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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    He's been in probably the worst spot in the entire region since Feb 2022. So I get it....at least the rest of us had at least a few decent events, but his area down toward Tblizz has been really bad. ORH might have been the worst spot relative to climo from 1988-1992.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Dude, I went 4 years without a double digit event in ORH.....think about that for a second and take into account the climo and location.
  3. ORH_wxman
    It's pretty good for CT, esp SW half....not good for E MA.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Now you are really living the ‘80s ….last winter was a small preview since it wasn’t a torch. But so far this year we’ve got well below normal temps and you get to watch the mid-Atlantic snow and then we rain on the next system and then rinse/repeat. That’s almost exactly how it went. Wasn’t that bad of a decade roughly Philly-southward.
  5. ORH_wxman
    I actually cant believe how cold the post-Xmas period is going to verify versus what models showed several days to a week ago....somehow, we still can't snow very much.
  6. ORH_wxman
    The stuff in upstate NY diving SE is what most of us in SNE want to watch for later. The BGM to SW CT stuff is just going to keep fizzling...the forcing for later comes from the upstate NY batch....whether that's enough for a couple inches or not is the question
  7. ORH_wxman
    3k NAM being pretty healthy too gives some hope though that the 12k isn’t on crack. Both NAMs show the initial WAA dying out midday east of ORH, but it regenerates a very healthy precip shield as the forcing from the northwest (that gives NNE most of their snow outside the norlun) punches in. So if they are right, we’d see a lot of blossoming precip on radar this afternoon. Esp after about 2-3pm.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Not sold yet though. Hrrr still hideous. Rap still hideous.
  9. ORH_wxman
    12z NAM came in decently healthier for this afternoon.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Might be C-1” inside of 128. Even here could struggle for an inch but that depends on if we get some better enhancement in the evening for about 2-3 hours. Won’t surprise me though if we get skunked given the last few years.
  11. ORH_wxman
    NAM being so dry is starting to be a little bit of a red flag I don’t think I’d change anything though over interior. Still prob 1-3”. Maybe if GFS and Euro jump ship.
  12. ORH_wxman
    BL gets kind of marginal down there. Prob flakes but could be white rain for a while. If you had some decent omega punching into the snow growth region, then it would prob rip. But this is a pretty weak system.
  13. ORH_wxman
    He’s so close to water which may be an issue for a time until winds go more N or NW. Light snow and 33-34 might struggle.
  14. ORH_wxman
    That was a very cold run. Very few torches. 12/28 gets messy with ice/rain but not warm at all. That Atlantic blocking just dominates for 10 days.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Euro a couple runs in a row trying to show a little enhancement in E MA tomorrow evening…maybe someone can crack 3” if that happened. Prob in the 128 belt to maybe 495..esp N of pike. Then there’s still the OES sig as the IVT rotates S and veers the winds back N for a time which puts the Cape into a decent spot.
  16. ORH_wxman
    There are still a significant number of ensemble members on both GEFS and EPS that hammer southern New England. Lot of spread. Honestly, anything is kind of gravy from that system as 2 days ago it looked like a rainstorm except way up in far NNE.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Yeah it doesn’t happen too often but this is admittedly a weird setup. We want to see ensembles tighten before really getting a good handle. The mean still has decent precip up into NNE so there’s a lot to spread.
  18. ORH_wxman
    It actually eroded the northern edge but the heavy stuff bumped a little north…which makes sense. It’s basically tightening the gradient. Prob a sharp cutoff in this system.
  19. ORH_wxman
    GFS continues to be mostly a whiff for 12/26-27 but it’s been creeping back north.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Yeah…high outlier comes back to earth. Still think 1-3” away from immediate shore is the good play.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Just when you think we're getting some model convergence, the 18z RGEM drops a turd on our head. Looks like those paltry NAM runs from earlier.
  22. ORH_wxman
    There's def an OES sig on the Cape for later on Christmas Eve. Euro has been showing it and 18z NAM has it too.
  23. ORH_wxman
    GFS is the higher end outlier....NAM is more like joining the rest of model consensus.
  24. ORH_wxman
    Def a better run than the last several paltry runs....it has been the low outlier, so good to see some convergence.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Well Euro was far less than GFS in central and western areas. It was only a little less in eastern areas this run. I hope the GFS is correct since it’s a widespread 3-5” deal but I’m still fairly skeptical. I think 1-3” would still be my forecast right now.
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