ORH_wxman

Trying to make one last push northward but you can see the steady shunt east going on

They are usually even worse up in ORH county. For years when I forecasted full time, I always had to slice anywhere from 4-8F off model 2m temps (and sometimes more in the correct setup) during winter wx events.

Glad to see weathertap finally updated their local radar zooms. Now we just need to wait another 30 minutes for a useful loop.

Yeah...the key is buying it though. So did we believe the 3km NAM? Most of us prob thought it was too zonked. It prob will still verify as too zonked since it was giving ORH like 0.75 of qpf. I knew the ratios would be good in the band but the question was how high would they be just outside the band and where would the band line up? It’s really hard to forecast based on high ratios. I’ve been burned before on that. But either way, I figured this would be a really fun nowcast event. Hasn’t disappointed. We’re getting smoked here and we’re not even in the heart of the band.

Nobody had 20 to 1 ratios either. I guarantee a lot of people will have ratios close to that number.

No I’m in Holliston. I frequently report from winter hill but not right now. We’ve been getting on the northern fringe of that death band here at times but I’m guessing someone like 5-10 miles southeast has 5-6” by now. Prob near Walpole and Medway.

Man, that band in Norfolk county right now. I’m on the northern edge of it and absolutely ripping again but it must be 3” per hour stuff in the heart of it.

Back into the edge of “the band” after being outside for about half an hour. Flake size has drastically increased again. Breached 3”

Walpole/Foxborough must be getting absolutely wrecked under that band. Like 35-40 dbz.

Yep I’ll be interested to see what final liquid equivalents are.

Yes I agree. His ratios are likely pretty close to accurate. I bet 20 to 1 blower at minimum in this band.

Getting wrecked on the northern side of that band right now. Must be even better about 5-10 miles south of here. About an inch in the past 30 min.

Regional composite only radar updating right now. Infuriating.

Getting smoked now. Great snow growth

This is kind of infuriating. Weathertap isn’t updating their local scans...BOX/OKX...checked both of them. At least the regional scans are updating.

Excellent snow growth in this. Moderate snow and 29F

Might get into MA in a bit. Hoping I can catch it here. I like the latitude gain it is making.

@Ginx snewx @JC-CT

Radar looks pretty decent.

RGEM and GFS both ticked NW a little. Good sign especially for SE peeps who will want bigger rates with more marginal sfc temps.

Nice bump NW on the latest HRRR.

Rap has a nice weenie band from ginxy’s area up near my hood. Hopefully it’s right. Could squeak out low end warning if that happened.

Tuesday looking pretty nice on EPS. Not a big event but could be a nice advisory snow

Looks like that changes this week at least. Sprawling Scooter high makes a grand entrance.

Tblizz whining his way to 6-8”? The thing to watch is to see if perhaps the shortwave doesn’t decay quite as quick as model guidance shows...and we end up with some huge bands getting into the southeast half of SNE like the NAM showed. I think the odds are definitely against that but it can’t be ruled out. There’s going to be some pretty potent bands that are tantalizingly close and it not impossible they inch a little further NW. I haven’t really seen any notable trend on the HRRR other than the 09z run was really paltry, 10z came back to look kind of like most models and 11z didn’t move much from 10z though it looked a little better inland. I’ve been waiting to see if it makes a move....same with RAP. RAP looks a lot better than HRRR but haven’t seen it move much in the last few hours. One of them will be wrong.