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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    NW CT and Berkshires are def gonna get hit really good. You can see it setting up really well for them. I wonder if near Danbury and Waterbury could be a sneaky good place. Esp areas above 500 feet. I wouldn’t be shocked to see solid advisory amounts there. Further southeast is a question mark.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Yeah we fight the dry air below 850. There could be a little burst close to 00z as the upper trough gets closer but otherwise I’m pretty meh on this for advisory snow or greater. I think there’s going to be a lot of 1-3” type amounts.
  3. ORH_wxman
    12z HRRR not impressed with SNE outside of Berkshires and NW CT.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Close call there. But I think hedging lower is the way to go on this one. Usually the west slopes of the Berkshires and NW CT are gonna clean up in a setup like this while out east the northwesterly flow starts drying out the atmosphere. So it becomes a race.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Prob would’ve been Dec 10, 2008
  6. ORH_wxman
    Yep. These are the events Kevin can get terrain enhancement on. He needs a westerly component or a southerly component where he is.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Kuchera (not posting 10 to 1 in this)
  8. ORH_wxman
    3km is actually snowier for SNE and more potent with the dynamics than 12z.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Yeah the dynamics look much better on that run....hopefully it plays out with stronger dynamics. Weak and strung out it not going to be as fun....even if it might get 1.5" of slush on the weak scenario versus 0.7" on the stronger scenario.
  10. ORH_wxman
    18z NAM going west a solid tick.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Yes, and then a week later there was a marginal 8-10" storm for north of the pike....basically a front ender at 32-33F isothermal sounding. That was poorly forecasted.
  12. ORH_wxman
    There will be some good precip rates, but duration is an issue. This thing will be screaming northeast.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Around here I only really want to see about -5C or so which the top of the saturated layer achieves (at least on the western half of the sleet band)....there's so much salt nuclei in SNE sticking out into the ocean that the baseline numbers get skewed warmer for ice crystals. That said, my guess is the HRRR is too cold anyway, so it's prob a moot point.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Pivotal is probably too wide with the sleet ptype looking at the soundings. Like it's showing sleet where the entire column is colder than -2C but because it's not saturated in the DGZ, it shows up as sleet.
  15. ORH_wxman
    There was 1-2" in the interior on 3/3
  16. ORH_wxman
    For us, yes....out west though it's been a much bigger differences on some of these runs.
  17. ORH_wxman
    All the 12z hi-res guidance seems pretty bullish on snow in SNE...esp central/west....GFS kind of meh, though it continues to trend east.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Yeah if you compare all the solutions from like 2 days ago, the Euro is taking most guidance to the woodshed in the means. Definitely a needed coup for that model.
  19. ORH_wxman
    They will be bad in the interior for sure...maybe even the coast if the snow rips for a couple hours. But these are always much tougher than a system like Wednesday. Prob a blend between the two....even Kuchera is prob a lot better in this setup.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Prob about 10 to 1? It was pretty fluffy in terms of snow growth but also a little pasty because the sfc was near freezing so they kind of offset eachother to be near 10 to 1.
  21. ORH_wxman
    They are going to be more accurate in this setup than the 10 to 1 clown maps you are posting
  22. ORH_wxman
    That’s almost warning snowfall for ORH and advisory even into eastern areas.
  23. ORH_wxman
    LOL 18z euro
  24. ORH_wxman
    3km NAM still trying to redevelop the low southward along the front later in the event to give a quick burst of moderate to heavy snow and crashing temps in SNE.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Greens to whites to SR/Sugarloaf crush job.
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