Yep, sometimes you know it’s fake or overdone when the model dynamics don’t look impressive. Likewise, well often talk about how the model QPF prob isn’t reflecting the dynamics far enough NW on other systems.
What makes this system so tough is we have a negatively tilted shortwave with vortmax running up and usually that’s a slam dunk for a biggish event, but in this case, we’re racing against the attenuation of it….and very small shifts can make a large impact on the sensible wx of it. If you attenuate it too quickly, it never starts to “capture” the sfc in the Atlantic and get those conveyors cranking…but a slightly stronger/consolidated vort will start to capture all the lower level circulation and very quickly crank out heavier QPF