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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Something happened with their high temps back in 2019. Look at how the yellow dots (high temps) have a step-change in late 2019...the low temps don't seem affected too much:
  2. ORH_wxman
    ORH only got down to 31F during that October stretch, so I don't think BOS was wrong in 2009. We know both BOS and ORH don't radiate, so if ORH only managed 31F, then BOS didn't get below freezing.
  3. ORH_wxman
    The whole point of the shield and fans is to remove that bias. ASOS temps are taken in the shade too...the thermometer is inside a little box. The entire bias will never be totally removed because the ambient air is probably affected too much by the sun hitting darker surfaces near the ASOS, but it shouldn't be more than a degree or so even taking that into account if it is properly sited away from the pavement.
  4. ORH_wxman
    EPS are starting to show it too near the end of the run...you can see how the N PAC is definitely shuffling. It could be rushed, but I'm leaning toward the change....it fits a lot of La Nina climo anyway.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Latest 32F by station: BOS: 12/6 (2009) ORH: 11/12 (1977) BDL: 11/11 (1920) PVD: 11/19 (1935)
  6. ORH_wxman
    Do you mean 36F? Official frosts are not tracked...they use 36F as the marker, but we all know 36F comes in many different flavors and many won't produce frost. Freeze is a lot easier...it's just first date of 32F
  7. ORH_wxman
    Growing season is over in all of NNE and it's over in most of MA too....so they won't issue any advisories in those spots going forward.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Pretty decent displacement of the stratosphereic vortex looks progged....toward Siberia. That should be very good for enhancing cryospheric generation there. As for pattern change in November? Not sure when that might happen, but the weeklies do have a noticeable change around the 2nd week of November.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Recency bias.
  10. ORH_wxman
    I think the 70s are done after tomorrow. At least for a while....next week doesn't look warm at all on the Euro. GFS tries to cut the late week storm to our west which would warm sector us for a day or so, so we'll see what happens there. Euro CADs New England though with high pressure nosing down.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Yeah there’s a lot of years down there where it’s almost a shutout. Maybe a couple 1-4” events and that’s it. It can be brutal for snow lovers. That said, it probably makes you appreciate the snow more. There’s plenty of people here who bitch at 8” snowstorms because they didn’t get 17”.
  12. ORH_wxman
    I might be able to make this one. No guarantees, but optimistic.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Next week will definitely have some chillier days. Might be two cold pushes....one Sunday through Tuesday....then maybe a relaxation Wed/Thu and then another next weekend. We'll see how it plays out. I wish Sunday's cold push was a little stronger....ideally we'd get a hard freeze either Sun night or Mon night to kill the bugs and then go back to above normal temps, but it looks more like lows in the 30s and not quite a freeze except for the typical rad spots.
  14. ORH_wxman
    2009-2010 wasn't "Cold" here...it was slightly above average. But 2015-2016 was an absolute furnace. '09-'10 was cold though over a large portion of the country that does not include New England. December 2009 was quite cold. Like for ORH, December was about -1.5 departure, January was almost dead average, and Feb was +2 so it averages out to a pinch above normal but 2015-2016 was +12 (all time warmest December), +2.5, and +3.5....which makes the entire winter 6 degrees warmer than 2009-2010.
  15. ORH_wxman
    The 2009-2010 and 2015-2016 winters were not alike at all. 2009-2010 was cold across most of the conus including into the mid-Atlantic and southeast...even if where we were was a bit above normal. It was a lot snowier than 2015-2016 too across most of New England. The patterns were completely different.
  16. ORH_wxman
    No, all the stations with longer periods have record highs of 85+ for today.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Correct. PEople need to distinguish between what "They think" and what the official thresholds are. For NWS tracking, 33-36F is a frost.
  18. ORH_wxman
    12/16/07. That storm will live in infamy. I had a 3-6” forecast back then (and I was a little more bullish than other outlets)...only took about 3 hours to get obliterated.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Huge December and then it faded somewhat...esp south of pike. Same winter where we had the epic traffic disaster in the December 13th storm that came in like a wall mid/late morning.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Yep. I posted in the October thread that very warm Sept/Octobers do not scare me at all (if anything they are a good sign for winter)...a torch November would spook me a little but even those aren’t a death knell. We start looking up toward AK once we get into mid-November. We basically just want to avoid a developing death vortex up there. One-eyed pigs are what scares us.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Top 5 warmest Sept/Oct combos for BOS: 2017 1971 2007 1947 1961 Snowfall for those following winters were all above average. Sept/Oct warmth definitely does not scare me. November torches scare me more.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Oct 2017 was even warmer.
  23. ORH_wxman
    The SSTA pattern in the North Atlantic that shows up in 1995 and 2010 is called the North Atlantic tripole. You have warm up near Greenland, cold pool off new foundland and then warm again to the south of there. Its much more distinct in 2010 than 1995 which is kind of cold up near Greenland but there’s a small area of warm water near davis strait.
  24. ORH_wxman
    Wow that is utterly brutal for ORH. Exactly one ensemble member is above average.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Do you have a zoom-in of Ray's graph? His was a forecast, this looks like "Year to date" last winter.
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