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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Even if we have highs of something like low 40s over interior, that is pretty solidly above climo this time of year. We often measure our torches in how much the peak warmth is, but even if we don’t have any days of 50+, it will still be solidly AN for several days. If that system next weekend (around 1/10-1/11) ends up more CADish, then we could mute the warm departures somewhat but they will still be notable. If we warm sector in that system, we’ll make a run at 55+ easily.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Awesome band for SE areas
  3. ORH_wxman
    2.3” in Holliston
  4. ORH_wxman
    Incoming for PVD
  5. ORH_wxman
    Gonna be a good round 2 for you
  6. ORH_wxman
    Congrats Scooter…RI/MA border though is gonna get hit twice by the max intensity
  7. ORH_wxman
    Woonsocket might get like 2-3” from the squalls alone….man.
  8. ORH_wxman
    I’d expect anything post-1/8 to be pretty poorly modeled right now with the big PAC changes going on. Our biggest chance at a monster torch day or two would be just beyond that…maybe 1/10ish if we warm sector cleanly with no precip like a few OP runs showed. But we’ve also seen some CAD looks around then too. So we wait. Heights will be way above normal but we don’t know on sfc temps yet.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Vis got down to about 100 yards here at one point. Maybe even slightly lower. Must’ve been beyond insane just to the south in the better echoes
  10. ORH_wxman
    Ghost of Scooter from St John incoming
  11. ORH_wxman
  12. ORH_wxman
    Ok maybe it was delayed a bit but this is insane now. Whiteout.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Could see a couple inches in the 1/6 disturbance if it doesn’t weaken too much.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Scooter gonna miss the best squalls for him since Dec 2003…at least he’s in tropical paradise
  15. ORH_wxman
  16. ORH_wxman
    Dumpage here right now. The very best is to my south though going through Franklin/Bellingham
  17. ORH_wxman
    Woulda been a real Bomb if we had a bit more PNA ridging.
  18. ORH_wxman
    It’s a very deep SGZ so that helps even in light snow. Still think 3-4” is a heavy lift but if you have very good snow growth, then you can fluff your way to 3” on like 0.13” of liquid. I just hate using ratios to try and get there…because I’ve seen good soundings before but if the lift ends up too weak or not organized, you don’t realize the potential.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Hopefully we actually get the EPO poleward like that. If so, it’s a decently cold look but also not suppressed…to support your analysis of it being a more storm-friendly pattern here. It is a bit riskier with the SE ridge lurking, but we have been through enough of these patterns to know that sometimes you need to play with fire to get the goods.
  20. ORH_wxman
    OP Euro today is kind of weak sauce on warmup as well. Not as much as Skynet....it does get pretty mild for a couple days, but no torching cutters....the 1/10 system bombs into the lakes but is more like a SWFE with snow/ice in CNE/NNE....SNE might be mixed to 35F rain in that scenario. But it just shows there's a lot of uncertainty even in a mild-ish longwave pattern. Early January is a good time to try and get away with a warmer longwave pattern.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Skynet is pretty weak sauce on the warmup out beyond the 7th. I don't think CNE-northward ever sees any liquid precip.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Gonna need big ratios I think though to be seeing 3-4" numbers...it's a pretty dry system. Even the upslope spots on the mesos are having trouble squeezing out 2 tenths of liquid.
  23. ORH_wxman
    That seems like a pretty bullish advisory given guidance...
  24. ORH_wxman
    Why are you engaging with QG? He hasn't been an honest actor since his handle was noreaster27 in the early days 12+ years ago.
  25. ORH_wxman
    I suspect that poster is referring to the 2-4 day mild spell when the EPO spike initially occurs. But yeah, it doesn't seem like a permanent shift to mild....the cold is right behind it.
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