ORH_wxman

Warming. Not warm. It gets pretty warm after 1/7

Wintry first sunset of the year.

Squalls were way more prolific than I would have thought. I’d expected maybe another half inch or something in the squalls, and instead it was like widespread 1-2” additional. To be fair though, 3-4” was still definitely in the minority of reports. But there were def a few more of them than I would’ve forecasted.

Hopefully today is more correct because that split flow +PNA look retrograding a little bit often does good things.

Yeah south shore cleaned up on those squalls. BOS kind of got shafted being a little too far north but just south of them got crushed.

We could use them so we actually don’t finish another year BN in snowfall. Getting weakening overrunning systems and clippers won’t be sustainable for anyone who averages over about 40” per year.

EPS evolution D11-15 is pretty good actually. It’s not the most frigid but it’s good if you want to set up a pattern for more coastals

EPS going with the OP in LR in really driving that PNA ridge up. That would bring in the chance for some coastals maybe in the 3rd week of the month.

Ensembles aren’t out yet…GEFS mostly out and they are kind of meh. OP euro decided to go cold post-1/11.

In everyone’s defense, these waves are pretty weak sauce. Not much upside. The 1/6 wave has the most upside imho if it can maintain enough integrity…better antecedent airmass too. But even that one prob has upside of like 3-5” and the reality is likely significantly less than that. Im more interested in the post-1/10 pattern evolution. Been a lot of variance on that.

There’s two different waves in there. GFS looked more robust snow-wise for 1/6 and then the follow up wave on 1/7-8 was kind of warm…but weak, almost really just a weak FROPA. Euro was weaker on 1/6 but a little colder on 1/7 and south which had a little shot of snow/ice with it.

Euro coming in colder for 1/7 also compared to 00z. Quick shot of snow/ice even into SNE.

ORH was -4.8. Coldest since 2017. 2nd coldest (only behind 2017) since the frigid December 2000. 12.3” of snow was slightly BN. Respectable month but would’ve been better if we hit on another moderate event. Snow cover was good though. I think something like 25/31 days with cover.

That WINDEX event actually ended up being our demise in many ways over the next 7-10 days. It kept the 1/30/10 system well south of us (that was the one that looked like a big NC/S VA hit but trended into a big N VA/MD hit. Fluff bomb.) Then the vortex from that WINDEX event just spun to our northeast with the huge block in place and kept 2/5-6/10 south of us.

There’s not lot of evidence we’re going to stay near normal at least for the 1/7-1/11 period. People can quibble on the magnitude of the warmth but it’s going to be AN. After that is a little dicier. There’s a big shift going on in the PAC. Looks like PV tries to get reestablished near Hudson Bay which would be a return to a colder pattern. The question is how quickly that happens. Could be in place by 1/12-13 or it could wait a week. Or something different could pop up on guidance. Seems to be pretty good consensus right now though on ensemble guidance.

Prob been since 1/28/10 since we had overperforming squalls this good down in SNE. That event was better in western and central areas whereas the squalls this time overperformed in east and southeast areas.

@amarshall too.

@SouthCoastMA must be getting crushed

Even if we have highs of something like low 40s over interior, that is pretty solidly above climo this time of year. We often measure our torches in how much the peak warmth is, but even if we don’t have any days of 50+, it will still be solidly AN for several days. If that system next weekend (around 1/10-1/11) ends up more CADish, then we could mute the warm departures somewhat but they will still be notable. If we warm sector in that system, we’ll make a run at 55+ easily.

Awesome band for SE areas

2.3” in Holliston

Incoming for PVD

Gonna be a good round 2 for you

Congrats Scooter…RI/MA border though is gonna get hit twice by the max intensity

Woonsocket might get like 2-3” from the squalls alone….man.