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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    EPS leaning slightly BN at the moment for New Years eve night.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Def could clip that area. That’s where most of the uncertainty is on this. We can quibble about 1.4” vs 3.5” over the interior but I don’t see any drastic changes.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Aside from outliers, this has basically been a 1-3/2-4 type event for much of interior SNE for a couple days now. There’s still some uncertainty on whether a little norlun/IVT can develop but my money would be downeast or mid-coast Maine for that. But it’s possible it could sneak down to north shore area too.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Def healthier than the previous couple runs.
  5. ORH_wxman
    I’m a little skeptical of BL warming that far into interior. 925 starts off pretty damned cold. Like -7ish. It does warm decently but that’s a lot of warming to happen in 6-8 hours to erode the sfc. Def vulnerable in the usual coastal plain spots where southerly flow hurts but up in your area and anywhere else deeper into interior I may hedge a little colder. Esp this time of year with really weak insolation.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Kind of surprising considering how warm it looked the last two days. Still not totally buying it, but this is clearly a very volatile look. I don’t trust anything out in LR right now given the weird exotic blocking we’ve been seeing showing from time to time.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Still no power. Almost 24 hours.
  8. ORH_wxman
    We take OP GFS
  9. ORH_wxman
    Fighting SE ridge but the big NAO and WPO blocking is an encouraging sign. If we have that heading toward New Years, I’d feel decent.
  10. ORH_wxman
    I think model data assimilation and initialization is still going to be a big limiting factor. So I’m not expecting anything crazy awesome in the next few years until that part of modeling is improved.
  11. ORH_wxman
    EPS is def at odds with OP run around 12/28.
  12. ORH_wxman
    The trend has definitely been warmer post-Xmas. I’d be surprised if we did anything wintry on 12/26….even 12/28 is looking tough. The one plus about today’s Euro run (out to 204 so far) is that it’s starting to go nuclear with both the Atlantic blocking and WPO blocking…so that wound set the stage for a pretty good look as we get closer to New Years. We’ll see how it looks as it keeps coming out.
  13. ORH_wxman
    This will be a constant theme I think….
  14. ORH_wxman
    It’s not a very exciting system so yeah, you can wait a day or two to really say anything about it. The only novelty about the system is it will give a white Xmas to those who can grab a couple inches. There’s a low probability maybe it morphs into an advisory event if we shove it south a little more and it can grab a little more inflow.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Eh I mean they are subtle differences but it might mean a lot in sensible wx outcome. I’d say the overall trend on that system has been better than 2 days ago….hopefully we push it just enough south to make it better. I could make a decent argument for either direction right now…on one hand, you have the sfc ridge still cresting over Maine at 12z on Tuesday which would argue the Euro is being way too quick to shove the sfc front northeast…OTOH, it’s not exactly a blocked flow there, so maybe it’s right.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Euro still not getting that sfc front staying south. Quick 1-2” shot on 12/23 and ending as mix/drizzle.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Yeah anything over a couple inches will last through Xmas morning. Xmas eve isn’t that warm. Maybe mid 30s and low dews with a solstice sun angle. But a coating to an inch would be in trouble.
  18. ORH_wxman
    The AI models basically have taken the place of the old extended GFS runs from a decade or two ago (and even a little further back when it was the MRF)….whenever you needed to see some good solutions, you’d just loop the extended GFS and watch all the cold and snow show up.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Yeah and it has juicier amounts too. Like 3-4” across the pike region. Ukie tries to keep the sfc front south which is what we’d want.
  20. ORH_wxman
    24th might stay pretty cold as northerly floW drills down behind low. Bigger question is how warm Cmas gets. Might be 38-40 or it could be like 44-48
  21. ORH_wxman
    12/26 is looking warmer and warmer the last 2-3 cycles too which kind of sucks. Except Euro Skynet which is frigid.
  22. ORH_wxman
    To be fair, you try to do that too with NNE fairly often. If we can trend the 23rd just a little more south/colder like skynet, then it would be pretty nice for most folks and probably slightly juicier amounts.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Crazy how much colder AI GfS is at 12z than the OP.
  24. ORH_wxman
    CT does fine too except maybe south coast has some issues.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Ggem Is a really nice shot of snow for interior. Prob 2-3”. SE areas are prob cooked after an initial burst perhaps. Hard to keep it frozen on S winds.
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