ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Near midnight and just beyond is when you see the sounding try and go nuts....if we get big omega, then we can prob flip to paste....otherwise lot of sleet and mangled flakes probably....but you can see here what the HRRR is tryong to do (other guidance was similar)....you start blasting the DGZ with deep lift, then you can really latently cool the column efficiently. And almost every single sounding has that warm layer really thin too. So you know this could be a rate-dependent type of system.
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FIT or ORH? Typically ORH is gonna have lower dewpoints because of the elevation difference. But if you’re a rad pit, you may start off the day artificially low because of extra moisture that was lost from the atmosphere when you condensed frost or dew.
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KFIT is prob kind of fake because they radiated so well earlier. ORH has been rotting at 29F dewpoint for hours....briefly spiked to 31F when rain moved in, but fell again when it tapered.
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Nothing scream busting colder right now. Not overly impressed with the dewpoints yet in SE NH/E MA. PSM is 29F dew. Need that at least 4-5F lower. Or at the very least, 2-3F colder with a corresponding SFC temp drop so that it’s the same difference for wetbulb…if we’re trying to bust colder. It’s fairly close to most guidance.
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These usually “bust” on the warmer side when you are waiting for cold air to advect in…sometimes they work out. But I’d want to see an acceleration of the better airmass and more importantly, I want to see big omega tonight.
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Need to see dews dropping well into the 20s I think by mid-late afternoon to feel more frozen with this one. This feels like one of those events where a ton of QPF is wasted on 33-36F rain. But we’ll see.
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Lol. His jackpot fetish has only increased as he’s gotten older. Didn’t mellow at all. Pretty on he’ll be doing 5 page write ups on a 1-2” event if Boston and ORH will miss it.
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Difference is lift between the NAM and those shorter term mesos. Those shorter mesos just go bonkers. NAM is more subdued. Lots of 33F rain on NAM.
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12z RAP might have even been more violent than the HRRR. It has like 8-10” of spackle even on kuchera maps. It’s an isothermal blue bomb for pike region over to Scooter and BOS and north to Ray.
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Let’s get a March 24, 1993 mini blue bomb at Logan (over 8” of pure spackle on a weak but juicy system running into a Quebec high with marginal antecedent airmass)
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Ray will get 4-5” while everyone else gets slop or nothing and he will declare it the best event since 1/7/24.
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18z euro starting to show the dendrite-drift on the high middle of next week. That’s gonna be my new term for Quebec highs trying to nose down and ruin torches. It’s the high pressure version of the messenger shuffle. @dendrite gets the honors since his area is usually first on tap to get screwed by these.
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Yeah that def helps too. We'll see what the real dews do to it early next week.
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Some guidance had dews well into the 40s today, but I saw lots of 20s and low 30s glancing at the sfc plot this afternoon...so yeah, prob the main reason the shade didn't melt much of anything today.
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Congrats BOS on borderline warning snowfall on 18z Euro.
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Lot of dripping in the sun today but kind of shocked at how pathetic it was in the shade (as evidenced by the ice not melting on my walkway in my picture)…I assumed at least my walkway would get cleared regardless of sun exposure.
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All about the sun…damned walkway is still a sheet of ice where the sun didn’t get to it this afternoon.
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It has a pretty legit ice storm near the pike and into S NH. Snow north of that.
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Goofus is frigid....basically a warning snow event for BOS after some sleet. Gets ZR into most of CT
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The real test is how long does the sun today take to melt off the 1.7" of snow from yesterday evening on top of existing snow.
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3k NAM near BOS. Mini snow bomb? Lol
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Yeah it’s gonna take a beating this weekend and early next week. Esp if overnight mins are coming in solidly above freezing. I feel like the damage will be relatively minor until after Friday system passes. Maybe tomorrow gives it a bit of a hit if we can get enough sun and 50s.
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Is 51 vs 46 really that different? If there’s enough sun and some mixing I bet we’ll spike 50 but if we hang onto low clouds longer and mixing is crap, it could get stuck at like 40-42F in places.
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Depends on mixing. Ironically a place like BDL is more likely to be stuck in the upper 30s or low 40s than Tolland. There could actually be a mild sea breeze too so Scooter might get shot back into the 30s if that occurs.
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Account from yore in a 12/16/07 event back then: ”We endured 4 hours of blinding snow in the northeast gale. Up to thy knickers by the finis. The courier was dumbfounded to find a snow tempest in Plymouth MA after riding through heavy ice in Tolland CT.”
