ORH_wxman

BOX AFD def went somewhat wild…but I mostly agree with going bullish for the zones they did. That cross hair sig has been on almost every single model sounding. So wherever a band can set up, it’s gonna stack fast. That and the LL lapse rates are crazy good.

Yeah I think a lot of it is timing which isn't a surprise when you look at the upper level trough....it's coming in via a -PNA look on the west coast, so it's very broad as is crosses the middle of the CONUS....so given the broad trough, prob a lot of timing differences on when energy pops the best coastal.

BVY up to Salem, Manchester-by-the-sea, and Cape Ann could be ground zero. These are fickle so no guarantees, but those spots have done very well before on IVT/Norlun-esque setups. These soundings are excellent too for those near the coast with those steep low level lapse rates being even more enhanced.

Snowiest EPS run in a while....there's multiple chances in there. Decent signal for next Saturday, but far from tight consensus...good Scooter high in Quebec though

Both 18z NAMs held fairely steady though the 3k reduced the wildness in Essex county and maybe got a touch jucier in metrowest/central MA. But the same idea...still the best shot at warning is North shore.

Forecast 0-6” and you’ll be covered for that event. I’d hedge on the lower side for now though. Looks moisture-starved.

Very similar to what I posted above about gem and GFS failing but the euro succeeds in getting it up here. It’s a classic -PNA/-NAO split flow look. They can work awesome for us at times.

It’s weird how euro has been ignoring the north shore jackpot…inclined to toss it

OP euro is pretty cold. Snow for almost all of SNE but it’s basically just a WAA band and not very much QPF. Best QPF is actually NNE on euro. Maybe 1-2 SNE and 2-4 NNE. Paltry system.

Both GFS and GEM try and rain here for that one…though there is sleet/ice on the front end. Skynet models have been consistently colder on that threat.

Yeah and they might even need a warning in Essex county. I think they’ll prob go advisory for eastern half of SNE in their afternoon update. Seems like there is enough confidence in widespread 2-4/3-5 over ORH, Middlesex, Bristol, Norfolk, PYM counties….and prob all of RI. Eastern CT a little trickier. Windham and New London counties prob decent chance of advisory…even back to Tolland county…but guidance a little more variable in CT compared to RI/E MA. There’s a chance someone down near south coast around GON to Old Lyme could get a big surprise too. That’s been showing up as a secondary or tertiary maximum zone outside of North Shore.

Kind of a split flow look out west late next week and weekend with low heights over NE and SE Canada…. Both OP GEM and OP GFS don’t quite succeed but you can see the potential

12z herpes looks like GFS…maybe not quite as wild but same idea

That’s prob a lot of low end warning snow on GFS for eastern half of SNE. Don’t think I’d go quite that bullish but there will def be spots that see low end warning imho.

3k NAM gives BVY and Manchester-by-the-sea like 12-15”.

Yeah there’s general lift with the height falls and LL convergence does migrate across the region but where it slows down or temporarily stalls is where the jackpot will be. But I think almost everyone gets 1-2” minimum.

06z euro starting to line up with a lot of other guidance…that’s pretty widespread advisory stuff for eastern half of into CNE

The soundings are quite unstable in the lower to midlevels. If you can localize a little extra lift in that type of sounding, then you can get some surprises that happen quickly.

I think someone will have a nice surprise. Don’t know exactly where but I wouldn’t be shocked to see a lucky area get solid warning criteria.

If he gets 3-4” and ORH, me and Scooter get 1-2”, best event of the season.

They won’t radiate Saturday night with strong CAA but Sunday night they might. Winds take a while to subside and there could be some cloud cover trying to move in so we may not see a lot of radiators going wild during this cold shot, but the best chance is Sunday night.

This weekend is more of a wind chill event than an absolute temp event. We’ll see how low ORH and BOS go since they are non-radiators. I’ll be impressed if BOS can get near 0F and ORH can crack -5F.

Doesn’t matter. QPF is the only map anyone should look at with the ptype being all snow

Weeklies have been on and off with the blocking in march. This run was still pretty cold but didn't have much Atlantic blocking. But previous runs have had it. It's the hardest form of blocking to predict though, so can't take much stock in that part of it. You can see the trailing 5-day mean here for Mar 10-15 (similar for the several days around it).....basically a +TNH pattern....but if we throw a bit more ATL blocking on top if guidance is struggling with that, then you could imagine it could get pretty fun...but even this pattern could do some things

1930s had some epic torches....I'm sure the dust bowl helped out....low dewpoint air everywhere. But even some of the winters in the '30s were obscenely warm...quite the contrast when you mix in a 1933-34 with those warm winters....kind of like having 2014-15 next to 2015-16 last decade. (early 1950s are sneaky VERY warm in NNE too)