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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Here’s EPS….doesnt really capture all of it though since it’s longer than 24h
  2. ORH_wxman
    Way better look at h5 though with significant phasing out west. It kind of squirts just a little east at the end but it’s a much higher end look a couple panels before that.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Yeah it’s clown range NAM but that looked pretty ominous with all that energy coming together out west. This is one of those rare times we’re rooting for more phasing out west.
  4. ORH_wxman
    That’s gonna be a tough pill to swallow if he gets 9” and ASH is putting up a 10 burger.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Maybe we can organize one for later this week if the threat keeps escalating….once we’re in NAM range. Start the show at 9-930 and go for a couple hours.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Yep. Last one I did I think was Jan 2016. I’m not sure we’ve had one since then. Usually had to be Mid-Atlantic big time threat and we haven’t had a huge one since then. I always thought we should do New England ones but not that we’ve had much to track the last few years.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Wes Junker would come on too. I think RaleighWx came on once or twice too.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Yeah it’s capturing the sfc at 144 and redeveloping significant precip over New England. Even into NNE
  9. ORH_wxman
    I was really hoping for BUF@NE in the AFCCG.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Euro skynet ticked north again too
  11. ORH_wxman
    18z GEFS…solid bump
  12. ORH_wxman
    We'll need good northern stream involvement with that late phase-in of extra energy to get blizzard into the equation (kind of like what CMC shows)....otherwise I'm not seeing the wind criteria. We need to get that sfc low a lot closer to tighten the pressure gradient.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Now there are zero OP models that cleanly whiff SNE. 18z GFS is still kind of a cruddy solution that would prob be about 1-3" of arctic sand (except for the coke streamers on the south shore and Cape Ann), but it's a pretty hefty bump north.
  14. ORH_wxman
    I"m not sure why they don't adjust it....they have the ability to manually augment the precip if they think under catching is occurring. I agree those are definitely incorrect precip totals.
  15. ORH_wxman
    High stakes too...tons of moisture to work with in this one combined with the frigid cold dome which acts as a force for wringing out all the moisture. We want to get this one to keep inching north....you don't get systems like these very often.
  16. ORH_wxman
    There is definitely a lot more upside than low end warning totals in SNE. You phase in a little more energy and try to get that secondary cranking a bit more, and you could make it a pretty prolific storm.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Or we sand? Cold doesn't automatically equal awesome ratios. We'll prob get good ratios as long as deeper lift gets into our area, but if we are pseudo-fringed, then it could be arctic sand.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Pretty solid bump north on EPS too.
  19. ORH_wxman
    The cold on these solutions is pretty insane. Euro has ORH in the single digits almost the entire storm.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Bottom line is the OP GFS is on an island and that is a good thing right now. Every other piece of medium range guidance has significant accumulating snow into SNE.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Yeah the euro gets N stream involved but not as deeply as some of the other solutions. It’s not quite as slow. It’s still enough for a solid SNE hit but it left some on the table. But it’s more than enough to work with at D5-6
  22. ORH_wxman
    GFS seems on its own right now.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Give the way that evolves, that would have a high ceiling. You don’t necessarily see it this run on the QPF output…it’s “merely” a 7-12/8-14 type event (toss kuchera weenie maps which go wild with frigid temps) but you could potentially juice that up more with how that whole upper air evolves.
  24. ORH_wxman
    Congrats on Coke streamers mixed in with the synoptic precip
  25. ORH_wxman
    Euro suite slowed down overnight which definitely helped getting the storm north. I think that’s definitely what we want, a bit slower evolution that still gets plenty of northern stream involved…but that delay will allow the TPV to lift northeast and ease some of the confluence over us.
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