ORH_wxman

I still think next week could produce…but that’s getting into clown range.

The clipper looks more paltry now. Could come back more as a redeveloper but last night’s guidance didn’t like it. You’ll want to see improvements over the next day or so if we want anything more than coatings to an inch.

If it’s top-down (they usually are but not always), a February disruption usually takes about 3-4 weeks to affect the troposphere. If it’s bottom-up, then the troposphere is actually affected first.

Yeah there is actually a strat vortex split that occurs in early February in pretty much all guidance.

EPS likes 2/7 and then again a week later in the 2/13-14 timeframe. We’ll see if we can get a stronger signal as we get closer.

On days with bright sun and relatively fresh snow pack, a lot of PWSs will prob run a couple degrees higher than ASOS. Within 1 mile of here, there are PWSs that read 19-20F. But some read 25-26F…the latter are absolutely contaminated by solar glare.

Official NWS obs can come from ASOS too. All the ASOS sites are “Official nws obs” since they are maintained jointly by NWS and FAA. It’s just ASOS-only sites won’t give snow depth.

Most airports don’t do snow depth anymore. Consequence of getting rid of full time weather observers and going to ASOS in the 1990s. Airports that still have an observer on site will have snow depth. Guess BDL has one again. For a long time they didn’t.

Yeah….We can’t match the obscenity of the mid-50s through late 70s….but this is pretty solid for post-1980…think this is the 9th coldest start to winter for ORH since then and it should continue to climb the rankings if the models have any idea over the next couple weeks.

We haven’t really had those -25 or -30 departure type days thst really throw an exclamation point on a cold outbreak. It’s been a slow burn of -10 to -20 departure days during these cold streaks. Same exact thing can be said about that warm streak mid month…it was just a bunch of +10 to +15 days strung together so it never “felt” like we had a high end torch. We weren’t getting that signature +25 to +30 day or two at the height of it like we usually do.

Coldest start to winter thus far through 1/30 at ORH since 2003-04. We will prob pass that season as colder over the next couple weeks as Feb 2004 warmed up. On the flip side, 2014-15 will be gaining ground in February.

-16 at OWD. Lol. What a swamp there.

There’s some moderate interest in the ensembles redeveloping the clipper next weekend into a miller B.

Best chance is next weekend. Anything before that looks tough.

ORH did indeed tie the record low max of 10F in 1934. Kind of a weak vulnerable record but tied nonetheless.

Don’t forget Leo too. Also in NS.

5-6” at your parents and Virga curtains for you

Can we get 50-75 miles in 2 days? Prob not in this setup. But 25 miles would huge for cape and adjacent south shore

ORH daily record low max was 10F in 1934 for this date. We have to wait and see if they tied it or not. Their hourly max was 10F but they may have spiked between obs. They already set a record low max on 1/25…it was vulnerable so 10F high on 1/25 was able to do it. Usually you need low to mid single digits for a lot of the days in January.

Yep I’m ok with a signature arctic blast. We haven’t really had a true record-setting one. We have had some pretty high end airmasses but not that last tier above…the kind where you have -8 to -10 or so at the non-radiators. Reminds me a little of the Jan/Feb 2003 stretch…just very consistent arctic airmasses that churn out big negative departures but no absolute monster cold. Also, once you have a deep pack, you will tolerate the 3-5” storms more too…I’d take a few clippers to refresh things, but we all obviously want another big storm on top. P

Nobody will be happy because they all know there’s a chance to get those epic snow packs…30”+ type stuff…given the pattern shown. No torches to be seen so any snow that falls can keep stacking on top of previous snow. That’s what everyone is chasing now.

Yes most likely. It was a ridiculous airmass.

Super Bowl weekend.

GFS was trying to pull a Feb 2013 for a second....ends up just being a more regular Miller B....but that northern stream almost caught up with the southern s/w

ORH back then was a coop so it kind of sucks....the hourly airport obs didnt start until 1947 I don't think and it didn't go official until 1948.