Jump to content

ORH_wxman

Moderator Meteorologist
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    92,019

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Snow growth is still pretty crappy here but it’s like that 1/2 mile fog stuff. It’s dense but piling up. Some darker bands trying to get going…when we’ve occasionally had a little pulse of those, we’ve gotten better growth
  2. ORH_wxman
    SE MA is cleaning up right now
  3. ORH_wxman
    Snow growth def isn’t that good yet. It’s snowing easily moderate and sticking but it’s more like something slightly better than baking powder. But the best progs on soundings were more like 8pm through midnight or so over eastern areas. That’s when the lift got deeper into DGZ, so hopefully we start seeing that.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Between now and about 1am is poundtown for eastern areas. Might get some good high ratio fluff after that but the real meat is the next 6-7 hours.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Impressive bands starting to develop
  6. ORH_wxman
    WCB stuff currently south of LI was never gonna hit us anyway with any real force unless maybe clipping the cape. It’s all about the stuff to the west of that blossoming.
  7. ORH_wxman
    That’s good stuff too. Not super heavy but prob a much colder BL near the coast by that point with steep lapse rates and decent snow growth with lots of salt nuclei on those IVT lower level lift setups. Kind of thing where you can weasel another 1-2” out of 0.07 QPF or something.
  8. ORH_wxman
    You’ll need ratios to get that much.
  9. ORH_wxman
    AIs are liking the overrunning system while OPs suppressing it. Let’s see how consistent AI is in the coming few days vs the OPs. Wonder if we see another bias-correction win for the AIs….I had mentioned just a couple posts up how you often see those types of systems come north. I wonder if the AI models already know that from past data and are correcting for it. It will be interesting to track either way.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Don’t think the rates are there for a lot of warning amounts. But there will def be some good snow growth I think got a few hours this evening.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Always watch massive gulf-infused overrunning setups. They love to come north. So seeing them down south right now at this juncture isn’t the worst thing. There’s clearly a lot of spread anyway…EPS has QPF well into New England on these 24h panels.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Fwiw, I think it’s good to talk about it a lot because the more we all recognize and point out where the AIs were successful, then we can start to pick up patterns….maybe they are good in some types of setups and crappier in others relative to the OP guidance.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Yes but we just don’t use it in the shorter term since we have great short term models. If we can rely on AI as a solid tool for medium range, then that has a lot of value.
  14. ORH_wxman
    It’s gonna look mostly like crap for a while if guidance is correct. It will start to look better to our south and southwest around mid afternoon….youll see precip start to blossom and expand over NJ and south of LI.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Not very good in short term. It def kicked the operational’s butts though in that D3-5 period.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I think you guys will stack decently between 00z and 06z. Prob will be slow going until then. That’s true for most of us actually. Central’ and western CT folks a little earlier on the meat of the stuff.
  17. ORH_wxman
    This is what I was talking about earlier on a lot of these runs this evening. That heavier stuff is slamming the DGZ pretty hard…this is the latest hrrr but NAM has been showing it pretty consistently for several hours….so there could be some pretty efficient QPF to accumulation ratios if that pans out (and as a rule, you can lower that DGZ a little for us in SNE since we tend to have a lot of salt nuclei in the clouds here versus much of the country further away from the ocean)
  18. ORH_wxman
    14z run def looks healthier. Hopefully it’s catching a real trend.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Feb 2023 was bare ground. But we had snow pack for Jan 2019, late Dec 2017/early Jan 2018, and Feb 2016. Any other arctic outbreaks since 2016 that I didn’t list were prob pretty meh so they don’t stick out to me. But that Feb ‘23 outbreak was so impressive considering it was bare ground and yet it fell in prestigious company for all time lows at some of the major SNE sites.
  20. ORH_wxman
    That band in SE MA is crushing
  21. ORH_wxman
    Could be a SE MA special. The trend since last night has been to reduce the vort curl. That will limit how far west the good stuff makes it.
  22. ORH_wxman
    This snow was actually shown on a decent amount of guidance. But it’s not expected to be much. If you grab anything more than an inch or so, consider it pure gravy. Someone down in SE MA might get a lucky few inches from that band before the main show later.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Here’s the link https://www.weathertap.com/radar/local?site=KBOX&type=N0R&attr=ANI
  24. ORH_wxman
    Really nice band down in SE areas. PYM county over to upper cape.
  25. ORH_wxman
    The one thing that looks really good though is ratios might be excellent later in the system if NAM soundings have any clue. Esp later tonight/overnight/early AM. Even the IVT stuff with low level lift is in the DGZ and could produce some fluff. Something to watch.
×
×
  • Create New...