ORH_wxman

21 year anniversary for one of the GOATs in SE MA and perhaps THE GOAT on the Cape. It was kind of meh west of ORH but what a ferocious storm for the east. The winds were very strong in this one and the airmass was exceptional. It was similar to the airmass this weekend.

Yeah those are the areas that would do better than others on Monday if we can keep solid easterly low level flow. South shore, Cape Ann, and eastern slopes of ORH hills. And then a bit of enhancement for anyone just west of CF…that’s kind of a wildcard for everyone’s forecast. Could produce a decent amounte of fluff on top of the rest of the storm.

The slow increase in QPF is a good sign right now too. In a lot of our higher end storms, they went from lower end “major” (like 8-14/10-15 type) on guidance into that 12-18/15-20 zone as we got inside 3 days. I agree with @Typhoon Tip that there’s sneaky potential on Monday with the lower level onshore flow being forced into the arctic dome…it’s one of those things that looks like mood snow or an additional 1-3” on guidance but then reality is 20 to 1 hooked aggregates that someone grabs an additional 7-8” on 0.37 of QPF….your snow growth zone is basically from the sfc to 700mb during that time so the lift being mostly low level doesn’t hurt as much as usual. Im still pretty ambiguous on how that will play out though. If we don’t keep the flow onshore, then it won’t be much but if we do, then things get more interesting.

That is a crazy good solution for most of SNE. Prob widespread 12-18” with a few higher lollis

Yes you could very well see additional snows on Monday. They aren’t necessarily confined the to eastern zones although it may be steadiest out east. But it should extend all the way back, especially if we maintain onshore flow.

Textbook Miller B

If we can keep onshore flow up to about 850-900 then I think we can tack on decent snows Monday/Monday night.

I think you’d want to see the trough open up more to get more of a norlun look. And the low would ideally be about our latitude but it might stay south and we stay with onshore flow.

That’s the storm the GGEM was trying to crank but ended up as just a scraper. GFS is robust this time around.

Yeah the NAM will be excellent for the midlevel warm nose once we’re inside a couple of days. It has to get the synoptics correct first which it usually takes until about 36-48h out.

Yeah i feel like any “issues” with ptype would be when the heavier stuff is gone…and that would also take a notable resumption of the northward trend which has mostly halted today. But if Mother Nature wants to try it, I’m here for it. It’s gonna be a steep cost in terms of dumping a ton of QPF as snow if we’re trying to get the mixing line up to the pike. My gut says that prob isn’t happening though with that airmass.

All that energy loading into the trough and nowhere to go except into a brick wall. That would prob go crazy Monday.

Nam is def pretty low with the heights to our northeast. I think the NAM would definitely go more coastal on Monday.

Dad laying the smack down.

Euro was very good for trying to squeeze out a few inches later Monday into Monday night. Keeps that low level circulation south of us.

One of the luxuries of having a crazy frigid antecedent airmass is small moves don’t really change anything all that much. We can handle some decent wiggle room with these temp profiles.

Ukie was juiced. Kept that onshore flow into Monday evening to add a few additional inches.

I’ve been thinking about dropping lurker status on Twitter (I have zero posts in my history) and just going Arnold in Commando on all the awful hypsters on there. I think 10-15 years ago I totally would but now it’s probably not worth taking up the time.

Super bomb. A lot of mets used super bomb as slang for a storm that dropped more than 2mb per hour for extended period of time.

I think you are thinking of 2/13/14….the 2/5/14 storm was much more of a SWFE with a latitude gradient south of SNE.

The DGZ is essentially from the sfc to 700mb on Monday so anything low level is gonna be quite efficient. The question is just how much lift can we generate in the low levels. Stronger onshore flow will certainly help as you push that marine boundary layer into the arctic dome…that alone will generate decent low level lift. But that’s why getting a decent secondary staying to our south as long as possible is key. Once it reaches our latitude, winds in the BL will be less and less onshore.

Lots of barking on 12z guidance so far about next weekend. Both GEM and GFS. GEM is trying for Thursday while GFS is Saturday.

I think you’ll need to tack on 6”+ after the initial overrunning thump to get 20” amounts. That’s possible but it requires some form of a CCB even if it’s mostly lower level…all that onshore flow from 850 and below. Guidance disagrees on the extent of that type of setup early Monday.

Prob a pretty decent call right now based on most guidance. You can almost broadbrush 10-16 across SNE. Maybe go slightly more conservative on the islands. There also might be a stripe of slightly higher amounts if there’s good OES enhancement and CF enhancement in a few spots, but I wouldn’t want to forecast explicitly over 16” for any one spot.

Heights have been showing up a bit lower in Quebec on the 12z runs so far. The stuff out west is still amped, so it’s actually a good combo for a lot of us because it runs into an even more stout brick wall than before which will increase QPF