NorthHillsWx

Everyone always laughs at GEFS and GFS but has it been any worse that other models for next week? Look at the euro, 5 days ago it was honking the horn for a cold and stormy pattern in the east and everyone was excited and now it’s gone absolute torch on everyone. I’m not defending GEFS, but it never really bought that week like other modeling did even though it was wishy washy. There’s something to be said if a model suite locks in consistently to a period then pulls the rug vs one that can’t make its mind up on same period. Both suck for us, but king euro failed miserably on this period. Mid month and beyond I don’t even care about yet we can’t even get 2 weeks somewhat accurate. Signs are looking 2021-ish to me with pattern change that never happens but I’m just a lurker on pattern recognition

It’s unfortunate there just isn’t enough cold air around Saturday because that slider has trended significantly wetter with a very favorable track for a cross state NC storm. Sad really

Same here. 23.5 was low. Proper winter morning

AI GFS has consistently shown a ripe pattern but I’m not sure it’s the one we want to hug. Maybe it scores a coup here. When EPS went south the other forum has turned into an endless stream of of AIGFS posts because it’s been a very good look

To me, today was perfect. High right at 40 with sun. Maybe I’m sick in the head, but 40 with sun is like a crispy warm to me. Love it

I’m retiring from this hobby, there’s too much pain. Between this winter and the Clemson football season it’s been pretty tough on the soul

This is perfect

Give me a loaded STJ and I don’t care about blocking or anything else the more systems you get even in a crap pattern maybe one will time it right. At this point there might be 2 total storm systems in the southeast this month and the odds one of them produces snow are minimal at best! I know it’s one run but damn everything is dry as a bone

Happy hour GFS literally drops no QPF the ENTIRE RUN in central NC! Cold isn’t the main issue!!!

Neither the GFS nor the EURO have meaningful QPF in central NC until January 14!

12z GFS drops a total of 0.00” QPF on RDU through January 9

Nope. I think a lot of Mets who broke and honked the big storm horn for that 4-11 timeframe are going to be looking for excuses. This has become a punt like we saw 2019-21 where the pattern change keeps getting delayed and then even those drinking hopium look up and it’s March. I’m trying not to be pessimistic but when you’re pointing to indices and analogs and trying to pull something that will happen IF this ridge moves or that so and so and it’s all 2 weeks down the road with models showing nothing positive and it’s January, you’re in a bad spot. We should be seeing fantasy storms and we’re not. It’s not even getting us fantasy rains.

Someone posted this on another forum so I’m not standing by it as factual but there’s a likelihood this month finishes with the most -NAO monthly value since 2010. To show for that most areas are going to finish NN to slightly BN for temps and below normal for snowfall. And during this period much of the south also one of their if not their hottest December stretch in history. To me this speaks volumes, blocking is AWESOME but with an uncooperative pacific you’re just not going to win. Everyone always gets excited when NAO tanks but as long as Alaska is frozen and that Aleutian high won’t budge, dislodging the pacific trough is going to be tough and you’re going to end up with exactly what we got

I’m not giving up but I never thought the front end was going to produce there just hadnt been a strong storm signal. It seemed DOA to me even if cold was available. We need to keep blocking for mid to late month and pray PNA actually goes positive which is questionable now

We made it to 67 yesterday late in the day so we had a 40 degree drop from 3 pm to our low of 26.6 at around 7 am. That’s impressive

26.6 this morning for the low, finally felt like winter again

My concern with the 8-10th period has been and will continue to be the lack of solutions showing storms. The means regressed significantly last night and even those had been driven by a couple members with a big storm vs a lot of members showing something or something close. It just hasn’t gathered much modeling support and in the 10-day timeframe you’d really want to at least start seeing ensemble support for a valid threat

I think that Jan 8-11 period is cooked. We cannot lose the mid-late month cold. We are punting prime climo now

Euro caved to GFS- east coast trough replaced with a ridge and blocking evaporates. Ugly ugly ugly

Horrific trends overnight on models and ensembles. Blocking lost and thoughts of west coast ridging replaced with west coast trough. Going to be an interesting day to see where we go from here or if this was more than a blip

We had just done a thinning at our family tree farm in Vance county and that ice storm wiped out most of the pines. Was devastating for the tree rotation ended up having to do a salvage cut and start over, 20 years in the hole

AI GFS with a big winter storm on the 10-11th

What a crazy torch! That Charlotte graphic above is mind boggling

Been a brutal shut the blinds stretch but signs of hope at least. If the expected +PNA -NAO actually sets up I’d expect to start seeing fantasy storms soon

Surprised it’s not more active in here. Good overnight trends for January.