ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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I’m not really that worried about a whiff on this. It has that look of ripping some good bands pretty far west…it’s always possible it gets more sheared as we get closer but usually when you see the energy consolidated at the base of the trough like that, it doesn’t trend sheared/flat
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It is. That’s prob a big solution for eastern areas.
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This storm gets tightly wrapped on the stronger solutions so it would collapse the R/S line pretty close to the ML center. This happened in storms like 1/12/11 where the low tracked over the Cape but the R/S line wasn’t that far NW of the canal. I think the south shore had a monster paste job in that one.
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Yeah EPS went back to pants tent pattern....you could see the OP run doing it to at the end of the run there around D10....and the EPS gets better and better beyond that as well.
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Theres also still a lot of spread. When you see this type of spread, you really shouldn't be living and dying with each OP run....the OP run is basically another ensemble member...maybe a slightly more skilled one, but just one member nonetheless.
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84h RGEM looked pretty similar too.
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The 00z OP Euro was actually on the western half of the ensemble envelope, so it wasn't likely to hold serve regardless of the other models.
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It's gonna be SE of 00z, but it is not going to be a whiff by any stretch.
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Not a single model shows it starting on Thursday. Maybe flurries near midnight at the earliest.
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WST hasn't reported snow all day. IT looks like it's trying to make a push though in the next hour or two.
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We became unbearable at some point in the 2010s....nobody in here ever canceled winter in December or early January....only Ji did that in the M.A. forum. Now we get it multiple times per winter in here.
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Yeah 950mb on the benchmark will probably verify.
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The ensemble guidance being pretty far west still is a solid red flag for assuming a whiff SE.
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2nd best model!!!
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Even aloft on GFS this doesn't really scream wide right to me
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Yeah it's prob good right now...lol....considering where other guidance is. I don't see this whiffing.
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Yeah a whiff is the least likely IMHO. Almost all the ensemble spread is to the left of most OP tracks.
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The mean looks pretty close to ACK. But still pretty good spread at this point.
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I actually like where this one is right now. You have pretty much all non-GFS guidance with a significant storm and the OP euro is on the western side of the EPS envelope. The classic 70/30 or 80/20 compromise would be ideal. Too bad it’s not 3 days out instead of 4 though.
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With omega that high in the sounding that dendrite posted, you also get garbage snow growth. Prob putrid bullets and plates which sublimate much faster too when they are trying to overcome dry layers.
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Hallucinations are going to be epic tomorrow.
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Yeah this is why I was laughing at the microanalysis of the 12z EPS. It took 6 hours to look different.
