mattie g

3 minutes ago, H2O said:

82.5°. It’s October 

Only 16 degrees shy of the daily record.

21 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Lantern flies here. 

We've so far escaped them in my neck of Fairfax County, but I'm assuming it's a matter of time. We went apple picking in Berryville this weekend and I killed all three that I saw.

Was up in South Jersey about six weeks ago and didn't see nearly as many as I did at the same time last year. My dad said that they weren't as plentiful as they had been in the previous couple years, so I guess that's good.

On 9/30/2023 at 8:28 PM, CAPE said:

Feb is total weenie at h5

That's a pretty ludicrous look. And January isn't much worse.

On 9/30/2023 at 4:44 PM, DarkSharkWX said:

 

It does shift the blocking a little west, but that Low by the Aleutians and the PNA look much nicer.

BWI:  Nov 9

IAD:  Oct 28

DCA:  Nov 20

RIC:  Nov 9

BWI departure: +0.9

1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said:

I can't seem to successfully embed tweets anymore but if you follow this link...YEESH to the issues in Brooklyn and NYC right now -

 

https://x.com/LaurenGlassberg/status/1707779198104830418?s=20

Change "x.com" to www.twitter.com"

13 hours ago, CAPE said:

PR doesn't exist anymore. 

Could have said that right after Maria, but I was there last year, and the rumor of its demise has been greatly exaggerated.

1 minute ago, jonjon said:

Leaves are really beginning to pop out here for those wanting to get some early peeping.  This weekend should be really nice.  The following weekend as well, the recent rains give me confidence we won't have a quick leaf drop and the colors should last for a while.

I definitely want to get out there sometime. Wife has been wanting to do a weekend trip with our girls, so maybe in the next couple weeks.

Heading to Berryville for apple picking this Saturday. Won't be quite what it's like by you, but should be starting to show some color.

9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

You would think CWG would know better than to post an article like this.

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

My wife is going bonkers with no sun since last Saturday. Really hope we can manage a few hours of sun today.

Same here...

11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It is generally better. I made the post wrt to the discussion above regarding Dec being a winter month anymore.. white Xmas or torch. CanSIPS at least suggests a chance of the former, CFS not so much.

Gotcha. Yeah...we've torched hard in December recently (aside from late December last year), but agree that it's either that or a pleasantly surprising white December.

That said, last CanSIPS was a weenie run. Would be nice to see it go that way again in a few days.

14 hours ago, CAPE said:

 

CanSIPS has always been a more reliable seasonal model.

I'm all in...until its September 30 run. That's probably when I'll be out.

3 minutes ago, Scuddz said:

We've overplanted tomatoes and peppers once again this year and they're still prolifically producing.  On our 4th batch of salsa and I need to go pick once again.  My super-hots are finally ripening (Scorpion and Ghost chilis) so time for the hot stuff to be added in.

Sounds awesome. Better to have more than you need than less!

Same here n terms of production. We've got enough green tomatoes on the plants right now to once again keep us in fresh tomatoes through October (assuming no early frosts). I'll probably make another half batch of smoked salsa in the next couple weeks, if only to make some room in the freezers by using more of our frozen tomatoes!

Made eight pints of smoked salsa yesterday. Used ~13 lbs of cored and seeded frozen tomatoes, 10 jalapenos, one head of garlic, and another ~3 lbs of fresh tomatoes from the garden. Those ingredients were supplemented by white onions and cilantro from the store along with various spices.

Second year I've done this and it turned out excellent again!

Just about 3" on the dot here for the event. Pretty dreary day yesterday - we really do know how to hold onto light precip in coastal events after the main show ends.

1 hour ago, coolio said:

Wishcasting is strong today.

Cool story, bruv.

50 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

KDOX radar and the eastern side of the KLWX radar scope seems to support heavy rain incoming in the coming hours. We'll see how it rotates in and if it sustains. 

38 minutes ago, high risk said:

     Exactly!     We're right where we are supposed to be in terms of rainfall through mid-morning.   Another round of heavier rain is clearly approaching from the southeast now, with more bands later today.    I think that the time to really watch is late tonight and early Sunday.    Remnant tropical systems often overperform big-time with rains close to the center during the night.    Several consecutive runs of the NAM Nest show this idea:

But we don’t have 2” of rain yet, so you’re supposed to meh this thing.

Wife just booked us a house right next to the mountaintop village at Snowshoe for the four-day Fairfax County Schools weekend at the beginning of November - four nights and two full days in total.

This is the first time we've had a long weekend as a family other than visiting the in-laws in HHI. Shooting to just enjoy the post-leaf fall scenery, a few hikes, and some time away. Hoping for some early-season flakes while we're there!

1 hour ago, GATECH said:

So what are people drinking tonight.  I am experimenting with some new fall bourbon cocktails.  I need a signature cocktail for thanksgiving and figured this would be a good weekend to practice.  Anyone have any favorites?

Peacharine Dry-Hopped Pseudo Sue from Toppling Goliath and The Common from Trillium...so far.

1 hour ago, aldie 22 said:

I was in Philly the last two days...shithole..taking amtrak home now...heading to Wisconsin...shithole...on Monday wondering if air traffic will be messed up. The train is a great way to travel by the way total low stress way

Stay true to form and admit that Aldie is a shithole, too.

9 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY TONIGHT/...
Newly named Tropical Storm Ophelia is expected to move north
through tonight, making landfall along the North Carolina coast.
Ophelia will track into southeast Virginia, eventually losing
its tropical characteristics and becoming an extratropical
system as it moves across Virginia. This is the reason for the
combination of tropical (Tropical Storm Warnings) and non-
tropical (Wind Advisory) headlines in our area. Regardless of
its designation, this system is expected to bring widespread
rainfall and strong winds to the area starting tonight and
persisting through Sunday morning.

Light rain is expected to reach far southern Maryland this
evening, then spread north through the overnight. Most of the
area should be in light rain come sunrise Saturday. The
heaviest rain should hold off until late Saturday morning.
Temps tonight settle in the low to mid 50s, with upper 50s to
low 60s from D.C. down to southern Maryland.

Strong northeast winds are expected to develop along and east of
the Blue Ridge as the circulation of Ophelia pushes northward.
Wind gusts of 35-45 mph are expected, with stronger gusts up to
50-55mph along the immediate coast of the Western Shore and
Tidal Potomac. The combination of long duration wind gusts and a
saturated ground from rain will result in higher chances for
downed trees across the area.

A drenching rain is expected from the Blue Ridge eastward with
2 to 4 inches of rainfall, locally approaching 5 inches through
Sunday morning. Given upslope flow against the east slopes of
the Blue Ridge Mountains, some localized heavy maxima are not
out of the question. Forecast highs are in the upper 50s to mid
60s, locally down into the upper 40s to mid 50s across the
mountains.

But the models are drying up!

2 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

No doubt some on here were expecting 5" of rain

Right?

We have to expect small changes in the bullseyes, as we always do. Just because a stripe of heaviest rain shifts further west or east doesn't mean that the system is drying up. Someone will end up with 2-3x...maybe even 4x more rain than other places - its just how these things work.

13 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

The leftovers from this sit off the coast then hit us again next weekend lol

Whether that loop happens or not, that block is a beast.

11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

NAMs appear to have less than 2" west of I-95. The thing just spins itself out over North Carolina and Virginia.

12km NAM isn't appreciably different from 00z or 18z.

13 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Models about cut qpf in half with 12z runs 

They did?