ORH_wxman

Lol....yeah, making ironclad proclamations is great for sales, but not so great in forecasting. Same goes for those who are convinced we're screwed too. Seeing an awful lot of certainty in some posts while simultaneously complaining about the unreliability of model guidance.

I wouldn’t be that worried over the interior outside of typical normal storm track worries. There will be enough cold around on favorable storm tracks. Immediate coast will have more issues.

I really like the EPS for New England. Maybe not as great south of here. I don’t really have a reason to poo-poo the below patterns…lack of arctic cold might be a worry in very coastal exposed spots like the Cape and south coast.

Outside of the GFS, not much supporting precip for 12/9-10. Id expect GFS to come considerably more suppressed today with that one. Still a chance there’s a compromise on models where we thread the needle and get a bit of snow but I’m expecting a whiff at this point. Sig for 12/13-14 is pretty solid on ensemble guidance so we’ll just have to wait and see how that one evolves.

That’s even more suppressed. South of DC.

GFS is def an outlier with the Dec 9-10-11 system. Even compared to NAM. You can see how much more suppressed the flow is even on that model near the end.

The 1.7 on 12/8 looks good. No idea where the 8.5 on 12/7 came from.

Doubt it.

Middle finger into YBY In all seriousness. There are going to be multiple shots at something as has been mentioned previously.

Get a little more cold press ahead of that system and it could be a pretty big deal in interior SNE. It does eventually change over there but if it can do it 12 hours earlier…watch out. Still might end up getting squashed though.

Next system was run out of your basement.

One of those is Jan 1969. That was tough luck. edit: I was 30 seconds too late. Lol

I think more than that have committed. Aren’t you already in? I know Ray, Scooter and I are in too. I am pretty sure a few others committed too.

Looks like Feb ‘69. So like 39 and change?

I actually noticed this too thougj I looked more at individual members. Even GEFS we’re pretty snowy. Just not as snowy as EPS. EPS had a LOT of snowy members…and we’re more snowy for 12/12-13. GEFS really ramped it up after that threat.

I’d say GEFS overall have been better at diagnosing the pacific. But that’s for the Dec 6-10 period. It remains to be seen if they continue to do better beyond that. I think you could make a case for either way. The EPS caught onto the magnitude of the Atlantic blocking before the GEFS did.

Still a sizable difference in EPS vs GEFS. EPS looks a lot better both for 12/12 threat and then beyond that. GEFS eventually looks good but it’s taking a solid 3-4 days longer than EPS and even when it does get more favorable, it’s still not quite a good looking at EPS. GEPS (if we actually care about that suite) does look more like EPS than GEFS. So that’s a minor piece of support. The difference between EPS and GEFS def seems to be tropical forcing. GEFS brings it around MJO phases 4/5/6 before curling back into COD and maybe re-emerging near phase 7/8 (when the looks gets favorable again) while EPS basically keeps it in COD.

Western trough is giving everyone PTSD….definitely from last December. Patterns aren’t the same though. If the western trough decides to dig to Baja through Xmas, then maybe but I don’t see that and guidance isn’t showing it either. Lots of emotional hedging going on I think. The pattern should produce plenty of threats imho.

That is way different than saying they have no skill. I would drain all of your money quite quickly if you kept giving me even money odds on something that has a 0.4 correlation. Like if you said “I’ll take the coin flip solution and you take the EPS at day 14-15”….you’d get annihilated pretty fast. Nobody should ever take long range ensembles as very high confidence. But they are useful and have skill.

Yeah like the NAO has a temp correlation of 0.4 here during peak winter months…it loosely means colder but it has a ton of wiggle room so I don’t place a lot of value on it. It gets to like 0.6 once you are down in Dc and VA and those types of areas so it’s a bigger deal. But the main point is that you cannot be “worse than a coin flip” without being an inverse (negative) correlation. Coin flip would be exactly 0.0 correlation since they are completely independent random trials.

There’s enough cold air up here but it doesn’t get precip into New England.

Reminds me a little of Dec 5, 2020…hammered ORH hills and monads with warning level paste but was a sloppy 1-4” for the rest of the region.

That is not statistically worse than a coin flip. A coin flip means something is not correlated at all. We’re talking independent trials. It would be a 0 on that graph. A correlation of 0.4 is not ironclad but it is statistically significant. If you started getting “opposite” results of what you expect, then your correlation is negative.

There is definitely an emerging consensus in longer range guidance that things could go from decent/good to very good as we get closer to the final week before holidays.

They made the dance…but the run is coming to an end.