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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Very similar to late January for that Feb 1st system when the Euro was on an island for a few runs. All other guidance was contorting itself with a plethora of different looks that all produced no snow. This time it’s the GFS but same idea. The misses look tantalizing but they miss for a reason.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Yeah we can at least agree with him this time that he’s not getting much from this one. Maybe an inch or two on Saturday though depending on mesoscale stuff.
  3. ORH_wxman
    The problem is we need more than decent changes at h5 on models like the Ukie that still result in a whiff. We needed that 24-48 hours ago. We’re getting close enough now that having the GFS on an island is an obvious red flag. Euro is gonna have to come north west solidly for me to entertain a large hit.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Yeah GGEM is basically a whiff. Some light snows for eastern areas but nothing of significance.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Wish Reggie was correct with warning snows here but I’m on the side of Ray’s map…I think 2-4” with lots of crud in there is the more likely scenario. Could even be less too if something like 12k NAM is correct but seems to be an outlier on the QPF being so light.
  6. ORH_wxman
    As the heights crash and the ML dryslot approaches late tomorrow evening, some of the guidance shows very intense precip…Reggie was hitting this but even the 3k NAM has it now too (not really the the 12k)….there could be a heavy burst of snow for 2-3 hours or so if the column is cool enough.
  7. ORH_wxman
    NAM is an unmitigated disaster in SE Canada for getting any type of storm even close to us. Have to hope it’s just the clown range NAM being the clown range NAM.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Gotta watch Saturday. Look at how deep the DGZ gets underneath that rapidly crashing H5 wave. Wouldn’t take much for someone to stack some fluffies if a little LL convergence sets up overhead. North shore might be in a good spot again…don’t expect norlun totals again but some enhancement is def possible.
  9. ORH_wxman
    NAM is decently south of 06z. The WAA thump though looks weak and disorganized. The best snows for us down here might be as the heights are collapsing after the WAA “thump” very late Friday evening and then during the day on Saturday when hangback moisture is prevalent in a very deep DGZ.
  10. ORH_wxman
    So we’re all holding out on the OP euro.
  11. ORH_wxman
    What idiot started this thread?
  12. ORH_wxman
    Def more members inside the BM now on 18z EPS. I think 00z is going to be a big run....can't have another regression back east like last night's runs.
  13. ORH_wxman
    06z run was damned closed on Euro....it crushed the cape.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Yeah usually euro showing this would be a death knell to the threat, but I don't trust the Euro at all....
  15. ORH_wxman
    Euro skynet with a nice bump NW That would be a good hit for eastern areas.
  16. ORH_wxman
    I feel like this is prob an advisory deal near and N of pike....maybe someone a little further north can get low end warning.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Few rain drops outside and 36F...that's the first time it has rained here in over a month.
  18. ORH_wxman
    This season had far better snowpack retention too because December 2003 turned torchy about 8-10 days after the big dog and everything got wiped out before Xmas. January 2004 had good "pack" retention, but calling it a pack is stretching it....it was a few inches of sand. Still think we can get another big storm. 2004 tried and sort of failed on 3/16....moderate storm but left some on the table.
  19. ORH_wxman
    RGEM and Euro at 06z were really good for pike region. GFS was decent too though a little warmer, but the GFS has all this weenie hangback snow for 24 hours after the main WAA thrust.
  20. ORH_wxman
    I’d be surprised if anyone saw more than C-1”. Except maybe highest terrain of southern Berkshires and NW CT, and even that might be a stretch.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Prob gonna see some flip flopping on this one as models try and untangle the knots out west.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Nah, keep the 40s and garbage onshore flow until late March. Let’s layer this pack up. No desire whatsoever for mud season and brown grass.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Need a bump NW at 12z. 06z euro suite including skynet was def a bit better.
  24. ORH_wxman
    Avoiding the glue factory
  25. ORH_wxman
    Yeah NAM isn’t biting on the north trend of the hrrr and rap.
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