ORH_wxman

Monday is weird...I don't have a good feel for it at all...some guidance tries to send another round of snow/sleet (or light freezing rain/drizzle) into SNE, but others have more of a pause.

18z NAM trying to get a couple inches in here tomorrow night now too....something I think we'll need to watch for the next cycle. I had mentioned the analogs were quite a bit more bullish on QPF than the model guidance. Doesn't mean we end up with as much as those analogs, but it sometimes helps point to which way the system is more likely to trend.

NAM was a little less phased on the 18z run....something we'll obviously have to watch closely.

The euro is probably not correct...but I was saying if we took everything else on the model at face value, you'd have to drag that sfc freezing line southeast. There is just no way to get the sfc warmth that far inland in a sfc pressure config like that. I'm not sure if Euro is correct on the really warm mid-levels....it was pretty "phase-y" with the two streams, so it's plausible. My gut tells me we prob tick back colder given this whole boundary tends to get tilted/shifted too far NW erroneously in the medium range....sort of what Tip was alluring to above. But this is a pretty convoluted setup, so I'm just making an educated guess here. Regardless, I'm pretty sure you aren't sniffing freezing in the next 5 days (and prob longer).

Prob should rephrase my sentence.....take the Euro at face value except bring the sfc temps/ice further SE. Classic model bias is 2m temps way too warm with arctic high bending into Quebec/Ontario. But yeah, on the overall point, there's going to be model shifts between now and Tuesday....some will show more snow and others will show more ice.

Bring 'em southeast in reality....gonna be hard to rain where that high is.

That includes snow before and after 2/16.....2/16 has very little snow in SNE.

I remember that....forecast for the final event was mostly rain with ice inland. Ended up as a pretty big snow event (8-14 inches). I remember Bruce Schwoegler seemed almost beside himself about 2 days before the 3/7 finale saying how there was a decent chance the current snow would get washed away....lol. Yeah this seems like the reverse....we may pick up an inch or two in a couple different waves and then the Tuesday event ends up mostly IP/ZR.....guess we'll see. Could still break colder like '96 did inside 48 hours.

Euro is gonna be a thump to sleet/ZR on the 2/18-19 system.

Also, looking more closely, it gives another light around of about an inch or so on Monday afternoon/evening...transitioning to sleet.

Euro gives more like 1-2" for a chunk of SNE on Saturday night/early Sunday.

Kevin gets his ZR at least....that's a pretty good icing event over the interior.

A lot of us call them dippin' dots too....since they look like the dippin' dots ice cream snack you buy at amusement parks or the mini mart.

GGEM was all alone about 3-4 cycles ago....totally schooled the competition on this one from 6 days out.

Euro looking phasey....take 'em down for south of CON

Ukie not biting on the phase idea. Guidance all over the map.

GGEM sort of follows Reggie....mostly ZR and rain....sleet way into NNE on that run. That's nearly a full phase with the northern stream which seems unlikely, but that is how the storm would look if that happens.

Needs to be a lot warmer for ZR....not sure I see it, but I suppose its possible if we keep phasing the northern stream. RGEM was doing that.

Yeah pretty much....this is weak. Still have to watch if guidance ramps up QPF in the final 24-36 hours since a lot of the analog setups are more robust....but it looks like this one is going to just be a C-1" deal for may....maybe a spot higher amount north of pike and then some FZDZ...maybe a pinger here or there.

Yep, the classic "pixie dust" sleet with frigid surface temps. You get these crappy flakes forming below the warm layer so the sleet is more like a 3 or 4 to 1 ratio.

More snow north.

The arctic cold in low levels is really impressive even at like 900-925mb....definitely more of a sleet sounding. You want torched 850s for ZR....these 850s are barely around 0C. You aren't getting ZR when you are barely above freezing in the warm layer and like -9C at 925mb, lol. That is a paint peeler if I ever saw one.

This definitely qualifies as a "warm bum-bums in the car" Tip post.

Wow that is an epic pellet-fest south of the pike that run.

GFS looking phase-y too....definitely going to be warmer.