ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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I feel like AI has opened up a new playbook for you. We will remember the photoshop days fondly though.
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Still pretty skeptical on real sleet getting north of the south coast….not talking about dryslot pellets/snow grains that ends up irrelevant to the snow totals. But actual legit pounding sleet. But we’ll see if we get a bump north between now and go time…if so, then maybe real sleet sneaks into places like PYM over to EWB and maybe even TAN-GHG.
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Reggie looks about the same through 33 hours...maybe a smidge suppressed compared to 12z.
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I've seen it plenty of times this far out....it's rarely too warm inside of like 36 hours.
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Def could be....tracks it just about over ACK which is def north of most guidance. NAM is still in that 54-60 hour range for the meat of the storm, so you'd want to see a few more cycles of that.
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Euro maybe ticked a smidge SE. Not large changes though.
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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
ORH_wxman replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
2 feet is pretty damned rare up here….even 20-burger only happened about a dozen times in ORH. But keeping in the spirit of the discussion, Feb ‘58 is prob the only other one I can think of. Not sure if Mar 1960 got decent snow into ATL but it def did in the Carolinas. -
Only had to wait 4 years for SE MA to reclaim the jackpot capital of the region.
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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
ORH_wxman replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
ORH_wxman replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
We’re getting a pseudo El Niño pattern in a Niña February. That is so weird to see on all the guidance. -
What a crush job for Scooter that run.
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I doubt this storm will have those types of crazy snowfall gradients. There will obviously be some enhanced areas but prob more like someone getting 19” or 20” versus 15” instead of 25-burgers 10 miles away from a foot. The massive thump should be relatively uniform 10-15” and then anything on top of that will probably be Monday onshore flow stuff.
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You’re in a great spot. Both for CF enhancement during the WAA thump and then for onshore flow on Monday.
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Yeah I think 10 to 1 will definitely be too low to use in this storm unless you end up getting a prolonged period of sleet (seems unlikely for 95% of this forum) I’d prob go about 14 to 1 for the storm average. There’s gonna be a bit of wind too…not a lot but enough to prob keep us from stacking perfect dendrites.
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Prob 2” QPF on south shore if you allowed it to go another panel
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NAM is gonna be good for Monday
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Def a bit more confluence so far. But it was pretty jacked at 06z so not totally surprising.
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Most is going to fall between about 4pm Sunday and 2am Monday. That’s 1-2” per hour stuff.
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06z euro QPF for moneypitmike
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Yeah I’d feel good with 12-18 forecast but not good about brushing 18”+ over anyone. I do think the south shore and Cape Ann have a pretty decent shot though with the extra OES enhancement. Still uncertain about how efficient monday is….on one hand, we’re synoptically dryslotted, but OTOH, you are literally in the DGZ sfc-700mb so it might not matter that much if you can generate some steady light precip…you could stack another 4-6” with maybe a quarter inch of QPF.
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Congrats Scooter on 2 feet on the Ukie
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Yeah I think your first guess is pretty good.
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It’s clearly using some sort of ratio formula in addition to the QPF since that’s way more than 10 to 1 model consensus would imply.
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Yes. I think some of these maps are on the aggressive side at the moment. Not that 20”+ is implausible here, but I think we’d need some things to go right for that to happen based on current guidance.
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I don’t think we’ll see a 00z icon solution again. But we could see light precip on easterly flow overperform with high ratios. We’ll have a better idea of if that happens once we get inside 48h
