but the overall organization and small circulation definitely favors intensification. That dry air to the north could choke off development, that needs to be watched, but otherwise it has a good look overall
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Pretty serious organizational trend ongoing. Would not shock me to see some significant strengthening soon. This might be one we are posting about “thankfully not having more time over water”. Outflow looks well established and storms are clearly aligning the MLC and newly formed SLC. Starting to see winds ramp up on buoy and oil rig obs too
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Latest HWRF says our first hurricane of 2026 will make landfall on the Tx/La border about this time tomorrow...
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One other thing about this system that lends to the idea of it becoming a TS is frictional convergence and the shape of the coastline. This area of coastline is well known for tightening up weak systems on approach. To me this is a lock for our 5th short lived TS…
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2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season
NorthHillsWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Tropical Headquarters
I would be shocked if the season didn’t produce a hurricane though I think the odds of an MDR hurricane are pretty low. Gulf and SW Atlantic are the 2 places I’m watching this month and for the rest of the season -
Good call for NHC. Center is too broad at this time for a classification and plane hasn’t found any winds over 20 mph but the organization trend warrants PTC. Not far off but also not there yet
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Crazy variance across the state in rainfall totals this month
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Amazing what 40 kts of shear will do to ya. “Dolly” has passed through the wall of doom and entered a more favorable environment but not much left. Models have backed off again. If something were to happen I’d expect some steady flare up north of the islands today but odds of redevelopment are low
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Looks pretty broad/open on south side. That mid level feature looks more impressive than what’s under the hood. This is why NHC waits for solid data before designating systems even close to land. Could see PTC at 11 tho
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A light breeze based on that pass
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Ghost of Dolly really feeling that shear now
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Picked up a staggering 0.01” sending my MTD to 1.52”
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Last chance of rain likely for the month today and I’m sitting about 3” below normal (just 1.52”). If we don’t get a flood today (unlikely) then that will be 11 of last 12 months BN precipitation here. Only saving grace is we received about 4 months worth of rain in July!
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We’ll see what it looks like tomorrow morning, it is just now moving into the TUTT. It actually found a microscopic break in the worst shear last 2 days but it is heading into a wall of 30-40 kt shear my guess is NHC is banking on not much surviving, we will see
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Dolly gets the axe and then immediately says “hold my beer”
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Shield mostly held but had a couple hours of light rain. 0.15” brings MTD to 1.51”
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Holding strong so far. Just 0.01” here
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The aren't, they are calling for post-tropical aka open wave
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Pretty wild the NHC had to include this in its discussion this morning: The timing of the use of the name Dolly for this storm is purely coincidental. Tropical storm and hurricane names for the North Atlantic Basin originate from six pre-determined rotating lists established by the World Meteorological Organization Region IV Hurricane Committee. The name Dolly replaced Diana after the 1990 hurricane season and was first used in 1996.
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The relief from the heat was nice, as were the low DPs. Back up into the 70's with current DP. Looks like another extended period AN just as football season kicks off, joy
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Funny, getting classified as the shear leaves it a naked swirl, whereas it was likely a TS most of the night and looked much, much better
