ORH_wxman

One good thing is that i do like how potent the energy is. Guidance will often dampen/weaken it too quickly. Hopefully a similar scenario here.

Ensembles have an interesting western ridge spike near the end of their run around 1/25. A few of the OP runs have been showing a bigger system around then too. I’d also still keep an eye on potential SWFE type system around 1/18-19

Let’s get some positive trends today. Potential is still high even if all these moving parts make it a tough system to expect big snows with. But hell, I don’t even need the double digit upside here, as much as many of us want it, I’d take a solid 5-8” event and hope we can tack on other systems in this pattern.

Yeah bark is worse than bite here.

Got a bit squashed this run. This is prob the type of system that wont be that stable until we’re inside 100 hours. It’s an imperfect setup with a bunch of moving parts…why it’s still somewhat of a longshot to deliver big snows (not talking a 1-3/2-4 type deal)

These are also the types of wins we’d get in the 2010s constantly. Trends that helped us so often in the medium range instead of trending to crap. But when you’re going cold like we’ve been, very few of these work out.

Today was also only the 8th day without pack this winter. Most of those days were between 12/8-12/14…had a couple before New Years too.

Peaked at 44 here today during the day but 41 now. Midnight high of 48.

No those were the squalls you missed. That was actually one of the few overperfomers we’ve had in the last few years, lol. I had like an inch from the regular snow and then got blasted with another 1.5” in like 30 minutes from squalls.

Euro is still a bit disorganized but hard to hate that run given the timeframe and what previous runs looked like

Ok it is gonna be a hit looking at 120h

Might deliver this run but even if it doesn’t, that’s a huge positive trend.

Still there but hard to really talk coherently about it given it’s like 9 days out. A lot will depend on what happens with the first one.

Next Friday is basically this on model guidance: Interested: GFS, GEFS,Euro Skynet, GFS Skynet Disinterested: Euro, EPS, GGEM, Ukie Icon is maybe on the fence.

To be fair to the black ice weenies, you talk about DAW like it’s ISP.

Yeah I’m not trusting the GFS when it’s basically on an island for next Friday. I’ll want to see other guidance get back on board for that system. Although both skynet models like next Friday too. Maybe Arnold comes through.

Roaring here too in Holliston (though I’m on a hill southwest facing.)

Yeah, it is unfair to grade someone's forecasting ability if they aren't actually issuing forecasts on here. Talking about the pattern isn't issuing a forecast. You can disagree with their pattern analysis, but it's not fair to call it a forecast if they were just analyzing an ensemble run or a model run. Some mets and plenty of amateurs do issue forecasts from time to time, and those are fair game to critique as well. But I think people should be clear about what they are critiquing. Model analysis is not the same as an actual forecast. And I also don't think it is an indictment on anyone's skill if they post more or less depending on what type of sensible wx the models are showing. I'm sure most mets on here have a lower post rate when we have a vortex over AK and a zonal mild flow in mid-winter. I know I do. I could keep posting about whether the zonal flow might change enough to give us high temps of 54F instead of 47F, but that is about as interesting to me as watching paint dry, so I normally refrain. There are others on here to pick up the slack on that type of discussion if I don't want to do it. Additionally, I think "pattern talk" is much more likely to occur during periods where there are no imminent threats. We're searching for the next "interesting period". We all know that in rapid-fire stretches of winter storms, we are not constantly posting much about longwave patterns or what some vague D11-15 signal might produce....we're dissecting smaller scale features over a short term storm threat, and maybe tracking another one in the medium range. All of the oxygen gets sucked up during those times with the threats themselves and not pattern talk.

I think the D7 event is a long shot (but it does have a decent ceiling if it can back into us)....the one after seems like it has more OP hits including the skynet suite. EuroAI really liked the 1/18-19 system for multiple runs recently. All of this is still in marginal clown range, but its the best we've seen all winter in terms of higher end threats.

I think the most important takeaway from the 12z suite is that the longwave ridge is onshore out west or right on the coast and it has a couple pulses up and down…when you have that longwave setup, you’re putting yourself in the firing range so you’re going to get some legit chances with even a little bit of wiggle room. That’s why we’re seeing hits on different models that all look a slightly different with the shortwave evolution. But they all produce something because the longwave pattern wants to put a storm system near the east coast. Hopefully we don’t see that longwave look degrade as we get closer.

Euro likes 1/17….just to trick everyone. It’s really the 1/18 storm but the lead shortwave takes the energy and does a little bomb just SE of us.

That is a horrific map. Not sure what they were looking. Usually the NESIS maps are good for looking at the general idea of the snow distribution despite being too conservative, but this map is completely wrong and way too aggressive with the snow in SNE and NJ/NYC

The weekend system also kind of sneakily morphed into a pretty low QPF event. Almost that shredded SWFE look on the precip. The bulk of the WCB misses to our east and the CCB is way back up in eastern Ontario/western Quebec. Leaves us kind of in a dead zone of forcing in between the two.

Yeah as the storm intensifies offshore, it pulls in that arctic airmass…that high is moving E at the same time. I honestly have no idea if we even get a storm, but assuming we got something semi-depicted, it could be one of those systems that starts as pure paste (or even mixed/rain on coastal plain) and then it advects in much colder air as it gets drawn into the CCB. The biggest big dog in Mar ‘18 kind of did that. First few inches were like spackle here and then we ended up with 2 feet, the latter 20” was mostly pure powder as temps plummeted in the CCB. At this point, I’d take just a minimal warning event and I’d consider that a huge win if we somehow squeezed out that type of event next Friday.

I agree. I’d think that would produce something. It could be of those systems that takes a wide left turn but really comes back N and slams New England if you time the neg tilt correctly.