ORH_wxman

Tauntonblizz sucked back in on this run...pretty decent for SE MA on the front end.

12z Euro a tick colder than the 00z run through 54h. (didn't compare to 06z)

12z GFS is a good example of that NAO block doing a lot of dirty work. Notice how every system that makes an attempt to go west of us gets crunched underneath.

12z Ukie a tick colder as well.

We'll wait for when the correlation coefficient shows the sleet line rotting for several hours somewhere near Union CT before we dig that one up.

Yeah it brings maybe low end advisory snows down to MA/CT border or even into Kevin's hood in N CT....whereas the 00z run was more pike region and north.

There's a reason he's the best insurance salesman east of the Mississippi.

That is still an unbelievable snow depth map....lol. That was a couple days after the dual part MLK event in 2010.

Maybe we'll end up with a snowpack that looks like this

GFS coming in a tick colder too.

2010 MLK gradient

People need to think of patterns in terms of probabilities or chances. For example, lets say in a really average/medicore pattern we have a 2 in 8 shot of getting a solid snow event in any given 10 day period. In a garbage pattern its maybe 0 or 1 in 8. In an epic pattern, maybe we have a 6 in 8 shot. In a pretty good pattern, maybe it's 4 or 5 in 8. The point is, you "load the dice" from the baseline probability in a pattern that deviates from the baseline. So in a shitty pattern, you load the dice against you, in a good pattern, you start loading the dice in your favor. There are no guarantees, but you will gladly play the game with loaded dice in your favor since eventually, the law of large numbers will work out in your favor. Same thing applies when looking at patterns. I know it's just easier to demand a binary answer on whether big snows are coming or not....but hopefully the above helps visualize the probability angle a little better.

Huge coastals aren't typical in this pattern....they can happen, but more likely you;ll get SWFE and redevelopers and overrunning events. The NAO block is very important in this type of pattern because without it, cutters have an easier time getting west of us rather than being forced underneath. You can still get cutters in this pattern, but it's just harder....you need a solid phasing event.

RGEM looks colder through 48h too.

I'm hoping for 2-3" and some good sleet....that would likely survive. (that actually happened in 2019 after the 12/18/19 system)

Lots of frozen that run even south of where the main snow shield is. PRobably a pretty solid pelletfest here after a couple inches of snow.

Looks like the 12z NAM will come in flatter/colder than 06z....at least temporarily stopping the trend from last night.

At the end of the day, people will measure the pattern in snowfall. Not potential. We all know this. We've gotten skunked in good patterns in the past with meltdowns and then all of the sudden we get hit and all the melts get relegated to a wall of shame satire archive (see late January 2013/earl Feb 2013 before the blizzard showed up....or early/mid Jan 2015 before the snow started). Doesn't mean we get an epic stretch...people shouldn't expect it. But I feel pretty good about an active stretch with plenty of chances going forward....and some of those are going to hit.

That pattern is like a carbon copy of Dec 1970....obviously it can produce....but similar patterns (like Jan 1969) also show you how you get kind of skunked.

It's not going to be straight rain to ORH unless this warms a lot more.

I love the pattern going forward. Tons of chances in these types of patterns. I think I’ve always said -PNA/-NAO is my favorite pattern for New England. The key is keeping the NAO block stout. If that slips, then you’d get a lot more cutters.

Yeah I think pike region is mostly toast in this one. Prob an inch or two on the front but that won’t be enough to survive until Xmas unless it’s basically all sleet. Gotta hope for a tick colder on the 12z runs, but my guess is the opposite. They will keep nudging warmer...that’s the typical MO for these systems as we get closer.

I think that is a great spot. Prob at least high end advisory snows (4-6”) but could be a bit more. We’ll see how this trends in the final couple days. My gut is this bumps a little north but maybe becomes juicier. Hopefully no ZR there. Sleet isn’t a big deal for the resorts if that happens for a time.

18z gfs came in a tick colder than 12z.

3” of sleet-infused pack would prob do it. Otherwise we’ll have to hope something in the 12/23-25 range works out....which it might. Pattern is ripe for it.