Jump to content

ORH_wxman

Moderator Meteorologist
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    91,706

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    On deep layer easterly flow events, you’ll get initial land convergence in SE MA with a slight elevation rise too in interior SE MA but then it goes back down into E RI before you get the bigger upslope into NW RI and far NE CT. I wonder if absent any midlevel enhancement, they just get stuck in subsidence between the land convergence/slight upslope in interior SE MA and the upslope further west.
  2. ORH_wxman
    OR we could go the Feb 2013 route also with a ridge hundreds of miles offshore the PAC...lol. Granted, this was slower flow
  3. ORH_wxman
    Just give me a damned storm like this....doesn't need to be a fooking Kocin cookbook pattern with perfect ridge placements....this damned ridge was like hundreds of miles offshore the PAC.....we can't buy these kind of systems lately and it has nothing to do with phasing or fast flow....this type of system was fast flow embedded shbortwave.
  4. ORH_wxman
    We had multiple BM track rainstorms in January 1958. A lot of people are very ignorant of weather history....but that is my forte, so it's easy to push back on. Multiple things can be true at once (which is also hard for many)....you can be warming, but also not have every event be some new shocking paradigm. Places like interior New England are likely never warming enough to become a DCA/BWI climate....perhaps that happens to NYC at some point....but even that could be a stretch.
  5. ORH_wxman
    SE ridge with frigid cold to the north always makes those more likely but you can easily get high-QPF snow events too in that.
  6. ORH_wxman
    It's been a pretty big switch this year with the WPO keeping on wanting to revert to a big negative phase. Last year, we were able to break the streak of it being largely positive, but it was still not strongly negative....it was enough with the -EPO to give us slightly BN temps. But this year, we had a raging -WPO much of December, and even when it flipped early here in January, it quickly wants to set up shop again next week.
  7. ORH_wxman
    A little bit of Wilton on that look late in the game (after maybe a few shots at a coastal in the D10-13 range)....some people might get a little scared of the orange colors at H5 getting close to NE, but that is a frigid northern tier look with that WPO/AO domain look.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Honestly, I think a way CC can help is you'll get these mega juiced systems when the longwave pattern lines up correctly....you'll have some season where it goes bonkers (ala 2015 in E MA)....all the extra moisture just getting freight-trained into New England with a cold dome overhead.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Most are focused on snow understandably, but the pattern is pretty good for a potential legit arctic cold blast....so if we're looking for sub-zero temps, this is the type of pattern you want. Ensembles are focusing near MLK weekend and maybe just after.....note the absolutely zonked WPO ridge and a bit of -AO retrograding from Scandi/Ural ridging....thats going to shove pure Siberian arctic into central and SE Canada.
  10. ORH_wxman
    So when it ultimately phases in and ruins our chance at a good event....we can blame the "new regime", even though the "new regime" is hostile to phasing. I can already see the posts now.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Some hits showing up on the 12z Euro today. The KU-or-bust folks will still be searching though.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Most guidance seems to have two shortwaves coming down near mid-month that we can sort of follow now....but that can obviously change at this lead time. The second one looks better to me....which would prob be in the 1/15-1/17 time range (timing varies by model guidance and cycle)....the first one looks like it's struggling with wave spacing and also antecedent airmass is poorer. So if we happen to grab anything out of the 1/13-1/14 period, it's pure gravy IMHO.
  13. ORH_wxman
    SE MA cleaned up unbelievably in that 15 year stretch....they were easily the most AN for snowfall anywhere in New England during that timeframe. They are a decent spot for big storms already, but those years just went crazy bonkers with the frequency of biggies.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Need to get past 1/15 for cold to return....we can sneak in marginal snow before that, but my best guess is the 1/15-1/20 period is one that needs to work out in order to turn the month into a potential AN snowfall month. Don't want to count on the final 10 days to drop double digits.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Oh there was plenty of talk of 50s conditional on warm sectoring. Not gonna happen now. Instead it’s mid 30s trash.
  16. ORH_wxman
    It’s going to be mostly CNE. Doubt much ice at all gets into SNE over the weekend. Maybe far N MA could see some marginal icing if things trended colder.
  17. ORH_wxman
    2022 was the last hurrah for Scooter…he cleaned up in the 1/7 event and then 3 weeks later near-jackpotted in the blizzard. Been nothing but the torture chamber since then for his area.
  18. ORH_wxman
    There’s an increasing threat this weekend over interior CNE.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Had a nice event on this date in 2022 as well. Had over 10” here.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Finally flipping to snow here. Everything is totally glazed...that most of this last batch was pure ZR with temps near 30F.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Problem for Friday is cloud cover and weak mixing.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Temp has actually dropped a full degree here since 6am. It was about 30.5F and now it’s 29.5F. There’s def a bit of a cold tuck going on with BOS and PVD winds out of NNW
  23. ORH_wxman
    Pure ice on everything. All surfaces glazed.
  24. ORH_wxman
    Nah I just deleted vaxxing shit. Hopefully nobody’s feelings got hurt.
  25. ORH_wxman
    That was kind of cool. Hadn’t seen aggregates that big in a while. Some of them were def half dollars. Now it’s pelting sleet.
×
×
  • Create New...