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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    all joking aside, that’s a problem with these more recent runs starting with the 18z Euro. The H5 trough isn’t deepening as further south as earlier runs.
  2. ORH_wxman
    She gone…maybe.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Clown range NAM doesn’t look bad.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Not the exact same setup but seeing some of these paltry depictions despite a deep closed ULL to our south reminds me a bit of the model fumbling prior to 2/15/15. The 18z euro is not included in that because that was so much further north than any other recent runs.
  5. ORH_wxman
    With this storm, if you don’t like a model solution, just wait 6 hours.
  6. ORH_wxman
    We’ll see what the EPS looks like this run. There was a ton of spread on the 12z eps so this type of solution is within the envelope.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Actually brings a pseudo-CCB into Maine that run. That’s how far north it was.
  8. ORH_wxman
    GEFS is able to swing that shortwave negative to our south which is what really helps juice that QPF up….prob a lot of members with a full blown CCB into eastern SNE …and not just swing negative, but allow it to gain some latitude while it does
  9. ORH_wxman
    Prob a warning event for SE areas that run. Not totally surprising as the 12z GEFS were kind of bullish.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Shit or get off the pot time though for having a AN snow season for anyone who averages over about 45”. If we can score even a couple 4-8” type events, that would go a long way to keeping us in the game. EPS is showing PNA trying to spoke again late month so maybe another window for a coastal there. GEFS more lukewarm on that but it does have a pretty cold look with slight SE ridging.
  11. ORH_wxman
    That was the snowiest EPS run for New England in a while. Definitely some chances throughout those two weeks.
  12. ORH_wxman
    EPS has a decent number of members that are warning snow for a chunk of SNE. Lot of spread of course.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Yep. You get a prolonged overrunning and then you take advantage of a bit of conveyor that gets going as the low goes south of us.
  14. ORH_wxman
    That was a pretty nice euro run. Lot of chances.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Just keep deepening it and good things happen.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Man, this is something that is usually eye-opening.
  17. ORH_wxman
    It was a pretty huge hit over interior New England.
  18. ORH_wxman
    GEFS looks pretty threatening for SE areas and cape.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Yeah NH is basically just Canada and CT is fake NYC.
  20. ORH_wxman
    One good thing is that i do like how potent the energy is. Guidance will often dampen/weaken it too quickly. Hopefully a similar scenario here.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Ensembles have an interesting western ridge spike near the end of their run around 1/25. A few of the OP runs have been showing a bigger system around then too. I’d also still keep an eye on potential SWFE type system around 1/18-19
  22. ORH_wxman
    Let’s get some positive trends today. Potential is still high even if all these moving parts make it a tough system to expect big snows with. But hell, I don’t even need the double digit upside here, as much as many of us want it, I’d take a solid 5-8” event and hope we can tack on other systems in this pattern.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Yeah bark is worse than bite here.
  24. ORH_wxman
    Got a bit squashed this run. This is prob the type of system that wont be that stable until we’re inside 100 hours. It’s an imperfect setup with a bunch of moving parts…why it’s still somewhat of a longshot to deliver big snows (not talking a 1-3/2-4 type deal)
  25. ORH_wxman
    These are also the types of wins we’d get in the 2010s constantly. Trends that helped us so often in the medium range instead of trending to crap. But when you’re going cold like we’ve been, very few of these work out.
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