ORH_wxman

06z Euro tickled SE. First one I checked this morning was the 06z NAM and I went “holy shit, are we going to get crushed?”...then checked the rest of the guidance.

Lol...I noticed that both GGEM and GFS pushed through an impulse earlier than previous runs for 2/11. There’s several impulses along that arctic boundary...def a bit ‘94-esque.

Think I’m going 3-5” here. But hope I’m wrong and we get 6”+. Should be an interesting nowcast with the bands.

GFS might be a hair SE of 18z. Pretty close.

Ageostrophic component is more favorable. Easier wetbulbing near sfc than the last disaster straight off the water for hours. I could see the early stages of this one freaking people out though.

3k made a good bump too. More than than the 12k did.

00z NAM looks a tick NW through 9 hours.

My threshold seems to be around 5” on this driveway. I’ll hand shovel if it’s less than that but once higher I don’t want to deal with it. Smaller driveway, sure...but this horseshoe driveway gets long quickly when your moving 6”+ by hand.

Agreed. Up at our latitude we may be waiting until almost lunchtime to start and it ends maybe a quarter or two into the super bowl.

It’s actually still “modeled”. Granted they use remote sensing and a few actual obs from coops to try and make it as accurate as possible, but at the end of the day, it is still a model that’s producing that. They are pretty good, but I’ve seen them struggle sometimes...esp late in the season.

Nice little tick NW on 18z euro

At least that much. Prob more in shaded spots.

No. Just those candy canes. They got frozen into the ground. Couldn’t get them up.

Man pack here...taken this afternoon

BOX discussion is a good read but not sure I buy the great snow growth for the ORH-BOS-PVD triangle. Esp on some of these solutions where the banding isn’t getting much NW of SE MA...PVD might be best spot in that triangle. The best omega is well above the SGZ on a lot of soundings I checked. However, very frequently we’ll see the fronto bands get a little NW of guidance so using that logic you could make a case. Still, I’m not all that enthusiastic about warning snows here. BOS-PVD may be in a decent spot but worried that we’ll be too far NW in the 495 belt and westward.

Reggie tickled NW. pretty close to NAM and Euro now. Still some very small differences. I’d not have any confidence in warning snows BOS-PVD northwestward. But it’s not going to take much for some banding to be NW of model progs to cause warning snows well into the interior.

Here you go Jerry

3km looks pretty similar to 12km too. Prob warning snows for SE MA and into southern half of RI. Advisory snows or just below advisory elsewhere.

18z will be out in a few min

NAM looking SE through 15 hours. It was the furthest NW at 12z so we’re starting to close the goalposts I think. The southern stream looks a bit stronger this run but it looks to me like it’s getting kicked more by northern stream.

HRRR went back a little NW. Looks close to the 12z euro now.

What a weenie pattern...riding the line a bit on some events but overall that is a nice look. Tuesday: Friday: And finally around 2/16-2/17 it’s getting pretty far out there, but still a signal:

Nice look for your ‘hood on that run.

Yeah I was only comparing run to run. It was slightly SE early but the northern stream wasn’t pressing as much this run so it allowed the system to make a little more northward progress late in the game before getting kicked back east...so it was actually slightly better at the end.