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Stevo6899

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  1. Stevo6899
    Nice banding already over the area. Dtx upgraded a few to warnings which was warranted, but still surprised and unlike them to be prepared for once. Gonna rip for 6 or so hours later. Wish I was home for it but told myself it's gotta be a foot for me to hop on a plane and leave paradise. Y'all enjoy it, might be the only decent event of the winter. Definitely the first one in years.
  2. Stevo6899
    Rap/hhr steady with bringing the high totals to atleast m59.
  3. Stevo6899
    True but this is the first respectable low pressure we've had in years take this track and not get sheared out by the time it gets to us. I could be wrong but I think we finally see the further nw bands than modeled.
  4. Stevo6899
    Per usual they'll issue warnings for macomb/oakland after 6 inches of snow is on the ground.
  5. Stevo6899
    Yea I wouldn't be surprised to see the dry slot sneak into se mi. My early guess is what I've thought all along. Novi out to Jackson gonna jackpot, while NE/nw Ohio gets screwed over. Also areas to the east forecasted to get more, will end up with less.
  6. Stevo6899
    Hhr/rap both in the stronger/nw camp and looks good for detroit. Grain of salt I suppose looking at those past 12 hrs.
  7. Stevo6899
    I'd prefer Tony packos.
  8. Stevo6899
    Guess it's almost time to see if we can awaken the nw last min trick for the first time in awhile.
  9. Stevo6899
    I think without the confluence, this thing prob tracks through west Michigan so I guess it's atleast giving us the chance at a decent snowstorm. Still not big enough for me to hop on a plane for and fly home. There hasn't been one worthy storm the past 4 years to get me to fly home. Sigh...
  10. Stevo6899
    A man called jonger (otto).
  11. Stevo6899
    Dtx sneakily issuing watches for the city but leaves out macomb. Macomb thanks them cause areas that see less headlines, always end up with more.
  12. Stevo6899
    Pingers
  13. Stevo6899
    Dtx never fails to find the dry slot, and nam been saying it's maybe coming.
  14. Stevo6899
    As of now, my guess would be that the banding sets up west, say coldwater/Jackson/Howell, per usual wit this kinda track near toledo or just east of there. Either way it's fun to have something to atleast track.
  15. Stevo6899
    The differences at Hour 57 between the nam and rgem are lol worthy.
  16. Stevo6899
    Meanwhile dtx doesn't even involve itself in the standoff. They just stand in the corner laughing cause they know they not issuing warnings regardless. Interesting track and evolution on the 12z nam. Gets it down to 998, and closes off, which would setup banding somewhere in MI. I wonder why it doesn't keep tracking north and instead moves east? Confluence to the north?
  17. Stevo6899
    Curious if dtw will issue watches. The low looks to close off but not much precip in the deformation band once the low gets east of Detroit. Curious to see how this one evolves. Like many have stated, models struggle with phasing interactions.
  18. Stevo6899
    It is pretty wild to hear about it melting on contact due to the warm ground in the middle of the winter. Warm muggy and 85 down here in naples today.
  19. Stevo6899
    Meanwhile gfs now tracks it almost over detroit. Pretty impressive system
  20. Stevo6899
    Pretty decent banding has setup in detroit area points west to GRR. I see it spreads all the way down to Columbus and east dayton. Someone may reach a half a foot.
  21. Stevo6899
    6zrgem also looks similar, strengthening as it heads NE. That's key here and the difference between an 8-12 and 3-6. If it weakens as it head NE, it'll transfer alot quicker
  22. Stevo6899
    I dunno about that. While msp has had a good winter and this most recent storm delivered for NE, most of the systems this winter have been pretty weak and trended downward. This one, while a long ways to go, is trending in the weaker direction.
  23. Stevo6899
    12z gem a little weaker with the wave but still solid run. Gfs considerably weaker, less impressive.
  24. Stevo6899
    Interesting that they think this thing has the potential to go nw of here which is possible if earlier phasing occurs.
  25. Stevo6899
    Iol I've always felt bad for toledo/monroe/ nw Ohio cause the bands almost always used to end up further nw but nowadays I'm not so sure. It's hasn't happened in awhile.
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