mattie g

The last thing I worry about in November and December is dry conditions. The sun is so low that the ground is still moist even without much rainfall.

I mean...it wouldn't be a bad thing, but something is obviously wonky. Seems odd that there would be a huge jump in where convection blows up from one day to the next.

I looked at that earlier and was going to mention it, but you put it way more eloquently than I could have.

There's just an amazing agreement in general between both the GEPS and GEFS going out through the end of the run. The main difference I can see is that the GEPS noses the EPO ridge up into the AO domain, but it's pretty far out there. Stunning to me to see how in line they are.

Hostas don't give a sh*t. Them and roaches will still be here after the apocalypse.

I'm happy to look at it remaining stable in time on the ensembles. We're just looking at long-wave patterns and general trends, but I'm absolutely with you that long-range deterministic modeling is just for show. Nothing to look at until things shuffle a bit, so might as well focus on the beginning of January when things will hopefully look a little more promising as we get closer in time.

Was about to post the same. EPO re-establishes itself just after the new year and connects to the NAO. 50/50 heights remain low throughout. Would love to see that EPO ridge shift just a little east though. Even so...that cold in NW Canada gets released and pushes to the SE. We also see the increased precip anomalies from the Tennessee Valley into the Mid-Atlantic towards the end of the run. That's another thing that's been noticeable for quite a few runs now.

You need to be involved in #natgas. Only then - and with a substantial outlay - will you get the good stuff from them.

You tell the kids to go outside and enjoy the beautiful day. While you drink.

Regarding the rapid-fire posts in the long-range thread…

The reality is that most folks here don’t know what we’re talking about. We’re just weather nerds.

Not in the least. Most folks understand that and/or inexperienced posters just need to find their groove, but folks who have been around for a long time but still chat sh*t are absolutely unbearable…whether it’s the schtick they’ve crafted for years or not.

Wow. Big talk. Do go on.

Totally agree. I’m going to start putting the junk posters on ignore.

A couple pours of Weller Special Reserve for me.

F*ck’s sake. Can we just ban the absolute f*cking shite posters in the long-range thread? Even the long-timers. I hate this place some(most)times.

The new normal.

If the EPO does cooperate and we get the blocking that's showing up on the ensembles, then I think we do get cold and our chances start shortly thereafter, which is when our general chances at frozen start to increase significantly in general. While I realize that waiting a little bit for the pattern to favor us is much better than having it kick in earlier, I kinda wish we'd seen this like 10 days earlier so that we'd have a better shot at some white leading into Christmas...though I'm not going to complain about it if we do wait and it comes to fruition!

Cool discussion about past events in this thread. So...how are we feeling about what the GEFS is laying down and sticking with at 500 starting a couple days before Christmas? What I like is that the can isn't getting kicked on this and that we're seeing a chance that some of that cold in Canada bleeds in our direction.

The new normal.

True. It is interesting and significant, though not unprecedented.

I turned up my volume, and I swear I could hear a slight jingle.

This is exactly how I remember it. It was there for days, but then reality set in and it disappeared. But while it may have been anomalous, it was a dream to watch it unfold on run after run.

Is that the one which was showing a massive stream of moisture coming out of the Southwest and running over a deep layer of cold air for days on end?

I know you’re just a troll, but I don’t believe the term “false flag” means what you think it means.