ORH_wxman

We’re down to about 10-11” here but the south facing sloped areas are now largely exposed. This pack had some meat in it. This has been a real furnace the last few days that it has taken to get to this point.

Yeah the second storm had a very tight snow gradient near 495. We had about 16” but once you went like 5-10 miles inside 495 it was mostly rain.

Cold, cutter, cold, cutter pattern...you can see how easily it would have been to get a good one in there. Still think we'll prob get at least another interior threat before the month is out. That PV doesn't really go anywhere...tries to retreat slightly but then drifts back south on ensembles.

I was spoiled in ORH for that 12 month period....had back to back nor' easters Dec 6-7, 1996 totaling 26", then 33.0" in the April .97 storm and then 18" in the Dec '97 positive bust. That was the end of the luck for a while though....brutal next 3 years until 2000-2001

A Super Nino would almost certainly suck....but I'll roll the dice any day with a mod/strong Nino as long as it's not east based.

Probably a few chances but so far nothing has gotten inside 7 days really.

I remember seeing the 40-50 dbz echoes on the doorstep and thinking it was definitely sleet. Then we got monster hooked-dendrite aggies pounding for a couple hours. We got 6” per hour in ORH at the peak. Not quite the 8” per hour stuff just northeast of us but pretty insane regardless.

I’m locking in 3/24 on euro.

Most of these systems were able to be found in PNS data if they were recent. For stuff prior to 1997 (which is when PNS data cutoff on the old BOX page), I'd generally use 2 day totals if I wasn't sure, but I did remember most of the late 80s to mid 1990s events so I'd know if they were separate ones (like December 6-7, 1996 for example). Most of the time, your numbers won't be affected if you solely used 2 day totals....you might get a rare instance like the Dec '96 example....but most of the time your bin won't change if it's adding a rogue few tenths from a snow shower...the only way it would matter is if it made a 5.8" storm into like a 6.1" or something like that....but even then, you aren't really going to be that far off the mark if you accidentally included a 5.8" event in the 6-11.9 bin. Most long duration events I already knew about too....late Feb 1969, Nov 10-12, 1987, Dec 20-22, 1975, etc.

I found ORH from our discussion above...I don't have BOS or BDL at my fingertips but I know it's somewhere. They follow the same general pattern but just lower frequencies. Frequency = # of events per winter

LOL....its like seeing the NAM before a SWFE hammering H75 with 2C.....you know you're screwed when it shows BDF/CAD too

First time seeing the firepit this evening since mid January.

So many skeptics on that event leading into it. Models didn’t handle it well at all but the underlying theme was dumping a lot of QPF. A lot of tv stations had like 2-4” or 3-6” for interior elevated areas and I couldn’t understand it. I was going like 8-14” and I was wau too light.

They are up a ton since those were published. I have a spreadsheet I did that goes I think through 2018 or 2019. I’ll post the frequencies when I’m back on my work laptop. I think I did them for BOS and BDL too. I think ORH averaged roughly one 12”+ per winter in the last 30 years or so. That basically doubles the previous frequency. To be fair, that 1992 cutoff is brutal in the old averages….youre including the 1980s and those early 1990s years in there without the benefit of having those big 1990s years in there.

Epic.

Pretty damned impressive run of double digit pack though. One of these years we’ll get a March 2001 or 2018 or 2013 on top of this type of pack…but it wasn’t meant to be this year. Early March melt-outs suck…too early to really take advantage of it unless it’s barely any pack like 2012.

impressive meltoff there. It’s impressive here too. The last 24 hours here has been crazy. Taken an absolute beating. We still have more work to do, but for the first time in eons, the grass is showing on the edges of the snow and we can see a lot of rocks popping up in the woods out back. I hadn’t seen these huge boulders since mid January.

Euro Skynet has been pretty weenie-ish for several runs now. Hopefully it has the right idea. EPS gives mild support for multiple systems between the 16th and 23rd but you’d want to see it more coherent as we get closer.

Yep. Clinch Leatherwood was notable…he was the original Messenger on WWBB. RIP…we lost him in 2015 but his legacy lives in everytime we mention the Messenger Shuffle. I also recognize so many names that just drifted off the board over the years but were pretty consistent posters on here.

@The 4 Seasons

I think the window will be about 10-12 days. Well see if the pattern wants to try for an early April bomb too, but I think starting about the 16th is when that final period of favorability starts. I agree that the cold won’t feel that bad. There’s going to be some mild days mixed in when one of those systems cuts west.

We all know you’re losing it…the only question is whether it gets down into this area too.

All sun areas will be completely nuked but we’ll have areas that get mostly shade that are prob still totally covered I’m guessing.

Well yeah, it was pretty cold this winter. Top 15 at ORH airport since 1948. So that by definition means it’s not really “normal”…and in the context of post-2020, it’s obviously a shock to the system. But those warmest 2020-2024 torch winters weren’t remotely normal either even in the modern context. It was like Virginia climo. But we had back to back furnaces so I think a lot of people got over their skis in the other direction in terms of expectations.

I’m pretty sure nobody is expecting to be multiple degrees below the 1951-1980 climate baseline going forward.