ORH_wxman

Reggie looks solid for RI. Mini-weenies for scooter and Ray.

These are the types of events you really need the large ranges. So much bust potential. These soundings are no joke for whoever gets stuck under some lift. It’s not like a marginal temp sounding with an inversion lower down in the atmosphere…this is lift-off if you can get a little forcing with the max omega cutting through the heart of the DGZ.

Not the worst spot to be before an IVT/norlun…playing naked twister with the max interior banding. But obviously these are fickle so you gotta keep expectations low.

Prob good for 2-4” eastern CT, 1-3” western (the higher side prob being Litchfield county)….might go a little higher near Ginxy and towns near RI. ORH to BOS is 3-6” but obviously someone is gonna get a surprise. Favoring Essex county and then maybe someone down near S RI. Might have to watch south shore too. It’s a really difficult forecast….inverted trough/Norluns probably have the largest bust potential of any snow event as forecasters.

Ray might delete his account if that happened.

That’s prob 2-3” per hour easy. Might get a clap of thunder if that verified.

I’ve only seen those 60+ TTs a small handful of times widespread during a winter/WINDEX type event…Jan 28, 2010 was one of them. I remember a pretty good one in Feb 2013 (wanna say 2/24/13) where some guidance was ramping up the TTs but I don’t think they quite reached 60.

Down in RI at 21z.....GFS sounding....TTs now around 55.

This is the GFS sounding at 18z tomorrow in metrowest 128-495 region....that's prob 2"+ per hour stuff...gotta love the TTs around 50. Someone could get thunder.

There’s no chance NYC goes below 0F. Unless there is just some sort of catastrophic model failure of 3-5C at 925mb.

BOX AFD def went somewhat wild…but I mostly agree with going bullish for the zones they did. That cross hair sig has been on almost every single model sounding. So wherever a band can set up, it’s gonna stack fast. That and the LL lapse rates are crazy good.

Yeah I think a lot of it is timing which isn't a surprise when you look at the upper level trough....it's coming in via a -PNA look on the west coast, so it's very broad as is crosses the middle of the CONUS....so given the broad trough, prob a lot of timing differences on when energy pops the best coastal.

BVY up to Salem, Manchester-by-the-sea, and Cape Ann could be ground zero. These are fickle so no guarantees, but those spots have done very well before on IVT/Norlun-esque setups. These soundings are excellent too for those near the coast with those steep low level lapse rates being even more enhanced.

Snowiest EPS run in a while....there's multiple chances in there. Decent signal for next Saturday, but far from tight consensus...good Scooter high in Quebec though

Both 18z NAMs held fairely steady though the 3k reduced the wildness in Essex county and maybe got a touch jucier in metrowest/central MA. But the same idea...still the best shot at warning is North shore.

Forecast 0-6” and you’ll be covered for that event. I’d hedge on the lower side for now though. Looks moisture-starved.

Very similar to what I posted above about gem and GFS failing but the euro succeeds in getting it up here. It’s a classic -PNA/-NAO split flow look. They can work awesome for us at times.

It’s weird how euro has been ignoring the north shore jackpot…inclined to toss it

OP euro is pretty cold. Snow for almost all of SNE but it’s basically just a WAA band and not very much QPF. Best QPF is actually NNE on euro. Maybe 1-2 SNE and 2-4 NNE. Paltry system.

Both GFS and GEM try and rain here for that one…though there is sleet/ice on the front end. Skynet models have been consistently colder on that threat.

Yeah and they might even need a warning in Essex county. I think they’ll prob go advisory for eastern half of SNE in their afternoon update. Seems like there is enough confidence in widespread 2-4/3-5 over ORH, Middlesex, Bristol, Norfolk, PYM counties….and prob all of RI. Eastern CT a little trickier. Windham and New London counties prob decent chance of advisory…even back to Tolland county…but guidance a little more variable in CT compared to RI/E MA. There’s a chance someone down near south coast around GON to Old Lyme could get a big surprise too. That’s been showing up as a secondary or tertiary maximum zone outside of North Shore.

Kind of a split flow look out west late next week and weekend with low heights over NE and SE Canada…. Both OP GEM and OP GFS don’t quite succeed but you can see the potential

12z herpes looks like GFS…maybe not quite as wild but same idea

That’s prob a lot of low end warning snow on GFS for eastern half of SNE. Don’t think I’d go quite that bullish but there will def be spots that see low end warning imho.

3k NAM gives BVY and Manchester-by-the-sea like 12-15”.