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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Over an inch of QPF with those temp profiles is not a “mid sized snowstorm”. That’s major and it’s possible the QPF is underdone a bit in a solution like that. It’s forming a CCB with 40-50 knots of inflow at 850…so there’s definitely mechanics for higher end totals. But even 1.25” of QPF at 14 to 1 is a 17” snowstorm.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Euro skynet gone wild
  3. ORH_wxman
    We used to joke in college that it was “processing” a monster solution as the reason for being late.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Euro is definitely a bit late today.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Yes but Thursday/Friday and Sunday (2/1) are far from consistent on guidance.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Yeah it’s prob wrong, esp when diverging from other guidance like that. Ukie loves semi-exotic solutions at random times in the medium range.
  7. ORH_wxman
    I moved the last page of posts about Sunday/Monday to the other thread. It’s gonna get messy in here with other storm signals showing up now for late Jan and early Feb.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Ukie looks a bit more subdued. Still gets that secondary cranking though. The initial overrunning struggles more.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Yes it does look slightly south of 06z.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Does he think it’s a flex to ride a 3-day old forecast when model guidance on the upper air evolution is moving against him? I haven’t read much of him, but doing that makes one come across as not being very scientific or evidence-based.
  11. ORH_wxman
    That’s basically what it is already on the solutions that don’t really energize the coastal (such as the icon at 12z)….but at least if that happens, this is a fantastic airmass and confluence setup to have a SWFE. Maximize the moisture.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Look at those soundings. Super deep DGZ. Even when the lift lowers to 900-950mb, it’s like -10 to 12C temps….congrats Scooter
  13. ORH_wxman
    @TheSnowman just needs to rip out a monster tune for this storm. Just rip it out as loud as you can and you’ll feel better.
  14. ORH_wxman
    We’re like 96-102 hours from start time. I don’t see an issue with making a thread. We can migrate over there at some point today.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Given there aren’t any ptype issues (as of now), you might as well just post QPF maps.
  16. ORH_wxman
    For cold storms like this, you’re gonna beat 10 to 1 unless you are on the northern edge where it will be arctic sand. So prob something in between the 10 to 1 and the Kuchie maps. Typical cold storm climo is somewhere in the 13 to 1 or 14 to 1 range…but obviously that can go much higher or lower depending on where the lift is focused.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Icon leaves energy behind which caps it. Prob more like a 8-14” type event. Ideally you want to keep most of the energy intact but at the same time not amp it too quickly so you can prolong the overrunning portion…then when the rest of it dives in from the backside of the trough, you blow up a coastal which turns it into a KU type storm. That’s threading the needle a bit there but it’s well within the possibilities.
  18. ORH_wxman
    It’s a pretty extreme setup. The thermals are optimal for wringing out a lot of moisture. In a more standard setup, you’d prob keep it more conservative if you didn’t much coastal/CCB stuff. But this is a prolonged overrunning with higher end WAA/Isentropic glide so you can do very well from that alone.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Yeah we could slam 10-15” alone from the overrunning if you push that north a bit more. But we’d def need a CCB type sig to get going if you want KU type totals over 20”.
  20. ORH_wxman
    My mom would sometimes bribe the street plow guy in ORH with a $10 bill to get our driveway in storms circa early/mid 1990s. In bigger ones you might have to go with a 20. Before we got a snowblower at my current place, we got a guy to get our driveway for 40 bucks in March 2018…that was a pretty good price even then. That was pre-inflation though.
  21. ORH_wxman
    I can’t remember the last time it was this cold right before a major storm hit. Maybe Jan 2005. Jan 1996 was up there too for cold intensity. Both had highs around 10F the day before. This might be even colder though. Most guidance keeps single digits for highs on Saturday over interior.
  22. ORH_wxman
    I’m just messing around. I don’t care if you’re worried about it. I honestly don’t think it’s worth getting worried about though this early. It’s a first world problem anyway….we could be staring at nothing on the horizon as an alternative like the last few years.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Ray is already thinking about Coke streamers on Cape Ann while he chokes on exhaust so it’s throwing him on tilt.
  24. ORH_wxman
    We’re talking about ineedsnow
  25. ORH_wxman
    Hopefully all the air being drawn in through the bellows of your accordion causes perfect phasing out west and produces a couple feet here.
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