NorthHillsWx

Danielle is working on establishing a CDO this afternoon. Definitely some light to moderate shear but it’s also helping to establish a divergent, venting flow aloft which really helps these mid latitude systems over slightly cooler set’s. Everything continues to progress nicely for a decent little fish hurricane

3.33” for August. Had a lot of rain events just very few that added up to much.

I am just going to say I was wrong. I went with something like 23/9/3 thinking a bunch of worthless swirls would get named. I forgot that there are in fact seasons that don’t even feature worthless swirls to name

Pretty good structure on this one. Cool evolution. Mid latitude cane formation always interests me

Lol. Looking at long range, the MDR looks to remain remarkably quiet. It would take a frantic second half of September and October to even approach normal season activity, we’ve fallen that far behind. Our first hurricane will come from a mid-latitude system in September. Doubt DT and many of the others hyping August thought we’d be saying that a month ago

It’s actually found itself in a pretty good spot (really an island) of moderately warm water and good upper level divergent flow. Looks to be on its way to being our first hurricane of the year.

@ldub23 Congrats on getting August correct. I know many people had some of your posts from late July/early August saved to deploy when August went sideways. It did not. You certainly have a history of downplaying very active seasons and looking the other way when you’re wrong, some call it trolling, but you were correct this month. Enjoy the limelight. Also, you may be a professional troll, I don’t know the intent and I don’t care about the spirit of your posts, but you do an excellent job of keeping this board active when the tropics are dead. So thanks for that

It’s definitely made for a photo finish to the month. Half the board wants it so one poster can be proven wrong, half the board wants to keep the shutout through the day. Get your popcorn ready

It would be an absolute travesty to get a mid latitude sheared spin up to sugarcoat the historic ineptitude of this season to this point, but that’s a TD. It had better convection this morning but you can see what’s under the hood, that’s a classifiable tropical system and has been all day I take it.

If anyone wants to watch a textbook ERC complete tune into the western pacific right now.

Looking at visible, our August shutout is going to end at 5pm from 93L. That’s a TD. Mid latitude fish storm to the rescue. Also one of my favorite TCG to watch unfold from old boundaries.

Would be absolutely comical if the LAST possible advisory for August featured a system

Two cherries and an orange… looks like we’ll possibly double our season total by this weekend. Minimal threats to land. Good surf on the east coast and Bermuda in play

We've had something like 8 or 9 active to hyperactive years in a row. Without the ridiculous subtropical wave breaking persisting abnormally long into the ASO this year, the general consensus would have most likely been correct. That is it was supposed to be active and even hyperactive. We've also got 8 more weeks to play with. But I wouldn't sweat it. The subtropical wave breaking and its effect on shear and allowing dry air to persist has certainly shut down the MDR, but the complete lack of any activity in the GOM, western Caribbean, and SW Atlantic is absolutely shocking to me. We’ve had slow MDR seasons that featured AN activity overall bc these other parts of the basin remained highly active. In a 3rd year La Niña climo highly favors these areas for development as well. The fact the ENTIRE basin is shut down and has been the entire season (all 3 storms struggled more than forecast and Collin was, well, kinda a name wasting joke) is what’s perplexing to me. Also, the 2 year downturn of global cyclone activity in defiance of numerous forecasts also says there may be other factors at play in the northern hemisphere affecting tropical cyclone genesis and overall conditions for tropical systems to reach higher intensity. I’m sure this period will be studied for future analogs outside of each basin’s own activity

A potential effect of the monsoonal depression persisting over the same location for so long is that the elongated surface gyre with multiple MCSs is likely cooling SSTs a degree or two to that central and significant location of the MDR. Though 91L may eventually go on to organize into a TC and move on into the Western or Northwestern Atlantic basin, such a long duration broad convectively active gyre may leave a large area of sub 28° SSTs for systems that traverse that locale down the road. Though it's still warm early September in the tropics so that should rebound some. Fitting for 2022. Our lone NS makes it even harder to get anything else bc it sat over the MDR as a disorganized mess too long.

