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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    About an inch now. Absolutely nuking. Vis rose from like 1/8 to a half mile or even 3/4 but easily back to 1/4 and dropping quick. Phenomenal snow growth.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Vis maybe 1/8 mile now
  3. ORH_wxman
    Ok actually white fog here now. Wow. If it can do this for an hour that would go a long ways. But the echoes need to co heal together a bit more.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Snowing good here again. But yeah, not an over achiever. We’ll prob be lucky to get 2”.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Looks like we may get a decent shot for a couple hours later this evening.
  6. ORH_wxman
    N MA border and S NH look like they are in a prime spot.
  7. ORH_wxman
    They key will be how efficiently that NY state stuff develops ESE.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Prob a couple tenths quickly in this. Excellent snow growth. Briefly got mod/hwavy. Starting to lighten a bit now.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Actually ripping here pretty good right now. Very good snow growth. Everything coated. This little band won’t last long though.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Rap increased QPF a lot on 21z run compared to previous several runs. Mostly due to the convective stuff performing better.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Longitude obv plays a role too. New England is unique in that it sticks out into the Atlantic. So eastern areas have easier access to a large moisture source to their south and east. But latitude def matters too. But I’d agree in the monsters that longitude might be more important.
  12. ORH_wxman
    A lot of it latitude too. Most of E MA is well north of you and Wolfie’s area. Kevin in Tolland is basically the same latitude as Tblizz-Brett. Some of the SW CT posters are even south of the cape’s latitude.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Gonna be a nowcast for that convective stuff. It’s been jumping a bit on short term guidance in both position and magnitude. This could end up being one of those systems that looks great on radar but not that good in ground truth. Well find out soon enough.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Interesting phenomenon….how many western peeps would turn down 10” of snow on top of their current pack so they wouldn’t have to watch eastern folks get 30”?
  15. ORH_wxman
  16. ORH_wxman
  17. ORH_wxman
    Amazingly, the EPS still has quite a few members that are hitting us for the 16th. I am not buying it but it is not completely out of left field if that system tries to make a comeback…it’s still far enough out that it could.
  18. ORH_wxman
    WinterWolf right now
  19. ORH_wxman
    Hrrr did juice back up a little at 17z for the convective stuff.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Euro has been significantly blockier in the longer range than the GFS…which is producing wildly different sensible wx for us on those runs. GFS tries to torch us to 60F while euro has multiple winter wx threats.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Let’s lock in next Thursday/Friday on euro.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Wonder if this kind of acts like a WINDEX event down here except without the wind since we don’t have low level instability…it’s more elevated above the inversion. You get NW to SE motion on the line of steadier snow and maybe it rips for an hour or two and that’s mostly all you get.
  23. ORH_wxman
    It did show north shore QPF enhancement but it was just very light across the board elsewhere on a lot of runs until it was imminent. A lot of runs showed less than a couple tenths here.
  24. ORH_wxman
    I think both hrrr and rap have been mostly horrific this winter but they do have some utility typically in shorter term forecasts. Hrrr was dreadfully too dry in the IVT a few days ago. Rap being paltry though worries me a little more because usually rap goes a little wild on QPF.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Hrrr soundings keep it very dry below 900mb even during the convective stuff so the QPF output is really paltry even though the sim radar shows like 25-30dbz snow bands. Haven’t seen that in most other guidance.
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