ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Looks like BOS is getting the ol’ 7-10 split
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Looks like the GFS will not whiff on the phase like 18z did.
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Just training over here right now.
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Now we’re rocking. This is pounding.
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That happens when you go into a very snowy pattern. It just finds ways to snow. It’s like running hot at the plate in baseball or hot hand in basketball. You had the same thing happen to you last Saturday. Like a 1-2” event turned into 4-5”.
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Yeah I like that look. Delays the overrunning some with the lower heights north of us but you still have a ton of energy diving down the backside ready to crush that baroclinic zone. Too bad it’s the clown range NAM
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Really starting to pick up. Everything coated. Might be able to squeeze out an inch looking at radar.
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The funny part about that CF showing up a bit inland is that the south shore might be like 30F but with obscenely steep lapse rates up to like 900mb. You’re getting ocean enhancement but might be enhanced by low level instability.
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You may get some CF enhancement for a time anyway.
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It's a longer duration SWFE, but basically same mechanics. Since we have all this gulf moisture and the cold dome is extreme, we can wring out a lot of precip versus the usual 0.5-0.75 we normally do. It would be our biggest region-wide storm in years regardless. There's still a chance we can trend it higher, but you'd need that secondary stuff.
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Looked a bit juicier than 12z down in SNE....but the overall idea wasn't too different. It's not cranking the secondary in the midlevels because of the issues we talked about earlier (too much ridging getting into S Quebec)...it's just a really juiced cold SWFE. But likely widespread double digits in that kind of look (10-16" type event)
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18z GEFS looking better than OP (and also the 12z GEFS) makes it even easier to toss that 18z OP GFS run. We were tossing it anyway, but now it's more of a violent toss.
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Not overly worried about OP GFS being the ugliest model....it usually is in almost every single major event we have (major = widespread double digits totals). But if other guidance starts running the N stream out ahead, then we'll have a problem.
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GFS is gonna be more tepid...missed phasing out west.
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ICON was quite good but not the borderline HECS solution. Develops the coastal pretty good in the low levels but there’s too much ridging ahead of the main shortwave so we don’t get a good conveyor going in the midlevels once the WAA/Overrunning pushes through. That’s why you want to try and keep those heights just a little lower to the north. Not too much or you suppress it….Goldilocks solution is what you are aiming for. Which is why it’s not the likely solution…but still possible.
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Seems like PM guidance is trending more toward MA and N CT. Either way looks like a C-1” deal. Maybe a spot 2” for someone if they get lucky.
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The ideal solution is to try and keep heights to our northeast semi-low while slamming all that backend vorticity into the trough…that would make the coastal take off and enhance fronto for us….thats the longshot HECS scenario. My guess is we get something imperfect like prolonged overrunning and a very sloped/disorganized coastal. 18z NAM looked like it was trying to trend toward the nirvana solution. Really loading that energy out west but the heights to our north were a bit lower.
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EPS is pretty solid...I think this will increase a bit too as we get closer unless something drastically changes aloft.
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It's showing up like that on most soundings....10 to 1 will be way too low to use in this storm imho. I'd go the "cold storm' climo right now of about 14 to 1 but I could see something higher than that too...but you never want to forecast higher unless you're really close with obvious model agreement.
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No it wasn’t. They aren’t that different but 06z was def a bit better.
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I’ll save you the time
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06z was a better solution. 12z got over its skis a bit and the overrunning is kind of disjointed with that trailing energy more than 06z was. They are kind of separate on both solutions but 12z is moreso.
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Weren’t we just discussing the euroAI solution? Ineedsnow said over an inch for all of SNE and you said it’s a mid sized snowstorm. I agree some solution like the Icon is fairly mid…maybe 8-12ish…but any of these that are producing inflow and 1-1.5” of QPF is major at minimum.
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Over an inch of QPF with those temp profiles is not a “mid sized snowstorm”. That’s major and it’s possible the QPF is underdone a bit in a solution like that. It’s forming a CCB with 40-50 knots of inflow at 850…so there’s definitely mechanics for higher end totals. But even 1.25” of QPF at 14 to 1 is a 17” snowstorm.
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Euro skynet gone wild
