ORH_wxman

18z euro is weak sauce way southeast.

Wow what a weenie run of the weeklies. 2nd half of January is all teed up on that look.

Many of the members must be breaking off a piece of the PV like the OP. I noticed the heights down in Ontario and our region look lower than previously. That’s obviously a good thing....even a little bit of fresh airmass enhancement goes a long ways when you have a block like that. A little more antecedent air can give a lot more wiggle room. Hopefully we see that trend stay on future runs.

Yeah plenty of ant-cyclonic curve on that

EPS looks a bit NW of the OP run.

Yes. We did have a shorter lived block in Jan 2016 but it never got as intense as current model guidance is suggesting this one could be.

Did you see how this run breaks off a little piece of the PV around D4-5 and that actually then gets trapped in S Canada and keeps some decent cold around? You can see it sitting there just SE of Hudson Bay on the map I posted.

dryslot was hanging out with ice1972 this morning

Davis Strait block....

What in the hell is the Euro doing? It's trying to pull a Feb '69 and retrograde it back. Doesn't succeed, but it makes an attempt.

Vort is pretty weak sauce, but it's still tracking into SE NY....so that is still a caution flag for believing a far SE solution.

12z Euro is going to squeeze the s/w more this run I think. The 1/2 system continues to be slower departing than 06z run.

Ukie is mostly a whiff...it gives some snow to CT and MA....it shows rain for SE MA, but I think it would prob be snow as they get into a commahead for a time. But it has sfc temps around 37 so it spits out rain on the clown maps....but 850 temp is like -5 and 925mb is like -1 to -2 so I would say snow there. Doesn't really matter though on a 96h prog.

Why the hell are we posting an 84 hour map in this thread when the event is basically starting in SNE at 78-84 hours?

At least wait until afternoon to hit the egg nog today. It's a long night.

Yeah, title says 3+....guess it could just say 3-4, though ti could linger into Maine until 1/5. It likely starts in SNE on the 3rd.

Yeah it kind of reaches up to ACY latitude and then goes straight east....reminds me a bit of some of those squashed runs from Dec 16-17.

Ukie is way SE....a bit of model chaos.

Yeah get that just a little further SE....the trend is our friend though on the shortwave squeeze.

GGEM came southeast from 00z....more like a berks to dendrite crusher though verbatim.

Vort energy actually gets forced underneath SNE that run....which is why it was really good.

Yeah....and while the high is kind of weak, it is at least there feeding the dry dewpoints into the system to help with evap cooling. Compare this one: With this one (12/5):

FWIW, there IS a high pressure system in a decent spot, it's just not very cold. But it does help feed dry air into the system. This was something lacking in the 12/5 system which really made the marginal airmass hurt more...esp for lower elevations.

Yeah thats fair analysis...I still think one should always be leery of H5 tracks that far NW precisely because energy can try and round that curve "tucked in"....so you end up with a vort slicing into NY State....a sfc low over ACK, but getting flooded with warm air in the midlevels.....versus having that energy further SE. I do think we're starting to see a response to the downstream blocking a bit....I've noticed the last couple runs are slowing the departure of the 1/2 system which is creating wave-spacing issues with the 1/4 system...forcing it south versus some of the more amped runs (that you didn't like yesterday).

See my post above to Scott....directly mentioning where the vort energy is tracking. Yesterday's Euro had it slicing through ROC....no dice for snow on that. That 06z run had it now running into AVP and likely SNE. That has a chance.