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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I'm definitely not sold on these near-whiffs. I'm not telling people to expect these obscene amounts, but that baroclinic leaf is likely to be further NW than many show unless we see changes aloft.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Maybe, but i think some of these globals are allowing the baroclinicity to escape too quickly.
  3. ORH_wxman
    V16 GFS is a bit late to the party too. Not gonna get it done for anything higher than advisory stuff except for downeast.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Pounding huge aggregates in this heavy band....can hear some pingers mixed in too, but it's prob 80-90% snow at the moment.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Kind of amazing how differently models are handling the evolution of the upper air low even 48-60 hours out.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Sleet line trying to press northeast though it's struggling a bit southwest of ORH
  7. ORH_wxman
  8. ORH_wxman
    Too bad we can't see a few more panels of the 3km NAM...that was about to be a real weenie solution for E MA into Maine I think.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Absolutely ripping. PRob half an inch down. Too bad it won't last all that much longer...looks nice.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Weird. BOX dualpol on weathertap isn’t updating. Must be their site.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Already busted down south. ORH getting blitzed at the moment.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Of course dual pol goes down at box at a great time. No update since 8:23 (regular base reflectivity is still updating)
  13. ORH_wxman
    Banter y’all.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Yeah the euro slowly getting better. You can see how close this comes to a really big hit and I’d expect a bigger solution anyway even if the upper air didn’t change.
  15. ORH_wxman
    This first one you posted did. He’s in Methuen now not Wilmington. It’s not worth parsing over the NAM run anyway but he’d do quite well imho even if he didn’t jackpot that run. He might not get 12”+ but probably at least 8-10.
  16. ORH_wxman
    One of the few storms you would’ve done noticeably better in Methuen than Wilmington.
  17. ORH_wxman
    For Kevin it could easily be an advisory 3-6” event if there’s no earlier capture...he’s interior and elevated enough that it will snow with the residual WAA stuff on the front end. This airmass isn’t as bad as Dec 5th...there’s at least some dry dewpoint drain from that high to the north. If closer to the coast with little elevation then I’d want the rates to pound more.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Not necessarily. There’s plenty of storms I’ll worry more about a scraper or whiff than an amped solution. This is definitely not one of them despite seeing several weak SE solutions on the euro.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Doesn’t have to move NW to get a more tucked track. Just look at 18z NAM. You just need a more defined vortmax...ULL track and vortmax track are already plenty far enough NW for a hugger type solution. It’s just a matter of capturing that sfc baroclinicity early enough.
  20. ORH_wxman
    I think he was asking from our point of view further south.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Yes.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Jerry's turn for the jackpot? Just wait one run if you don't like it.
  23. ORH_wxman
    RGEM is actually going to capture it in a good spot for eastern spots...a little different than the NAM.
  24. ORH_wxman
    RGEM not as amped as 12z so far...which isn't terribly surprising since it was one of the most amped models at 12z
  25. ORH_wxman
    Cold layer below the warm tongue is pretty deep for the first several hours, so I wouldn't be surprised at a pretty good sleet-fest for a time. Esp in the zone between the pike and N CT/N RI.
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