NorthHillsWx

GFS drags ZR line to wake but doesn’t look like it makes it to Raleigh proper. Just a pounding sleet storm

GFS ticked north slightly, but mostly unchanged

@eyewall the 6” snow probability for Raleigh is at 0% on the 0z EPS for Raleigh. We’re totally cooked

ICON much more amped. Big jump north again. Basically no snow in NC even at border. Holds the wedge, crippling ice.

I know why we failed: we believed in snow maps actually showing snow in the NC foothills. That should have been the first red flag models were out to lunch

And show HAS to be falling

After what just transpired for this weekend I don’t even know why tracking from more than 3 days out is even worthwhile

Anyone wanna start a thread for the February 2 storm??

Sadly, why this is happening is easy to explain. Models have been moving the trough further and further west for two days. What that does is twofold: dumps cold air further west and leads to an earlier and full capture of the Baja low. Result is an earlier phase, and the SER can flex again with the trough axis to the west. This is textbook coastal fail mode for the SE. The surprising thing to me is simply how poorly this was modeled. We’re talking a 500 mile shift since yesterday morning. With very good blocking setting up, I’m still somewhat skeptical of this cutting straight into the high, but we’re walking a fail line between ice and rain at this point if these solutions are realistic with the NS trough axis. I did not think I’d see a Baja low phase in Texas/oklahoma 24 hours ago but that’s what the modeling consensus shows us

Webb throwing up the white flag https://x.com/webberweather/status/2013860089803804790?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g

Anyone know how the overnight models runs went?

Some of the trends on the EURO are the most stunning reversals I have ever seen. Parts of north Georgia have gone from the mid 20s to the mid 60s in 4 runs. It’s the king, but that is hard to take in. I am very skeptical the wedge just evaporates.

We have now crossed the line where the storm mode has changed. We won because energy was sliding under a 1040 mb high. This is now a super amped coastal. Even the big cities north of us are at risk of mix now if this is the case, like any nor Easter, BAM was right… That being said, be wary of the wedge eroding this fast, that’s a 1040, not a 1026 sitting in prime CAD position. EURO notoriously scours the wedge too quick. While hope for a snowstorm is fading and probably the least likely outcome for anyone on the board, I don’t see a way around a 2002-like ice event somewhere in the Carolina’s. Do not let your guard down, this can be a memorable storm, but for ALL the wrong reasons. What a freaking nightmare of a hobby

Frigid at BL. Not much change upstairs. QPF bomb

Didn’t ATL get a 4-6” storm like… last year?

Everyone says they’re going to bed but I know damned well this crew is staying up for the 0z suite

Fixed it for you

Thoughts and prayers SE folk

It would be pretty funny after all the hype if this ends up just being cold rain with a little mix

Bourbon is broken out only for victory. Tonight we open the vodka

Good news is 2-3” of rain will be great for the drought! Especially after it melts off all the fallen trees

When the GFS prints out 35” of snow and then the euro shows next to nothing for same spot in NC 3 days out it tends to do that to people

For those just stopping by I can save you pages of reading: The cliff diving page being hot is all you need to know about “happy hour”

I’m legitimately worried the battleground sets up in Virginia and we’re fighting for 32 degrees so the lights stay on

With that storm track I’d be shocked if it didn’t go to regular old cold rain Raleigh-east