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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Last chance will be that stuff coming down from near ART and Lake Ontario. Some guidance kind of blows it up for a good 3 hour burst….I’m remaining skeptical but if it happens then we could pick up a quick inch or two.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Gonna be like a -4 or -5 December with little snow to show for it.
  3. ORH_wxman
    ‘92-93 went from a top 5 season to pretty mediocre quite quickly once you got into central CT and southwest. It was actually below normal for snowfall once you got to NYC. Pretty amazing season though for BOS-ORH corridor and northward into your hood.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Actually has a rare true flash freeze event during a rain to snowstorm on that solution. Doubt it verifies but every once in a while it happens.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Not optimistic. There’s an area of forcing knifing SE that is supposed to blossom Some snow for eastern areas later on this evening…that’s what could give a quick burst of actual half-decent rates. But it could also stay too far northeast. The dying WAA tries to rejuvenate some weaker echoes this afternoon but I am not counting on anything from that. For far eastern MA, they might try and sneak a piece of the IVT tomorrow….but that is low probability.
  6. ORH_wxman
    We had about 12” in the 2/4/95 storm and then I think the next biggest storm all winter was maybe 2” or 3”. It was close to being historically awful if it weren’t for that one Storm.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Euro is pretty nice for far SW CT for Saturday. Rest of SNE is light snow that is probably getting shredded…prob 1-2” type deal.
  8. ORH_wxman
    You need about 1.5-2” and you’ll be good. Any coatings will melt/sublimate.
  9. ORH_wxman
    He's been in probably the worst spot in the entire region since Feb 2022. So I get it....at least the rest of us had at least a few decent events, but his area down toward Tblizz has been really bad. ORH might have been the worst spot relative to climo from 1988-1992.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Dude, I went 4 years without a double digit event in ORH.....think about that for a second and take into account the climo and location.
  11. ORH_wxman
    It's pretty good for CT, esp SW half....not good for E MA.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Now you are really living the ‘80s ….last winter was a small preview since it wasn’t a torch. But so far this year we’ve got well below normal temps and you get to watch the mid-Atlantic snow and then we rain on the next system and then rinse/repeat. That’s almost exactly how it went. Wasn’t that bad of a decade roughly Philly-southward.
  13. ORH_wxman
    I actually cant believe how cold the post-Xmas period is going to verify versus what models showed several days to a week ago....somehow, we still can't snow very much.
  14. ORH_wxman
    The stuff in upstate NY diving SE is what most of us in SNE want to watch for later. The BGM to SW CT stuff is just going to keep fizzling...the forcing for later comes from the upstate NY batch....whether that's enough for a couple inches or not is the question
  15. ORH_wxman
    3k NAM being pretty healthy too gives some hope though that the 12k isn’t on crack. Both NAMs show the initial WAA dying out midday east of ORH, but it regenerates a very healthy precip shield as the forcing from the northwest (that gives NNE most of their snow outside the norlun) punches in. So if they are right, we’d see a lot of blossoming precip on radar this afternoon. Esp after about 2-3pm.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Not sold yet though. Hrrr still hideous. Rap still hideous.
  17. ORH_wxman
    12z NAM came in decently healthier for this afternoon.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Might be C-1” inside of 128. Even here could struggle for an inch but that depends on if we get some better enhancement in the evening for about 2-3 hours. Won’t surprise me though if we get skunked given the last few years.
  19. ORH_wxman
    NAM being so dry is starting to be a little bit of a red flag I don’t think I’d change anything though over interior. Still prob 1-3”. Maybe if GFS and Euro jump ship.
  20. ORH_wxman
    BL gets kind of marginal down there. Prob flakes but could be white rain for a while. If you had some decent omega punching into the snow growth region, then it would prob rip. But this is a pretty weak system.
  21. ORH_wxman
    He’s so close to water which may be an issue for a time until winds go more N or NW. Light snow and 33-34 might struggle.
  22. ORH_wxman
    That was a very cold run. Very few torches. 12/28 gets messy with ice/rain but not warm at all. That Atlantic blocking just dominates for 10 days.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Euro a couple runs in a row trying to show a little enhancement in E MA tomorrow evening…maybe someone can crack 3” if that happened. Prob in the 128 belt to maybe 495..esp N of pike. Then there’s still the OES sig as the IVT rotates S and veers the winds back N for a time which puts the Cape into a decent spot.
  24. ORH_wxman
    There are still a significant number of ensemble members on both GEFS and EPS that hammer southern New England. Lot of spread. Honestly, anything is kind of gravy from that system as 2 days ago it looked like a rainstorm except way up in far NNE.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Yeah it doesn’t happen too often but this is admittedly a weird setup. We want to see ensembles tighten before really getting a good handle. The mean still has decent precip up into NNE so there’s a lot to spread.
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