ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Solid warning event next weekend on GGEM for a lot of SNE. Gonna see a lot of solutions on this.
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Canadian might be good for weekend.
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Stein on both events.
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It wasn’t even really worth a response. That’s his schtick. Say something very negative but with extreme confidence.
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Yeah we need a pretty aggressive phase to get this north given how far east this is when phasing can occur. Pretty unlikely for most of us but south coast should def still watch this.
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Even in the tropics of SE MA this is kind of ridiculous to say on Feb 14th when the pattern doesn’t even look all that mild going forward.
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Not enough this run. Tickles the south coast. Maybe an inch or two for SW CT.
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NAM looks a lot more phased through 36h
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06z runs did look a bit colder again for late week. It’s like 00z all saw something to go warmer and then ticked it back a bit at 06z. Still need to wait and see on that.
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I wonder which obscure model will have the storm on the 00z runs. This is worse than the late January storm tease. At least that one had some huge OP euro solutions inside 100 hours.
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The funny part about @ineedsnow still tracking the 2/16 storm is that his location is probably one of the least likely to see anything from it in SNE. I love the dedication though.
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Any OP solution that far out is for the glue factory. Ensembles do show some weak signal for a warm spell around that time, but ensembles this winter have been almost perpetually showing warm spells in clown range that haven't really verified....so we wait.
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Gotta go out further....it's in clown range but the OP tried to get us to 70F around 2/26 or so.
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Big boy Scooter high in Quebec for the late week system....if we can get enough dPVA to curl into that monster, we'd have a nice high-QPF SWFE.....but if you keep things too sheared, might be kind of weak. GFS was attenuating quickly...so it starts off decent and weakens....but having a little crunched isn't the worst thing a week out.
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GFS pretty snowy next week. Looks a lot like Euro right now.
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This is how the average snow weenie pictures every winter
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People have to remember that 90% of the forum cares about snow. Nobody is going to get excited for a high of 24 and a low of 5F in late February if there’s no snow with it. They’ll gladly take a high of 35-40F if it means a better shot at snow a few days later. Nobody remembers March 2018 or March 2017 for “slowly melting”, they remember them for the huge snow events and deep pack that dominated those months.
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Euro Skynet was pretty good too. A lot of snow events/threats.
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Next week looks pretty good imho. That first system is the weaker of the two and it’s prob also the warmest but it could still snow right down into most of SNE…second one looks a bit colder. Really good arctic airmass lurking north and most guidance wants to advect a slice of that in here ahead of of the Friday system.
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I think you’d be surprised how bad NNE did in the 1980s too. Esp the latter half. Lot of stein up there. Early 80s we’re great there.
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Yeah it was just after lunch. Prob between 1-2pm. IIRC ORH went from nothing to heavy snow inside 30 min and it stayed heavy snow on official ASOS for like 10-12 hours straight. Just a massive 10-12 hour crush job and then it was over. There wasn’t a ton of snow between that storm and the Mar 4-6, 2001 storm…but it mostly stayed OTG. Then March went gangbusters.
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‘81-82 was an excellent winter…one of the few good ones that decade. Very cold that winter with a lot of good events culminating in the April ‘82 blizzard. The problem with the 1980s is they had so few blockbuster storms…esp post-1984. We have a few biggies in 1987 (esp interior) but that’s about it. Then you mix in some absolute garbage snow winters overall like ‘84-85, ‘85-86, ‘88-89 and the decade averages out quite poor.
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Feb 5, 2001 was an incredible storm for its intense snowfall rates. Almost all of that fell in under 12 hours.
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The 1980s are pretty cold on that graph. The defining feature is really no huge torches of any kind outside of the super Nino ‘82-83 winter. So while they didn’t have utterly frigid winters post-82, they consistently were below normal on temps.
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Despite the 16th being useless, there definitely seems to be a pretty active look going forward. We may play with fire, but lots of chances and lots of cold lurking north next week and beyond.
