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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Textbook Miller B
  2. ORH_wxman
    If we can keep onshore flow up to about 850-900 then I think we can tack on decent snows Monday/Monday night.
  3. ORH_wxman
    I think you’d want to see the trough open up more to get more of a norlun look. And the low would ideally be about our latitude but it might stay south and we stay with onshore flow.
  4. ORH_wxman
    That’s the storm the GGEM was trying to crank but ended up as just a scraper. GFS is robust this time around.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Yeah the NAM will be excellent for the midlevel warm nose once we’re inside a couple of days. It has to get the synoptics correct first which it usually takes until about 36-48h out.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Yeah i feel like any “issues” with ptype would be when the heavier stuff is gone…and that would also take a notable resumption of the northward trend which has mostly halted today. But if Mother Nature wants to try it, I’m here for it. It’s gonna be a steep cost in terms of dumping a ton of QPF as snow if we’re trying to get the mixing line up to the pike. My gut says that prob isn’t happening though with that airmass.
  7. ORH_wxman
    All that energy loading into the trough and nowhere to go except into a brick wall. That would prob go crazy Monday.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Nam is def pretty low with the heights to our northeast. I think the NAM would definitely go more coastal on Monday.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Dad laying the smack down.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Euro was very good for trying to squeeze out a few inches later Monday into Monday night. Keeps that low level circulation south of us.
  11. ORH_wxman
    One of the luxuries of having a crazy frigid antecedent airmass is small moves don’t really change anything all that much. We can handle some decent wiggle room with these temp profiles.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Ukie was juiced. Kept that onshore flow into Monday evening to add a few additional inches.
  13. ORH_wxman
    I’ve been thinking about dropping lurker status on Twitter (I have zero posts in my history) and just going Arnold in Commando on all the awful hypsters on there. I think 10-15 years ago I totally would but now it’s probably not worth taking up the time.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Super bomb. A lot of mets used super bomb as slang for a storm that dropped more than 2mb per hour for extended period of time.
  15. ORH_wxman
    I think you are thinking of 2/13/14….the 2/5/14 storm was much more of a SWFE with a latitude gradient south of SNE.
  16. ORH_wxman
    The DGZ is essentially from the sfc to 700mb on Monday so anything low level is gonna be quite efficient. The question is just how much lift can we generate in the low levels. Stronger onshore flow will certainly help as you push that marine boundary layer into the arctic dome…that alone will generate decent low level lift. But that’s why getting a decent secondary staying to our south as long as possible is key. Once it reaches our latitude, winds in the BL will be less and less onshore.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Lots of barking on 12z guidance so far about next weekend. Both GEM and GFS. GEM is trying for Thursday while GFS is Saturday.
  18. ORH_wxman
    I think you’ll need to tack on 6”+ after the initial overrunning thump to get 20” amounts. That’s possible but it requires some form of a CCB even if it’s mostly lower level…all that onshore flow from 850 and below. Guidance disagrees on the extent of that type of setup early Monday.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Prob a pretty decent call right now based on most guidance. You can almost broadbrush 10-16 across SNE. Maybe go slightly more conservative on the islands. There also might be a stripe of slightly higher amounts if there’s good OES enhancement and CF enhancement in a few spots, but I wouldn’t want to forecast explicitly over 16” for any one spot.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Heights have been showing up a bit lower in Quebec on the 12z runs so far. The stuff out west is still amped, so it’s actually a good combo for a lot of us because it runs into an even more stout brick wall than before which will increase QPF
  21. ORH_wxman
    RGEM looks a touch suppressed too with the heights to our north. Everything out west looks great though.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Maybe 1 in 3? I’d prob forecast 10-15” at the moment….
  23. ORH_wxman
    This reminds of the scene on the plane in the movie Con Air when Steve Buchemi’s character is commenting on another convict…he says, “That guy is so angry that moments of levity actually cause him pain, gives him headaches. Happiness for that man hurts.”
  24. ORH_wxman
    Slightly more confluence too so you’re gonna be absolutely slamming some big fronto.
  25. ORH_wxman
    What’s with the obsession with the mixing talk? In order to get mixing up into this airmass, you’re gonna charge Mother Nature a fee of about 10-15” of snow. It’s just gonna take so much forcing.
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