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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    We cant compare 84h on the 18z to 12z since it doesn't go beyond 84...but you are correct that 78h on the 18z run was north of the 12z run but it was also east...so I think in the end it wouldn't end up as good, but probably still a hit. Anyways, not really relevant anyway given the model itself isn't that useful beyond 48.
  2. ORH_wxman
    RGEM went east of 12z....but I thought 12z looked pretty amped. The ridge out west is better though, so we may be able to slingshot it north.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Those are 00z model runs
  4. ORH_wxman
    Just keep amplifying that western ridge...lets drop the kicker s/w like due south so our storm fujiwaras around it...almost like Jan 27, 2015.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Gonna need this thing to dig further west. 12z trends were the opposite. Still in the game but can’t afford any additional trending east
  6. ORH_wxman
    Back then we prob had storms over the Flemish cap at day 4 that ended up crushing us.
  7. ORH_wxman
    That month was so bad in SNE....very little snow and just brutal cold...I think it was a top 5 coldest March....the one big storm ended up being mostly rain for us while it buried NNE...I think we got a consolation of a few inches of fluff at the end which sublimated within 2 days. Then the knock-out punch was the Cape blizzard which teased us for days. What an epic stretch in NNE though...I went to Sunday River on the 21st-23rd that month and they had natural snow depth in town of around 40-45"
  8. ORH_wxman
    Lol, they are warmer than DCA right now. We toss.
  9. ORH_wxman
    It is also a low probability to even have a major threat less than a week after a biggie. But here we are....whether it hits or not.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Ukie is a whiff again, but slightly better aloft.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Late surge this run NW
  12. ORH_wxman
    OP GFS gonna be east too.
  13. ORH_wxman
    RGEM looked pretty good at 84...
  14. ORH_wxman
    NAM would prob still get eastern areas I think…but I’m not gonna spend more than about 30 seconds extrapolating the 84h NAM.
  15. ORH_wxman
    No the storm could still track closer but it’s not going to be via that route. It would likely be pulled almost due north on a closer track…we could track it from east of HSE up near the BM and that would probably spread decent snows back to the valley.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Yeah…i mean I’d love for that low to track from interior NC to inside the BM, lol…but that’s not happening in this setup.
  17. ORH_wxman
    I remember when he saw no shadow in 2013…I think we had like 75” of snow after that point. The smart pick though is for him to see his shadow. He sees it most years.
  18. ORH_wxman
    That’s not the actual low track…not sure why it’s depicted that way. The low actually starts off the coast of Savannah (after a weak vestige near FL panhandle 12 hours earlier) It’s not over interior NC and moving northeast.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Half of the MBTA trains stopped working that winter. It was a disaster commuting on the train into Boston. I had my office in the seaport that winter. Seaport was prob ground zero though, lol. I remember that one mesoscale event in mid-February (not the 2/15 storm) where there was this very narrow band of snow hugging the coast. Like back bay was sunny I think and when we got to south station, it was almost a whiteout. They had like 3-4” of feathers on the seaport.
  20. ORH_wxman
    CFS? Lol. Surprised Ant didn’t pull out the Korean.
  21. ORH_wxman
    AI hasn’t been as consistent as last couple threats. They kind of locked in pretty early on those. Sometimes they’ve shown a hit in this and other times it’s a cape scraper.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Well if we only looked at GEFS and EPS, we’d predict a big hit for eastern areas.
  23. ORH_wxman
    March 1960 was pretty widespread but didn’t get quite as far south with the snow.
  24. ORH_wxman
    It’s the 84h NAM but that would likely extrapolate to a hit on some level.
  25. ORH_wxman
    In my defense, my guess was correct. It was hidden down in the memory hole but not quite deep enough.
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