ORH_wxman

2/17 is not for this thread. Sunday looks like 2-4" on the GGEM

Yeah they are on the edge of SW CT...maybe the northern edge of SW CT if you divide the state into quarters.

You all in SW CT are in the best spot for this one....unlike yesterday. Hopefully you grab a couple

I won't be surprised at a few flakes at all, but I will be surprised if we get 1-2 inches.

Assuming fixed 30 year interest rates remain near 3%, prob a household income around 150k before taxes if you want to keep your mortgage below 25% of your monthly income. But that income threshold can vary depending on how much other debt/expenses you have....for a couple around 30 years old and also each paying 500-700 bucks per month in student loan debt, they couldn't afford it responsibly at 150k combined unless they went all Dave Ramsey on the rest of their budget....they'd prob need another 20-25k per year.

Except for the times they don't and dry arctic air chews it up.

NAM gets some light snow into the south coast area tonight...esp SW CT. As Ryan mentioned yesterday, the SGZ is really deep, so an inch or two of fluff down there can't be ruled out. Best chances are def SW CT....like Greenwich to BDR, but maybe slightly further northeast can get a little too. There's a lot of low level dry air to fight though, so I'd be skeptical north of there.

84h NAM actually looks pretty threatening....but we all know the caveats there. Models are likely going to struggle for several cycles here with handling the PV and the energy rotating around it. Wouldn't surprise me if we aren't really sure on Sunday until pretty close in.

Sweet house and nice plot....I think that house would own me though instead of me owning the house.

It's almost like he forgot that just happened in 2/1-2/2....he gets like 16" of firehose while Scooter was dripping in an inch of slush.

Yep....128 went totally out of control post-recession....like 2013-2018 the prices all went nuclear. They still are going nuclear, but they went from semi-affordable back in like 2013 or 2014 to completely unaffordable for middle class in that span. 495 belt is doing that right now. We got really lucky on our timing here....when you look at home values around here, they of course rose coming out of the bottom in 2012ish and rose steadily until like 2015, but then plateaued for about 18 months until around the time we bought our house in January 2017. Then in that spring of 2017, things went absolutely bonkers and they haven't stopped. They accelerated during the pandemic. So our place which we bought for 345k, you probably couldn't get for 450 right now. It's not like we have a big house (as people have seen in my pics), it's a 3 bedroom ranch with a walkout basement....granted, a nice little piece of land just under an acre, but still. This house shouldn't sell for 450-500k.

It's amazing the type of homes selling for 500k+ here in Holliston right now. Almost seems like all the "value" is in the 600-700k range at the moment. You get a little dumpy ranch or Cape similar to my house for 450-525k, but then if you spend 650k, you can get 4 beds and 2500-3000 sq ft.

Sunday looks like advisory level stuff at the moment, but can't rule out bigger yet. Cold profile, so may have to watch snow growth potential for another fluffer.

Pretty amped. A lot of non-snow in that. It’s more amped than all the other guidance though so no reason to sweat it at this range.

I feel like that is going to get chewed up really easily by dry arctic air....maybe south coast can watch for minor accums.

Yeah this is the most since Mar ‘18 here as well. I think we peaked at 27 or 28” that month. We have a legit chance to pass that if we can cash in on one of these larger threats coming up. But this one has a much better chance at being the longest sustained pack since 2015. Recent years since 2015 have been pretty cruddy during mid-winter so we’ve melted down to bare ground easily. This one started 1/26 here, so we’ll see if we can run the table into 2nd half of March or better.

I haven’t gone to the undisturbed part of my yard yet since before Sunday but i guessing around 18-20” is the pack depth.

Nice refresher of 3.5”. Enjoyable even though it was on the lower end of expectations (I was expecting 3-5” here for the last couple of days). Pack is getting impressive with those 4 consecutive snow events (1/26, 2/1, 2/7, 2/9) totaling 31 inches.

Really sweet flakes in this band

Both euro suite and GFS suite are liking the 2/16 threat as well but the model positions are reversed from 2/14. Euro suite is more amped while GFS suite is a little more offshore. Plenty to track though...might be more systems beyond 2/16 as well since the pattern remains favorable.

Some differing opinions on guidance for 2/14...euro suite is more suppressed while GFS is more amped.

Breaching 3” now looks like eyeballing it. Prob won’t reach 4” but may get close. Coming down pretty good in this band but looks like it gets much lighter in an hour

Pretty good echoes now in that. Prob some 1" per hour stuff or close to it.

Nice band from ORH county to Middlesex county now

Lol, that's for 1 inch of snow over 24 hours. Pretty decent chance we at least get scraped by some residual lift, but the question is whether we get something major.