ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Northern stream was better on GFS but southern stream was worse
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Reggie wasn't a big help....but we've seen NAM and ICON trend significantly better. Kind of annoyed that Reggie did not trend better aloft like the other two did, but we'll see what the varsity models say soon.
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What is Tblizz doing this morning?...time to confiscate the edibles from him.
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Slow is good too in this case....we want the whole trough to slow down and give us time to let that northern stream turn the flow more S to N on the eastern side of the trough...
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Yep, if we get this type of trend on the rest of the 12z suite, then we have a pulse still.
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It's like RAAAAAAAAAIINNNNN.........on your KU day It's the Greenland bloooooock, when it's already May, It's Tip's hadley celllll, with an big RNA..... And Ray smokes exhaust....it figures
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Yeah there will likely be a fronto band with this thing…SE areas favored for now. But unless we get back to sharpening up that southern stream again, the upside is something like 4-7” in a stripe. For the higher end scenarios to be back in play, we’ll want to see a big trend at 12z of sharpening up the southern vort and having it phase with northern stream. I’m not expecting that trend, but it’s what we would need.
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This one needs a big trend at 12z or it’s done.
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Nice move but still need another going forward. It would be nice if we could sharpen up that southern stream just a tad more. The northern stream is in pretty good position this run.
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GFS coming in better than 18z
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Northern stream was way west but the base of the front runner is pretty rounded. I do think that would eventually go boom though…too far west not to.
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Would like to see the trend continue on 00z obviously. It would be nice to see either the GFS or Euro have a hit.
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Yeah slight improvement on 18z euro.
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Just saw the 18z GFS. It was marginally further east with the northern stream that run. We need that sucker dropping down through the eastern Dakotas or western MN like the 18z NAM…not through the arrowhead and Green Bay. All else being equal of course. There’s some other nuances that can help out either way but the northern stream is my main focus when watching this runs.
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Reggie didn't dig the northern stream as far west as the 12z run....though to be fair, the 12z run was probably a total nuke solution...the 18z run is still plenty far west.
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18z NAM is slower and west of 12z with northern stream...that's gonna be nuclear.
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EPS nibbling a little but not biting yet
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For those who aren't 100% sure what we are talking about....check out the shift in the northern stream up near Minnesota...well southwest of the 06z run.
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Yeah I'm not sure how many people realize how quickly this can go from fish food to a storm sitting over SE MA when playing with the fire on the northern stream like that. It's what we want for a high-end event, but there's a critical point where this comes way west if you phase that in early enough.
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If H5 improves again at the same magnitude that 12z did, you will definitely see the surface respond strongly....this run was getting close. If we were 60-72 hours out, I'd probably say this wasn't enough, but we have another couple cycles to get this into hit territory.
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I couldn't care less at this point...the 00z run upside was a moderate event....this is way better even if it doesn't satisfy the queens at Day 4-5. It was a pretty big move for the euro.
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That was significantly better than 00z aloft...you want that northern stream dropping in otherwise it's a moderate event as the ceiling.
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Euro already significantly west with the northern stream than the 06z run at 72 hours
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I'm not too worried abou the Ukie at this point...it was the outlier west at 00z and likely the outlier east at 12z....it loves to jump, but i did note that it still had the northern stream very far west at 12z, it just didn't seem to sync up with the southern energy. That northern stream piece if the key trend I'm looking at today...Ukie still had it well west which is good.
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Definitely a much better GFS run....still need that northern stream to drop in a little further west, but that was a pretty nice step at 12z.