A certain poster can take his/her victory lap tomorrow about calling for a 0-0-0 August in a season that featured dire forecasts. If you say the same thing every year, I guess you can be right once every 25 years (last time we were blanked in August). We will not get blanked in September, that’s a certainty.

After a lull, EPAC looks to get going again

Very slim margin for error! In all honesty, this season may struggle to produce 10 NS, it is that hostile and there are currently no signs of that changing. 91L seemed like a lock for a hurricane but even that is in question now. We are burning through peak season now with long range ensembles seemingly looking less and less threatening in terms of storm development and we’ve seen a huge decrease on the Ops as well. This first week of September just a few days ago looked like it was about to explode. Now we have an invest that is going to continue to struggle for some time and really nothing behind it

GFS develops 91L as it recurves then has a short lived TS about the same time from a vigorous AEW that dies out in very hostile conditions north of the MDR. Euro doesn’t even develop thus wave. GFS is then suspiciously dead through the end of the run. Ensemble support through this period has really decreased for both GEFS and EPS. It kind of looks like it’s a 91L show then we go back to the doldrums… This is not a switch flipping period in the basin, but a one show pony at least for the next 10 days as I see it

Was out of town over the weekend but picked up 0.60” to bring our monthly total to 3.33” imby

0Z guidance was a snooze fest

ASCAT revealed that this system has successfully, though slowly, been organizing. However, visible, water vapor and IR imagery shows what the system is up against. On visible, numerous outflow boundaries can be seen from collapsed storms, indicating dry air. Further, on IR, it’s beginning to have “popcorn” storms on the NW side. A telltale sign of dry air in the formative circulation. Water vapor confirms the dry air it is moving into. Looking at IR, while you can’t see the formative surface circulation as you can on visible, you can see several areas of mid level rotation along the wave axis. This shows the system is still quite disorganized. Lastly, 91L for days has been able to generate constant deep convection as it was still associated with the monsoon trough and in a moist envelope. We’re just now seeing what life outside the monsoon trough will be like for the system, and it’s a similar story as everything else that’s traversed this part of the Atlantic, dry and sheared. This is taking a huge toll on the convective envelope of the system right now. 91L has a couple things working for it previous waves didn’t: 1) it’s the furthest west a wave has made it in a very long time without being obliterated 2) north of the islands looks, to different degrees, favorable for development 3) it has a formulative center, and being able to keep some of this organization will help it take advantage of a more favorable environment in a few days, if it can I think the system’s initial development has been capped as of this morning when it entered the hostile conditions currently affecting it. These hostile conditions should stop any continued organization for at least the next 2 days. Beyond that, this will be a named storm, finally

Overall guidance has trended downward in regards to intensity with 91L. There are still some strong solutions but the interaction with the TUTT seems to be trending towards a less favorable look, even in the EPS guidance which had a very favorable environment east of the Bahamas yesterday. My best guess is the low that had been shown to form north of the system along the trough is no longer present allowing the TUTT to extended further south that previously shown. Other observations from morning guidance definitely has trended further west with weaker solutions, with stronger solutions trending towards a recurve. Low level steering is generally east-west but the trough that previously had shown LP development to the north of 91L, with HP rebuilding west behind it, is now just a trough. This would be the escape path out to sea with a stronger/deeper system. It also shows shear as low level steering and mid level flows are at odds. Long story short, 91L has a questionable future for intensity and track, but I am very confident it will become a NS around 60W. Beyond that, I think guidance has trended weaker overall and future path options will hinge on intensity, LP development to the north along the trough, and where a LP center eventually forms for 91L.

I love this board. Carry on

That wave that just came off the African coast is one of the most robust-looking waves this season. Guidance is murky on it in the short term, but it looks more organized than guidance would seem to indicate. Maybe this one can spin up before it runs into the Atlantic Sahara?