ORH_wxman

Yeah it def bumped SE but it’s still pretty much right on par with yesterday’s runs and now it looks pretty close to Euro AI. It had been increasing today until 18z. Either way the gap is still huge between both AIs and the OP runs. Fwiw I do not think they are going to win but even a 50/50 compromise is still a decent event for SE areas anyway.

The Canadians and skynet versus everyone else. Maybe we can pull a Miracle on Ice 1980 out of our ass....this winter has been about on par with '79-'80.

Tomorrow looks like dogshit for anyone east of FIT-DXR line.

It doesn’t have to mean that, but it’s often a good sign in that if we get the vort a little better, we’d prob see a fast bump west on main precip shield. You get the IVT because while the thermal gradient is being shunted too far east (usually because WCB is too weak), we’re getting good dPVA which wants to drop the pressure at the sfc. The goal is get that to line up witn the thermal gradient and then we’d be in sync.

Ray will be excited that he gets IVT snow on the 18z NAM

We’ve had some hard west trends on scrapers before in the final 48 hours (2/5/16 is one that really stands out…1/7/17 as well)….that wouldn’t be terribly unique. But it hasn’t happened in a while.

We hope so. That would probably bode very well for Sunday in SNE of Saturday trends another 75-100 miles NW (I’m not expecting that it will)

This is a pretty good theory. I wonder if the bias-correction also showed up (mostly successfully imho) in the “cutter” last weekend. A lot of OP models several days out kept showing big warm sectoring into New England but the AI models kept saying no dice and it would be much colder with wedging at the sfc. Much like what happens very frequently in the past where models get too warm-sector happy east of the Apps and north of about 41N. They turned out more correct. I think they were a touch too cold but closer to reality than the original OP runs…however, the biggest difference this time around is the OPs are still pretty far apart from AI. By the time we got inside 48h last weekend, the OP and AI guidance were mostly converged.

Let’s beat the 1996 record. I remember following that entire cold outbreak on TWC back then. It was Embarrass, MN that hit -64. The NWS didn’t recognize that officially though. Tower hit -60 for the official record.

EPS looked better too. Gets 1-2” from about Ginxy up to BOS. Gonna need another bump NW for real snow though.

I like all 4. Most nervous about SEA though. 49ers always give them fits.

2” of QPF on that prog back to Litchfield county. That was a pretty high stakes miss by the euro even though by 2015 standards, the distance miss wasn’t speculator.

There’s a mild possibility that Tolland is smack in the middle of the pack-less zone. Like draw a 20-30 mile oval around Tolland.

Yeah our ceiling isn’t that high in this one. Only exception is I could maybe see the cape/islands get something pretty high end if everything trended almost perfectly with stronger vort and a little more downstream ridging allowing this to blow up a good midlevel circulation. We can’t get it back that far for the true goods, but it wouldn’t be implausible for Cape.

At least we get -40 at 850 showing up next week on Euro over MN.

The dynamics in that system too were just a completely different spectrum versus this attenuating disaster.

Yeah the ponds around here couldn’t really come close to losing their ice even though we spent like 48-60 hours above freezing. It was pretty thick going into that warm up. Also helps that we didn’t have massive dews and warm rain with it. Now it’s just gonna get crazy thick with this temperature look over the next 10-12 days.

Yes, we’re right on the line of it escaping east as a total whiff. But it doesn’t take a whole lot of change to get a GGEM solution which gives advisory snow even up into your ‘hood.

Yep, sometimes you know it’s fake or overdone when the model dynamics don’t look impressive. Likewise, well often talk about how the model QPF prob isn’t reflecting the dynamics far enough NW on other systems. What makes this system so tough is we have a negatively tilted shortwave with vortmax running up and usually that’s a slam dunk for a biggish event, but in this case, we’re racing against the attenuation of it….and very small shifts can make a large impact on the sensible wx of it. If you attenuate it too quickly, it never starts to “capture” the sfc in the Atlantic and get those conveyors cranking…but a slightly stronger/consolidated vort will start to capture all the lower level circulation and very quickly crank out heavier QPF

That vort is going to be so key….if it can stay a bit stronger/consolidated longer, it’s going to force the WCB action more which will directly help heights rise ahead of the system.

I actually like how it’s getting heavier precip into E NC and the tidewater area of VA. That often bodes well for eastern MA. Hopefully we see that trend up the coast a bit more in subsequent runs.

Slight tick better. I did like seeing the vort try and stay more consolidated longer.

Tip said yesterday it reminds him of the old MRF graphics…that’s a pretty good description.

I just am morbidly curious how long they will keep doubling down.

Lol it actually got better versus 06z. What a mega disaster this is gonna be for the skynets. Or it will be one of the great coups.