NorthHillsWx

The lack of a southern jet is a semi-permanent feature that’s developed through the summer. Models looked like that was flipping coming into the month but nothing has changed. Until we get something coming from the southern stream the ripping northern and pac jet is going to kill us regardless of what cold is available. The ongoing drought is all you need to know about our southern stream energy through the fall. That’s going to be the biggest fail mechanism this winter I’m sure of it

I don’t think a lot appreciated last winter enough bc we were missing the “big storm” but we avoided can kicking and essentially had threats to track almost the entire winter period and had a warning level snow in February. Long ways to go

Not even sure a 6”+ event is possible here anymore…

What are your thoughts of duration of the warmup/pattern change?

35.8 for the low this morning. Currently a blustery 45

GFS mid to upper 70s Christmas Day. Euro gets a small front through on Christmas but 70s on Christmas Eve. Yuck

27.4 this morning, 58.2 this afternoon. Nice day

Someone saw Santa’s list early…

And you got called out for being a naysayer at the time…

Having cold air on our side of the globe only works if there’s a mechanism to get it down to us. PNA and western ridge orientation, and -NAO much more important. As you said, this flat NS dominated regime with a progressive flow wasn’t going to work for anyone wanting a big storm. We were simply avoiding torches and wasting cold

Yea I agree, this is the first real can kick of the winter season unfortunately

I think it’s a matter of how long, not if it warms up Christmas week. PNA was progged to go positive, but that has since reversed and looks to stay negative. Cold dumping into west will set any pattern change back, thinking we have to step back down into a cooler weather pattern after Christmas and into the new year.

Mondays winter weather system only dropped 0.09” of QPF here, of which roughly half fell as snow. Given snowfall totals were in the 0.3-0.4” and some was wasted on initial melting, snowfall ratios were right about in the 10-1” range here.

High of 39.2 and low of 26.4

I’ll be honest at about 5:00 yesterday afternoon I didn’t think there was a snowballs chance in hell we’d see drone pics of Raleigh with snow cover today but man those are beautiful

I put as much stock in the day 16 GFS as I put in a preseason college football ranking… That being said there is a signal for a warmup that week but with MJO stuck in phase 8 I would be shocked if it was anything but a brief warmup before a front. We will see

GFS says get the sunscreen out and enjoy your 70s on Christmas

Still just below 32 at 11:15, 31.8

Some places in southern Va have hit their climo average before December 10

Saturday has been a crazy flip! Here the GFS went from a projected high around freezing here on the 6z run Sunday to a high of near 60 on today’s 6z!!!

That would explain the slightly higher totals Raleigh through Franklin county. Raleigh proper definitely got more than the airport and lake

It’s possible it was a little more last night but I didn’t measure. Most everything non paved is covered so it’s really pretty regardless

Definitely over estimated the amount of snow on the ground last night. Measured just 0.30” this morning, I’ll blame first snow excitement lol. 26.8 out and very pretty regardless. Southern Va got a serious jackpot, swath of 6-8” from the mountains to the coast. Great storm gor them

We’ve seen headfakes regarding modeled warmth several times this fall, but Christmas week seems to be trending warmer and warmer across ensembles, ops, everything. Hopium can only get you so far! I think the pattern relaxation occurs that week but how long it lasts is tbd. With no southern stream energy flying around and a continued parade of Canadian clippers a reset might not be the worse thing bc no one’s scoring a big storm in this current regime without the motherload of luck (looking at you southern VA folks)

Id be willing to say Louisburg has at least an inch judging by my trail cams. Possibly more…