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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    I think that’s placing too much precision on an analog. If all you knew is that we’d get a bomb near the cape with plenty of cold, Wed roll the dice every time and not worry about the nuances.
  2. ORH_wxman
    I do…if operational runs aren’t showing 288 hour blizzards, people get antsy regardless of whether the longwave setup looks nice….its a weird manifestation of the last 5 years. Nobody used to give a shit about whether we had 300 hour storms but now a significant portion of the forum gets anxiety over it. It’s probably because of the lack of KUs in that time period. Somehow, seeing them on the OP runs in clown range is some kind of crutch I guess.
  3. ORH_wxman
    If DC gets hit big is usually is less impressive here but there’s been plenty that hit us very hard that hit NYC too (Feb ‘78, April ‘82, Jan ‘11, Jan ‘18, etc off the top of my head)
  4. ORH_wxman
    Anytime I see 925-950ish going above 0C relatively quickly, I sell big ice accretion. You’d need something super inverted like 20F at the sfc to overcome the warm drops.
  5. ORH_wxman
    I hated that storm but always love your account of it. We almost got our pack wiped in that one. Only reason we didn’t was because there was so much sleet and water equivalent in it from like 5 previous high QPF events that had started with the Dec 29-30, 1993 storm. But it was mowed down to about 2” of glacier.
  6. ORH_wxman
    This tends to work better when the pack is deep and higher water content. It takes time to heat water…this type of pack prob gets pretty ripe quite quickly once dews reach 38-40F. You're area got a nicer dose of QPF so the valleys there could be tough to wipe out.
  7. ORH_wxman
    I dunno, I really think it depends how long temps are above 40F…in your area to my area, there’s a decent chance it wipes the pack. Prob gonna be 12+ hours of 40+ dews. Not a lot of water in the pack either (though my bottom layer from 12/23 is kind of dense). Western CT up into ORH county might keep it though as they spend less time above 40F. If we had like an inch of water in the pack then this wouldn’t wipe it out, but this is not that type of pack.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Gonna be a miller B while you’re gone just to give you one more round in Ray’s beast shed.
  9. ORH_wxman
    I also don’t think the accretion will be overly efficient in this type of setup. When the cold layer is so shallow like this, the liquid drops are not as supercooled so they won’t freeze as quickly on contact. In icing events where we have robust cold up into the 925-950 layer, that’s when the accretion is usually much more efficient. It prob will start pretty icy but then then it will get pretty marginal.
  10. ORH_wxman
    -2 at AFN while ORH is 20F. About as fake as it gets, lol. But there will def be some stubborn cold overnight tonight that will cause icy spots.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Looks too flat now for much if anything. Maybe it comes back but I’d forecast flurries right now. Pattern looks pretty awesome though beyond that. Here’s day 5-10 and then day 10-15 respectively on EPS
  12. ORH_wxman
    Lock in big miller B for that 1/5-1/6 signal.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Where you going?
  14. ORH_wxman
    That’s not a particularly cold pattern shown with the lower heights over AK but it’s not a torch for us either because of NAO blocking. It’s occurring during a favorable climatological period too where the averages are already pretty cold. Weeklies have been rebuilding the WPO/EPO ridge after that though which would bring more reinforcing cold air if it verified.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Pretty decent pattern as we go into early January. This is a 5 day mean from EPS….note how all the lower heights are now down south. Going to be more receptive to potential coastal storms
  16. ORH_wxman
    Actually not in Holliston right now, lol. But it looked pretty good there on radar for a while so I’m guessing 4-5”?
  17. ORH_wxman
    They managed to slowly claw their way to 4”+ with additional redevelopment late evening….wasnt pretty and the best was north, but that allowed the event to still be decent there.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Def starting to lose the really dynamic lift from earlier. Radar becoming more banded/less organized. Still snowing well with good ratios but not the heavy stuff from earlier
  19. ORH_wxman
    As currently shown it is NY day into that evening.
  20. ORH_wxman
    00z GFS trying to redevelop a little clipper to out south for New Years. Would be a nice little advisory type event. Well see if other guidance starts latching on. 18z euro was kind of close but not quite able to turn that vort around the base of trough.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Incoming for you…band in metrowest is strengthening
  22. ORH_wxman
    It’s also weenie kuchera ratios. Post liquid equivalent instead. It’s all snow everywhere in SNE so we don’t need clown maps.
  23. ORH_wxman
    ORH now at 1/4 heavy snow. These bands aren’t as crazy as the CT stuff but they are still pretty solid
  24. ORH_wxman
    BID reporting thunder
  25. ORH_wxman
    Incoming for @Ginx snewx
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