Stevo6899

Curious if dtw will issue watches. The low looks to close off but not much precip in the deformation band once the low gets east of Detroit. Curious to see how this one evolves. Like many have stated, models struggle with phasing interactions.

It is pretty wild to hear about it melting on contact due to the warm ground in the middle of the winter. Warm muggy and 85 down here in naples today.

Meanwhile gfs now tracks it almost over detroit. Pretty impressive system

Pretty decent banding has setup in detroit area points west to GRR. I see it spreads all the way down to Columbus and east dayton. Someone may reach a half a foot.

6zrgem also looks similar, strengthening as it heads NE. That's key here and the difference between an 8-12 and 3-6. If it weakens as it head NE, it'll transfer alot quicker

I dunno about that. While msp has had a good winter and this most recent storm delivered for NE, most of the systems this winter have been pretty weak and trended downward. This one, while a long ways to go, is trending in the weaker direction.

12z gem a little weaker with the wave but still solid run. Gfs considerably weaker, less impressive.

Interesting that they think this thing has the potential to go nw of here which is possible if earlier phasing occurs.

Iol I've always felt bad for toledo/monroe/ nw Ohio cause the bands almost always used to end up further nw but nowadays I'm not so sure. It's hasn't happened in awhile.

Let's see if we can break the streak and get a system that continues to be respectable and strengthens as it heads NE. I'm still feeling good about this one. Our patience has to pay off eventually...

Lock in the 0z Canadian. Perfect track and it strengthens it as it moves NE, while the gfs weakens it. Concerns me that the euro keeps it fairly weak. I guess it all depends on the phasing interaction which hopefully will be figured out by the models by mon.

Track is good for detroit but most importantly its good to see the models maintain the strength of the low as it moves NE and not weaken it/transfer to Miller b.

Yea I was unaware there was phasing with the northern stream with this system. With that the case, anyone from ord to Cleveland is in play. It looks like an earlier phase would mean a stronger system and less likely to transfer to the coast as fast, if at all. Even without a phase, there should still be a respectable snowstorm somewhere. Let's hope it all comes together for the first time in years.

He's lying Fer sure. Gfs says he should be scared of north.

Just gotta hope it stays primary long enough before it starts to transfer to a secondary. Euro transfers earlier. That's why it's so hard to get a big dog for dtw. When lows do rarely track favorably, a coastal low steals the energy.

As far as strengh goes, fortunately it doesn't bomb out or is all that impressive mb wise, but with the gom open for business, it doesn't need to be strong. Here's to the next 5 days feeling like a month.

Yea if dtw is gonna miss this one, its gonna be to the nw. Gut feeling. All depends where the low ejects, deepens, etc

Obviously Minneapolis has nothing to complain about but it's kind of a bummer how this system and snow bands shit the bed once it get out of the NE. I wish I was more advanced in meteorology to understand why this system fell apart/occluded so quickly.

Perhaps it's Josh rubbing off on me or the florida sun but let's keep it positive. We're in a rutt but things can change quickly. I'm feeling this one for dtw and ord crew.

One of these times we're gonna break that trend. In this case if it does end up being weaker then let it miss to the South. I know we're all snow starved, but me personally, I'll pass on a weaker storm. As a few meteorologists on here have stated I think the pattern right now relies less on phasing so we might have a better chance if we can get a decent low. I believe this storm has gulf origin so I doubt moisture will be an issue. If this is gonna be the one to intensify, I'd rather be on the Northwest fringes at this point.

Like I stated in the banter thread, I'd like where I'm sitting if I was in Chicago, west Michigan. Buffer for intensification.

It's good to see all models have the storm, and pretty decent agreement too. All u can ask for at this point. Still scared of the nw trend lol. Always wanna be a lil nw of potential big daddys.

Almost 2 feet reported west of broken bow NE. Perhaps the TD totals did materialize this time. Maybe one day I'll get to witness a 2 footer in my neck of the woodz...

I'm confused. Parts of Nebraska are getting 12-18.

Now they track thru chicago/cmi or inland up i95. Stuck in betweenzzzz. I've always said a low has a hard time staying dominant/taking the track you stated as a transfer to a secondary occurs often. Once In awhile you'll get a low to stay dominant and take your stated track but seems like 10+ years since it's happened.