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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Lol it actually got better versus 06z. What a mega disaster this is gonna be for the skynets. Or it will be one of the great coups.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Our snowfall climo halfway point is something like 1/31-2/2 depending on which set of normals you use.
  3. ORH_wxman
    We’re gonna have lake ice about a foot thick 10 days from now.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Clean whiff even for Cape on Ukie
  5. ORH_wxman
    Btw, Ukie is indeed going to be east of 00z. Very obvious through 42h.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Yeah….prepping for 6 months of medieval torture is key to maintaining an even keeled mind.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Not out far enough yet but it might still be awful
  8. ORH_wxman
    Yeah it will nail the solutions that screw us. Surgical precision on dismantling a potential KU setup for us, but when we need it to be right on Sunday, it will fold easier than a cheap suit.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Sometimes it surpasses GFS at H5 but it rarely scores a snowier coup. Last time I actually remember them hammering a snowier solution vs other guidance and winning was the 2/2/15 storm. My guess is both GGEM and RGEM will cave soon. But who knows….stranger things have happened.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Canadian looks pretty awesome actually. Slower and a bit more dynamic than 00z for most of SNE. Too bad it’s the GGEM.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Even Reggie trended east a bit. Though it had better dynamics so the rates looked better for us eastern folk.
  12. ORH_wxman
    It could definitely still trend back west on the next couple cycles, but the problem is the closer you get to the event, the less likely the models are to be wrong and the moves typically get smaller. So if we’re trying to bring it west 100-150 miles in the final 36-48 hours, that’s a tough lift. If we only need maybe half that distance, it’s more realistic.
  13. ORH_wxman
    12z is pretty much bad trends across the board so far. Icon got a smidge better but that is almost meaningless because it’s the icon and it also was so far east at 06z, it couldn’t get any worse.
  14. ORH_wxman
    It was one of the western outliers so I’m not too concerned it ticked east a little at 06z. It would be more concerning if it did it again at 12z.
  15. ORH_wxman
    If ICON and RGEM go east, then the trend is prob real. But yeah, not putting a ton of stock into a NAM run…but still, if there was going to be a hard trend west, you’d think the NAM would be all over it.
  16. ORH_wxman
    At least this pattern looks better and it’s colder. A little more wiggle room than that February look last winter. Doesn’t guarantee anything of course.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Looks like horse shit. Hopefully it’s just being the NAM and one of its random clown solutions. But it’s never been bullish about this threat.
  18. ORH_wxman
    We need to “buy” ourselves about 3-5 hours for that vort to curl in before getting shoved E. Like you said, that 06z gfs at 66 hours was trying but then it just doesn’t have the time to really go to town before getting crunched east. The way we buy ourselves a little time is to really sharpen the trough so that lead vort energy gets shoved north into S Canada or near N NY border at 60h instead of slicing across VT/central NY acting like a brick wall.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Let’s keep that vortmax more consolidated and get double digits. Why not.
  20. ORH_wxman
    I did that storm on WWBB. That was my first winter posting. I had lurked previously…even back to ne.weather in the 2000-01 season.
  21. ORH_wxman
    06z OP euro moved a decent amount. It has advisory snows into SE MA now. Just need one more solid tick and a chunk of eastern zones would get in on high end advisory or low end warning stuff.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Def shifting more toward Berkshires NW CT and S VT/Sw NH. As that trough sharpens, it will cause Saturday to go NW but it alsO brings Sunday west.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Euro Skynet ticked west a bit
  24. ORH_wxman
    Nice shift on GFS. Still want Euro to jump W again.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Tight gradient that run.
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