ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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18z euro looks a smidge more amped through 36.
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Yeah you’d basically have to double that for 90th percentile imho. Maybe not quite double it further east but close.
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1/27/11...different type of system though. That was the one where Ginxy to Kevin was getting 4” per hour for a couple hours straight and Kevin slept through it.
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Also make sure we specify that it could have been pre-local on the 8s. I think that was sometime in 1996 they implemented that schedule. Prior to that, the local forecast was sometimes played within 5 minutes of the previous one.
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That was a nice little move on the GFS. That’s probably double digits for SE MA that run but it extends some pretty good snows well inland.
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This feels like the classic tickle back SE storm in the final 12-18 hours. Tonight and tomorrow there will be some more zonked runs that start spooking the southeast crew and then it will settle back to reality a little bit in the final run or two.
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Yeah it might have actually been better up your way..it doesn't turn east quick as quick as the NAM
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This is prob the best frame for Philly
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That one would give PTSD to anyone in SNE who remembers it....I think it gave LI a foot and even croaked ACK but basically whiffed everyone else (maybe like 1-3" for far southern areas)
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RPM and 3km NAM agree...that's an unbeatable combo
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LOL at 3km NAM....that is ridiuclous. Like trying to pull a 12/9/05 or something with a 6 hour nuclear detonation
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Northern stream is fighting it a bit on the 18z NAM but southern stream is going wild, so it might overcome it.
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Euro was kind of the last hold out on a major system for 2/9 last night but finally went flatter at 12z today. Given the fast flow and multiple vortmaxima, we definitely cannot rule out a quick change back to more amplified on future guidance, but just looking at the pattern, it seems like the one behind it is probably more favorable for a larger QPF dump as the PV retrogrades west a bit.
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That thing is getting more and more sheared out every run....I am starting to agree with Tip that we punt that one in favor of 2/12-2/13. We might still get something light out of 2/9, but I am doubting a major QPF producer from that one.
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Prob pretty good up into TAN too.
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This run is going to be good at least for SE areas...might get central SNE good too.
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Yes it is. You can already see it at 30 hours.
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Yeah I'd never want to make changes just based on the GFS/NAM/Canadian suites....I'd want to see Ukie and of course most importantly the Euro before making a big change that will potentially affect many people's plans.
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They'll bump them up if the Euro jumps on board with bigger amounts.
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Look at the wind flags on that map...you'll see they are SE at 50-60 knots over LI sound but by the time you get into NW CT, they are southwest at 40 knots. There will be a pretty good cutoff in the heavier stuff with that type of look.
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Yeah in this event you sort of want to be right on the nose of that 700mb low that is pointing toward S RI there....maybe just a hair north of it. There's where you're gonna find some intense banding.
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One things also in the 2/7/03 event was that the QPF wasn't a huge bust, I think BOS had under a half inch of QPF and even blue hill wasn't much more than that. It was that there was an absolute perfect cross-hair sig in that with a deep SGZ so it was basically 20 or 25 to 1 blower powder.
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I think BOX had upgraded to advisory late in the game in the overnight package for the pike region. I remember the advisory being out (the old snow advisory), but nobody saw the obscene mesoband coming. Obviously back in those days, the model guidance was a little harder to parse for that kind of thing.
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Yes there are a few similarities to that one....but it's not as robust of a shortwave and the orientations will be more NE to SW rather than the bands tilting more vertical in that 2/9/17 event. Both occurred in a very fast flow environment and assuming the modeling is correct on this one, both have excellent ML fronto features.
