ORH_wxman

Weenie flakes here.

This won’t have near the duration of ‘78 either.

MAUL means “Moist Absolutely Unstable Layer”….it is usually an area of steep lapse rates aloft that can enhance upward lift (like in a thunderstorm)….its why Scooter was joking about an EML getting advected in aloft. When you see that, it increases the chances of thundersnow and very heavy rates.

GFS did its job. Gave us 7 great innings, but it’s gassed now. Bullpen (mesos) can bring this one home.

That 3k NAM was ridiculous. Not a whole lot left to analyze.

Dude’s been chasing thundersnow for 30 years now, lol….i still remember his first one in ORH in Dec 1996.

Interior SE MA is my vegas bet for the jackpot but can’t rule out either upper cape or maybe further northeast on the coast near Scooter….upper cape is warmer but if they get more prolonged convective snows than elsewhere, it might not matter.

South shore anywhere from very upper cape to interior SE MA is def gonna be the regional jackpot. There will be another smaller jackpot out further northwest where the pivot point is…don’t know exactly where yet.

Maybe 4-8” and lots of wind.

Yep…5-8am…maybe as early as 4am for far SE MA…is when the convective stuff rips into eastern MA.

Imagine if you had a place to go that was going to get 3"+ of qpf and 70+ mph wins? That would be something We’re gonna be ribbing MPM for years if he buys a place in Mattapoisett and then misses a top 3-5 storm there all time.

That arc of convection getting entrained very early tomorrow over SE MA is gonna be crazy. That’s where we could see thundersnow and the rates getting over 3”+ per hour.

Looks a tick east of 06z early on. Though 06z was pretty crazy tucked down south.

You prob don’t want the rotting band if you’re in SE areas because you don’t want to miss the convection t being entrained into the CCB. They’ll be a relative jackpot west with wherever the band pivots but there will be another with the Firehose of convective snows hitting SE areas…they’ll get their own bands taking their time to leave later in the storm too, but the stuff very early tomorrow morning could be epic there.

It’s a definite possibility if we end up training convection into the CCB. Some of the models have that April ‘97 look with that feature.

Yeah it’s felt like a classic New England winter…which is really more typical of northern New England hill towns. But it’s nice when they happen down here too which we had been in a recent drought on them.

Lol yeah I didn’t get to respond in time. You get a pack fetish once it starts getting to those possible levels.

Nice fatties falling for the past 20 min. Driveway and walk coated back up.

I would not oppose retiring them at this point. At least in New England, they don’t have a lot of utility to a forecaster.

3k NAM sends like an April ‘97 arc of convection into that. That’s what obliterates SE MA

I agree with all of this as the transition started happening when I was still forecasting full time. The older SREF suite definitely seemed to handle east coast cyclogenesis better so they had a decent amount of utility in those types of storms. I remember they were hammering some of that banding in the Jan 2011 storm too and eventually most of the other guidance converged to them. I’ll also say they used to perform exceptionally in the SWFEs too. I used them constantly in the 2007-08 and 2008-09 winters with excellent results. Obviously the newer SREFs are superior to the older ones in many other areas, but it came at the expense of one of the more important types of event we forecast for in this part of the county.

Weenie flakes here. Won’t pick up additional accumulation but it’s been off and on all day.

yeah seems a little light. You want to include some realistic upper bound in there like 18-20”….obviously it could be higher too but at least go up to the 75% range.

That was ridiculous and one of the worst busts in recent memory. Though I’ll also say that those forecasts from OKX seemed a little crazy…I remember at the time we were all kind of wondering why so much faith in Euro…despite it being the best model. Lot of other mesos like the RGEM (which really nailed the death band) showed potential issues to the west. I don’t think any models showed 7” of snow there but some of them were more like 8-14” or so. Could’ve split the difference and went 1-2 feet and it wouldn’t have felt quite as bad.

Anyone SE of an ASH-HFD axis doesn’t have much to worry about unless youre being greedy and demand 2 feet.