ORH_wxman

Yeah, the biggest reason this is higher end despite being a SWFE is the airmass and amount of moisture involved. You try and rip that type of gulf moisture up over the top of an arctic airmass this cold, you're going to get fireworks....and it's also kind of an ideal angle with the broad trough...so the duration is decent for a SWFE....instead of like 6 hours and out, we're more like 10-12 hours before the upper midlevels start to dryslot. You can also throw in some local enhancers with this airmass like OES and a CF....the CF helped you in a system like 12/16/07 and it might help you again. So we could easily see widespread 10-16/12-18 from that. I think a lot of the 20"+ talk is overhyped at the moment, especially since Monday is looking less onshore flow if this ticks north....but there is still the chance someone could grab 20 if we trend that Monday position a bit further south and prolong onshore flow.

This time Sunday evening will be pretty fun. Should be some crazy rates for a time.

It might. Just saying that we would reduce Monday snowfall if it ends up a bit north. We’d still prob get a band of steady snow for a few hours with the vortmax rolling through…even the northerly solutions still have that. But if we want a positive bust to the upside, keep that low a little south and rip 40+ knots at 925 out of the east and ENE. That would help give us high ratio fluff that lasts into the evening.

Winds go more northerly though if the low tracks more north like on 18z. So we need it to stay a little further south.

Yeah prob just 1-2” Monday on a more northerly track like that…it still rotates a band through with the main vort max at h5. Maybe more on north shore and parts of south shore that stick out more that can catch a more northeast flow.

Far southern Maine could get some high ratio goodies on Monday with the onshore flow. Good area to be.

Thump was more impressive this run. That’s kind of the tradeoff. If you try and rip this north into a deep arctic airmass, you end up getting a stronger thump ahead of it.

Basically dumps an inch of QPF in 12 hours on that thump.

That wasn’t anything close to the NAM thermally.

Risky forecast giving a haircut on south shore down near PYM/Duxbury/GHG/Carver....while it's possible they get sleeted on, they could really stack it up from ocean enhancement too.

Skynet GFS was a tick flatter as well.

Yes. But you will get smoked before it mixes.

I feel like AI has opened up a new playbook for you. We will remember the photoshop days fondly though.

Still pretty skeptical on real sleet getting north of the south coast….not talking about dryslot pellets/snow grains that ends up irrelevant to the snow totals. But actual legit pounding sleet. But we’ll see if we get a bump north between now and go time…if so, then maybe real sleet sneaks into places like PYM over to EWB and maybe even TAN-GHG.

Reggie looks about the same through 33 hours...maybe a smidge suppressed compared to 12z.

I've seen it plenty of times this far out....it's rarely too warm inside of like 36 hours.

Def could be....tracks it just about over ACK which is def north of most guidance. NAM is still in that 54-60 hour range for the meat of the storm, so you'd want to see a few more cycles of that.

Euro maybe ticked a smidge SE. Not large changes though.

2 feet is pretty damned rare up here….even 20-burger only happened about a dozen times in ORH. But keeping in the spirit of the discussion, Feb ‘58 is prob the only other one I can think of. Not sure if Mar 1960 got decent snow into ATL but it def did in the Carolinas.

Only had to wait 4 years for SE MA to reclaim the jackpot capital of the region.

We’re getting a pseudo El Niño pattern in a Niña February. That is so weird to see on all the guidance.

What a crush job for Scooter that run.

I doubt this storm will have those types of crazy snowfall gradients. There will obviously be some enhanced areas but prob more like someone getting 19” or 20” versus 15” instead of 25-burgers 10 miles away from a foot. The massive thump should be relatively uniform 10-15” and then anything on top of that will probably be Monday onshore flow stuff.

You’re in a great spot. Both for CF enhancement during the WAA thump and then for onshore flow on Monday.