NorthHillsWx

I know there are years where RDU got blanked, but has there been an entire winter season where no measurable snow was recorded in the entire forecast area? Furthermore, has there even been a season where the Raleigh NWS didn't issue a single winter weather product throughout? We may be in rare territory here

The NAM crushed it on the last event. Euro saw it but the NAM locked it in. Every now and then a blind squirrel finds a nut

Only thing with HP's that strong is what we're seeing with such a weak system: suppression

That is a big, glorious HP. I forgot what they look like

START A THREAD! lol some short range models have an area of precip coming in from the NE, oddly, after midnight tonight

POTD!

Got down to 38 this morning. Picked up 0.76" yesterday for a "storm total" of 1.08" last 3 days. That band of showers brought some really heavy rain when it first moved in

After we get through the disappointment of next week's rain, I think we can all move to spring mode

A lot of moving pieces for the system next week. One thing to pay attention to this far out more so than fantasy maps and exact placement of precip as modeled is the mode of cold air transport. This cannot be emphasized enough that even the best runs the last 2 days, especially east of the mountains, are highly dependent on the ~1040 mb High able to efficiently push cold air in-time to meet with the precip. This cold-chasing rain approach very rarely works out especially when the cold is coming from the NW. A backdoor front with cold air established in the NE usually works better (CAD). THAT being said, this is one of the strongest highs we've seen modeled this season. If we can get a long-duration overunning event, those can work in this setup. An amped low can also work to pull and manufacture some of it's own cold air (But we all know the mid level implications of an amped SE storm with marginal cold to begin with). Verdict: this situation is borderline at best. The Euro appeared to be onto something with runs yesterday before going to suppression city today. But the storm is still there. It did not lose it. GFS obviously was more in line with the EURO runs, but is delayed with the cold air (likely not incorrect). This is probably our best "threat" this season, but it has much less going for it than it does going against it and that's just the truth.

Down by 12 TD's, 2 min left. 4th and 22 from your 1 yard line... Let 'er rip

I love the enthusiasm on the main board but chasing these D10 storms is the definition of insanity. Same thing happens and people expect different results. Hey- at least it's something pretty to look at! I am 100% convinced we are getting blanked. This winter's grade is a N/A. It never showed up. I walked out my door this morning at 6:30 to 68 degrees...

The Euro control run... Given the above, not in "scientific" terms though highly accurate, NOTHING outside of D3 deserves any credence showing any sustained cold or a fluke snowstorm until proven otherwise

When was the last strong CAD ice storm for the RDU area? I feel like they used to be way more common. Even minimal events with front end Freezing Rain seemed to occur more frequently. We haven't had ice issues (power outages) in some time, not that I'd want them, but it just seems there always used to be stronger CAD on the front end of most rain systems than now. I can't tell you the last time I saw freezing rain

Terrible pattern, absolutely nothing supporting sustained cold. But something catches a 12 hour window at D10+ and gets shown on 1-2 model runs before turning into a MW cutter. Sigh... Onto severe season for me. Only way to get snow here is what happened in GA/SC the other day, something pops up in D3 range

Can't complain about boring weather in your neck of the woods

We picked up 0.18" this morning total up in my part of the county. Been watching the rain evaporate for the last 2 days on the models for central NC. Originally looked like 1.5-2 in now looks like 0.25 (if even) with a thin line of showers or storms being the only addition to what fell this AM. Oh well, we did just pick up almost 4 inches of rain Thursday!

What have we learned about D10 storms...

Never criticize excitement for any snowstorm outside of the mountains in this sub forum. If everyone here had already had 10 events, this one would still get just as much attention on this site and that is one of the things that is great about this region. 1 inch storms are a big deal to a lot of posters bc the other 364 days in the year we don't get to see snow make every flake a blessing! Happy for the guys that scored, that was a big storm for some of the posters on here! A 6 inch storm anywhere on this board is a good one, especially when it over-performs and stays all snow throughout! Enjoyed living vicariously through yall for the day

Most accurate comment of the day... In other fantasy news... I'd take this look 10/10 and see what we could cook up. Won't happen but that's pretty

Congrats SC and GA people! This turned into a major event for some areas! Way to hit climo in a season when that seemed impossible. Enjoyed the excitement through yall today! Love it when it snows in my old stomping grounds at Clemson, only happened a handful of times when I was a student there but they were always memorable! N Ga definitely made lemonade out of lemons! 6 in in a 6 hour snowfall...

It's amazing what decent mid levels can do for a storm. Something we usually overlook with our big systems where we are walking a fine line up the atmosphere

Some areas might go from having no advisory to warning level snows in the GSP forecast zone...

Per webcams, looks like roads are starting to cave

I swear, we do better in the south with these weak systems more consistently than big "blockbuster" storms. No mid-level warming and just enough moisture to make us happy, by our meager standards. The jealousy level to yall's north and east is unprecedented atm... Congrats!

Increasing