ORH_wxman

Been getting weenie flakes here for the past 10-15 min.

Seems like the blocking goes nuclear after the 9th or 10th though. I think we'll have chances mid-month...but I agree. If we could have kept this weekend south and added to the snow pack, it would have added to the wintry appeal...but when you are dealing with a White Snake winter, you take what you can get. Deal with the meltouts.

Fixed your post.

Yeah those are your personal preferences. They just aren't everyone's. When I was in Texas, it was not nearly as bad to tolerate playing golf midday in the summer when I went to courses northwest of Austin in 100F heat with dews in the 50F range as it was when I'd play further east when it was 94/73. The latter was so much more taxing on the body.

I don't want 57 and overcast or drizzle...I just said I'd take it over nasty 90s with 70s dews. Ideal weather is warm and dry. I play golf. I hike. I take my kids outdoors a lot to ride bikes and playgrounds. Those all suck ASS in hot and humid weather just as much as 50s does (hiking actually might be way better with temps in the 50s).

If RGEM is correct, then I could see a nicer looking swath of snow....but GFS is bringing the low almost on top of me so I'd expect the best to be north....there will be a band of WAA precip ahead of it, but it's not as ideal as something like the RGEM which would prob have a quasi-stationary band somewhere down in SNE. If we can trend everything south another tick, then maybe it gets interesting for potential advisory snows.

Spring is mostly dogshit around here....it's somewhat better where you are being WOR and southwest, but out east, it's usually trying to put lipstick on a pig when hyping up spring. Once in a while we get a great one, but usually I'm expecting pretty regular rounds of garbage weather (sheet drizzle, cold rain, lot of clouds, etc)

Seems like precip might be a bit showery with the best forcing to the north in NNE....but can't rule out an inch or two....esp interior hills.

I'll take 57 and drizzle over 92/70 any day unless I'm going to the beach or pool.

If you can have sun with low wind this time of the year, it's usually pretty nice. Even when it's cold. It's those nasty CAA windy cold shots that are the worst....that and CAD cold rain. Not looking forward to Thursday's CAA cold shot.

Nobody honestly knows about snow threats at this point anyway....people might pretend they do, but when you start shortening the wavelengths in March, it becomes even harder to see storms from more than a few days out. I mostly just look to see if there is a cold source that any potential system could tap into...and that ingredient seems to be there mid-month, so to me that says a legit storm could be possible. But can't say anything beyond that. It could just be a 42F day that warms your ass in the seat of the car too.

The pattern might bust, but that's probably got some solid cold shots in it if that look pans out. You don't load up Canada with huge negative anomalies like that and usually escape....sometimes you do, but most of the time you will not.

What's your prediction for the 3/10-3/17 period?

New normals though....we got rid of a lot of the cold 1980s summers when they updated the normals last year.

Can't call it on snow threats yet with the way the pattern looks after 3/10. Here's the 5 day mean for 00z 3/11 to 00z 3/16...way too much cold loading into the source region.

Unless we get CAD'd at the surface which is very possible. Then it's complete trash with maybe a little icing and cold rain.

Trough out west gets super deep....so the 3/5-3/8 period looks mostly like trash....maybe some brief 'bouts of winter wx on the front end, but I think mid-month (beyond 3/10) is a lot more likely for the next real winter threat.

Wow. Legit whiteout here

Sfc usually CADs, so yeah…they’d be 37 degree rainstorms with maybe a spike to 50 for a few hours before the front passes. Rinse repeat. That’s why I’ll root for snow well into March unless it’s the rare pattern that can support a 2010 or 2012 where we get lots of 60s and 70s. I have no use for 38 and rain or 48 and sunny. Delay the spring misery as long as possible.

Yep. Might as well get some threats in that pattern rather than talk about how nice the 47F faux warmth feels with -5C 850 temps….or actually freezing our balls off when the occasional -20c shot gets us.

GFS trying to make 3/5-6 interesting

EPS looks pretty cold going into mid-March but the period from like 3/5-3/8 or so looks torchy.

Lol…I always have told myself that if I become mobile to the point of being able to leave in the middle of a school year (so prob not until after my kids are older), I would flee this place in late March or early April and not return until maybe Memorial Day (maybe earlier if weather permits as you said). Just an abysmal time of the year around here.

Yeah that vortex needs to come south. As modeled right now it’s too warm. It lifts out on the next panel or two and allows the western storm to cut.

What a weenie EPS run today