ORH_wxman

This run was actually run on my laptop...not the NCEP servers.

The northern stream energy that turns this north is coming in at a shallower angle of attack this run...so 12z GFS will be E of 06z unless something else offsets that

Because of such a strong CF look on this, someone is going to get obliterated on the other side of the CF

Yeah unlike the last storm that tracked through BGM, the sfc front gets pretty well established early on over the coast or just SE of the coast depending on the solution.

Yeah it's pretty nice.....but if I was being perfect, for a storm this deep and this sharply stem-winding at 5+ days out, I'd want to see it a little east with fewer western inland runners. There's a clear skew west there.

John McClain is warming up to the light the runway with those western members

White Snake winter. Fully expect this to run up Hudson by the time we’re to Wednesday runs.

Yes.

Yep. We knew. This could easily run up the CT Valley. There’s still an eternity for this to trend too.

Good to see some more OP runs getting on board. Validates the ensembles from earlier a bit more.

This is one of those lows that will go north into the gulf of maine if it can track near the BM

One more image for our NNE peeps

Pretty good set of lows that would hit here

Yeah there is definitely an anecdotal element to it for sure. But in some cases (like maybr this one?), you can use ensemble spread to hedge as well. Like right now, there’s considerable spread to the west which is frequently a red flag in coastals.

Yeah I think sometimes though you can gauge the pattern and correction probabilities…but this may not be one of those cases. Like, for example, in a SWFE setup, I don’t want to be in the bullseye 3-4 days out. They definitely tick north more often than not. Doesn’t happen all the time but I’ll play the odds. As for this system, I feel like this has the ability to slingshot sharply north so I don’t mind it being a little offshore. I want the scenarios to be a whiff or a crushing. No BGM or ALB tracks. I get that further west in western MA and W CT might feel differently.

We have a few cycles before it matters a lot. This system is still like 5.5-6 days out and there’s plenty of ensemble support still. I do think a regression on the 00z suite would be a bad sign but status quo wouldn’t necessarily be awful.

18z GFs isn’t gonna get it done

That’s why I rank 2015 well below the other monsters. Yeah, I got 34”+ on winter hill, but so much fluff factor inside that band, lol…don’t get me wrong, amazing storm and I’d love to experience it again, but give me Dec 92, Apr 97 or even the back to back Dec 96 storms. Even Feb 2013…ASOS grossly underestimated that QPF…prob had around 3” melted. Just massive amounts of QPF dumped in the form of man snow.

Or it’s occluding. You typically want to be in the goods during the period of max strengthening.

On the next frame there is a member that is 946 just east of the Cape.

QPF queens can like that there’s decent precip pretty far west on the EPS mean

Relative to the northern stream it doesn’t. If we just view the southern energy by itself then the gfs looks worse but when we view it relative to the northern stream it doesn’t. GFS is slower overall in the flow so the northern stream isn’t running as far out ahead of it as the euro is. At 108h, the GFS has the southern energy near the 4 corners region but the northern vortmax is near the Iowa/Nebraska border…the Euro though has the southern energy a little bit east in NM, but that northern vortmax is over Detroit.

And recall why it was a yes….it dumped the energy in the southwest and waited for the northern stream to outrun it and then amplify behind it. If that same bias is in play here, then it corrects to a big hit.