ORH_wxman

Yeah these soundings would be 20 to 1 easy....you don't want to forecast that unless its within 24h and all guidance agrees....but some alarm bells are going off in my head from some previous inverted trough setups that we had in the late 2000s and early 2010s that gave warning snowfall to localized spots. Anytime you get that very unstable low-level look. North shore right now looks like the best spot (and it might get down into BOS and your area too), but there's a chance of an interior band somewhere too.

At least this time you only missed the white Xmas by like 15 miles instead of 15 blocks

Someone could get a localized warning criteria snowfall out of this up on the north shore or maybe somewhere else that gets under a lucky band for 2-3 hours. Assuming some of these soundings are close to reality anyway....very unstable in the low levels with big omega and a cold sounding for DGZ. I'd think there's a chance for a big surprise somewhere.

Oh that was right near BOS at 57 hours

Some of the soundings have sfc CAPE between 50-100 joules

Pivotal has NAM soundings...just click on the map. Yeah its very unstable in the lower levels.

Lol, you're gonna stack it fast if you get this sounding

I believe 1967 is the coldest spring on record for a lot of stations in New England. Just ridiculous cold from March through May that year.

Looking at January departures at ORH, the warmest 10 day stretch was Jan 6-15. That averaged +8.9. Coldest 10 day stretch was Jan 22-31 which averaged -12.3…that stretch actually started with a +8.4 too on Jan 22, but then the next 9 blew that away. The rest of the days not listed on those two 10-day stretches were slightly BN in the aggregate so you get a total of a -3 month. December was more impressive on cold departures but January is minimum climo so getting those stretches in January feels a lot colder. December was nearly wire to wire BN cold…only the cutter on 12/18-19 and a couple other random mildish days interrupted the cold departures that month.

Model continuity on anything past Tuesday of next week has been AWFUL too...GFS coming out looks nothing like 12z at D7-8.

Midweek has not much support....its been off and on on guidance, but overall seems to be decreasing in probability as we get closer. The better signal is next weekend.

Can always adjust up

2/7 looks likely but prob not much…like C-2” type deal. Though I’d watch your area for a bit more. Wednesday seems least likely for anything. Several pieces of guidance have nothing.

1967 redux (Northern ORH county had 2 snow events that May including one on the Friday/Saturday of memorial day weekend)

Kind of a bush league warmup on EPS…keeps washing out the warmest anomalies west and northwest of us. Which is what we’d expect with a rotting NAO block. Maybe we get a cutter to get a couple days of true torch.

It’s there on eps but a bit of buckshot too

That’s a bit of an April ‘97 snowfall distribution in E MA (but not into S ME)

Wouldn’t put any stock into a d10-11 output regardless of which model it was. Well see how the AIs look vs OPs in another few days. AI runs have had that storm off and on the last few cycles.

Lock it in. Only 11 days to go

Yeah that’s later on post-Ides. I have no idea what’s going to happen during that late Feb/early Mar period. If you keep the Atlantic blocking during that period and then try and insert a -EPO, then we could get something exotic.

Def colder look mid-month….on both GFS and Canadian suites. Always be weary of the big torch look when you get blocking like that in the Atlantic…esp when there’s been a lot of recent cold with deep snow pack over a large area. Hopefully we can score one of these. Usually we can if historical -PNA/-NAO is any guide. Usually our bigger concern is ptype and not suppression.

Crazily enough, that month left some on the table too.

Yeah Mar 2018 blocking was epic you’d have shortwaves pretty amplified out in the plains/Rockies and the thing would turn into a snow threat.

2001 also kind of didn’t have the PV on our side for the most part. It was more over toward Europe and east Atlantic. Monster blocking in 2001 though. We did get a PV lobe in southeast Canada early that month which phased with the main trough to produce the interior New England HECS. But 2018 is prob the best example of not having the PV anywhere near us but still a prolific month due to the excessive blocking. That month didn’t have high end cold at all. We had basically a climo airmass for the first snow bomb on 3/7-8. A little colder for the Wilmington jackpot storm but still nothing impressive temp-wise.

Let’s go March 2018…PV on other side of pole but we just crushed it with that blocking regardless.