NorthHillsWx
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Everything posted by NorthHillsWx
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GFS was a good run for RDU but foothills blanked. Thermals even under the heavy stuff are borderline. It went much more positively tilted early on and was a late bloomer. Really can’t fight the EURO
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Close your eyes foothills folks
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Maybe a tick west through HR 60
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GFS looks almost identical to 6z so far
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To me this has been a slow bleed. Yes we had some great runs yesterday with the subpar models but thermals have been trending poorly for days. As others have noted, this isn’t a dynamic strong coastal low, so you’re not just going to wrap cold air in. It will be dynamic cooling we’re relying on and if you start at 38-40 at 10 am you’re in big trouble even if you get the precip
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NAM had BL temp issues for about everyone even those areas in that snow footprint. It was also earlier which does not help as it doesn’t give enough time for arctic air to bleed over mountains. It’s hour 70+ NAM so I wouldn’t look too deep into it but just another in a long line of growing thermal issues trending for everyone outside the mountains
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NM lol. Looked to be setting up for glory but way too warm. Can’t even get NAM’d
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Everyone, prepare to get NAM’d
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I’m going to repeat this until the grass is white. This is a major issue with this system we didn’t have to deal with in 2022 or last year and rates are going to be critical. Blues on models won’t mean white ground with this system unless you get heavier bands to set up (outside the mountains)
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10000% Living and dying by GFS and end of run NAM when EURO is locked in is not place to be. If we get a true overrunning event Euro does tend to tick NW with precip but it’s so far from the GFS world right now it would be a massive whiff from the EURO camp if we end up anything like last nights GFS run
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Outside the mountains given sketchy boundary layer issues I’m really starting to think rates will be the only way to accumulate and light snow will be white rain. Upper levels look good so dynamic cooling will be necessary for accumulating snow in piedmont areas. If those rates don’t develop it is going to be heartbreak in here
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That’s a pretty crazy discrepancy from the Euro and EPS
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It’s crazy to me how perpetually overdone Arctic air is on models east of apps in the 5-10+ day range. You’d think tweaks would be made or they would “learn”
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Thread started, someone had to do it
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It is time. Lot of speed bumps and fail modes for this one, but there is a path to some level of victory for most on the forum. Good luck everyone, next 3 days will be fun tracking
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6z Euro was warmer and east. Temps are becoming a concerning trend outside the mountains (what’s new)
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We are NOWHERE near the stage to worry about it as our main issue but BL temps and daytime timing are concerned. BL temps have modified with each run across most guidance for a few cycles now. Thankfully upper levels seem really good for the setup
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I do think it ticks NW but those will be ticks on the EURO. Inside 3 days to see the euro which has been rock steady comparatively to other modeling just jump 200 miles west would be shocking m. I do think you see them meet in the middle somewhat
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I still think Central NC is in a great spot. The fact that hasn’t really changed in 24 hours is both concerning and exciting.
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That NAM run was delivered with the Jaws music
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6z icon was pretty solid for central NC but not western areas. Still huge improvement overall though
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GFS with a rather large jump back east. Euro remains about where it’s been. One models staying steady and the other is jumping around 100 miles each run.
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Model Roundup before the king’s turn: GFS: boom run, huge trends west and more precip. Eastern areas at risk of missing out UK: too far east but pretty nice looking storm CMC: finally has the storm, but too warm pretty much anywhere south of VA RGEM: has storm, too warm SE of 85 ICON: has storm but just too far east. Much improved from previous runs
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UK staying south makes me think Euro isn’t moving much tonight. GFS and more importantly GEFS trends are undeniable
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Concerning issues: 1) sharp cutoff of overrunning precip to east (someone would get burned). This happens a lot with overrunning precip. Then there’s usually a dry slot before surface low takes over 2) models being too aggressive with cold push and trend to slower Arctic front/cold chasing precip/wasted qpf 3) Is the NW trend going to stop? Still 3.5 days out would not be the first time show maps went from Wilmington to Knoxville especially in a Nina base state without blocking
