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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I can see that. Someone is gonna get 2 feet...best chance is prob west in Catskills but there is an unignorable chance it creeps into N litchfield county and parts of adjacent W MA.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Cranberry Bog joking aside....there's prob gonna be a secondary jack a bit north of them like near Blue Hill I feel like...maybe back to Foxborough. That typical interior SE MA zone where they will get slammed with lower level CCB stuff tomorrow and get some CF enhancement
  3. ORH_wxman
    Definite chance of a secondary smaller jackpot zone down there. Agreed.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Yeah you aren't jackpotting....i agree on that. But you're not going to get 7 inches of sand either I don't think. You're gonna get CCB action tomorrow.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Jackpot for New England might actually be in Litchfield county and adjacent SW MA....combo of big WCB hit before it fizzles and also getting clipped by the ML goodies.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Lol, my drawing is a rough approximation....could easily tickle that SE 5 or 10 miles.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Yeah you can see where the H7 WF is below in red....I put in the likely spot of the ML goodies based off that in the blue area....prob near the 600mb WF in this system.
  8. ORH_wxman
    He's actually in a really good spot on the Euro for ML banding....His area up to like MHT and then back WSW to near your hood.
  9. ORH_wxman
    You look like you're gonna get some really good snow growth for a time in the ML goodies.
  10. ORH_wxman
  11. ORH_wxman
    Waited until the final run before the storm. That's a good look though in all seriousness....good CCB action tomorrow AM...really cranking for your hood too.
  12. ORH_wxman
    The problem with the algorithm is that even if the max lift is below the DGZ, it is still saturated above that up to like -10 or -11C....that's not even close to being sleet. You're gonna get seeder-feeder easily. If the air went dry above the -5C layer, then maybe it could be sleet....but even then, we are SNE and stick out into the ocean, so we have a lot of salt nuclei available and ice crystals can form with salt nuclei at much warmer temps.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I don't think it would do a ton back as far west asbyou are, but it could add enhancement in the form of extra frictional convergence in eastern areas tomorrow AM....just something to watch.
  14. ORH_wxman
    It looks like the GFS is tapping some of the convection moisture into the conveyor belts better....it is notable in E MA/RI this run. Some of the guidance (including the GFS) is developing a bit of a lower-midlevel firehose from the east tomorrow morning....like 300 mile fetch at 40-50 knots)
  15. ORH_wxman
    I think it will be slightly east of 128....but the CF won't be stationary very long, it's going to collapse SE pretty quickly after about 10z.
  16. ORH_wxman
    I actually just did it
  17. ORH_wxman
    Figured I'd start this up....snow won't start in our forum until this evening (perhaps as early as 4-5pm in far SW CT)
  18. ORH_wxman
    It did do the weaker QPF thing again on the front end, lol. Though not quite as big a dropoff as previous off hour runs.
  19. ORH_wxman
    06z rpm (09z is still running)
  20. ORH_wxman
    At least you will return back to a good pack in NH. Might pick up some decent snow out of this one after it looking like a clean whiff a couple days ago.
  21. ORH_wxman
    That’s pretty weenie-ish considering it’s not done yet at 12z. Could prob tack several more inches on. Esp out east.
  22. ORH_wxman
    One thing that is a continued trend at 00z which started at 18z is the conveyors are looking better organized. It looked that way on the NAM and also on the rgem.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Here’s the final RPM weenie map for Jerry
  24. ORH_wxman
    Yeah Cory...3k often really jacks up coastals probably due to latent heat feedback on convection pumping heights up.
  25. ORH_wxman
    The scooter convection getting entrained a little? Kind of looks like t this run. That is ridiculous over your hood around 06z-09z
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