mattie g

I say this pretty much every time, but I feel bad for my kids. They had SO MUCH FUN during the January 31 event, even if was pretty lame, but these kinds of rug pulls just completely suck for them.

The Inlaw Josie Wales is a great Phish/Trey Anastasio acoustic song.

Yup. The reason for the name of the High Plains region.

Euro folding like a wet napkin. What it’s folding to, I have no idea, but it’s folding nonetheless.

I agree with him.

I wouldn't either if the Euro hadn't consistently been losing precip on the northern edge over the last 24 hours...and hadn't lost a ton of its total juice at 12z today.

Agreed. You can't take a one-frame snip of a multi-week model run and make some sort of definitive comment about where the pattern will be going.

I hate this winter.

Went out to watch the kids play at lunchtime today. sun was out and it felt really nice. Still mostly sunny and 46 here in Burke. And we have no snowpack except for random spots.

I was just going to say this. We've had modeled cutters from 10 days out that have become harmless waves that end up flitting off the NC coast. And there's this week's storm, as you mentioned - modeled as a crippling ice storm that is washing out as we get closer. No global model - no matter how good - is going to nail a medium-range threat (let alone a long-range one) this season. We should all have accepted that by now given the past as precedent.

Same. The spidey senses are tingling.

I can appreciate when people are OK with a run-of-the-mill snowfall when the predominance of model runs leading up to it were a much more meaningful event. Me? I don't hide disappointment well, though I can refrain from throwing my toys out of the pram.

The "weenie runs" on the Euro have been fairly consistent for a couple days now. It makes sense that people would get excited by them.

12z Euro:

The Euro QPF trend of being eaten away on the northern end has continued on the downward path since at least 12z yesterday, and has taken a huge hit today, though the max stripe in south central VA has remained steady. For those in the DC area and north, we need a shift by 00z tonight or else we're looking at a pretty mundane event. Edit: Ninja'd

I'll take the questionable 9" of snow that the CMC is selling for MBY.

I average about 20" and have had 7" so far this year, so it's not been a uniform good year across all of NoVA.

I'm not concerned by verbatim NAM output. I'm just looking for general moves/tells. Edit: Let's see if my "theory" about the NAM "leading the way" in the quite holds true. Precip increased on the northern edge for this run.

Don't like the cutoff on the NE edge from 57 to 60.

Those lollies are never to be trusted other than to see that lollies are possible - location and amount of poundage *always* TBD.

Perhaps...and I'm always up for my intuitions being proven dumb. I'm curious to see what happens with the 12z globals and how they do or don't line up with 12z NAM shifts.

I feel like the NAM is giving us a feeling as to where the globals will adjust during the same suite. Maybe that's confirmation bias or something, but it does feel like the NAM "sets the stage" for adjustments in the suite, even if those adjustments aren't to be taken literally.

Totally agree. If that confluence relaxes just a tad, then we'll see that QPF field expand north. As it is, it's getting squeezed from the north, but the southern edge isn't budging. I'd imagine we'll see some better-than-normal ratios on the northern edge of the best precip - lots of fluff.

One thing that stood out to me with the 00z Euro is that the northern edge of the QPF field has really been eaten away the last couple runs, with northern MD now running from 0.3-0.5" total for the duration, with similar decreases down to just about a line from Alexandra/Warrenton. The area south of that has remained pretty steady, so to me it seems the goalposts are beginning to narrow on keeping the most moisture in central VA. We have time, but I'm not sure we'll see any huge adjustments, though even just a 20-mile shift in that northern edge will make a huge difference for a lot of folks. Edit: The 6z euro map shows exactly what I was talking about. Northern edge is getting gobbled up.