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ORH_wxman

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    You know this storm is in bad shape when he’s not posting.
  2. ORH_wxman
    EPS
  3. ORH_wxman
    Still surprised the euro is crushing the cape.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Workable at this time range
  5. ORH_wxman
    The whole setup sucks...trough is so far east....GFS shifted west with the trough but the low still escapes with convection...we need a wholesale shift west in successive model cycles.
  6. ORH_wxman
    GFS Should be better than 06z but that isn't saying much.
  7. ORH_wxman
    To add onto this, because the trough is so far east, you need some exotic things to happen....which the Euro pulls off, but you are relying on something with very little wiggle room. This isn't like the SWFE last week where we could basically not care much about 50-75 mile shifts....even the very aggressive northward trend in the 36-48h range barely brought sleet to the south coast.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Just not enough room...the trough is too far east. When it was digging further west through W TN/AR and LA/MS, it had more room.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Slightly worse than 00z. You are still in the game but the rest of us are prob done
  10. ORH_wxman
    Yeah. I mean there’s a chance he’s right but it’s still very uncertain. You don’t want to overstate it to the public yet because then they will go wild too.
  11. ORH_wxman
    It was the 12z OP GFS on Christmas Eve. It was so outlandish that even the NCEP model diagnostic discussion tossed it! Lol.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Lol I saw it labeled as Feb 10th. I thought it was another storm in the pipeline so I got confused. But yeah if that is for Sunday’s storm, that max band at H7 is prob your western death band.
  13. ORH_wxman
    When did 18z run to 300+ hours? Is that new?
  14. ORH_wxman
    I’m actually somewhat shocked at how bad the response to this storm has been. None of the storms like Feb 2021 or Jan 2022 or the 2018 storms caused this type of disruption. This area got really soft the last 2-3 years.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Given the bullishness of the ensembles, it seems plenty of members are slingshotting it in some fashion…even if not the exact same track. Im still somewhat of a skeptic on this being big, but I think the path to a big event is ripping that dumbbell low NNW around the H5 low….Is feel better to start things a little further west.
  16. ORH_wxman
    That looks quite a bit more favorable than 12z. A lot more runs that are dumping 1”+ of QPF around Boston and even metrowest. There’s obviously still plenty of scrapers and whiffs. I’m not sold yet but 18z Euro suite was def good.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Usually the convective lows are correct when a bunch of higher skill guidance is showing them. So this is the way to get crushed…have it get sling shotted around to the north and blast us.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Wow what a crush job for eastern folks….top 5-7 storm for Cape
  19. ORH_wxman
    The issue is the trend. We need the trend to stop and reverse. It still can but if it merely stops and doesn’t reverse, it’s prob a scraper with almost nothing for western areas.
  20. ORH_wxman
    00z is last stand I think...we need a trend back west at 00z or we can punt this one I think. This is the type of threat that 2 or 3 east trends in a row is fatal.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Looks like both skynet GFS and OP GFS are going to put an end to that....both models look east of 12z.
  22. ORH_wxman
    GFS skynet is gonna be east again
  23. ORH_wxman
    We cant compare 84h on the 18z to 12z since it doesn't go beyond 84...but you are correct that 78h on the 18z run was north of the 12z run but it was also east...so I think in the end it wouldn't end up as good, but probably still a hit. Anyways, not really relevant anyway given the model itself isn't that useful beyond 48.
  24. ORH_wxman
    RGEM went east of 12z....but I thought 12z looked pretty amped. The ridge out west is better though, so we may be able to slingshot it north.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Those are 00z model runs
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