ORH_wxman

He's already melting down and we're one week after Thanksgiving. If Taunton gets a 6"+ snow event prior to Xmas even in a coldish December, that's a win. My guess is there's a reasonable shot of that happening this year given the pattern outlook. I don't blame Brett totally though....his formative snow weenie years were very prolific in December even in SE MA. The 2000s were ridiculous relative to climo across SNE, but especially in SE MA in December. Our generation was hard-wired into being cynical about snow given what we had to deal with in our formative years.

ORH had back to back single digit lows in Nov 2018. So you know it wasn't fake.

Looks pretty weak. But maybe we can grab a C-1” deal.

Looked worse than 12z. GFS prob on crack.

At least we aren’t watching Pensacola FL get a blizzard like last year.

Congrats Scooter on that run. But yeah, thats a solid mid to high end advisory type event on that depiction for a large majority of SNE/CNE.

18z GFS looking quite healthy through 66 hours with the northern stream shortwave digging in MN....this run might be just as good or even better than 12z.

18z NAM in clown range looking pretty decent again for Sunday night. Maybe we can slowly trend this into at least a measurable event for a lot of folks. Beats nothing.

Also no real torchy weather in sight (any brief “cutting” clippers aside). Have to watch the mid-month torch potential but it looks more and more muted for our region versus plains and southeast.

Lot of nickel and dimes but it wouldn’t take much to get a little heftier on one of them. The Dec 11-12 could end up bigger.

Next week is interesting too on Euro for Dec 11-12.

12z euro trying for Sunday night. Maybe a C-1” deal. Esp eastern areas. Dig that northern stream a little more and we might pop something closer to GFS.

06z euro was close. Hopefully it ticks a bit better at 12z and then I’ll be more intrigued. We’re kind of due for a solid advisory clipper.

Prob Dec 17, 2020 (cape got screwed but the rest of SNE basically got 10”+)…Jan ‘22 wasn’t that good out west and Feb 2021 really screwed the coast.

GFS is partially phasing the two streams which helps it amplify Sunday night.

3-6” in like 1991 would have half the population storming the grocery stores. I remember back then how massive a 3-6/4-8” storm sounded. Im ok with nickels and dimes over the next week as long as we keep the longer wave pattern advertised. I think we’ll score something bigger at some point. We get a huge -WPO reload too so I don’t think the general cold pattern is going anywhere regardless of whether we relax a touch mid-month or not.

I honestly wonder if the last few winters are playing into it. We’ve had so much marginal temps and warmth since 2022. Last year was colder but we still had marginal temps in several storms. I think it will take a few bigger events to clear out the stench/hangover. Also to be fair, the sfc temps looked pretty warm last event…but they busted much colder. I would prefer they just say the temps are marginal as the reason and not talk about December sun angles.

And we had forecasts worried about sun angle in December a couple days ago. I also still have ice on the trees.

12z NAM (granted in clown range for that model) trying to show it if you went out another couple panels. 06z Euro was closer too but no cigar. Maybe we can trend into a 1-3” type deal. We’re not used to positive trends but they used to happen.

One good part about this pattern is that it looks very active in the flow. Sometimes we’ll get cold patterns and then have to wait days and days to see even a decent shortwave show up in the flow but this is not one of those looks. It doesn’t mean we get buried but you always want to increase your odds. Getting a bit out in clown range, but it looks active even after any potential reload mid-month.

March 21-22, 2013. Local jackpot over a foot near Acushnet/Fairhaven/Mattapoisett but I think your old place in Wareham had at least 8-10”? If not more. That was a real good one. Very intense where it happened. I remember tracking that one late evening on the 21st. I’m sure we could find the thread.

One of them was Dec 13, 1988….i remember I thought how lucky we were to get 1-2” but it turned out just west of ORH about 3 towns over had 6”. That would’ve extended down to your area.

How would to EPS and Euro show New Years Day temps? they don't go out far enough

That mid month torch is looking more and more flaccid each run of the EPS/Euro. GEFS are still trying for it for several days but I’ll say that the EPS has been taking the GEFS to the woodshed in the medium/long range over the past few weeks.

Euro has a little clipper overnight 12/9-10. Bigger looking clipper for 12/11…that one almost morphs into a SWFE. There’s stuff to watch at least.