Bob's Burgers
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Everything posted by Bob's Burgers
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Yes. Very interesting seeing the NMMB firing clean convection.
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It's like the ceiling got even higher, but the certainty lower.
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Clear as mud what happens tomorrow
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and that would be why there is nothing
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Yep. The parameter space on the NAM3k is through the roof... and nothing.
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That is a very strong run of the NAM, guys.
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stout NAM is stout.
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Based off what the latest HRRR showed, I feel like what we saw last Wednesday is a pretty realistic scenario.
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This hrrr is definitely weaker.
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A high risk looks practical after seeing these 18z runs.
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That is a beastly run of the NAM
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I went back to read the April 14th, 2012 D2 discussion and it doesn't mention the word "violent" in the right context. In fact, the discussion seems to suggest that violent tornadoes may not be likely.
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Expanding the moderate and enhanced northeast would make sense. There isn't quite good enough model agreement for a high risk D2 yet due to storm mode. Some of the HREF members last night had some early convection too which can be a bit of a fly in the ointment. That said, a high risk at 6z would make sense if the 0z HREF shows a strong signal.
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You gotta wonder what the next few hours of both the ARW and NSSL WRF would look like; both look like they are forming a lot more storms at 0z when the run ends.
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The ARW is a total slugfest/high-end outbreak.
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SPC might have to bring the Slight all the way to Dayton Ohio
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The warm sector on the NMMB is enormous
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This takes the threat well into TN too, including Nashville ^^^
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That's enough simulated HRRR supercells for one day. LOL
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This is gold
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Should the SPC evolve the convective outlook in response to the public consuming their products? To me it would make sense for the sake of better hazard communications.
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The second high risk will be this Thursday, March 25th.
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Broad troughing like we're seeing with this event Thursday usually bodes poorly for the Deep South and TN Valley. The shear profiles are better, less VBV, storms move off the hodograph... etc. The deep, super amplified negative tilt trough is way overrated.
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Drop the term Moderate. Actually, just drop all the wording together and do a numbered scale 1/5, 2/5... etc.
