Jump to content

ORH_wxman

Moderator Meteorologist
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    91,797

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    It would keep trending little by little each run until it was a 12-18” job eastern areas and 6-12 west
  2. ORH_wxman
    At least the skynets are pretty interested this time. They had no interest in the 1/15 threat.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I was hoping winter storm watches would be posted tonight.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Yep. Almost had 10” in Jan 7, 2024 but fell just shy. Ditto Feb 25, 2022
  5. ORH_wxman
    We might as well get a HECS to break the streak. Last time I went this long without a double digit event, the streak was broken by December ‘92 storm.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Could easily have that 1/24-25 system cut. Depends how much phasing you get. Keeping the shortwave kind of separated from the main PV as long as possible is essential to getting a huge overrunning storm like we see in the 18z run….check out the 12z run if you want to see how it cuts.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Scooter high special
  8. ORH_wxman
    18z GFS trying to make this interesting on 1/18-19....not gonna quite get there but that was a pretty good sharpening of the trough compared to previous runs.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Yeah that was a pretty decent trend toward those GEFS members on the icon. Want to see euro get more enthused though.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Not to mention we’ve had several systems that were initially amped get crunched SE and whiffs or something less impressive…even including the “cutter” this past weekend which ended up a sheared out piece of trash with lots of CAD.
  11. ORH_wxman
    We definitely believe you. Just add in a few more smiley faces to really convince the rest.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Hopefully it looks more like this than a cutter
  13. ORH_wxman
    Oh it’s there. Might get interrupted briefly by a nice cutter but it’s there. We’ll finish January BN on temps unless there is a huge shift in guidance post-weekend.
  14. ORH_wxman
    OP euro is trying for 1/19-20. Actually hits CNE/Maine pretty good. Gets MA with light snows. A little late developing.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Going bye-bye with the big WPO shift again. We warmed up due to the AK/Bering vortex…but back to the heavy -WPO after this week.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Yeah which is why I’m looking forward to the gradient pattern at this point. We might get a cutter but at least there will be QPF events to track in that type of pattern.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Meridional flow definitely overcomes a lot of imperfections.
  18. ORH_wxman
    The funny part is it never corrects itself. I’ve seen countless threats that had interference but it was overcome either due to vort strength or one of the shortwaves changed slightly. But we’ve never trended away from it recently.
  19. ORH_wxman
    I’ll give 1/18-19 another day or so to trend better but otherwise yeah, we wait until post-1/20
  20. ORH_wxman
    Unlikely we get anything of note. I’ll still hold out a little hope for 1/18-1/19 but we need some good trends on that over the next day or two.
  21. ORH_wxman
    What the most interesting out of the entire synoptic landscape over the next 7-9 days is that we see this mean trough in an almost ideal spot over the eastern third of the CONUS with multiple shortwaves that dive into that mean trough and we fail to get a single decent QPF event out of it. It’s almost the anti-2015….surgical precision of somehow not producing.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Give it a couple weeks. We’ll get the inevitable Biloxi, MS blizzard warning while we have a thread for -15F low temps.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Last year was sneaky cold too (compared to recent winters anyway), though not nearly as cold as this one has been. Both winters have featured a dearth of big systems. It’s just been a lot of dryness.
  24. ORH_wxman
    That was a really good stretch actually after a very frustrating January. We got a moderate event on 1/26 which turned the tide and then we got a big dog on 2/1 and a pretty big event on 2/7. We had our pack over 20” for a time.
  25. ORH_wxman
    You mean we’re not gonna get 100” in 3 weeks? My forecast just got blown up.
×
×
  • Create New...