ORH_wxman

When I first started looking more into NSIDC SIA as a predictor around 10 years ago, I almost chose 6/20 as the cutoff date because it's not that much less accurate than 6/30....so I think most of this season is likely baked into the pie at this point. There have a been a few years (like the previously mentioned 2008) which really went crazy the final 10 days of the month to end up closer to the bigger melt seasons, but a large majority of the seasons were pretty baked by the solstice. I think the best-guess theory (with the assistance of some literature on melt ponding) is that there simply isn't enough time in the melt season to make up for a lack of melt-ponding in the first 3 weeks of June. If you fall behind in the melt-ponding during that period, you pretty much cannot catch back up unless you really have some crazy anomalous weather. Most of the melting in the 2nd half of the summer is from bottom melt rather than surface melt (sfc temps cool back below freezing pretty quickly late summer), so you need as much surface melt momentum as possible early on to achieve a big melt season...and lots of melt-ponding helps enhance sfc melt by lowering albedo and increasing heat transfer, etc.

Update: NSIDC SIA stood at 8.39 million sq km as of 6/20/2022. Here's where other years stand now: 2021: -580k 2020: -720k 2019 -470k 2018 +90k 2017: -50k 2016: -420k 2015: -170k 2014: -80k 2013: +60k 2012: -740k 2011: -330k 2010: -450k 2009: +710k 2008: +70k 2007: -610k You can see there's some pretty clear divergence now between the huge melt years and the higher retention years. There's still some time for movement (2008 lost a lot in the final 10 days of June), but 2022 is quickly trending toward years like 2018/2017/2014/2013. There is a dipole pattern setting up over the next week or so....if 2022 is going to make a move toward the big dog melt years, it has to be during this next week.

Update.... NSIDC SIA stood at 8.65 million sq km as of 6/16 How other years compared to 2022 on this date: 2021: -320k 2020: -410k 2019: -520k 2018: +50k 2017: +120k 2016: -330k 2015: -70k 2014: +150k 2013: +110k 2012: -800k 2011: -330k 2010: -190k 2009: +670k 2008: +180k 2007: -170k

Update (NSIDC SIA stands at 8.72 milion sq km as of 6/15): 2021: -90k 2020: -220k 2019: -460k 2018: +140k 2017: +110k 2016: -280k 2015: -50k 2014: +80k 2013: +190k 2012: -730k 2011: -200k 2010: -210k 2009: +660k 2008: +210k 2007: -140k 2022 is starting to fall behind the pace of loss on the top melt years like 2012, 2016, 2020, 2011, 2007, etc. Gonna need it to pick up quite a bit over the next 2 weeks to have a shot at a new record or even top 3. I think there's probably too much ice in the Beaufort/Canadian Basin/CAA this year for a huge season.

Almost time to start tracking the sea ice area daily....I usually wait until after 6/15 to do that as we're still a bit early. For a refresher for those who don't follow this every year, the NSIDC sea ice area at the end of June is able to predict final minimum extent and area quite skillfully because the NSIDC algorithm is relying on SSMI/S satellite data which gets fooled by melt ponding into thinking there is open water....something that the other satellites aren't susceptible to. The reason that is important is melt ponding is an excellent predictor of sea ice extent/area minimum. If we had perfectly accurate measurements of melt ponding publicly available, we wouldn't have to use NSIDC area, but for now, NSIDC is a good proxy. Here's where other years stand in relation to 2022 NSIDC area as of today: 2021: -210k 2020: +160k 2019: -100k 2018: +110k 2017: +10k 2016: -500k 2015: +90k 2014: +220k You can see there is a mishmash of results there that doesn't tell us much yet. 2022 has more ice than last year at this time but less than 2020 which was a huge melt year. However, the real separation starts occurring once we get toward 6/20 and beyond. Years like 2020 went absolutely nuclear over the next couple weeks. I'll prob update these again in about a week and then do more frequent updates as we get into the final 10 days of the month.

I like the marginal snow sounding over the interior on the NAM for early Sunday morning. Prob at least some pingers in there with that super cold layer near 900.

Nice mother's day weekend disaster on the Euro....awful. Hopefully trends back south...or at least trends north to give us good rain. But that solution is the worst. dogshit temps and mist but not a ton of precip outside of SW CT.

Trends are def good. When you get defined east-based Nina, December comes in big fairly frequently (see 2017, 2007, 2005, 1995, 1970)...keeping it weak is better though for later in winter as noted by the '95 and '17 analogs....'05 didn't really follow that mold though you could say Feb '06 was a bit unlucky and we should've scored more than that one coastal.

Hopefully the Euro is more correct with the cutoff staying well south...so we'd at least be far enough north to get a decent amount of sun and avoid the horrific onshore flow. GFS on the other hand basically makes it a full-on mother's day weekend massacre.

Agreed. Wind was way down today which felt amazing.

Snowfall in last hour/Snow depth change since last 6 hour obs/ Snow depth

Look at the peak of the heavy snow....mid afternoon.....they prob wouldve gotten 20"+ if it was 6 hours later.

Just had a shower come through.....dropped temp back below 50 briefly. Best spring week of the year continues. We'll see if we can pull a freeze tonight to add to the summer preview.

Bump....this was actually pretty well-forecasted by model guidance.

Got up to 55F earlier this morning but it has since dropped to 51F and clouded over and wind has been picking up. Awesome weather for 4/27....best spring ever continues.

Early summer cancelled again on the Euro this run. In line to bend us over for mother's day weekend. Hopefully it goes back to the 00z look.

Some of the LR stuff looks interesting....maybe get our first taste of summer in here.

Yeah and that's not too surprising given that this month has been wet too...at least until very recently.

75F is semi-arbitrary, but it's hard to not achieve that temp when the month is above normal. IT's a decent number for April.....70F in March is a similar benchmark or 65F in February. Just speaks to how we did it in April 2022....most of the warmth this april was front-loaded where a 60-65F high on April 2nd produces a solid positive departure. We've pissed away a chunk of that AN surplus that we banked in the first half of the month...I noticed ORH is down to +1.9 on the month and BDL is down to +1.7....and those will be whittled down further in the final week here. So yeah, it's prob not going to be too far off from typical April dogshit, except we did it in surgical fashion as to avoid the 75+ weather we typically see in the low-elevation sites by month-end.

We're def running a bit late on first 75F+ this season despite the AN April....avg first date of 75F+ at various ASOS stations that have NOT hit 75F yet this season: BED: 4/14 BAF: 4/10 FIT: 4/8 OWD: 4/9 ORH: 4/26 (random stat.....ORH hasn't hit 75F prior to May since 2017) BOS: 4/19 PVD: 4/22

Yeah rad pits near the water are actually sometimes better for late freezes with that sandy soil...look at MVY. MVY average last freeze is 5/11 while ORH is 4/24. But if you lack radiational cooling near the water, you are going to be really early (like I think KBOS is something like 4/5 or 4/6)

Your avg last freeze there that close to the water and a bit up on a hill must be no later than mid-April, no?

Tell you all you need to know about our spring climo that today isn’t considered terrible. Old college stomping grounds in ITH rocking 80F today