ORH_wxman

Before that pattern sets up there is a brief window for a good coastal. Prob between about 1/14-1/18 or so.

Pattern looks to be pretty favorable by mid-month now. Hopefully something pops ala 12z Euro today. Ensembles still showing a nice pattern out in the extended. There’s your +TNH pattern…basically -EPO and a near neutral to negative PNA.

Yes but it’s just prior to the WSR 88-D Doppler radars being installed. So you don’t get the banding detail like you would even a couple years later. Just search for that storm in YouTube and you’ll see a ton of weather channel clips that show the radar loops.

I think last year and this year are more closely 1980s. On the colder side but less snow. The 2020-2023 period was just us cosplaying Virginia winters.

Btw we had about 3 or 4 tenths here this morning. Just a minor refresher. Looks nice. Would be nice to get a bigger system. Tuesday might try to give a couple inches.

Might set the stage for Wed morning…been watching the potential for some nasty black ice and light freezing rain for that time due to some mesolow type stuff going on that starts on Tuesday and may go into Wednesday. .

Dec 5-7, 1981 was a big storm for eastern MA and RI. March 29, 1984 was big over interior SNE. A couple storms in Jan 1987 were quite good over interior as well…I believe both are in the Kocin book (Jan 22, 1987 and Jan 1-2, 1987 as a near-miss). Also don’t forget April 1982.

Funny too that a lot of 80s winters had pretty cold Decembers with light snowfalls. Then the season would shit the bed.

Icon also turns the 1/10 storm into a SWFE.

Yeah the cold has been pretty impressive too. Early season helps a lot with sun angle but ripping off like a -5 departure over 5 weeks doesn’t hurt either. That combo is great for trying to protect fairly thin snow packs. We’ve had snow OTG for so many days even though our total is a little BN to date. Your area has done a little better in the snow department because of 12/26 but still same general idea.

18z gfs def playing the mesolow game next Tuesday night/Wed morning. Joining some of the other guidance. This could make it kind of nasty from Ray’s area down through interior SNE with a bit of icing.

I’ve always said that a lot of the usual suspects will whine until we get a big hit. It doesn’t matter if the pattern looks identical to Feb 2013 or Jan 2011 or Feb 2015. They will scoff and whine unless the storm is on the doorstep. That’s just the way it works. But yeah, it’s a solid look. Details TBD. I’m actually keeping my eye on the 1/7 event which a lot of mesos are starting to show a lot of CAD and even a mesolow…could be some ice issues over interior, esp if a mesolow gets going (and some snow north of that into CNE…Rgem/Ggem has snow into SNE but likely too cold.)

Yeah there’s still a chance this warm sectors to Canadian border and we’re parakeets for a couple days. But the trend has def been to mute this and increase the CAD recently. I don’t think this debate matters that much in the scheme of things. It’s really just going to mean a number on the departure chart. I suppose it helps the ski areas to lessen the torch a bit. But for the majority, it doesn’t matter. It does seem to sweep past that pattern fairly quickly though. The wholesale PAC changes are inside D10 now.

Yeah south of pike is clean warm sectored with no precip on that run so there would be temps tickling 60+ if that happened. But there’s a boundary very close by…like near 40F around Ray’s area to near BOS.

Euro does try to get parakeets south of the pike next Saturday…near 60F. But it is for one day.

That 1/10 system is looking more and more CADish…this is prob gonna be weak sauce in terms of a thaw for NNE. Def above normal but I can see where people say this isn’t like the torches we dealt with 2020-2024

After lots of clippers and moose fart upslope events that drop coatings everywhere that isn’t on the mountain spine, a lot of us will roll the dice for some meatier events that carry a cutter risk. Esp going into heart of coldest climo.

I actually like the WAR location there. We had that frequently for a few years in the 2016-2018 timeframe which brought some storms back from the dead that were out to sea. The one worry is the epo ridge retrogrades west with time which can introduce more cutter potential.

I thinbk those are every 6 hours...but yeah, there's plenty of warmish days in there. 46 next week and some other 40s smattered around in there

The EPS would def be more favorable to us in the long range than the GEFS/GEPS. All 3 would offer plenty of chances with that look but the is more of a SE ridge flex on the GEFS/GEPS which we know the risks (and rewards) associated with that. I think the EPS would make it a little easier to sneak a coastal in there.

I always loved college football but I seem to mentally check out after new years. When they were making the BCS championship game on dates like Jan 4th or Jan 5th, they were still close enough for the wait. But now it’s NFL playoffs swallowing up the oxygen by the time they are playing for the national title now. And yeah…I’m sure it makes me sound like an old grouch.

They can prob put it in maroon….it’s almost certain we avg AN during that 7 day period (the map says nothing about magnitude though)

30s over the interior when many of us are at double digits so far? It’s not like we’re all sitting at 4” like some of these other years. I do worry about the Niña February but we’ll see about the second half of this month.

They should’ve never gone past 4. But I get that they want the ratings.

Not sure it was “great” anywhere. Maybe near CT south shore they best snowfall climo by a decent amount due to 12/26-27. But pretty much everywhere else was normal to BN on snowfall despite the cold temps. But I’ll give December a little bump up in grade because the little snow we got stayed on the ground much of the month and we snuck in a white Xmas too. So it was a nice holiday feel. But all that is now mostly useless to me after new years so we better start getting some meatier storms.