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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    That was a very cold run. Very few torches. 12/28 gets messy with ice/rain but not warm at all. That Atlantic blocking just dominates for 10 days.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Euro a couple runs in a row trying to show a little enhancement in E MA tomorrow evening…maybe someone can crack 3” if that happened. Prob in the 128 belt to maybe 495..esp N of pike. Then there’s still the OES sig as the IVT rotates S and veers the winds back N for a time which puts the Cape into a decent spot.
  3. ORH_wxman
    There are still a significant number of ensemble members on both GEFS and EPS that hammer southern New England. Lot of spread. Honestly, anything is kind of gravy from that system as 2 days ago it looked like a rainstorm except way up in far NNE.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Yeah it doesn’t happen too often but this is admittedly a weird setup. We want to see ensembles tighten before really getting a good handle. The mean still has decent precip up into NNE so there’s a lot to spread.
  5. ORH_wxman
    It actually eroded the northern edge but the heavy stuff bumped a little north…which makes sense. It’s basically tightening the gradient. Prob a sharp cutoff in this system.
  6. ORH_wxman
    GFS continues to be mostly a whiff for 12/26-27 but it’s been creeping back north.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Yeah…high outlier comes back to earth. Still think 1-3” away from immediate shore is the good play.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Just when you think we're getting some model convergence, the 18z RGEM drops a turd on our head. Looks like those paltry NAM runs from earlier.
  9. ORH_wxman
    There's def an OES sig on the Cape for later on Christmas Eve. Euro has been showing it and 18z NAM has it too.
  10. ORH_wxman
    GFS is the higher end outlier....NAM is more like joining the rest of model consensus.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Def a better run than the last several paltry runs....it has been the low outlier, so good to see some convergence.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Well Euro was far less than GFS in central and western areas. It was only a little less in eastern areas this run. I hope the GFS is correct since it’s a widespread 3-5” deal but I’m still fairly skeptical. I think 1-3” would still be my forecast right now.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Euro looks like it juiced up a little for eastern areas tomorrow. It also tries to clip E MA coast with the IVT Christmas Eve.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Usually a good idea to toss outliers. GFS is just much juicier than most other guidance. If Euro juices up a decent amount then I'd probably be more intrigued.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Canadian is even more interesting
  16. ORH_wxman
    That's a big piled up train wreck in the Atlantic....that's what is causing all these systems to trend colder in the medium range.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Not buying GFS at all.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Euro isn't that far off from the NAM solutions either...Euro is slightly juicier but not by a lot. I'd still be going 1-3" for most of SNE. I'd need more proof this system has the juice before putting a 2" floor on the forecast.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Yeah and GFS has been pretty juicy as well.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Both 3k and 12k are pretty paltry for SNE tomorrow. Would be hard to go more than 1-2"....however, NAM has been on the more paltry side of guidance for several runs now, so TBD if it ends up trending juicier.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Yeah he’s been on tilt…we’ll get him back if he can muster a decent event this week whether it’s Tuesday or Friday. As for the lack of posts on Friday mentioned by others…it’s kind of hard to speak intelligently on that threat since it’s been moving hundreds of miles within a couple cycles. It would be nice to see some stabilization on guidance.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Your area might try and get a piece of the IVT. But IVTs are thought to forecast. Keep checking back tomorrow on that.
  23. ORH_wxman
    I’d keep it at 1-3” for most of SNE and adjust higher or lower if needed tomorrow. There’s a chance there could be a little sucker hole in the middle of SNE as the WAA dies out and the IVT gets going further northeast. We don’t know if that’s going to happen but if it does, there could be an area of 1” type totals. That’s why leave it at 1-3” for now.
  24. ORH_wxman
    EPS leaning slightly BN at the moment for New Years eve night.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Def could clip that area. That’s where most of the uncertainty is on this. We can quibble about 1.4” vs 3.5” over the interior but I don’t see any drastic changes.
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