ORH_wxman

North Shore sometimes gets hot and it just snows there. Happened a lot in the 2013-14 winter. They had it coming after the recent brutal stretch there.

If we somehow reel this system back in to be a warning event in SNE, this winter will really start moving up the charts. It’s already been a damned good winter but we have a lot of snow climo left and you don’t want to waste those periods.

This still feels like classic bait…but Euro skynet suite showing some enthusiasm makes this a little more interesting. Still need other guidance to jump on board.

Sort of, but not in the way i meant it....it was frigid in 2015 but we stopped getting good snow events and the south coast and mid-atlantic actually got some in late Feb and March. But yeah, 2015 couldve been put into even further epic territory if we had scored anotehr big dog in March that year. I really meant years where it just basically melts off slowly in 40F weather with no reinforcements of significance.

It does almost every year....the question is are we going to keep the continuous winter train going or is the ride mostly over and then we're just mixing in stat padders in March/April. Could go either way....some years like this died a slow death in late Feb/early Mar (like 2011)....while others went gangbusters (2001)....some gave us faux spring and then went gangbusters back to winter afterward (2017 and 2018 both did this)

The question is if we can continue this slow pack build up or if we start getting some rainers mixed in.....I do think we'll definitely see additional snow events. But if we pseudo-cutter next week and have these seasonably milder days mixed in, then you start melting back the icy grip winter has had on us....whereas if we only do a little bit of maintenance melting, and then smash an arctic high in front of next week's system and turn into a beefy cold SWFE, then it feels like winter is still in full swing....two somewhat different paths that we aren't sure on yet.

Pretty much all guidance has something late next week. It’s just a question of whether we press a high down ahead of it for a winter event or if it’s a cutter or pseudo-cutter.

EPS wasn’t nearly as warm as OP in LR. Still pretty snowy in the 11-15 day.

GFS and euro flip flopped in the long range today.

Yeah this beats any 2018 stretch. The late Dec 2017/first 10 days of Jan 2018 was pretty awesome but didn’t have the pack this deep. March 2018 was pretty damned epic but it was a slow melt given time of year. Feb 2021 was a really nice stretch to your west but it doesn’t beat this. Def have to go back to 2015 to get a stretch this long with pack this deep and some decent cold to go with it.

Another north shore jack would be fitting too

Congrats

Yeah but it’s all blocked up. GFS def trending toward the Euro idea of blockier look.

GFS try to pull a mini-Feb ‘69 next Friday.

GFS skynet still way SE...not particularly close.

Downslope dandy today....might tickle 40.

Euro skynet was much closer but still a whiff. At least it was finally even half-interested. Well need a pretty solid move by all other guidance at 12z I think.

It’s interesting that we had good snow growth during the heaviest rates last night but in between it was kind of grainy. The snow overall felt a little dense shoveling this morning. Looks nice though. 1.6” storm total with a tenth new after 1.5 last night before going to bed.

North shore jacked again for SNE.

Skynet models still have no interest in the 16th

1.5”. We’ll see if we can get a little more from that stuff to the west. Pretty meh on storm total but the rates were really good for 2 brief spurts.

Should get decent rates there the next hour

Yeah these rates are fun. Not gonna last long but the convective cells didn’t disappoint on rates here.

Yeah def not in this heavier stuff. Lots of dimes and nickels.

Gotta get the salt off the cruiser somehow