ORH_wxman

I love how it’s a clown range solution that’s a whisker away from a SWFE as proof it’s cutter season.

Gulf coast has been getting some ridiculous cold the last couple winters. Also 2 big snow events in the far southeast. Last year it was the FL panhandle getting a blizzard with like a foot of snow and then this year we had this weekend’s storm in SC and NC coastlines.

ORH finally hit 20F today. They got 8 in a row without hitting it which puts that steak alone in 3rd place behind 1961 and 1979 which tied with 10 each.

SSWE would affect us in the first half of March if it ends up being an impactful event. The vortex split is ongoing but the max warming actually occurs closer to mid-February. Usually a mid-Feb SSWE is felt by us in 2-3 weeks so that would place us in very early March. That’s actually what happened in the 2018 Niña. Occurred during mid February and really was felt in March. It also happened in the 2001 Niña. Both produced extreme blocking patterns that really enhanced storm potential those months. Both of those years also had relaxations in second half of February. 2018 had a full torch with temps near 70F.

Not necessarily. We will prob build up some pretty strong Feb negative departures the first week-plus…so even if we torch for 5-7 days, that may just get us back near normal or maybe not even if the torch isn’t super strong. Ideally it’s just a relaxation closer to climo. If it was 2015, we’d get 2 feet of overrunning while the rest of the country torches during the relaxation.

It could. But it doesn’t always. Sometimes the NAO will link up with a SE ridge which will torch us. We’ll have to wait and see as we get closer.

BOS was -1.9F on their January departure. But it was def an outlier compared to other parts of SNE. ORH -2.9 PVD -2.8 BDL -3.1

There are legit risks for a true mild spell mid-month. I wouldn’t be going all Torch Tiger yet about it due to the -NAO blocking throwing a wrench in there, but we shouldn’t pretend it’s just going to disappear automatically. Bering vortex is a very warm signal usually.

Wow you mean weather enthusiasts discuss the chance of a big storm on a weather forum? Who knew? We should all stay silent until it’s a lock…that sounds very intellectually stimulating!

It might not be that cold mid-month. But if it’s near climo, that’s usually good enough in mid-February. Ideally we’d get the reload for late Feb and into first half of Mar when climo starts going the wrong direction at a faster pace. Remains to be seen on that part.

South shore OES might be the winners in this one. Even more than ACK.

We get a transient AK/Bering vortex but we also have a -NAO. Normally we’d prob torch for several days, but we’ll see if NAO block mutes that. We do get another -WPO reload…pattern looks pretty active though after next weekend so I think we’ll have chances. Hopefully we can score a good event during the relaxation period and not have it cut.

I agree with you…just was pointing out that those maps (esp near us due to regional climate variability) will make it look a lot warmer than our more conventional departures would suggest given the ‘51-80 base period….january was def more -AO so prob larger mid-latitude bands of colder airmass.

That’s using 1951-1980 normals though…which is also the coldest 30 year period in winter for a chunk of NE in the last 100 years (gotta go back to earlier 20th century to beat it)….much easier to get BN on ‘91-20 normals.

I’m more impressed with 31F at PBI. Not easy to get below freezing at West Palm Beach

I still think next week could produce…but that’s getting into clown range.

The clipper looks more paltry now. Could come back more as a redeveloper but last night’s guidance didn’t like it. You’ll want to see improvements over the next day or so if we want anything more than coatings to an inch.

If it’s top-down (they usually are but not always), a February disruption usually takes about 3-4 weeks to affect the troposphere. If it’s bottom-up, then the troposphere is actually affected first.

Yeah there is actually a strat vortex split that occurs in early February in pretty much all guidance.

EPS likes 2/7 and then again a week later in the 2/13-14 timeframe. We’ll see if we can get a stronger signal as we get closer.

On days with bright sun and relatively fresh snow pack, a lot of PWSs will prob run a couple degrees higher than ASOS. Within 1 mile of here, there are PWSs that read 19-20F. But some read 25-26F…the latter are absolutely contaminated by solar glare.

Official NWS obs can come from ASOS too. All the ASOS sites are “Official nws obs” since they are maintained jointly by NWS and FAA. It’s just ASOS-only sites won’t give snow depth.

Most airports don’t do snow depth anymore. Consequence of getting rid of full time weather observers and going to ASOS in the 1990s. Airports that still have an observer on site will have snow depth. Guess BDL has one again. For a long time they didn’t.

Yeah….We can’t match the obscenity of the mid-50s through late 70s….but this is pretty solid for post-1980…think this is the 9th coldest start to winter for ORH since then and it should continue to climb the rankings if the models have any idea over the next couple weeks.

We haven’t really had those -25 or -30 departure type days thst really throw an exclamation point on a cold outbreak. It’s been a slow burn of -10 to -20 departure days during these cold streaks. Same exact thing can be said about that warm streak mid month…it was just a bunch of +10 to +15 days strung together so it never “felt” like we had a high end torch. We weren’t getting that signature +25 to +30 day or two at the height of it like we usually do.