NorthHillsWx

Hopefully the euro holds its ground. What we have going for us atm that kinda gives us some wiggle room is a very strong and well placed high (thank the lord). This is the absolute opposite of last weekend, we do not want anything to dig further west and we want very little amplification until the coast. I’m worried by these clown maps with 10” south of 24” luring folks into thinking that is still good. Usually that means as we get closer and resolution increases you can cut those totals by 2/3 south of the max area due to mix. Not trying to be negative but we need to be reasonable that a lot of the current data points would indicate south of VA is unlikely to see a pure snowstorm at this time. That does not mean it cannot be a big storm in these areas and I’m not even throwing amounts out but that’s my first call.

If modeled correctly it would be exceedingly rare like the 1988 storm as it is tough to slide that much energy without some consolidation. CMC is the alternative scenario, much more amped and less duration, still a large storm. We really want less consolidation and kinda what the 18z gfs had or most on here mix.

My first guess on this event is a Virginia/mid Atlantic special. Think the northern half of NC has a high chance of snow but mix will limit accumulation and more so as you head south. South Carolina and north GA would see some level of an ice storm, tbd on severity. Ensembles and ops seem to be converging on roughly a climo mix line with the one caveat being substantially colder than normal BL temps due to perfect placement of a strong high. IMO I think a very heavy sleet storm is possible for a larger than normal area in NC

I don’t buy the duration. Seen this so many times on modeling where energy consolidates either on front or back and it trends much shorter duration in time. Would be astonishing to see but I really doubt that is reality

This is like a repeat of December 2018 but much colder at surface

If I’m in Virginia I’m feeling as good as possible at this range. NC will likely have mix issues and it’s hard to argue climo or 85 line as a best guess for now where mix line sets up

If the cold air is as advertised someone might get a 4-6” sleet bomb somewhere out of this if that look on euro verifies

AI models did well this past weekend with temps. Different setup entirely but both kept central NC in 40s for most of storm while others were way too quick to cool

Finished with 0.72” yesterday which was a nice surprise given the severe drought we are now in

All snow, coming down hard. Temp 33.6

Almost all snow at home on the ring cam

Definitely rain snow mix in Raleigh now

Down to 36.7 here. Swear there is some frozen on the windshield driving around few min ago. We might hit 0.75” of rain today definitely over performing that department. Thing most in central nc are heading to flakes before this ends

Too little too late but temp is starting to crash here. Got up to 42.5 and in the last hour have crashed to 39.4 with stronger north wind noticeable outside. 0.47” rain since midnight

Approaching 1/2” of rain, great soaking rainfall much much needed

Lots of bright banding over triangle right now. Sad thing is we did actually end up with solid QPF, 0.25” so far and raining moderate. Cold chasing moisture rarely works but Georgia is the perfect example why- areas south enough where cold didn’t have to go over mountains are snowing. Pretty textbook look into why it’s 40 and raining here but 32 with 1-3” there

1-2” over almost all of central NC, close to 3” max

0z EURO snows in central NC again.

12k NAM is beautiful for same areas. It actually starts to crank a coastal. 2-4” se GA through central NC

NAM 3k was a solid 2-3” stripe from SE GA through central NC

Down to 38.9 here

Maybe the sacrificial cliff dives yesterday appeased the snow gods

Is anything *not* showing snow for Raleigh now?

Might see an egg on Webbs face

Euro back in the game central NC. BL colder bc of precip and 1-2” snow