ORH_wxman

If by “moderate ice storm”, you mean a tenth or two of radial in-situ icing, then yeah, maybe.

Opera Man ending?

Correct there is no guarantee. But typically if you get a 50mb clean split, the chances are very good for enhanced blocking.

Yep, that’s why when I posted that 50mb strat look, i mentioned f things line up well, we can parlay the organic mid-February look into a stratospheric-induced favorable look into early March…kind of like double-dipping. We can use the stratosphere to prolong the fun (hopefully)…or prolong the torturous teasing, lol.

We might get lucky and parlay that into a nice late Feb/March pattern too. @CoastalWx, we’re moving it up to D9 now…hopefully we can get this inside of D7

PV gets pushed further south by the situation in the arctic. Seems like AO tries to go more negative. Almost north pole ridging poking up from the EPO and some retrograding Scandi-ridging.

Two distinct strong signals on EPS…the Thursday threat which is the warmest one…but it’s been trying to trend colder. Then next weekend (mostly centered on Sunday) which is a colder look for much of the region. There are additional weaker signals beyond that as the gradient pattern continues to provide chances, but those signals are weaker and more diffuse as you get out into clown range.

Yeah so it was the max temps for sure then if they are even on mins. ORH radiates like total shit as we all know so if rad pits we’re doing poorly, then ORH would have lower min departures but they don’t. Prob a lot of that westerly flow we talked about in the January thread is the biggest culprit. It affects all of us but BDL really gets affected more than anyone on that flow with their max temps. I wish we weren’t dealing with these shitty ASOS biases…I can tolerate a few tenths but being off by 2 degrees makes a mockery of this stuff.

If that’s the case then a lot of westerly downslope flow this month may make BDL still a bit warmer even when you adjust for their ASOS bias. They ran 1.4F ahead of ORH and their biases are fairly similar though BDL might be a few tenths worse, but that still leaves roughly a degree difference. Anyways, pretty flaccid cold departures in January relative to the very cold mid-level departures.

Looks like the snow line is near rt 2 or just south…low levels are still warm so this is the snow line a couple thousand feet up…but prob plenty of mixing and catpaws just north of it

So is ORH. Both are running warm. Lack of radiating this month though was going to make BDL a little higher anyway.

Much colder look on 18z GFS for next week. Some legit icing in that overrunner.

Def some bright banding moving into western SNE

I’m sure he’s on the edge of his seat for some wet flakes at the end. We really need to bring the weenie tag back….

@CoastalWx, 12z euro actually destroys the 50mb vortex faster…obliterated by d11-12. Something to watch…

Yeah this is the type of pattern that is about as bad as it gets for model guidance in the medium/long range. Very high gradient with fast flow and an emphasis on what is going on in the fast flow coming out of the arctic regions which even in the age of satellite data is poor coverage up there. I’d expect lots of big shifts. Something that may look good at 6-7 days out could easily be congrats Montreal at verification…and vice versa.

SUNY MM5 was a go-to in CAD events circa mid-late 2000s

High variance though. Could easily miss out on those threats too. But yeah, the OP solutions could vary by 200 miles at D7 and beyond and even a 100 mile shift could be the difference between big snows and 65F flamingos.

Need a much better high to show up on guidance....trying to on GGEM and to a lesser extent GFS...but still needs a lot of work.

There's pretty decent support for the 50mb split on guidance right now. We'll see how it looks in another few days...but pretty silly to just dismiss the idea.

They might get more snow in Uganda than we've had this winter.

Nice early April day out there.

Phase with TPV in west-central Canada was a bit weaker/delayed this run (but not denied)....if we can weaken that further, then we'll keep better high pressure to our north...or at least have it take longer to slide east. Canadian shows this too....except even better.

Are you thinking of 1992? There was a snow event on those dates in '92....very cold March that year after a pathetic rest of winter. That one wasn't a big storm though...maybe like 3-6" type event. It did hit the I-95 corridor though too....kind of a clipper/redeveloper.

Yeah if we want to try for a big dog in March, this will increase our chances for sure. Usually lag time is only about 3 weeks if you're getting a big stratospheric event near 2/10