ORH_wxman

Prob borderline warning here. Not buying that much yet but hopefully rest of 12z guidance keeps ticking W

I feel like it overdoes diabatic warming when there’s no obvious high or ageo flow from the north. Esp beyond 24h…euro actually used to to this pretty bad too but now it’s much better than a few years back.

Yeah it’s prob a little on the warm side…just not egregiously so. I’d prob shave a couple degrees off it around here. Euro seemed more realistic.

Yeah I don’t see an issue with this run. All guidance has 32-35 tomorrow during the day until it falls late afternoon. The real snow doesn’t happen until then anyway. There’s some front-running stuff that has been a relatively recent development on most guidance that falls morning/midday but it’s not the main show…at least for eastern areas it isn’t.

Icon was more amped too.

The vort didn’t quite curl like 00z but everything started west so the end result was pretty similar to 00z…it was heftier south of here. Maybe a bit better on south shore as well.

06z NAM is coming in more amped than 00z through 27h

Yeah look at that vortmax. Much better on the 00z run. That’s what we need to watch. If you can allow that to stay more consolidated with a bit of H5 curl, you can escalate things pretty fast.

Man, if we could get a last second trend of trying to curl this vortmax under SNE, we could escalate the totals pretty quick. Only problem with such a fine trigger is it doesn’t take much to make this a whiff in the other direction.

Didn’t you say it was already pretty far NW earlier…must be zonked now

That’s a pretty solid advisory event for eastern third….maybe even flirting with low end warning type stuff in far SE MA

NAM significantly west

Yeah as bad as this stretch has been, I haven’t sniffed futility. ORH hasn’t had a season below 40” during this stretch and even here they’ve all been over 30”. Terrible seasons but just mundanely terrible and wouldn’t be particularly noteworthy if they were surrounded by normal or AN winters….its just the fact we’ve gotten several in a row.

Probably nobody. Though ironically your area is prob the best chance even though you also have the best chance of getting shutout (actually prob just barely to your east has the best shot at getting shutout from both…like Windham county up 495 belt)

Yeh I was gonna respond and forgot…but eerily similar if you just look at relative heights…gotta adjust for era, but those ‘79-80 heights relative to eachother are pretty close to this year so far. Go figure, I used to post that map as an example of a decent winter pattern where we just got boned. Happens again 46 years later. Maybe we’ll break the bad juju with this two week stretch coming up where we’ll have plenty of chances. But if we roll snake eyes during that too….we can throw this winter into the wood chipper. Irredeemable at that point. I’d revert myself to hoping for an exotic HECS in March.

Prob a good forecast. Unless you’re down further SE where there’s a chance for more.

OP euro might actually have ticked a little better.

These are slow moves by 18z Skynet. I wonder if it’s going to just be slow caves each run from here or if we get a full rug-pull on one of these runs tonight.

Same family

This event looks like crap SE of FIT-DXR line. Maybe ORH to Kevin can still grab 1-2” if the precip is there.

Yeah it def bumped SE but it’s still pretty much right on par with yesterday’s runs and now it looks pretty close to Euro AI. It had been increasing today until 18z. Either way the gap is still huge between both AIs and the OP runs. Fwiw I do not think they are going to win but even a 50/50 compromise is still a decent event for SE areas anyway.

The Canadians and skynet versus everyone else. Maybe we can pull a Miracle on Ice 1980 out of our ass....this winter has been about on par with '79-'80.

Tomorrow looks like dogshit for anyone east of FIT-DXR line.

It doesn’t have to mean that, but it’s often a good sign in that if we get the vort a little better, we’d prob see a fast bump west on main precip shield. You get the IVT because while the thermal gradient is being shunted too far east (usually because WCB is too weak), we’re getting good dPVA which wants to drop the pressure at the sfc. The goal is get that to line up witn the thermal gradient and then we’d be in sync.

Ray will be excited that he gets IVT snow on the 18z NAM