ORH_wxman

AIs are liking the overrunning system while OPs suppressing it. Let’s see how consistent AI is in the coming few days vs the OPs. Wonder if we see another bias-correction win for the AIs….I had mentioned just a couple posts up how you often see those types of systems come north. I wonder if the AI models already know that from past data and are correcting for it. It will be interesting to track either way.

Don’t think the rates are there for a lot of warning amounts. But there will def be some good snow growth I think got a few hours this evening.

Always watch massive gulf-infused overrunning setups. They love to come north. So seeing them down south right now at this juncture isn’t the worst thing. There’s clearly a lot of spread anyway…EPS has QPF well into New England on these 24h panels.

Fwiw, I think it’s good to talk about it a lot because the more we all recognize and point out where the AIs were successful, then we can start to pick up patterns….maybe they are good in some types of setups and crappier in others relative to the OP guidance.

Yes but we just don’t use it in the shorter term since we have great short term models. If we can rely on AI as a solid tool for medium range, then that has a lot of value.

It’s gonna look mostly like crap for a while if guidance is correct. It will start to look better to our south and southwest around mid afternoon….youll see precip start to blossom and expand over NJ and south of LI.

Not very good in short term. It def kicked the operational’s butts though in that D3-5 period.

Yeah I think you guys will stack decently between 00z and 06z. Prob will be slow going until then. That’s true for most of us actually. Central’ and western CT folks a little earlier on the meat of the stuff.

This is what I was talking about earlier on a lot of these runs this evening. That heavier stuff is slamming the DGZ pretty hard…this is the latest hrrr but NAM has been showing it pretty consistently for several hours….so there could be some pretty efficient QPF to accumulation ratios if that pans out (and as a rule, you can lower that DGZ a little for us in SNE since we tend to have a lot of salt nuclei in the clouds here versus much of the country further away from the ocean)

14z run def looks healthier. Hopefully it’s catching a real trend.

Feb 2023 was bare ground. But we had snow pack for Jan 2019, late Dec 2017/early Jan 2018, and Feb 2016. Any other arctic outbreaks since 2016 that I didn’t list were prob pretty meh so they don’t stick out to me. But that Feb ‘23 outbreak was so impressive considering it was bare ground and yet it fell in prestigious company for all time lows at some of the major SNE sites.

That band in SE MA is crushing

Could be a SE MA special. The trend since last night has been to reduce the vort curl. That will limit how far west the good stuff makes it.

This snow was actually shown on a decent amount of guidance. But it’s not expected to be much. If you grab anything more than an inch or so, consider it pure gravy. Someone down in SE MA might get a lucky few inches from that band before the main show later.

Here’s the link https://www.weathertap.com/radar/local?site=KBOX&type=N0R&attr=ANI

Really nice band down in SE areas. PYM county over to upper cape.

The one thing that looks really good though is ratios might be excellent later in the system if NAM soundings have any clue. Esp later tonight/overnight/early AM. Even the IVT stuff with low level lift is in the DGZ and could produce some fluff. Something to watch.

I think I’d go 3-6/4-7 here. Don’t think the dynamics are there for lots of 6-8 type amounts. Maybe that changes, but subtle trend overnight of reducing the “curl” in the vort as it passes by.

We had about 3 tenths this morning that partially melted and then another couple tenths in the afternoon. Half inch total.

There’s a lot of “hangback” snow showing up on the mesos and even the euro kind of had it. Pretty robust IVT sig. Sometimes those can tack on an unexpected inch or two…esp when you get colder on the back end and even low level lift is in the DGZ.

NAM looks exceptional in the soundings too during the evening hours for a time. Lots of cross hair sig showing up. Hopefully it’s correct.

One thing that might help is that when looking at these soundings, the DGZ is pretty deep. So if we can get any type of decent deep layer lift, I’m guessing ratios will be pretty good even for a “wet snow”….its pretty cold off the deck during the meat of it so even 31-32F at the sfc could produce what I call “dry wet snow”. It’s kind of superficially wet maybe on the very sfc but it still is dry enough to hold lots of air if the snow growth is good. Just something to keep an eye on. If we see a lot of 5-6” amounts where 0.3-0.4” of QPF is being progged, it might not be a QPF bust, but better-than-expected ratios. Now if we just get lighter crap, none of this will even be relevant.

I’m actually liking my spot tomorrow. Far enough inland with a little elevation to avoid major temp issues, but far enough east to hopefully get some good bands even on an 18z scenario. I still think SE MA is going to rip for a while. Might have to wait until 00z for the real goods but they should arrive. I think the midday/PM stuff could be kind of banded/spotty…if it isn’t, that’s a positive sign.

I’d like to see that early band showing up more robustly on other guidance. Some guidance shows legit snow in that while others are kind of insignificant (like maybe an inch or so).

Hard to see 8” back into the deeper interior.