ORH_wxman

There were definitely some zonked GFS and GEM runs in there a couple days ago...giving all different parts of SNE 12”+ (in some cases way more) depending on which run it was....but those all had a clear capture and stall down at a further south latitude which was never totally realistic imho. I’m still thinking the precip shield will be further northwest though on the initial burst than modeled for reasons discussed already many times. We’ll see if that improves on tonight’s 00z runs.

Yeah I actually thought the EPS was one of the better pieces of guidance all day. That said, I’d be lying if I said some of these paltry outputs like the NAM weren’t concerning.

My gut says it prob tickles down to 29-30 I think at elevation later Sunday/Sunday night. It will prob start near freezing Sunday afternoon though. 925s are like -2 or -3 and we have that weak high to the north so I think it will be hard to stay near 32 in elevated interior when steady snow is falling. Esp after dark.

Looks like there may be a CF pretty close to BOS-PVD line for at least a while. Maybe just NW of that. Should be below freezing on the west side of that overnight Sunday night. SE MA could struggle at 34 unless rates are higher...which they could be.

Tick tick tick...

Seriously...I remember like 5 days saying that anything before the first 8-10 days of January ends is gravy....lol. Now we might have two systems to follow.

Yeah I like the upper level track and would be surprised if there isn’t more qpf to the northwest of what is currently shown. Like I said before, maybe I’m wrong this time. It wouldn’t be the first time and certainly not the last, but just based on the core of the vort track and ULL, you’d expect more precip blossoming on that NW side than models are spitting out.

You need it to track south of SNE which it doesn’t on a lot of runs. Almost goes overhead more than anything.

Im not sure how much 6+ this will have in SNE. Might be a lot more 3-5ish if we can’t tuck in the baroclinic zone tighter. We’ll see how the next 12 hours trends though.

This isn’t far from what I think might happen. Kind of a broad brush advisory snowfall. Wouldn’t surprise me though to see a stripe of warning snow where some of the residual midlevel support is.

Perfect base builder

Difference is likely a lot more to come for eastern areas whereas euro was done after the initial shot. That hrrr run was starting to slow and back in from the east with the potent CCB.

I don’t think that part of the storm is going to hit SNE. It’s going to be the initial thump from the main vortmax that is pretty far west...that’s the part id expect to look better as we get closer. The ferocious CCB and stall is likely going to stay offshore though maybe eastern areas still get lucky.

Agreed.

Rhode Islanders lock in the RPM? Revenge for 3/7-8/13

I’d expect the sfc low to slowly become a bit more tucked even if the upper air stays the same. That’s what I was saying before. Same reason we saw those suppressed runs start disappearing on the dec 16-17 threat late in the game (and they still weren’t far enough north...except some of those rgem/GGEM runs) What I’m explaining is different than the actual stall. I’m just expecting a closer track than most guidance shows right now, but I’m guessing the stall doesn’t happen until into the Gulf of Maine. We’ve actually seen the stall trend further northeast with time as is usually the case. It’s still possible it could happen far enough southwest to impact E MA/E NH/far S ME so it’s worth watching but my guess is that the stall really only matters for Downeast.

Keeps ticking NW each run with the main sfc features.

It’s already come out on the cruddy maps. It’s well east of 12z. I’m still having trouble reconciling it aloft though.

12z run

A couple reasons....the models often focus on the sfc baroclinic zone which starts well SE of the ULL....but typically, the ULL will "tug" it northwest with time....in this case, they may be keying on little piece of energy embedded in the flow ahead of the main vortmax or convection which doesn't allow it to get yanked NW. The second reason is the models often underdo the actual vortmax strength in my experience. It will get stronger as we approach verification. They seem to weaken or damp them out too quickly. That said, the E models could be right. I'm not totally dismissing them. I'm just being skeptical of them.

Yeah I'm definitely not sold on these near-whiffs. I'm not telling people to expect these obscene amounts, but that baroclinic leaf is likely to be further NW than many show unless we see changes aloft.

Maybe, but i think some of these globals are allowing the baroclinicity to escape too quickly.

V16 GFS is a bit late to the party too. Not gonna get it done for anything higher than advisory stuff except for downeast.

Pounding huge aggregates in this heavy band....can hear some pingers mixed in too, but it's prob 80-90% snow at the moment.

Kind of amazing how differently models are handling the evolution of the upper air low even 48-60 hours out.