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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    There’s a path to a great winter. Even December wasn’t bad. It was frustrating for sure because it felt like we left a lot on the table, but at the end of the day, it was cold in December with a lot of smaller snow events to add to the holiday feel and we had long stretches of snow cover. If we somehow can cash in on this final 10 days of January and then those weeklies are close to correct for February, all of the sudden you are looking at a big winter.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Here’s a few 5 day snapshots (from beginning to end of Feb)
  3. ORH_wxman
    It’s says parallel. Not AI. It’s basically just an upgrade to the OP if it passes the test phase.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Weeklies go full weenie for pretty much all of February. I’ll believe it when I see it but that was an impressive run today.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Growth really improved after about 830-9pm. Those 3 hours or so between 9-midnight we really stacked it up. Prob had at least 2/3rds of our accumulation during that stretch. I don’t think it ever snowed truly heavy for more than about 15 min at a time. But just very consistent efficient moderate snow with those heavier bursts mixed in which was stacking at 1-1.5” per hour.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Yep. A lot of times that IVT stuff is very fluffy on the back end of a storm. You cool the lower-midlevels enough so that that even the lower level lift below 800mb is in the DGZ. That was showing up all over the soundings yesterday and the night before.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Had to be sub -40C stuff on a Montreal express trajectory. The perfect storm of ingredients to get those types of numbers.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Only mid range OP model that did well was the Canadian. It pretty consistently was getting advisory type snowfalls across most of SNE/CNE.
  9. ORH_wxman
    The irony is, in the past few winters, how often did we NOT want a piece of the TPV to phase with a central/western trough but it would do it anyway? Now we want it…let’s hope it happens this time.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Regular EPS improved some too. Does get light snows into SNE for the mean, which likely means there are a few bigger hits and plenty of whiffs.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Yes it was. You’d go moderate to heavy for a few minutes and back to light and then rinse and repeat a few times.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Need that vort energy in Wisconsin/Iowa to phase a little more with the southwest stuff before it moves east. Started doing that this run but not enough except for very light stuff into SNE.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Tick tick tick on the OP Euro.
  14. ORH_wxman
    GEFS def came north a bit from 06z. There’s some hits in there now while 06z had almost unanimous whiffs. The risk is obviously suppression on this but it’s far from a done deal. PV is crazy cold with the press but it’s also moving NE with time and we don’t have quite the crazy exotic west based block like a Feb 2010…EPS is more bullish on the blocking which has kind of been a theme this winter
  15. ORH_wxman
    Next weekend is a great setup for Scooter down to @amarshall to get Coke line steamers from frigid onshore flow.
  16. ORH_wxman
    We def beat 10 to 1 ratios too. So I doubt there was a QPF bust. If I melted it down I’m guessing 4 tenths or maybe a bit more.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Looks like our nice IVT stuff is ending. Just some flurries out there now. 6.2 will do it I think for the storm total.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Ripping fatties here in this stuff.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Just over 6” here. Just measured
  20. ORH_wxman
    Nickels and quarters falling here. This is that good growth IVT stuff. Can get some sneaky additional accumulation.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I was looking at 06z which was pretty ugly. Obviously that doesn’t mean the threat is gone but it truly is basically AI and Ukie versus other guidance right now.
  22. ORH_wxman
    GEFS didn’t show anything for the overrunning setup. They were suppressed.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Eyeballing 6” here but will measure in a bit. What a scene. Coming down pretty good in this IVT stuff.
  24. ORH_wxman
    Band regenerating right over head.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Yeah at least everywhere had some success this weekend out of all the waves. CT and C/W MA really cashed in yesterday and today the eastern folks are overperforming relative to expectations 12 hours ago.
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