ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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I like how the vort is pretty consolidated at the base of the shortwave on this one....that makes it harder to lose this to the east.
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Goes over ACK this run. That would be a crusher for a lot of SNE and prob into CNE.
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Not a big surprise but the NAM won't come in as amped as 06z was looking at 48 hours.
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Ensemble-based analogs are pretty tasty....Jan 2005, Jan 2009, Jan 2003, Jan 1994, Jan 1961 are all showing up as analogs as we get out into days 8-12. Hopefully that sticks. I agree with Scott that it looks like -PNA is trying to return near month-end, but we'll see. If a really good AK ridge gets established, then it might keep the PNA more near neutral late month and into early February which would be ideal.
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Yeah the surface is kind of meh...not one of those systems where it's 7F at ORH when it starts, but that doesn't matter because it's plenty cold off the deck. Type of system where it might start near the coast around freezing but then it drops to like 27-28 as the storm gets cranking. Interior is prob mostly in the 20s.
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Looks like a predawn to mid afternoon Friday deal.
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Yeah it kind of takes a wide-ish turn and then bombs rapidly, so when that happens, you can actually get it pretty close and still stay snow...plus antecedent airmass is strong. You'd prob need a canal cutter to mix 95 in this setup.
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This is coming back west at least somewhat IMHO. I don't know if it will be an actual hugger, but I'd favor something inside the BM.
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Yeah but if you're pimping a benchmark track, why are you saying I-95 will mix? They aren't sniffing a mix with a BM track.
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Flow gets pretty meridional.....I don't think it's going to be super dry.
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Starting to tighten up a bit though still plenty of spread....you can see that cluster near the BM though.
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Whats the best model now then?
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I’m not really that worried about a whiff on this. It has that look of ripping some good bands pretty far west…it’s always possible it gets more sheared as we get closer but usually when you see the energy consolidated at the base of the trough like that, it doesn’t trend sheared/flat
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It is. That’s prob a big solution for eastern areas.
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This storm gets tightly wrapped on the stronger solutions so it would collapse the R/S line pretty close to the ML center. This happened in storms like 1/12/11 where the low tracked over the Cape but the R/S line wasn’t that far NW of the canal. I think the south shore had a monster paste job in that one.
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Yeah EPS went back to pants tent pattern....you could see the OP run doing it to at the end of the run there around D10....and the EPS gets better and better beyond that as well.
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Theres also still a lot of spread. When you see this type of spread, you really shouldn't be living and dying with each OP run....the OP run is basically another ensemble member...maybe a slightly more skilled one, but just one member nonetheless.
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84h RGEM looked pretty similar too.
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The 00z OP Euro was actually on the western half of the ensemble envelope, so it wasn't likely to hold serve regardless of the other models.
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It's gonna be SE of 00z, but it is not going to be a whiff by any stretch.
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Not a single model shows it starting on Thursday. Maybe flurries near midnight at the earliest.
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WST hasn't reported snow all day. IT looks like it's trying to make a push though in the next hour or two.
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We became unbearable at some point in the 2010s....nobody in here ever canceled winter in December or early January....only Ji did that in the M.A. forum. Now we get it multiple times per winter in here.
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Yeah 950mb on the benchmark will probably verify.
