ORH_wxman

He has to stay on brand...just slice off a couple inches.

Actually you posted 06z vs 12z....i was talking 00z vs 12z. 06z was definitely better than 12z.

Try 10 to 1 maps....Kuchie be messing with the ratios....the QPF is almost identical to 00z except a bit more up north and far west.

The QPF map ends up looking almost identical to 00z in the end...maybe a little better out west and up north than 00z.

Looks just a ahir less amped than 06z at 36 hours...but more amped than 00z.

The extreme magnitude of the RNA trough definitely mucked up some forecasts....even medium range forecasts, not just long range. Honestly, we had a legit good NAO block so even a slightly less deep RNA trough probably nets us a lot more cold and snow in December. But that's how the dice fall sometimes. The change in the PAC is pretty fortunate timing since we have lost the NAO blocking for the time being....we're going to be living off the Pacific. Some of the guidance hints at -NAO trying to come back later in the month but I'm not biting on that yet. My guess is any big NAO block would likely wait until later in the winter to return.

In our local news and growing up, the state is almost always divided as western/central/eastern, so that's how most of us view it. But if you are just using a very crude analysis for a storm, you can use east vs west sometimes.

Yeah if we're dividing into halves....I agree I just use ORH roughly as the midpoint (I think technically it's Rutland MA if you go by precise geography....and that's just 2 towns NW of ORH for those that don't know)...but if we divide into thirds with western/central/eastern....then I use 495 for the eastern boundary.

There's probably going to be some really good arctic outbreaks too in this pattern. The phased PNA/EPO ridge is a classic arctic outbreak signal for our area. It tends to push the PV more toward eastern Canada.

I kind of loosely consider it 495-eastward....but it's a subjective term.

Yeah at least there is good agreement on a good pattern for most of this month....but I'm hoping the GEFS are more correct because they are a Ron Burgundy pants tent rather than merely a good pattern.

You can throw the 12z Ukie in there too.

Ukie is actually pretty nice for E MA...BOS def would get warning criteria snowfall on that run.

No doubt it is in peril...but it seems way too close a call to punt the idea at 48 hours. It would be too close a call to punt at 24 hours IMHO.

I think 6-12 is still possible for eastern areas for sure.

Yes true....though I definitely thought we'd be battling more of a hugger 2 days ago...just based on the position of the trough as it goes neutral/neg pretty decently far west. But the confluence up north has fought that off pretty good. Still, I think that fairly far west trough positioning and potent vortmax can work in our favor now as we get into the final 48 hours.

Yeah i agree it looks like the "Worry east" crowd are right...but this is different from actually punting this event. There's nearly 2 days left and small changes can easily bring this pretty far west in terms of sensible wx....you have a VERY potent vortmax rounding the base of a well-placed shortwave. Some nuances in the downstream ridging and convective-robbing conveyors are preventing a major storm, but it's not hard to see how those nuances trend better.

I don't see a reason to forecast 2-3" here right now. Maybe well northwest closer to your hood is mostly out of the heavy snow but further east should not be punting this event. I still think even pretty far NW could get a decent band when looking aloft.

Why are people basically doing postmortems 42-48 hours before the event where small differences could mean the difference between 2-3" and 6-10"?

Yeah we're talking very minor changes in the end...it did make a late bid to tick west, but really not of much consequence. It still wants to follow the convection...we really need that vort to curl north and capture this thing....close to what some of the mesos are doing.

Might be making up some ground at 39 hours....looks like the low is not hugging the convection as much this run....we'll see in next frame.

12z GFS looks to be ticking slightly less amped than 6z through 30 hours.

Was there anyone who was saying I-95 was definitely going to mix?

There's isn't really very strong deformation in this setup...but there is definitely a banding signal for well northwest of the lower level reflection....so a fluff band in a separate stripe well northwest of the main jackpot area is likely IMHO. It won't be huge totals, but I wouldn't be shocked at one of those 6"+ deals inside the band where it drops 0.30" qpf.

Some of the guidance is trying to curl the storm almost due north very briefly (maybe 3-4 hours) when it gets about due east of ACK. That would have to be watched for prolonging the moderate/heavy snow for eastern areas on Friday morning. It's probably the strong vort trying to capture the sfc reflection back west from the convection.