NorthHillsWx

We tend to suck a lot nowadays

Good trends across guidance for the 15-16th period. Storm signal is there

GFS with a 990 100 miles east of where we want it isn’t a bad spot to be 7 days out. AI similar and ICON is a mountains-Virginia major storm. Definitely a signal consolidating for that timeframe. Let’s see if trends continue with regards to phasing and trough placement

Any rain with this weekend storm system will be extremely beneficial. Severe drought has exploded in area across the southeast and now 1/3 of NC (up from less than 1% last week) is in the severe drought category. Western areas and mountains should do well but central piedmont and coastal plain look to whiff, again

This is one of the biggest winter punts I can remember. Since our little snow events December 8-16 we will have punted till likely January 15 at the earliest. 30 days of winter without a single threat to track is brutal, even for here

74.1, this is ridiculous

0z Euro was beautiful in piedmont areas

Nice at least seeing digital snow it’s been so long I forgot what that was like

Low of 35.2 high of 67.8 honestly I went to the farm at lunch and it was beautiful. Wish we didn’t have so many warm days in a row but one every now and then isn’t the worst

I jumped off the cliff, crashed out, and landed in nothing but hopium below. This hobby won’t let you go that easily

Euro is struggling to find anything in the STJ and is shearing out everything coming from the NW. very Nina look. Very dry. We will continue to see the dry looks unless we find a way to eject some energy east from the Baja lows that keep showing up. What has/continues to worry me is the complete and utter failure of the southern stream and wave breaking even if we get a decent PNA ridge. One would think some energy would slide under it as the NS is constricted but we keep seeing cutoff Baja lows that never move east

I’ll take southern stream energy flying around under a Rocky Mountain ridge. Been a long time this year to finally see some of that showing up even in fantasy

FINALLY a happy happy hour

At least that period looks “interesting”. As said above, VERY few times do we get anything that isn’t at least hinted on by models in advance and that is especially true this year with the total lack of any systems at all even in warm stretches

12z GFS tried to get some southern stream energy involved towards the end of the run a couple times. Decent look, I’ll take anything showing moisture

Not sure we make it to our mid 50s forecast high. Currently stuck at 38 with thick overcast

Hit 52 today. Currently running 7, yes SEVEN, degrees below RDU. 34, RDU just reported 41

One word describes short, medium, and long range: Dry

Yesterday’s rain really fell apart, only picked up 0.03” after models and forecasts had shown around 1/2” up to the day before. Got down to 25.4 last night with very heavy frost this morning. Hope we can get some snow at the end of the month the next week looks brutal for winter lovers.

We might be setting a record for fewest digital inches in southeast history this year. It’s so bad we can’t even pop random CMC fantasy snows

https://x.com/bam_weather/status/2007075997565284655?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g This is the tweet. I think we’re seeing all the signs that winter might not return in January. I wish I could be optimistic but nothing looks good on modeling and all the long range indicators are starting to throw red flags. I think a lot of Mets jumped the gun before Christmas

Weeklies were really good last year I’ll give them that but they’ve been useless this winter

Everyone always laughs at GEFS and GFS but has it been any worse that other models for next week? Look at the euro, 5 days ago it was honking the horn for a cold and stormy pattern in the east and everyone was excited and now it’s gone absolute torch on everyone. I’m not defending GEFS, but it never really bought that week like other modeling did even though it was wishy washy. There’s something to be said if a model suite locks in consistently to a period then pulls the rug vs one that can’t make its mind up on same period. Both suck for us, but king euro failed miserably on this period. Mid month and beyond I don’t even care about yet we can’t even get 2 weeks somewhat accurate. Signs are looking 2021-ish to me with pattern change that never happens but I’m just a lurker on pattern recognition

It’s unfortunate there just isn’t enough cold air around Saturday because that slider has trended significantly wetter with a very favorable track for a cross state NC storm. Sad really

Same here. 23.5 was low. Proper winter morning