NorthHillsWx

Poor. Very very poor

I hope so. The alternative is less sleet and up to 0.75” in that darker area. Overall agreed though

Nope. We’re cooked on significant snow. Forums praying for sleet

Devastating

Not sure anyone posted but CMC was a little south and a touch colder. FV3 gets precip in earlier (the finger) and because of that it starts as light snow for most of NC. Looks a hair colder that other modeling west of here too

I KNOW a lot of that west of 85 will be sleet. For triangle folks, this to me would mean at least 0.5” and up to 0.75” of accrual if it was light instead of heavy. As in, December 2002 redux

It’s not going to get scoured. I think you see everything trend colder at ground level. It’s already stronger than 99% of wedges we’ve seen in last 10 years and usually they only model stronger as you get closer. And none of them were fed by a 1040+

Right direction being an ice apocalypse in the triangle?

Yes, and in my experience these are not modeled well, partially why precip tends to always begin early. Would not shock me to see this look as we get closer that could at least give areas some flakes that aren’t modeled now but unfortunately this wouldn’t amount to much

This. Need some energy out ahead of the low before warm nose arrives

Wedge on euro is much stronger looking

I fully expect with CAMs that we will start to tick colder in wedge areas over the next 48 hours (because, always). Will that be enough for more sleet? We will see

Miller A’s, once you figure out phasing, are typically much easier to forecast and have much less of a transition zone. This weekend is a nightmare I hope we never repeat on here

Which way it headed north so we rain or south so Florida scores again?

Maybe us Raleigh folks will have our power back on before we get buried next weekend

GFS Warmer due to weaker high, flips some over to rain but not after damage is done, literally

It tries so hard to keep @BornAgain13 snow for the first 6-8 hours

And more QPF

ICON is THE worst case model now. CAD locked in to point it doesn’t modify through event and mid levels actually warmer so it looks strongly like freezing rain, not sleet, for most

Updates after 24 hours: Triangle: TR of snow, only around 1” sleet, .25-.30” ZR (going with less QPF than we thought yesterday and warmer profiles) Triad- not much change but bringing IP down to 1-3” because less QPF Foothills- reducing SN to TR-1”, IP 2-4”, 0.10-0.30” ZR more south. Thinking more ZR due to warmer profiles. Still thinking 0.10-0.25” ZR Charlotte- TR SN, 1-2” IP, 0.25-0.30” ZR. Pretty much untouched but less QPF NC Coastal Plain- significantly less ice east of 95. Stripe of 0.25-0.5” between there and Raleigh. High end is lesser bc less QPF and warmer profiles Upstate- almost no changes. Maybe bring IP down to 1-3” because less QPF SC low country-Midlands-NC Sandhills- this is where biggest changes are. IP MAYBE up to 1/2” north. Tr-0.25” ZR for midlands but Sandhills could see up to 0.5” ZR. This area has bust potential to be much less because the entire area could switch to rain after way less QPF below freezing ATL- big changes here too. 0”-TR IP, up to 0.25” ZR mostly NE suburbs with less I’m town. Limited impacts compared to thoughts yesterday. NE GA north and east of ATL will be similar to my upstate prediction

What’s crazy is how much slower this system is. It’s Thursday morning and a couple days ago we were thinking Friday night start time. Now it’s looking like it could be early Sunday morning? I don’t see much before 06z

If this “busts” for the Carolina’s from an ice perspective the Mets who hyped this are going to have to have a reckoning. The snow idea is gone but this is an example where withholding anything but saying “potential for significant winter weather” would save a lot of egg on faces if this doesn’t pan out, which is a distinct possibility right now.

I keep thinking this. If this goes west we miss out on the initial band of WAA precip. If the only precip we get is from the firehose, with peak warm nose, the rain will be warmer when it falls before freezing and heavy rates equal runoff. We would likely avoid a serious ice storm for most of the forum. That notion didn’t seem possible until today

Thanks, I’m mobile this morning so haven’t been able to look too hard