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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Yeah it was pretty clear early on that the Friday system was hanging back and slower to exit.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Yeah those changes early on were enough to hold in the cold a bit better. Stil want to see this not track west of us...but well see if other guidance follow ssuit.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Yeah this is prob gonna be like 00z....still pretty amped but not quite as much as 06z.
  4. ORH_wxman
    GFS is prob gonna be east of 06z....ULL is slower to exit over Nova Scotia. Not that this thing could go much further west than the 06z GFS had it.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Cape has ptype issues for a chunk of it....but if that creeps west, then it would be snow over other areas.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Man, it gets the heavy stuff on the Cape now....if that can come another 30-40 miles west then that would be a big hit for E MA and maybe RI.
  7. ORH_wxman
    I;m going 1990s technology and using the Garcia method to forecast snowfall for the next storm.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Was hoping to see the RGEM to get a handle on the NAM's Friday trends....see if they had any support. But Looks like a no go today.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Where are you getting the 12z CMC already?
  10. ORH_wxman
    Yeah if we're getting a storm into NYC with decent antecedent airmass, then i could see a pretty good thump for ORH and other interior locations...esp N of pike.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Looks like the canadians aren't bothering to run the RGEM today.
  12. ORH_wxman
    I think GFS uses FV3 core.
  13. ORH_wxman
    NAM has like -23C at 925 get down to the pike....lol. That's below 0F at the sfc if that happens.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Yeah NAM is world's different from the GFS at the end of the run....doesnt mean much yet, but it's better than having it shows something as amped or more amped.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Scooter down to PYM might get advisory snows on the 3km.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Very efficient delivery too for us...almost due north to south vector.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I just posted to luke how this thing is still positively tilted over the TN valley on the 06z GFS and the friggin' thing ends up in BGM....lol.
  18. ORH_wxman
    In the original solutions before we had much of a storm, the shortwave was just sliding off the southeast coast with no consequence and we were discussing how wave #3 would be the one.....what's happening since then is that shortwave #2 digs way down south and slows down so that when shortwave #3 approaches, it's partially phasing it allowing it to climb the coast as an inland runner. But yeah, even on the 06z GFS, the trough is positively tilted still at the MS River...even over the TN Valley too.
  19. ORH_wxman
    In Steve's defense, the GEFS aren't skewed as much to the west as the EPS....the 06z OP GFS is basically the furthest west member. But the trend definitely needs to halt.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Not sure we'd get much snow if this keeps going west. lol.....right now we have a thump to rain.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Yeah but it started at 168...we're now getting into the 120 range...the lead time is almost as important as the trends. The closer you get, the more confidence there is in the solutions. I'm not writing it off yet, but I'm saying we really need to see some movement in the next cycle or two.
  22. ORH_wxman
  23. ORH_wxman
    This has been a very strong trend west....it could go back east and it wouldn't surprise me, but we're starting to get into the time range where really large moves aren't expected, so I think we're gonna need to see some movement today back eastward.
  24. ORH_wxman
    Look at how skewed westward those lows are into interior E PA....we need a pretty big change at 12z or its lights out for a big event....obviously there would be some front end snow (more the further north you go), but a lot of the region would flip
  25. ORH_wxman
    I think it might actually go further west....not a lock mind you...but it's becoming more and more supported....all the ensemble sensitivity is still westward. 06z EPS has a lot of members tracking through VT and NY State now.
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