ORH_wxman

Yep. Clinch Leatherwood was notable…he was the original Messenger on WWBB. RIP…we lost him in 2015 but his legacy lives in everytime we mention the Messenger Shuffle. I also recognize so many names that just drifted off the board over the years but were pretty consistent posters on here.

@The 4 Seasons

I think the window will be about 10-12 days. Well see if the pattern wants to try for an early April bomb too, but I think starting about the 16th is when that final period of favorability starts. I agree that the cold won’t feel that bad. There’s going to be some mild days mixed in when one of those systems cuts west.

We all know you’re losing it…the only question is whether it gets down into this area too.

All sun areas will be completely nuked but we’ll have areas that get mostly shade that are prob still totally covered I’m guessing.

Well yeah, it was pretty cold this winter. Top 15 at ORH airport since 1948. So that by definition means it’s not really “normal”…and in the context of post-2020, it’s obviously a shock to the system. But those warmest 2020-2024 torch winters weren’t remotely normal either even in the modern context. It was like Virginia climo. But we had back to back furnaces so I think a lot of people got over their skis in the other direction in terms of expectations.

I’m pretty sure nobody is expecting to be multiple degrees below the 1951-1980 climate baseline going forward.

Hopefully Euro skynet has the right idea for the 16th.

Super Nino would obvioisly be warm but if it’s regular mod/strong, I’m not too concerned. We can rock in those. Those previous winters before last year were like Virginia climo. They aren’t normal.

That 2010 storm before Xmas was actually a retrograde job. Backed in from almost the E or ENE. Got us a white Xmas in ORH. Cape got croaked but we had something like 2” or so.

Maybe. Previous few winters prior to last year were pretty damned warm. Those aren’t normal…like at all. This one wasn’t normal either but the interior averages between 55-80 days of snow cover per season so my expectations aren’t snow and then immediately torching it away. The pack longevity was definitely way more anomalous on the coast and esp south shore/Cape, so I’ll grant that.

54" that month and they "only" recorded 15" for 3/6-7/01....that could easily have been double that amount for a 70 burger month.

The squalls on New Years were crazy too...had like 3" from that event with over 2" from the squalls alone.

We also had a white Xmas west of 128....12/26 wasnt bad here either, about 4-4.5"

Wednesday is gonna turn into a winter wx event if we're not careful

The 3/30 event was crazy. The gradient was even tighter than your map shows…lack of data doesn’t help. It was like 3” at ORH airport and 6-8” by the time you were in Holden center. Then by the time you got to WaWa easily a foot-plus. Some of the N ORH county towns saw their highest depths all winter after that storm. 40”+ that month. I don’t remember a lot about the 3/26-27 storm. There was another nuke on 3/22-23 but it was barely too warm in most of interior SNE but up into interior NNE they got destroyed at elevation with a lot of snow.

That was the 1/18-19 storm. Hopefully we can grab one more decent sized event. (Like a warning event) Would be a nice finish to the cold season.

Everything is too far west initially…almost looks like some of the garbage western trough patterns we had in recent winters…but I think once we get to the 16th or so we’ll have a few chances as the mean trough moves pretty close to us over the apps.

Feels like we slightly underperformed on lift/QPF too. Ended up closer to the more flaccid guidance. Those big solutions down here were ripping an inch and quarter of QPF easy in the pike corridor

Might happen for Wednesday. But we should torch for a few days before that.

Yep. Decent western ridge progged and some good cold to tap into. Hopefully the synoptic pieces line up as we get closer but the longwave pattern will want to give us a couple chances I’d think. 11-15 is actually reasonably snowy. Esp northern half of New England but I think everyone is fair game.

Everything iced. A little sleet here but not much.

There should be a few hour period of pretty damned strong lift ahead of that sharp height fall/dryslot. That should start reaching us within an hour or so…sooner out west. If Ray’s area can flip to snow pretty quickly during that, then def several inches is on the table. But if it stays very mixy…

Lower atmosphere is prob loaded with salt nuclei with this ENE flow. When you have a higher concentration, they can form ice crystals as warm as like -4C or -5C. So that crappy needles are prob a sign it’s right near the threshold in the cold layer.

Yeah imagine that falling on top of the snow in those pics I posted above. It’s why I still have March 2001 as the king of snow pack in all my winters. Feb 2015 was super impressive but it did not have the amount of water the 2001 pack had at its peak.