ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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You still trying to fly into BOS at 1pm Saturday?
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On the NAM, they kind of fujiwara'd and congealed back into one in the stall position which is why the solution was so weenie-ish.
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Trifecta (PV, northern stream and southern stream) looks better already on GFS through 24 hours....we'll see what fly shows up in the ointment later, but so far I'd expect it west of 06z
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ICON came west, if we even care (most of us don't)
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Yeah Reggie closes off just a little later/elongated, but it's a minor detail....it maybe just makes the difference between someone getting a 30 burger in banding vs 24. These minor nuances are going to happen between now and go-time....but the larger picture with the shortwaves is very good on these 12z runs so far.
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But it will nail the convective cell over Dubuque Iowa....no need to have any skill on east coast cyclogenesis.
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Stalls it south of the islands like the 12km...but it's definitely more compact...doesn't spread the heavier stuff very well to W SNE. Sharper cutoff.
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That said, this run is still going to drop a 30-burger....lol. If you are capturing the low down south of the islands, it's going to be obscene.
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This run would still be historic...it gets captured....just maybe not quite as obscene as 06z was. But these imperfections are expected...there's a reason 30-burgers are hard to get.
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Dual low...won't be as ridiculous as 06z because of that I don't think
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Doesn't look like that will happen this time...the PV problem usually shows up by 18z Fri to 00z Sat....but that isn't happening this time.
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NAM definitely looks more amped through 33 hours.
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Just a shade east of 00z with the goods down in SNE. But we’re talking like 10 miles. Up in Maine it was actually NW of 00z.
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Yeah good to see the 06z suite bump west. There is still some uncertainty on the capture location and stall length, etc. That will determine whether this is a historic storm or just a really big storm that doesn’t make it into top 10 status. Western crowd too is still pretty sensitive to 25 mile wobbles.
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Yeah it could. Anything that increases the ML fronto up against arctic air will produce a sharper cutoff. We’ll see if that is real or not though. Some runs are more pronounced than others.
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Yeah nothing wrong with that run overall. It just looked initially like it was gonna come west and then that TPV hit a brick wall or something and we ended up with a small tick east. Im not so worried about the small euro wobbles as I am relieved that other non-GFS guidance made decisive moves west.
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Heights in Quebec did it in for coming west.
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PV decided to stop lifting out fast by 42 so we’re behind on the heights up in Quebec by that point. But the two shortwaves still look great.
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Already a good start on the euro through 30 hours. The TPV lifting out quicker than 18z and both northern and southern stream out west look better. I assume that trifecta should lead this to come west at least a little.
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Not sure why they are struggling so bad with this system. The longwave trough really looks pretty similar on all guidance and even the handling of the shortwaves isn’t far off now. This has definitely been a pretty schizophrenic 24 hours…esp considering yesterday it really seemed like we were honing in on a solution.
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Yeah I don’t think many quite grasped how far west the 18z euro actually was. It really doesn’t need much of a move to just look like the Ukie/GGEM.
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RI used up 50 years of jackpot karma in the ‘78 storm…gotta wait until 2028 for them.
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Nope they already came out and were awful.
