NorthHillsWx

Yes, and in my experience these are not modeled well, partially why precip tends to always begin early. Would not shock me to see this look as we get closer that could at least give areas some flakes that aren’t modeled now but unfortunately this wouldn’t amount to much

This. Need some energy out ahead of the low before warm nose arrives

Wedge on euro is much stronger looking

I fully expect with CAMs that we will start to tick colder in wedge areas over the next 48 hours (because, always). Will that be enough for more sleet? We will see

Miller A’s, once you figure out phasing, are typically much easier to forecast and have much less of a transition zone. This weekend is a nightmare I hope we never repeat on here

Which way it headed north so we rain or south so Florida scores again?

Maybe us Raleigh folks will have our power back on before we get buried next weekend

GFS Warmer due to weaker high, flips some over to rain but not after damage is done, literally

It tries so hard to keep @BornAgain13 snow for the first 6-8 hours

And more QPF

ICON is THE worst case model now. CAD locked in to point it doesn’t modify through event and mid levels actually warmer so it looks strongly like freezing rain, not sleet, for most

Updates after 24 hours: Triangle: TR of snow, only around 1” sleet, .25-.30” ZR (going with less QPF than we thought yesterday and warmer profiles) Triad- not much change but bringing IP down to 1-3” because less QPF Foothills- reducing SN to TR-1”, IP 2-4”, 0.10-0.30” ZR more south. Thinking more ZR due to warmer profiles. Still thinking 0.10-0.25” ZR Charlotte- TR SN, 1-2” IP, 0.25-0.30” ZR. Pretty much untouched but less QPF NC Coastal Plain- significantly less ice east of 95. Stripe of 0.25-0.5” between there and Raleigh. High end is lesser bc less QPF and warmer profiles Upstate- almost no changes. Maybe bring IP down to 1-3” because less QPF SC low country-Midlands-NC Sandhills- this is where biggest changes are. IP MAYBE up to 1/2” north. Tr-0.25” ZR for midlands but Sandhills could see up to 0.5” ZR. This area has bust potential to be much less because the entire area could switch to rain after way less QPF below freezing ATL- big changes here too. 0”-TR IP, up to 0.25” ZR mostly NE suburbs with less I’m town. Limited impacts compared to thoughts yesterday. NE GA north and east of ATL will be similar to my upstate prediction

What’s crazy is how much slower this system is. It’s Thursday morning and a couple days ago we were thinking Friday night start time. Now it’s looking like it could be early Sunday morning? I don’t see much before 06z

If this “busts” for the Carolina’s from an ice perspective the Mets who hyped this are going to have to have a reckoning. The snow idea is gone but this is an example where withholding anything but saying “potential for significant winter weather” would save a lot of egg on faces if this doesn’t pan out, which is a distinct possibility right now.

I keep thinking this. If this goes west we miss out on the initial band of WAA precip. If the only precip we get is from the firehose, with peak warm nose, the rain will be warmer when it falls before freezing and heavy rates equal runoff. We would likely avoid a serious ice storm for most of the forum. That notion didn’t seem possible until today

Thanks, I’m mobile this morning so haven’t been able to look too hard

Also less QPF. Might save us here in Raleigh

Why were people saying the euro trended south? It looks like it if anything remained the same and eroded the wedge faster especially on eastern side

I’m ready to get hurt again

No, from a public perception standpoint this is atrocious. I’ve had friends and family even THIS MORNING ask me if I think we will “really get a foot of snow”. So many people see a post on social media or use those worthless weather apps and it just leads to confusion. People should be prepping for an ice storm, days without power, no heat. Instead half the public thinks this will be a big snow STILL

I’m more talking the jump to a miller B that sends a surface low to East Tennessee. GFS up until yesterday never sniffed that. I expect most modeling to tick south today and CAD areas to tick a bit colder just because that happens with every CAD storm.

It goes back to the notion, if it can’t rain why in the world did we think it can snow lol. NAM at range is typically useless besides maybe looking at thermals but another thing with this storm- we’re still more than 48 hours out here. Nothing brings precip in till after sunset Saturday now. At the rate it’s going it may be further delayed if these north trends keep happening and the WAA push goes to DC

It’s crazy, yea it played in La La land too in the 5-7 day range but euro sniffed something out 4 days out, made that dramatic jump and here we are, everything has slowly worked into the euro camp. Once again, the GFS is just a terrible model. The Euro under 5 days is just a beacon of despair around here. If it’s bad, it ain’t going back the other way

Well now looks like the cards left on the table are crippling ice storm or non event