ORH_wxman

I think someone will have a nice surprise. Don’t know exactly where but I wouldn’t be shocked to see a lucky area get solid warning criteria.

If he gets 3-4” and ORH, me and Scooter get 1-2”, best event of the season.

They won’t radiate Saturday night with strong CAA but Sunday night they might. Winds take a while to subside and there could be some cloud cover trying to move in so we may not see a lot of radiators going wild during this cold shot, but the best chance is Sunday night.

This weekend is more of a wind chill event than an absolute temp event. We’ll see how low ORH and BOS go since they are non-radiators. I’ll be impressed if BOS can get near 0F and ORH can crack -5F.

Doesn’t matter. QPF is the only map anyone should look at with the ptype being all snow

Weeklies have been on and off with the blocking in march. This run was still pretty cold but didn't have much Atlantic blocking. But previous runs have had it. It's the hardest form of blocking to predict though, so can't take much stock in that part of it. You can see the trailing 5-day mean here for Mar 10-15 (similar for the several days around it).....basically a +TNH pattern....but if we throw a bit more ATL blocking on top if guidance is struggling with that, then you could imagine it could get pretty fun...but even this pattern could do some things

1930s had some epic torches....I'm sure the dust bowl helped out....low dewpoint air everywhere. But even some of the winters in the '30s were obscenely warm...quite the contrast when you mix in a 1933-34 with those warm winters....kind of like having 2014-15 next to 2015-16 last decade. (early 1950s are sneaky VERY warm in NNE too)

Weeklies have a decent gradient pattern going into early March....not that they have been great this winter.

Yeah this doesnt look like a narrow area of 3-4" while everyone else gets flurries....seems like there's enough lift for a general light snow to give a lot of folks 1-2"....the question is who gets 3-5". Prob a few enhanced areas do. And yes, people may not want an inch or two, but that has nothing to do with the forecast.

congrats scooter on 3k gone wild there

Euro OP is also similar for 2/11. Nothing huge but perhaps advisory snowfall.

Euro skynet was def hedging on the colder side until very late in the run…def likes the 2/10-11 storm. Not very prolific but mostly snow.

Euro loves @Ginx snewx to @radarman for an interior band

I think I’m all set with the pre-1940 winters…colder but drier. Unless it’s the 1930s….lot of huge torches mixed in that decade but it did have 1933-34. I’ll take the 1960s again though.

Closest was the airmass right before the big dog storm. ORH managed a single digit high. But it wasn’t anything historic like a 1994, 2004, or even Jan 2019…nevermind those crushing quick airmasses like Feb 2016/2023. It was more akin to the January 2005 blizzard airmass. Super impressive for a storm but nothing amazing from an absolute temperature standpoint.

In 2015 we were taking obs at 1m instead of 2m

Only if ratios are great. Which they might be. But don’t want to base a forecast off great ratios 48+ hours out. The higher QPF areas near north shore are higher confidence. There will probably be a localized band or two over interior but we don’t where it will set up yet.

Yes. Everything from beyond D6 right now is a disaster on model guidance. They are flip flopping all over the place. My gut still says hedge a bit colder given the NAO block (and the tendency for guidance to be hedging colder as we get closer)…but the pacific is becoming unfavorable so it’s a battle.

N shore of MA to adjacent SE NH and even near BOS is showing up on almost all guidance right now as an enhanced spot. If that holds, my guess is def Essex county gets an advisory and maybe Rockingham county. May need to include BOS and parts of south shore/Plymouth county too.

That's prob double digits there, lol

6" perfectly stacked dendrites on the north shore turning into 2" of compacted dry cement an hour later with 50mph winds.

Yeah these soundings would be 20 to 1 easy....you don't want to forecast that unless its within 24h and all guidance agrees....but some alarm bells are going off in my head from some previous inverted trough setups that we had in the late 2000s and early 2010s that gave warning snowfall to localized spots. Anytime you get that very unstable low-level look. North shore right now looks like the best spot (and it might get down into BOS and your area too), but there's a chance of an interior band somewhere too.

At least this time you only missed the white Xmas by like 15 miles instead of 15 blocks

Someone could get a localized warning criteria snowfall out of this up on the north shore or maybe somewhere else that gets under a lucky band for 2-3 hours. Assuming some of these soundings are close to reality anyway....very unstable in the low levels with big omega and a cold sounding for DGZ. I'd think there's a chance for a big surprise somewhere.

Oh that was right near BOS at 57 hours