ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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NAM definitely looks more amped through 33 hours.
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Just a shade east of 00z with the goods down in SNE. But we’re talking like 10 miles. Up in Maine it was actually NW of 00z.
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Yeah good to see the 06z suite bump west. There is still some uncertainty on the capture location and stall length, etc. That will determine whether this is a historic storm or just a really big storm that doesn’t make it into top 10 status. Western crowd too is still pretty sensitive to 25 mile wobbles.
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Yeah it could. Anything that increases the ML fronto up against arctic air will produce a sharper cutoff. We’ll see if that is real or not though. Some runs are more pronounced than others.
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Yeah nothing wrong with that run overall. It just looked initially like it was gonna come west and then that TPV hit a brick wall or something and we ended up with a small tick east. Im not so worried about the small euro wobbles as I am relieved that other non-GFS guidance made decisive moves west.
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Heights in Quebec did it in for coming west.
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PV decided to stop lifting out fast by 42 so we’re behind on the heights up in Quebec by that point. But the two shortwaves still look great.
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Already a good start on the euro through 30 hours. The TPV lifting out quicker than 18z and both northern and southern stream out west look better. I assume that trifecta should lead this to come west at least a little.
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Not sure why they are struggling so bad with this system. The longwave trough really looks pretty similar on all guidance and even the handling of the shortwaves isn’t far off now. This has definitely been a pretty schizophrenic 24 hours…esp considering yesterday it really seemed like we were honing in on a solution.
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Yeah I don’t think many quite grasped how far west the 18z euro actually was. It really doesn’t need much of a move to just look like the Ukie/GGEM.
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RI used up 50 years of jackpot karma in the ‘78 storm…gotta wait until 2028 for them.
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Nope they already came out and were awful.
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It’s amazing how much difference there is now not just in the actual track but also the speed. Some runs stall it for hours down near the island or the cape and some runs just rip it north east before even trying to capture it.
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It would be funny if after all the improvement the GFS has shown, it still completely gags on a huge coastal.
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Reggie had the Brady Anderson 50 HR season in 2015 but id still rather see it trend better than not.
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The euro coming in slightly better is a big deal imho to offset the earlier 18z trend. The euro has superior initialization so whatever the other guidance was “seeing”, it clearly didn’t affect the euro adversely. It doesn’t mean it’s right, but it makes me feel better about this not being some golden nugget piece of data that was ingested at 18z.
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We’re considering it. Staff will vote on it later.
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This run was quite a bit better for NNE peeps from your area to Phin. Seemed to curl that moisture back a lot better.
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You might give edh1981 a run for his money with this map.
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The end result looked slightly better than 12z.
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Yeah I actually think this might end up better than 12z. But there’s like 3 different trends I’m trying to follow.
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That TPV is actually lifting a bit faster. So who knows…lol.
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Actually the northern stream looks a little worse by 48h. It’s potent but it’s diving down a little shallower angle. So this will tickle east I think.
