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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
  2. ORH_wxman
    Dumpage here right now. The very best is to my south though going through Franklin/Bellingham
  3. ORH_wxman
    Woulda been a real Bomb if we had a bit more PNA ridging.
  4. ORH_wxman
    It’s a very deep SGZ so that helps even in light snow. Still think 3-4” is a heavy lift but if you have very good snow growth, then you can fluff your way to 3” on like 0.13” of liquid. I just hate using ratios to try and get there…because I’ve seen good soundings before but if the lift ends up too weak or not organized, you don’t realize the potential.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Hopefully we actually get the EPO poleward like that. If so, it’s a decently cold look but also not suppressed…to support your analysis of it being a more storm-friendly pattern here. It is a bit riskier with the SE ridge lurking, but we have been through enough of these patterns to know that sometimes you need to play with fire to get the goods.
  6. ORH_wxman
    OP Euro today is kind of weak sauce on warmup as well. Not as much as Skynet....it does get pretty mild for a couple days, but no torching cutters....the 1/10 system bombs into the lakes but is more like a SWFE with snow/ice in CNE/NNE....SNE might be mixed to 35F rain in that scenario. But it just shows there's a lot of uncertainty even in a mild-ish longwave pattern. Early January is a good time to try and get away with a warmer longwave pattern.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Skynet is pretty weak sauce on the warmup out beyond the 7th. I don't think CNE-northward ever sees any liquid precip.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Gonna need big ratios I think though to be seeing 3-4" numbers...it's a pretty dry system. Even the upslope spots on the mesos are having trouble squeezing out 2 tenths of liquid.
  9. ORH_wxman
    That seems like a pretty bullish advisory given guidance...
  10. ORH_wxman
    Why are you engaging with QG? He hasn't been an honest actor since his handle was noreaster27 in the early days 12+ years ago.
  11. ORH_wxman
    I suspect that poster is referring to the 2-4 day mild spell when the EPO spike initially occurs. But yeah, it doesn't seem like a permanent shift to mild....the cold is right behind it.
  12. ORH_wxman
    It’s really too bad we couldn’t amplify the western ridge for Monday to send that northern stream vort further west and south because it would partially phase with that southern stream entity near Carolinas and probably produce a huge coastal. Im sure we will amplify the western ridge though just enough to cut a storm to our west when we don’t want it later this winter.
  13. ORH_wxman
    I’ve had one double digit storm (and it was barely double digits) since Feb 2022. This truly feels like that 1988-1992 stretch except warmer (at least prior to last winter) and not quite as paltry on seasonal snow totals here…but close enough. Really could use a big storm to break the drought.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Monday doesn’t look that interesting unless northern stream digs a little more for a stronger IVT. Otherwise prob flurries or C-1”.
  15. ORH_wxman
    That’s a pretty big hit for midcoast and downeast. Let’s grab 1-2” down here. Want to keep seeing that vort come in really strong. That always helps to compensate a little bit for a dry system coming in from a downslope direction. It increases the lift and tries to tug some moisture from the Atlantic.
  16. ORH_wxman
    12/30/00 was a really annoying storm in central and east-central MA. Took forever to start (you can see how all the precip filled in west first despite it moving almost due north), and then once it got going it didn’t last all that long. It was heavy but then dryslotted pretty quick.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Euro keeps trying to show an IVT associated with the offshore storm on 1/4 as a northern stream shortwave moves over our region to cause it…wouldn’t be much but another inch or two could happen around that time.
  18. ORH_wxman
    PVA is pretty damned strong in this. That’s a vigorous vortmax. Could be a quick moderate/heavy burst in there with that.
  19. ORH_wxman
    ORH has been slightly BN for snowfall in December but not by a lot. November was a goose egg though so seasonal is behind by a 2-3” more.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Need a panic thread. Not sure I can tale the toddler whining much longer.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Seems like most should get measurable but 2”+ will probably be in isolated pockets or out on/near Cape.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Nothing big. It did show a light snow event on 1/4. 1/6 is still there too actually but again, not a biggie.
  23. ORH_wxman
    I always tell people that overselling CC is just as anti-science as denying its existence. People should recognize both of those. But I’m with @dendrite….this isn’t the time to be clogging up the main thread with this debate.
  24. ORH_wxman
    The irony of getting into a global warming debate when we’ve been like -5 so far this winter. You’d think it would be in a +5 winter.
  25. ORH_wxman
    2009-2011 was the lowest 2-year NAO on record
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