ORH_wxman

Pretty clear break on Atlantic blocking from yesterday/last night on longer range ensembles (esp EPS....GEFS weren't quite as different). That's really the crux of it in the D9-15 range right now. If we get good blocking in the Atlantic, we'll probably be on the cold side of the boundary enough to get some events. If not, then we're gonna torch for a week in the means. The one good constant though is we tend to keep reloading the -WPO anytime it starts to wane, so that alone will probably help us not endure weeks long torches. The cold is always not far away when you have that healthy -WPO.

Euro is still pretty nice for 12/23. Would be awesome to get that to trend a smidge further south to juice it up a little more.

Anything post-Xmas needs to be taken a massive grain of salt right now around this part of the country. The only certainty is the middle of the country will blowtorch.

12z Euro skynet is out too and looks pretty stormy and not overly torchy over the run. I don’t think it’s a very good pattern unless we retrograde it a couple hundred miles at minimum but it wouldn’t take a whole lot of breaks to get through it with a couple decent events.

Actually a decent illustration of how mild it will get if we don’t get good blocking.

Yeah and we had about 11-12” of dense snow in that one. It wasn’t fluff. It was cold/dry but like very dense. Made the pack beyond obscene.

1995-1996 had some semi-interior events too. 12/9, 1/12, and the dual April storms. Coastline struggled a little bit on all of those.

Yeah starting to get some model convergence on it. 06z Euro was a little juicier than the 12z GFS but both have it.

Based on the ridiculous amount of time I’ve spent in my life looking at snowstorm totals and maps, I think the sweet spot was in the 130-140 range in a narrow corridor from Blue Hill to just south of you a few miles inland. Hard to empirically support 150”…not impossible but unlikely.

Yeah a couple of their totals looked a little suspect but it doesn’t matter in the larger scheme. They got destroyed and were ground zero from there to the south shore.

That 77” in Se ORH county looks way off. Which coop was that? I doubt Milford since Milford isn’t that bad of a coop. If it’s Northbridge, beware…I used to toss them regularly.

Yeah that ridge needs to be further west by a decent amount for classic KU look…but that is an interesting look for New England. Kind of a late bloomer Miller B type look can come from that.

No, Hubbdave in 2015. Scooter had like 250% of climo that year, lol.

140% of climo…meh.

What’s weird is the SE ridge is kind of displaced westward right now on weeklies…a little different than a few days ago…and the heights even further SE like near Bahamas/off SE coast are actually BN. Kind of weird…almost El Niño-ish.

Big blocking would help out going into January imho. Most guidance keeps wanting -PNA and a SE ridge. If you overlay strong blocking, then it reduces the chances of cutters and torches. Lot of uncertainty though with the blocking. But it’s def been increasing on all guidance.

06z euro looks pretty nice for 12/23. A solid 1-3” deal for a lot of folks.

Euro skynet was decent for 12/23 too. Hopefully we can get that one to give us a couple inches.

Lot of hyperbole amidst kernels of truth.

It’s def a weird pattern. If we can retrograde that ridge/trough couplet about 200 miles west (not really that large in the scheme of things beyond 200 hours), we’d prob get a pretty damned wintry stretch even if no true biggies. On the flip side, we know how ugly it could get if everything shifts a little east.

I expect anything beyond D6 to jump a decent amount in terms of shortwaves. That’s often the case anyway but especially going to happen in this type of flow. Longer range is kind of a clown show right now. I wouldn’t want to forecast what early January is going to look like right now.

It’s an unstable longwave pattern so these types don’t last very long. The closest analogs are mostly El Niño years. Early Jan 1952, late Dec 1957 and Dec 1965. Hopefully those roll over the same way because those years had some great patterns a few weeks later. But I kind of agree with @brooklynwx99, it’s not going to verify exactly as depicted for 10-14 days on end. It’s prob going to trend toward something a bit more stable. Hopefully that means on the snowier side for us and not the furnace side.

While the longwave pattern is kind of ugly (and it’s an unstable look), the shear number of shortwaves flying through the flow will give us some chances. So while the probability of any one of these succeeding in being a 4”+ snow event is pretty low, if we have several chances, maybe one of them delivers. Most of us would be fine with a couple inches that gets us to Christmas but once the holiday has passed, I want some bigger systems.

Couple inches of snow….hopefully it keeps trending just a touch colder. Better than yesterday’s chinook on Xmas eve. Has another messy system on 12/26 too.

Boundary has definitely sunk south some on guidance since yesterday.