ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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The system that improved the most today on both EPS and Euro Skynet was Friday night/early Saturday. Doesn’t get shredded as much but also pretty cold too. Monday still has the most upside imho, but Friday night could end up pretty good too if we trend it like today. Monday definitely got some more support too today. But being 8 days out makes it less meaningful when you see a model shift.
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Let’s split the difference.
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Given it was also my very early days of making maps, I put north foster coop too far north. It can extend a bit further south with the 12”+ on both maps.
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I did maps for April ‘87 and May ‘77 almost 20 years ago. They are of course, primitive MS paint jobs but they still give a decent idea. Only annoying thing is for some reason I did not use to nearest tenth in the April ‘87 map.
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Even almost a quarter give ORH 20”+. Definitely the most aggressive in a while. Lot of ways for it to screw up but the benefit of having like 3-4 different waves is you also have a decent chance of one or two of them working out.
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EPS is sneaky decent for Saturday too. Pretty snowy for SNE and CNE on that one.
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Saturday and Monday are in pretty good spots for 6 and 8 days out respectively.
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Compromise works great!
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OP run is warmer for Wednesday. More of a CNE deal.
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Yeah euro skynet is pretty cold for both smaller waves (Wed and Fri)…the Wed event is pretty suppressed on that model. Doesn’t get precip north of pike.
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The site also looks like it’s missing Nov 10-12, 1987 for the early season notable storms. Oct 10, 1979 is another good one.
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Yeah it’s basically a temporary spike producing a good Rockies ridge…not a classic full scale PNA ridge but eastern Rockies ridges have often produced excellent systems. That allows the shortwave to dig more and produce a coastal. We just don’t know quite yet where it makes the turn north. GFS was wide right.
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Euro skynet is a huge hit for Monday. Let’s hope it has a clue. It’s actually ok for the Friday system too. CT peeps get a bit on Wednesday.
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The AI guidance has seemed to like the Monday threat more than the others. Though I thought the 06z OP Euro looked pretty threatening at 144h.
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GGEM is focusing most of the stuff on the Saturday/Sunday shortwave…decent little event but again, those prob have limited upside potential of high end advisory or maybe low end warning.
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GFS trying for next Monday but this run will be wide right. That’s the one to watch. There’s advisory potential on the earlier events but upside is limited. The Monday system would have more upside.
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The funny part is the real pics in many cases are more impressive than AI for that stretch. A lot of the pics from 2015 in Boston look not credible.
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Torch tiger has been like metfan this winter except usually it’s metfan posting bombs at 300+ hours that never verify. This season it’s been Torch posting 300+ hour warm spells that never verify.
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Next Sunday/Monday is the system I’m watching. Anything before that is stein/shredded and obvioisly could be ptype issues too…but again, even the all snow areas on those doesn’t look prolific. Maybe advisory snowfall for whoever is lucky enough. Sunday/Monday could miss too but it has more room to amplify into a real system than the others.
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Yeah recent winters have really softened a decent number of posters in here. It’s not necessarily meant as an insult either…you can understand it somewhat….you invest time in tracking stuff but when you go through a tough stretch, it wears on you. Then you also benefit from lower heating bills and less cleanup and house maintenance. But some of us are true sickos and despite that, we’re not gonna root for spring in mid-February.
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Nice Euro skynet run at 18z…can we lock in next Sunday?
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NE CT (esp at elevation) is def different than the valley and SW CT. As much as we rib Kevin sometimes, his climate is way closer to ORH than HFD/BDL or anywhere southwest of there. But once the summer starts, he will use BDL again.
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Yes. But it’s prob not a very large area that would see icing. At least not how it looks now.
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Yeah it’s pretty solid considering basically zero falls D1-5 except an inch or two on the south coast. It’s mostly D5-15.
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EPS 5 day mean temp anomaly and total run snowfall. There will be chances.
