NorthHillsWx

12z GFS drops a total of 0.00” QPF on RDU through January 9

Nope. I think a lot of Mets who broke and honked the big storm horn for that 4-11 timeframe are going to be looking for excuses. This has become a punt like we saw 2019-21 where the pattern change keeps getting delayed and then even those drinking hopium look up and it’s March. I’m trying not to be pessimistic but when you’re pointing to indices and analogs and trying to pull something that will happen IF this ridge moves or that so and so and it’s all 2 weeks down the road with models showing nothing positive and it’s January, you’re in a bad spot. We should be seeing fantasy storms and we’re not. It’s not even getting us fantasy rains.

Someone posted this on another forum so I’m not standing by it as factual but there’s a likelihood this month finishes with the most -NAO monthly value since 2010. To show for that most areas are going to finish NN to slightly BN for temps and below normal for snowfall. And during this period much of the south also one of their if not their hottest December stretch in history. To me this speaks volumes, blocking is AWESOME but with an uncooperative pacific you’re just not going to win. Everyone always gets excited when NAO tanks but as long as Alaska is frozen and that Aleutian high won’t budge, dislodging the pacific trough is going to be tough and you’re going to end up with exactly what we got

I’m not giving up but I never thought the front end was going to produce there just hadnt been a strong storm signal. It seemed DOA to me even if cold was available. We need to keep blocking for mid to late month and pray PNA actually goes positive which is questionable now

We made it to 67 yesterday late in the day so we had a 40 degree drop from 3 pm to our low of 26.6 at around 7 am. That’s impressive

26.6 this morning for the low, finally felt like winter again

My concern with the 8-10th period has been and will continue to be the lack of solutions showing storms. The means regressed significantly last night and even those had been driven by a couple members with a big storm vs a lot of members showing something or something close. It just hasn’t gathered much modeling support and in the 10-day timeframe you’d really want to at least start seeing ensemble support for a valid threat

I think that Jan 8-11 period is cooked. We cannot lose the mid-late month cold. We are punting prime climo now

Euro caved to GFS- east coast trough replaced with a ridge and blocking evaporates. Ugly ugly ugly

Horrific trends overnight on models and ensembles. Blocking lost and thoughts of west coast ridging replaced with west coast trough. Going to be an interesting day to see where we go from here or if this was more than a blip

We had just done a thinning at our family tree farm in Vance county and that ice storm wiped out most of the pines. Was devastating for the tree rotation ended up having to do a salvage cut and start over, 20 years in the hole

AI GFS with a big winter storm on the 10-11th

What a crazy torch! That Charlotte graphic above is mind boggling

Been a brutal shut the blinds stretch but signs of hope at least. If the expected +PNA -NAO actually sets up I’d expect to start seeing fantasy storms soon

Surprised it’s not more active in here. Good overnight trends for January.

An identical 72.8 as yesterday. At least it’s fun to get the kids outside playing with their presents. Picked up 0.12” in the morning

There are torches and then there’s what occurred today. Topped out at 72.8 but seeing the national maps makes you pause

Merry torchmas everyone! 70.3 how high do we go???

Ahh. The sweet smell of hopium has returned to the forum. Nature is healing

Thats one of the more impressive ZR maps I’ve seen

Anyone have access to IP/ZR accumulation maps for the fantasy storm on gfs, just for fun?

Nice looking at fantasy sleet storms past hour 300 than the endless fantasy torches we’ve seen over the last week

Enough snow to shovel my driveway

It was nice last year where everything just kept trending colder until verification

The biggest impact of the - PNA if we actually keep blocking will be lack of STJ energy. We’ll be relying on something coming from the NW to dig and slow bc there won’t be enhancement or energy from the southern stream or a phase. That’s just the world we are in with the pacific this season. It can work for snow but the odds of a big coastal are muted without southern stream energy