ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Reggie definitely very elongated low
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We already know a beast is coming....but there's a real difference that can occur in the magnitude if capture is delayed a bit.
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Well it doesn't last....even on this NAM run it gets yanked back down to south of MVY....I think the biggest issue is the timing of it. I'm trying to think of any high-end storms that had something similar....2015 started to become very brieflyt elongated before being captured, but nothing like what is being shown on guidance.
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It has a rotting outer band long after the storm is occluding
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NAM still captures it south of islands. Just took longer this run.
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If it waits until gulf of maine, then yeah, that would limit the amounts in SNE to merely exceptional instead of "Record threatening"
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You would as long as the capture wasn't too far NE...like say it was captured just east if ACK/CHH instead of south of BID....then that would help you.
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The low eventually gets captured anyway because H5 is just so strong, but the dual low can act to delay the capture a bit further northeast.
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This is a legit concern of mine in terms of this challenging records vs being "merely" a massive storm.
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Yeah what an awesome looks. My only mild concern still is that elongated structure. Even euro still hints at it but manages to keep things consolidated enough…but if it was a little less consolidated then you could envision a tamer solution. It’s not the biggest deal but it would probably lessen the coverage of 2+ foot amounts. You’d see a lot more 15-20 type amounts.
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06z GFS did also to a lesser extent.
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His standard for returning is pretty high though. It’s possible his area in RI gets more like 18” and he would have to drive like 7 hours from BUF after flying across country. That’s a huge commitment.
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Just catching up on euro and 06z runs. Wow to that euro run and wow to that NAM run. Still a little leery about the dumbelling elongated solutions. Looks like 06z reggie did that with a solid bump east.
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This is a pretty solid meltdown even by Ray’s standards
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Thanks that’s close but I was looking for the site that produces these images:
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Btw, does someone have the 500 height anomaly correlation scores that show all the major models? I seem to have lost my link for it and a search around the ghastly ncep site (very user-unfriendly) and google has proved useless.
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Lol true…but I kind of equate JMA to the super weenies who call for very storm to be a HECS….the JMA never saw a storm it didn’t like.
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Euro has been pretty gung ho most of the way…it’s had a few runs where it tried to slide a little east but it never went where so many other models went. It often was all alone too….so I think assuming we’re getting close to a final solution here, the Euro is going to take home a much needed W. NAM may have been the first model to show some of the most ridiculous solutions though. But we can’t ignore that 18z whiff yesterday.
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Reminds me of some of the Feb 2013 output. When it verified in real time, it was like 1-2” per hour over a huge area with embedded bands of 3-5” per hour. You were “getting screwed” at 1-2” per hour. It’s just a wall of precip.
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Yeah now that we’re all honking, this would be a classic time for the Euro drop a turd in the punchbowl with one of those strung out convective lows.
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Back when the servers were more iffy, threads that had over 50 or 100 pages started to strain them so we would close them and start new ones. I recall some events having 4 or 5 threads leading into it.
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Blue Hill actually has the highest for a first order station in SNE with 38.7 in the Feb 1969 storm. 34.5” at ORH in Jan 2015 is the 2nd highest for a first order station. I think their 33.0” in Apr 1997 is 3rd.
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It wouldn’t be a big dog if the GFS wasn’t rapidly caving inside 48h.
