ORH_wxman

Yes. 2/13-14 on euro Skynet and GFS Skynet has a couple threats…one around 2/11 and another 2/15.

Both skynet models have been more bullish for keeping snow chances (even with moderated temps) than the regular model suites in the second week of February. We’ll see as we get closer if that’s more correct. They have been performing pretty well imho overall. They never got very bullish on the 1/31-2/1 threat (correctly so), stayed more bullish than OPs on both the 1/18-19 and 1/25 threats (also correctly). Still in clown range for now.

I also think the delivery on Saturday is a little more west than we want it for best realization at the sfc. Still damned cold stuff, but I like to see it drilling more from the NNW and this is NW to WNW even.

Evap cooling

The mid month SSW could def make March interesting. But there’s never any guarantee that happens. It does look like the WPO tries to reload after mid month. The Bering/AK vortex though will be stuck with us at least for a week, and perhaps a bit longer. The NAO will try to offset that some but it is still going to be a much milder pattern than we’ve seen.

Prob some decent members in there

It got slightly more juiced synoptically but the WINDEX aspect of it really ramped up. We got those crazy intense squalls that gave a lot of people 2”+ just from the squalls.

All Of us should see some snow showers but if we can get a little bit of moisture influx from the south as it hits the Atlantic, that could help with more widespread accumulations. We’d want that whole system to dig a bit more.

Getting stein in February sucks...fairly often you get pretty good precip in February when it's cold too because the seasonal recovery is already rapidly underway down south so you get these juiced baroclinic zones....not early on this month.

Skynet looked kind of interesting next week....OP GFS doesn't.

I love how it’s a clown range solution that’s a whisker away from a SWFE as proof it’s cutter season.

Gulf coast has been getting some ridiculous cold the last couple winters. Also 2 big snow events in the far southeast. Last year it was the FL panhandle getting a blizzard with like a foot of snow and then this year we had this weekend’s storm in SC and NC coastlines.

ORH finally hit 20F today. They got 8 in a row without hitting it which puts that steak alone in 3rd place behind 1961 and 1979 which tied with 10 each.

SSWE would affect us in the first half of March if it ends up being an impactful event. The vortex split is ongoing but the max warming actually occurs closer to mid-February. Usually a mid-Feb SSWE is felt by us in 2-3 weeks so that would place us in very early March. That’s actually what happened in the 2018 Niña. Occurred during mid February and really was felt in March. It also happened in the 2001 Niña. Both produced extreme blocking patterns that really enhanced storm potential those months. Both of those years also had relaxations in second half of February. 2018 had a full torch with temps near 70F.

Not necessarily. We will prob build up some pretty strong Feb negative departures the first week-plus…so even if we torch for 5-7 days, that may just get us back near normal or maybe not even if the torch isn’t super strong. Ideally it’s just a relaxation closer to climo. If it was 2015, we’d get 2 feet of overrunning while the rest of the country torches during the relaxation.

It could. But it doesn’t always. Sometimes the NAO will link up with a SE ridge which will torch us. We’ll have to wait and see as we get closer.

BOS was -1.9F on their January departure. But it was def an outlier compared to other parts of SNE. ORH -2.9 PVD -2.8 BDL -3.1

There are legit risks for a true mild spell mid-month. I wouldn’t be going all Torch Tiger yet about it due to the -NAO blocking throwing a wrench in there, but we shouldn’t pretend it’s just going to disappear automatically. Bering vortex is a very warm signal usually.

Wow you mean weather enthusiasts discuss the chance of a big storm on a weather forum? Who knew? We should all stay silent until it’s a lock…that sounds very intellectually stimulating!

It might not be that cold mid-month. But if it’s near climo, that’s usually good enough in mid-February. Ideally we’d get the reload for late Feb and into first half of Mar when climo starts going the wrong direction at a faster pace. Remains to be seen on that part.

South shore OES might be the winners in this one. Even more than ACK.

We get a transient AK/Bering vortex but we also have a -NAO. Normally we’d prob torch for several days, but we’ll see if NAO block mutes that. We do get another -WPO reload…pattern looks pretty active though after next weekend so I think we’ll have chances. Hopefully we can score a good event during the relaxation period and not have it cut.

I agree with you…just was pointing out that those maps (esp near us due to regional climate variability) will make it look a lot warmer than our more conventional departures would suggest given the ‘51-80 base period….january was def more -AO so prob larger mid-latitude bands of colder airmass.

That’s using 1951-1980 normals though…which is also the coldest 30 year period in winter for a chunk of NE in the last 100 years (gotta go back to earlier 20th century to beat it)….much easier to get BN on ‘91-20 normals.

I’m more impressed with 31F at PBI. Not easy to get below freezing at West Palm Beach