NorthHillsWx

Even for josh, that sounds terrifying. Glad he’s ok!

FL winds indicated hurricane even though SFMR observations were quite low. They averaged the two. I have to agree though, I seriously doubt this is producing surface winds even near hurricane force with the lack of convection. This will be a 45-50 kt storm at landfall. It’s over water as warm as it will get and does not have time to organize a core. There is no jet stream energy to tap into (like some higher latitude systems like Isaias) so this will be a decaying TS at landfall

Any word from Josh post-landfall? Last I saw from him he was driving through the eyewall of a rapidly intensifying borderline cat 4 on the coast at night. Hope all is well!

First major of the season. Been a wild day for grace

When did grace decide to get all sexy-like!?

Laura

If this had spent another 12 hours over water this morning it would’ve been a serious storm. Took really until the 11th hour to get its core put together

Josh measured 978 in eye, considerably lower than NHC estimate at landfall

I’ll be the first to say it: on visible, and not just in one frame, it looks like Henri may be starting to clear out an eye

Grace *still* lacks a coherent and robust core. Very fickle looking at the moment. Those westerlies on the south side of the circulation leave much to be desired.

Grace looks a little “popcorn-like” at the moment. Evidence of some of that mid level dry air.

Agreed. I’d think this warrants an upgrade, especially with increasing organization at this time. Not sure if NHC will bite or wait for next flight to confirm. This by all means is on the cusp

0.09” overnight and this morning for a mtd total of 3.82”. Currently overcast and a humid 76.6 out

Surprised no one is talking about the tornado outbreak going on. Multiple confirmed tornadoes including two PDS warnings, one of which is ongoing west of Columbia

Oh how I wish we had recon in Henri atm…

Land interactions have certainly not been kind to Grace. But things can change pretty fast if a core does get established. Obviously the thermodynamic potential is out the roof tomorrow if it can get going. Yep. Guidance is quite split on this one too, especially before it gets to the Yucatán. About half the guidance forecasts a slow strengthening pattern to continue, I’m assuming due to lack of a cohesive core, while the other half makes grace a hurricane at a more rapid pace. Really tough forecast, I think NHC is playing it correctly forecasting grace to be on the cusp of hurricane strength at landfall. If the system had a more well defined core this would be a strengthening hurricane. Relatively low shear, extremely moist envelop, and due to the thermodynamic potential and what we’ve already seen, grace has not lacked intense convection through its journey in the Caribbean

Yep. I believe we have a hurricane incoming

Grace has struggled mightily at organizing a coherent core it’s entire life. Even this recon mission shows the center of circulation is weak and embedded in what by all accounts looks like a wave envelope. Would not shock me to see several center reformations as it interacts with Jamaica. Until that happens, the very gradual strengthening we’ve seen last 24hrs would be all I’d forecast heading into the Yucatán. Strange system, overall environment would usually indicate a stronger system than what we’re seeing.

Henri looks very healthy this morning. Still feeling effects of some northwesterly shear, but the system has a vigorous mid level center seen clearly in the intense convective envelope it developed overnight and with morning visible it does not seem to be too far displaced from the llc. Given the current look, it would not shock me to see this small system ramp up quickly today, maybe becoming a hurricane

Picked up 2.21” over last few days. Sitting at 3.65” for the month. Edit: additional rainfall of 0.08” today brings our monthly total to 3.73”. Currently 77.4 with spitting rain

As expected, intensity guidance has really increased this cycle.

Kinda validates the low SFMR readings even with relatively high FL wind barbs. Some bouy observations have shown 50-60 mph sustained winds though

That dry air wrapping in will likely shut off the convection over the llc, similar to what happened yesterday before the overnight blowup. I think Fred had a chance to become a hurricane but that has likely passed. It could certainly generate another burst right before landfall but given the environment and current structure with the feed of dry air from the SW shear, the current convective burst is likely peaked and should be relatively short lived. Overall a solid TS though and very much a formidable system, especially compared to yesterday and the past week

It was a great storm for sure, we really haven’t had any good thunderstorms this year so this was welcome

Atlantic storms are just struggling this year. I’m sure it will change. Land interaction, dry air, moving too quickly, shear, anything that can hamper storm development has to this point