ORH_wxman

A lot of guidance has longitude component to the ptype over SNE. Scooter could be ripping while ALB is pelting or ZR.

It was awful in the medium range on 1/18-19 too. Skynet crushed it.

I think you need to look at a D5-6 system in the aggregate right now. Euro has consistently been the least amplified but it has overall come northwest over the last few cycles. The 06z run was more amped than this one but most of the previous runs were not. Other guidance continues to trend toward a pretty signficiant system. Also, both AI models have been bullish on this which has generally been a positive signal this winter. You have a solid Hudson Bay block but it’s not exceptionally strong. You also have a potent shortwave that is already fairly amplified out west of us and the block is the one thing stopping it from being too amped. Taking all of these factors together, I think this is in a pretty good spot right now. There’s no guarantees. For a D6 system, it has more support than we typically see.

Yeah I’m leaning low end advisory for the best stripe. Maybe someone lucks into 4-6” totals but I’d think those would be isolated if they happen at all.

Theme today has been further south and less QPF.

He’s obviously not serious.

I’m not overly worried about suppression. Can’t completely rule it out, but this is pretty amped as it crosses the Midwest. I’d rather see this a touch south right now like a lot of guidance has it.

Euro likes the pike region 15 miles either side.

Both gfs and Canadian have been hitting that system.

This is one is gaining legs very quickly across all guidance.

Tblizz grabbing a 20 burger after declaring winter over last week.

Not on the GFS solution it isn’t.

GFS skynet is now a little north of the OP on this one. It had previously been decently south of OP but now they are flipped.

It’s like a 30 mile wide band of moderate snow. Very easy forecast to miss on this one.

3k was run out of our basements. Narrow high end advisory type stuff right near and just south of pike in eastern areas.

NAM is pretty cold too. It’s not particularly juicy though.

BOS 27.6 in that is fake too. They measured too frequently. I remember the scandal at the time but for some reason they just let the total stand

Almost nowhere. Maybe a very thin zone of it for about 3-4 hours once the low level cold starts advecting in during the second half of the event…so any glaze should be pretty minimal. Obviously untreated sidewalks and roads can get nasty with just a little, but overall ice will be very minimal imho.

You’ve only had 2”? I had 4.5” in the norlun on 2/7 and 1.6” last Sunday.

Best lift looks below DGZ on most guidance too so I don’t love it. But some of these runs have very intense rates for 2-3 hours. So if someone gets a surprise 4-6”, it will be because they prob ended up in a narrow area of very strong lift/rates.

I’m thinking 2-4” here…maybe 1-3”. Well see how quickly things cool.

Yeah and it’s tedious enough that we could get almost nothing from this next 7 days too. Though I don’t think we’re done after Monday by any stretch. There’s risk for some warmth or rain but 18z GFS and some of these other random runs show you how it can break very very snowy too. Lots of cold lurking up north in the extended.

Def better aloft there. AI having such a strong signal for Monday makes me feel like we’ll trend that way but I’d like to figure out the first two systems first. They are all over the place. Friday especially has been all over the place. Wednesday is a hard forecast because of how narrow the heavier precip is…Friday night is literally like 0” to 12” for possible realistic totals.

18z gfs gone wild in the extended too

EPS for each threat… Wednesday Friday night Sunday night/Monday