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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    A few tenths now. Best bands are just west so hoping to nuke for the next hour or two.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Pounding aggregates right now. Everything covered including pavement. It’s now or never down here over next 2-3 hours.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Actually getting some good flakes now here. 33F Not gonna last though. Gotta wait until after 00z here. Up by Ray could get some accumulation from this batch.
  4. ORH_wxman
    The medium range guidance for post-Christmas is some of the worst I’ve seen in a while. I mean, some of these runs were giving us pretty damned mild weather for several days in a row just a few cycles ago and it’s completely flipped. They weren’t able to handle the blocking in the Atlantic with much skill.
  5. ORH_wxman
    I mean this basically is the thread for this event. There isn’t much to talk about down here except maybe a quick burst this evening and a chance at a little IVT clipping the coast tomorrow.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Yeah northern outlier. If it’s gonna come back, we need the big boy models to start making a move at 00z
  7. ORH_wxman
    Last chance will be that stuff coming down from near ART and Lake Ontario. Some guidance kind of blows it up for a good 3 hour burst….I’m remaining skeptical but if it happens then we could pick up a quick inch or two.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Gonna be like a -4 or -5 December with little snow to show for it.
  9. ORH_wxman
    ‘92-93 went from a top 5 season to pretty mediocre quite quickly once you got into central CT and southwest. It was actually below normal for snowfall once you got to NYC. Pretty amazing season though for BOS-ORH corridor and northward into your hood.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Actually has a rare true flash freeze event during a rain to snowstorm on that solution. Doubt it verifies but every once in a while it happens.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Not optimistic. There’s an area of forcing knifing SE that is supposed to blossom Some snow for eastern areas later on this evening…that’s what could give a quick burst of actual half-decent rates. But it could also stay too far northeast. The dying WAA tries to rejuvenate some weaker echoes this afternoon but I am not counting on anything from that. For far eastern MA, they might try and sneak a piece of the IVT tomorrow….but that is low probability.
  12. ORH_wxman
    We had about 12” in the 2/4/95 storm and then I think the next biggest storm all winter was maybe 2” or 3”. It was close to being historically awful if it weren’t for that one Storm.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Euro is pretty nice for far SW CT for Saturday. Rest of SNE is light snow that is probably getting shredded…prob 1-2” type deal.
  14. ORH_wxman
    You need about 1.5-2” and you’ll be good. Any coatings will melt/sublimate.
  15. ORH_wxman
    He's been in probably the worst spot in the entire region since Feb 2022. So I get it....at least the rest of us had at least a few decent events, but his area down toward Tblizz has been really bad. ORH might have been the worst spot relative to climo from 1988-1992.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Dude, I went 4 years without a double digit event in ORH.....think about that for a second and take into account the climo and location.
  17. ORH_wxman
    It's pretty good for CT, esp SW half....not good for E MA.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Now you are really living the ‘80s ….last winter was a small preview since it wasn’t a torch. But so far this year we’ve got well below normal temps and you get to watch the mid-Atlantic snow and then we rain on the next system and then rinse/repeat. That’s almost exactly how it went. Wasn’t that bad of a decade roughly Philly-southward.
  19. ORH_wxman
    I actually cant believe how cold the post-Xmas period is going to verify versus what models showed several days to a week ago....somehow, we still can't snow very much.
  20. ORH_wxman
    The stuff in upstate NY diving SE is what most of us in SNE want to watch for later. The BGM to SW CT stuff is just going to keep fizzling...the forcing for later comes from the upstate NY batch....whether that's enough for a couple inches or not is the question
  21. ORH_wxman
    3k NAM being pretty healthy too gives some hope though that the 12k isn’t on crack. Both NAMs show the initial WAA dying out midday east of ORH, but it regenerates a very healthy precip shield as the forcing from the northwest (that gives NNE most of their snow outside the norlun) punches in. So if they are right, we’d see a lot of blossoming precip on radar this afternoon. Esp after about 2-3pm.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Not sold yet though. Hrrr still hideous. Rap still hideous.
  23. ORH_wxman
    12z NAM came in decently healthier for this afternoon.
  24. ORH_wxman
    Might be C-1” inside of 128. Even here could struggle for an inch but that depends on if we get some better enhancement in the evening for about 2-3 hours. Won’t surprise me though if we get skunked given the last few years.
  25. ORH_wxman
    NAM being so dry is starting to be a little bit of a red flag I don’t think I’d change anything though over interior. Still prob 1-3”. Maybe if GFS and Euro jump ship.
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