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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    All small ponds here totally frozen over. Charles river in Dover was frozen on the way to work today. I wonder if it’s starting to freeze near back bay. That would be extra impressive.
  2. ORH_wxman
    I think the one hope is the vort comes in a little stronger. Should get a better sample of it on the 00z runs. I don’t think it would be enough to help further north but it could be enough to get the pike region more firmly into a 2-4” type zone instead of C-1”. It would also help get the southern peeps in on a borderline warning event. Again, unlikely but we’ve seen some last second trends before and the stronger vort is probably the most likely way you’d get the small bump.
  3. ORH_wxman
  4. ORH_wxman
    Skynet prob not seeing John McClane’s caution flags and broadbrushing QPF too far north.
  5. ORH_wxman
    12z euro backed down a little from the 06z “zonked” run…no surprise. Still a decent event for far Se areas.
  6. ORH_wxman
    You can get huge cutters in a gradient pattern. It will be very hard to avoid one. It’s possible but unlikely. The gradient also sets up decently north…so it’s gonna get milder and milder relative to normal once you’re getting south of NNE.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Need a lot more than that outside of the Cape/South coast
  8. ORH_wxman
  9. ORH_wxman
    Not buying Reggie
  10. ORH_wxman
    Might be. Dry air will be eating away at the precip shield as it moves ENE. Could be a scenario where SW CT does a lot better than SE MA outside of the Cape.
  11. ORH_wxman
    C-2” deal except maybe south coast and Cape can still get something a little higher.
  12. ORH_wxman
    It’s def possible we are cold around Cmas. That H5 look really needs to be further east for us to furnace.
  13. ORH_wxman
    That’s how this system has gone. Every time we think we’re trending good, we see a step back the next run. Not expecting positive trends to start today, but if they do, then that’s obviously a really good sign…esp for S of pike peeps.
  14. ORH_wxman
    We need another 50-75 miles from scooter to me to you to feel decent. Gotta have the bump today…getting too close.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Lol 06z euro trying to suck us back in.
  16. ORH_wxman
    We really need a more potent vort at this point. Otherwise it feels like a south coast event where they scrape a couple inches and the dry air in tje low levels just sucks the snow out of the sky up north. A lot of Virga probably.
  17. ORH_wxman
    The positive tilt of the trough and having it consistently pressing southeast at the same time is giving me Bruce Willis storm vibes. Where the low levels just try to suck the moisture out of the air even if things look decent at H6-7
  18. ORH_wxman
    Yeah not very impressed by GFS. Getting a bit bleak this far north. South coast to the cape is def still in the game though.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Yeah we get an initial push but that really deeper lift is just getting shunted SE. We need a little more vort energy to put a kink in the flow to try and nudge this just a bit north. But even the initial fronto gets a general 1-3”. Guess that’s better than nothing.
  20. ORH_wxman
    NAM might be a better than 18z
  21. ORH_wxman
    It’s kind of a tease because if you amped this up just a little, you’d probably have quite an intense fronto band with good ratios…difference between a 1-2” scraper and a 5-8” fluff job.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Slightly improvements on rgem and GFS but we’re at the point where it can’t trend back. It has to keep ticking better for this to be a solid event outside of the south coast and far SE/Cape.
  23. ORH_wxman
    It has to be pretty low. In fact, it might be hard to find another 16 year stretch there.
  24. ORH_wxman
    Only at 42h and it’s the NAM, but it doesn’t look like 18z is going to help us.
  25. ORH_wxman
    The last 5 years have been pretty bad so there’s some recency bias…the historic pattern of up and down Decembers looks like Mt Mansfield in comparison.
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