Euro a couple runs in a row trying to show a little enhancement in E MA tomorrow evening…maybe someone can crack 3” if that happened. Prob in the 128 belt to maybe 495..esp N of pike.
Then there’s still the OES sig as the IVT rotates S and veers the winds back N for a time which puts the Cape into a decent spot.
There are still a significant number of ensemble members on both GEFS and EPS that hammer southern New England. Lot of spread. Honestly, anything is kind of gravy from that system as 2 days ago it looked like a rainstorm except way up in far NNE.
Yeah it doesn’t happen too often but this is admittedly a weird setup. We want to see ensembles tighten before really getting a good handle. The mean still has decent precip up into NNE so there’s a lot to spread.
It actually eroded the northern edge but the heavy stuff bumped a little north…which makes sense. It’s basically tightening the gradient. Prob a sharp cutoff in this system.
Well Euro was far less than GFS in central and western areas. It was only a little less in eastern areas this run. I hope the GFS is correct since it’s a widespread 3-5” deal but I’m still fairly skeptical. I think 1-3” would still be my forecast right now.
Usually a good idea to toss outliers. GFS is just much juicier than most other guidance. If Euro juices up a decent amount then I'd probably be more intrigued.
Euro isn't that far off from the NAM solutions either...Euro is slightly juicier but not by a lot. I'd still be going 1-3" for most of SNE. I'd need more proof this system has the juice before putting a 2" floor on the forecast.
Both 3k and 12k are pretty paltry for SNE tomorrow. Would be hard to go more than 1-2"....however, NAM has been on the more paltry side of guidance for several runs now, so TBD if it ends up trending juicier.
Yeah he’s been on tilt…we’ll get him back if he can muster a decent event this week whether it’s Tuesday or Friday.
As for the lack of posts on Friday mentioned by others…it’s kind of hard to speak intelligently on that threat since it’s been moving hundreds of miles within a couple cycles. It would be nice to see some stabilization on guidance.
I’d keep it at 1-3” for most of SNE and adjust higher or lower if needed tomorrow. There’s a chance there could be a little sucker hole in the middle of SNE as the WAA dies out and the IVT gets going further northeast. We don’t know if that’s going to happen but if it does, there could be an area of 1” type totals. That’s why leave it at 1-3” for now.
Def could clip that area. That’s where most of the uncertainty is on this. We can quibble about 1.4” vs 3.5” over the interior but I don’t see any drastic changes.