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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Massive parachutes here. Surprised it started off at snow.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Ray, Feb 1956 and Feb 1972 were good and both La Nina...'56 was a strong Nina. I'm stil trying to find a similar pattern as to the one being forecasted by ensembles....I agree Feb 2014 is prob the closest but that had the lower heights biased further west....more of a -PNA than is currently being progged. Late Jan/early Feb 2013 is another somewhat similar pattern too.
  3. ORH_wxman
    The irony is we trended much cooler in our little corner of the country in New England due to the CAD that’s dominating much of this week and during the weekend cutter. But it’s all mostly irrelevant anyway in terms of snowfall. We’re not expecting much in SNE between now and 1/15 anyway.
  4. ORH_wxman
    I really like the look after about 1/13-1/14. Details TBD but the longwave pattern finally seems more palatable for larger events. Hopefully it stays that way and doesn’t regress.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Yeah this is one of those events where you get not a lot of QPF but the impact could be higher end for those not aware of what’s happening. Lots of black ice on driveways if not outright thin glaze, that kind of stuff. Esp if you get the sfc cold hanging tough in areas that often creep above freezing (like metrowest 128 belt is a prime suspect for this)
  6. ORH_wxman
    The fact Logan airport is currently 26F with a light northerly drain is more than enough evidence that this lower level airmass isn’t going anywhere quickly.
  7. ORH_wxman
    You are really close to the snow line too early on so I don’t think it will just be ZR. Prob some sleet and perhaps mangled flakes mixed in. Basically a potpourri of crap. It’s not a lot of QPF but obviously even a little ZR makes things ugly. And yeah, roads will be fine as long as they are treated. Sidewalks might be another story.
  8. ORH_wxman
    It won’t be.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Pretty good snow growth in this band. This will do it for this C-1” event.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Well there is nothing until next week…the pseudo-cutter CAD storm this weekend which is prob just cold rain down here…then the pattern looks a lot better starting around 1/14-15ish. So any threats are gonna be D10 or longer.
  11. ORH_wxman
    The storm misses are close calls too which is a good sign. 18z GFS had a few just wide right.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Snowing steadily with a solid coating. Looks like round 1 about to finish. Should get another batch this evening.
  13. ORH_wxman
    NAM is tucky
  14. ORH_wxman
    Yeah if you put up -5 or -6 weeks in mid to late January, you're likely talking below zero temps several occurrences at night even down in SNE.
  15. ORH_wxman
    What’s your low there so far? SLK can put up -25F or colder several nights in a month during some good cold outbreaks. Plus those cold air advection days where it’s near 0F for a high.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Pretty nice setup. Ridge gets a little sliced off in BC but this is just round one…ridge then rebuilds a little further west and we’d have several more shots in the following 5-10 days with that longwave look. Hopefully we can cash in….but for D10 and beyond, this is all we can ask for at the moment.
  17. ORH_wxman
    No, prob ZR though in your area...maybe some IP too if the cold gets deep enough in the boundary layer.
  18. ORH_wxman
    @Typhoon Tip, 12z Euro showing a really good western ridge and some shortwave activity diving down the east side of it...pretty explosive setup during that 1/15 time range.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Warmest day of the week I think....prob mid 40s? We have southerly flow, but it's weak. Cant get the real warm stuff in the Delmarva up into here with that weak flow...then flow turns back N overnight Friday night.
  20. ORH_wxman
    12z Euro sags the sfc front south of SNE during the day on Saturday as well. No warm sector happening Saturday night/Sunday at least over the interior...might sneak some parakeets onto the Cape.
  21. ORH_wxman
    1/14 would be a bonus if we got something good that early.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Before that pattern sets up there is a brief window for a good coastal. Prob between about 1/14-1/18 or so.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Pattern looks to be pretty favorable by mid-month now. Hopefully something pops ala 12z Euro today. Ensembles still showing a nice pattern out in the extended. There’s your +TNH pattern…basically -EPO and a near neutral to negative PNA.
  24. ORH_wxman
    Yes but it’s just prior to the WSR 88-D Doppler radars being installed. So you don’t get the banding detail like you would even a couple years later. Just search for that storm in YouTube and you’ll see a ton of weather channel clips that show the radar loops.
  25. ORH_wxman
    I think last year and this year are more closely 1980s. On the colder side but less snow. The 2020-2023 period was just us cosplaying Virginia winters.
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