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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    For now we sell, but it’s silly to completely ignore. There’s enough guidance that shows exceptional rates and the dynamical support aloft. We’ll see today if more guidance trends toward that or toward more mundane.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Agree with what? Caution flags there? Yeah I would. Even here I still have caution flags…I think we’re looking pretty good for warning snows, but there’s a big difference between 6-8” and 18”. I think for places like ORH up to Hubbdave, it’s time to chuck ‘em, but south and east still have more questions to iron out.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Id prob weight the NAM like 10% right now. It gets more weight once we’re down to about 36h.
  4. ORH_wxman
    There’s potential in his hood for epic blizzard conditions. But there’s a lot of temp issues too to overcome there.
  5. ORH_wxman
    We had exceptional damage here in the Mar 7-8, 2018 storm which was like a foot of grease. So it’s definitely going to a problem with power issues if we get even 8-12”
  6. ORH_wxman
    When I looped h5 on the 06z euro, I def expected heavier QPF than what it showed. But it was a step down from 00z. It’s going to be a significant storm, but the difference between a HECS type blizzard and a fairly heavy late season snow event (but nothing earth shattering) is going to come down to if we have those truly exceptional rates for hours on end.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Yeah that was kind of weak sauce. I think there needed to be more southern stream. But who knows. It just didn’t want to pop that low to another level like most other guidance.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Can’t believe it’s been 3 decades since that storm.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Yeah there are some similarities aloft. But Feb 2013 had a monster high to the north and this one doesn’t.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Also going to get a death band as the fronto prob goes nuts while it’s moving NNW
  11. ORH_wxman
    Lot of seaward members on EPS taking a wide turn. But they do start consolidating closer to the cape on the next couple frames.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Yes once you see those 925s collapse in the CCB, the profile gets easily cold enough for snow at least away from the water. I do think places in CT that are getting a lot of WCB precip prior to the CCB need to look at the soundings very carefully.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Not super similar but some of the variables are…Dec ‘92 had a strong ULL diving down through VA and this one comes in further north but due to the eastern southern stream low, we end up with an easterly flow for a time that is somewhat similar. Dec ‘92 had a potent high pressure up north too which while not very cold, it really increased the pressure gradient and helped cause the huge winds (90+ mph gusts on the exposed shore) Airmass was pretty marginal in Dec ‘92 as well
  14. ORH_wxman
    Tomorrow technically since we don’t turn clocks forward until 2am
  15. ORH_wxman
    Still ends up getting you eventually. Lol. But yeah, guidance has to figure this crap out with the phasing.
  16. ORH_wxman
    GFS has a stronger primary this run. IVT will be an issue this solution.
  17. ORH_wxman
    18z Icon still has a dual low with the western one going into ginxys hood. No good for most of SNE.
  18. ORH_wxman
    There’s a reason we call them clown maps. They are fun to look at but they aren’t reality. They can be ok in uniform storms with a cold thermal profile but otherwise you need to really look at soundings and midlevels.
  19. ORH_wxman
    10 to 1 is April 97 for ORH.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Upper cape and then drifts east
  21. ORH_wxman
    Reggie is annihilation over interior SNE.
  22. ORH_wxman
    And Tblizz whining his way to another 30 burger.
  23. ORH_wxman
    I did too…but nuances are gonna be a pain in the ass to deal with on this storm.
  24. ORH_wxman
    That wasn’t the NAM, it was an experimental run from Scooters basement that accidentally got uploaded onto ncep servers.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Seeing the ensemble clusters made me feel somewhat better. OP is def on the northwestern 10% of those members. I also like how the trend on the EPS was to rotate it back ESE a bit faster. They really aren’t gaining much latitude north of CHH now. Thats not only good for limiting some of the warming, but it keeps much if area under favorable midlevel dynamics longer.
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