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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Needs some work but I wouldn’t rule out an interior shovelable event yet for 1/18. I’m more optimistic beyond that timeframe though.
  2. ORH_wxman
    A lot of the AK coast can be feast or famine like that. They’ll get destroyed for weeks but then they can go like 1-2 months with nada.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Let’s tighten that vort a little more and crush 495. Close that run.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Couple nice beefy SWFEs in the extended on 18z GFS. EPS hinted at this too which is why it has been showing some snow in the 11-15 day. Would be nice to track some higher QPF systems. These less than half inch QPF events are getting brutal.
  5. ORH_wxman
    1/18 has been subtly trending a little better today....won't be that interesting unless it continues to do so for another couple of cycles.
  6. ORH_wxman
    I think he was talking about the 3-week "blitz"....not just the 1/26-27 blizzard. We're unlikely to see that again in our lifetimes. Getting 80-100" of snow in 3 weeks is pretty hard to pull off.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Yeah the joint EPO/PNA ridge....kind of like 2015. Usually doesn't verify these days, but I'd take even just the PNA part since antecedent cold in Canada will already be good.
  8. ORH_wxman
    No, why would anyone “trust” guidance this far out for anything? But I’m not going to get overly emotional and assume everything will fail because the previous events failed. It’s actually a good sign that we’re getting some hits in the extended on OP runs. GFS likes 1/24 too and so did EPS.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Pretty close calls on 18z GFS for 1/18 and 1/20. Gonna be some epic pond skating again by the 23rd.
  10. ORH_wxman
    The cold did leave for a week-plus but it's def not staying away....once we get past Thursday, it's basically BN out to near the end of the month perhaps....we'll see how February starts. Weeklies have been flip-flopping from cold to warm for early Feb.
  11. ORH_wxman
    No shortage of cold as far out as the eye can see on guidance. We just can’t get any type of QPF to run into it.
  12. ORH_wxman
    300-400 mile move in 24 hours....though the possibility was always there due to the massive spread on ensembles. But there's a reason a few days ago I mentioned that 1/15-16 would be all gravy if we got it....it was a very thread-the-needle type look if there ever was one to use as an example.
  13. ORH_wxman
    It's kind of wild that just taking a random loop of the 06z GFS, we have like 3-4 distinct shortwaves over the next 10 days that dive into the eastern US and none of them can produce any meaningful QPF. Hopefully that changes, but this is quickly turning into a very dry winter if we can't get these things to produce anything.
  14. ORH_wxman
    I will say that the EPS continues to get snowier and snowier in the LR. They never got too bullish about the 1/15-1/20 period but they been really liking the period after that. So for us masochists who like tracking these things, that would be your beacon of hope.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Yeah we’re in bad shape for areas that can’t make it up with a couple of decent warning events. The funny part is the pattern still looks totally serviceable with plenty of cold around and nearby in S Canada but if we’re not getting any of these shortwaves to play ball, it’s all meaningless. Can’t buy an event to actually verify.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Maybe we can grab a below zero low or two with bare ground with the post MLK pattern.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Well you got your wish with the troll thread. Congrats.
  18. ORH_wxman
    all joking aside, that’s a problem with these more recent runs starting with the 18z Euro. The H5 trough isn’t deepening as further south as earlier runs.
  19. ORH_wxman
    She gone…maybe.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Clown range NAM doesn’t look bad.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Not the exact same setup but seeing some of these paltry depictions despite a deep closed ULL to our south reminds me a bit of the model fumbling prior to 2/15/15. The 18z euro is not included in that because that was so much further north than any other recent runs.
  22. ORH_wxman
    With this storm, if you don’t like a model solution, just wait 6 hours.
  23. ORH_wxman
    We’ll see what the EPS looks like this run. There was a ton of spread on the 12z eps so this type of solution is within the envelope.
  24. ORH_wxman
    Actually brings a pseudo-CCB into Maine that run. That’s how far north it was.
  25. ORH_wxman
    GEFS is able to swing that shortwave negative to our south which is what really helps juice that QPF up….prob a lot of members with a full blown CCB into eastern SNE …and not just swing negative, but allow it to gain some latitude while it does
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