ORH_wxman

https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org go to “consecutive days” under the single station drop down.

That's embarrassing. Anyways, ORH has had a pretty good streak going of not hitting 20F. Today is day 6 and tomorrow will be day 7 of continuous sub-20F temps. We haven't had a signature crazy cold outbreak but it's been consistent solidly BN cold just bleeding down the monthly departure. 7 days would be ties for 3rd longest streak on record with late Dec-early Jan 1918, Jan 2000, and late Dec-early Jan 2018. We might get to 9 days on Sunday but I think Monday will finally break the streak before we can reach 10 days. 10 days is the record....both 1979 and 1961 hit 10 days. Still an impressive streak even if we stop at 9.

GFS is advisory for 2/5....Euro is 2/7 and also advisory for SNE, but it blows it up in gulf of maine and crushes a lot to Maine with 12"+.....a lot fo iron out on that threat. Totally different evolutions.

You know this storm is in bad shape when he’s not posting.

EPS

Still surprised the euro is crushing the cape.

Workable at this time range

The whole setup sucks...trough is so far east....GFS shifted west with the trough but the low still escapes with convection...we need a wholesale shift west in successive model cycles.

GFS Should be better than 06z but that isn't saying much.

To add onto this, because the trough is so far east, you need some exotic things to happen....which the Euro pulls off, but you are relying on something with very little wiggle room. This isn't like the SWFE last week where we could basically not care much about 50-75 mile shifts....even the very aggressive northward trend in the 36-48h range barely brought sleet to the south coast.

Just not enough room...the trough is too far east. When it was digging further west through W TN/AR and LA/MS, it had more room.

Slightly worse than 00z. You are still in the game but the rest of us are prob done

Yeah. I mean there’s a chance he’s right but it’s still very uncertain. You don’t want to overstate it to the public yet because then they will go wild too.

It was the 12z OP GFS on Christmas Eve. It was so outlandish that even the NCEP model diagnostic discussion tossed it! Lol.

Lol I saw it labeled as Feb 10th. I thought it was another storm in the pipeline so I got confused. But yeah if that is for Sunday’s storm, that max band at H7 is prob your western death band.

When did 18z run to 300+ hours? Is that new?

I’m actually somewhat shocked at how bad the response to this storm has been. None of the storms like Feb 2021 or Jan 2022 or the 2018 storms caused this type of disruption. This area got really soft the last 2-3 years.

Given the bullishness of the ensembles, it seems plenty of members are slingshotting it in some fashion…even if not the exact same track. Im still somewhat of a skeptic on this being big, but I think the path to a big event is ripping that dumbbell low NNW around the H5 low….Is feel better to start things a little further west.

That looks quite a bit more favorable than 12z. A lot more runs that are dumping 1”+ of QPF around Boston and even metrowest. There’s obviously still plenty of scrapers and whiffs. I’m not sold yet but 18z Euro suite was def good.

Usually the convective lows are correct when a bunch of higher skill guidance is showing them. So this is the way to get crushed…have it get sling shotted around to the north and blast us.

Wow what a crush job for eastern folks….top 5-7 storm for Cape

The issue is the trend. We need the trend to stop and reverse. It still can but if it merely stops and doesn’t reverse, it’s prob a scraper with almost nothing for western areas.

00z is last stand I think...we need a trend back west at 00z or we can punt this one I think. This is the type of threat that 2 or 3 east trends in a row is fatal.

Looks like both skynet GFS and OP GFS are going to put an end to that....both models look east of 12z.

GFS skynet is gonna be east again