ORH_wxman

Tight gradient that run.

Oh yeah. I’m not saying we’re not due for some biggies. I’m just saying I still can’t believe we lived through that. I used to dream about what it would’ve been like to be alive during the 1955-1972 period. I never thought we could match or beat it in our lifetimes.

You and Brett lived through the best 18 year period of snow in southeast MA on record. ‘01-‘18 is the GOAT. As someone who deeply studied MA snow climatology growing up and even after my college years, it still boggles my mind. Spending most of it on the forums was a privilege.

Depends on QPF imho. If 18z euro solution happens, you’re getting 2-3” of paste. But if it’s just light crap that’s around 0.10” over 5-6 hours, then it’s slushy C-1” crap.

“You chose poorly”

I think its definitely low probability for warning snows even for eastern areas, but there's truth in that nobody really has a great feel for this system. I think even the most seasoned mets are looking at the trough position and know it's quite good....but the shortwave interference is mucking it up...however, it's not always fatal to a storm when you have shortwave interference....esp if other factors are good enough to overcome it like a massive ridge out west and/or very strong vort energy near base trough. So we're all kind of waiting to see if the negative variable can be overcome by the positive ones.

I want to see warning snowfall back to ORH on most model guidance before I think I'm getting even advisory here. This storm is ripe for a big trend NW through tomorrow and then a nice rug-pull after that.

I think interior N and W of 495 will be mostly snow as 925 temps never get warmer than about -2C....hard to rain like that if you have anything steady falling....if it's really light it could be white rain or even plain rain maybe. Mesos are significantly colder in the BL so those would be snow even close to BOS.

While it was a scraper, 18z euro actually moved a decent amount NW. But that’s partly because the 12z run was a completely clean whiff even on the Cape.

Blizzard24. Kevin was really good friends with him. I think they talked in the phone sometimes.

The January formula for having a chance to save this winter: 1. Don’t get skunked Sunday (at least give a chunk of the region a few inches…doesn’t need to be massive) 2. Grab a warning event out of the SWFE pattern late next week/weekend 3. Grab a major event out of the El Niño +PNA pattern between 1/26-1/30.

Let’s get the euro something better than a Cape scraper. At least get some advisory stuff to E MA coast and we’ll have something to work with at 3 days out.

OP GFS with another round of hits next week and weekend. Been a lot of that recently which is something that we hadn’t seen much of so far this winter. We’ve had fleeting larger threats but not a lot of consistent longer range storms that show up multiple runs across different guidance. So that keeps me optimistic.

Reggie with a move west. Prob wrong but still plenty of model disagreement.

Yeah this is all just fodder....if we can get a bump back west on the varsity models at 00z, then we're still in the game, but otherwise it's lights out.

3k went kind of wild over CT.

Prob a few inches for SE areas on this run.

It def looks better than 12z, but that isn't saying much yet.

Nice…that’s even a little more impressive than the clown range Euro prog. I would’ve thought 2023 was a smaller area but it wasn’t (unless it modified a bit before verification). It just moved in and out at lightning speed, lol. Feb 2016 had decent -30 area at 925 but I don’t recall a monster area. It was kind of localized south of Canadian border once it moved in.

I’d be shocked if we went through a large chunk of Feb with an El Niño N PAC pattern but stranger things have happened. My guess is we revert back to RNA/-EPO pattern as we go into February. That can still be ok but you risk SE ridge getting too stout which happens frequently in Niña Februarys.

Almost get a classic El Nino N PAC there late in the ensembles with an Aleutian low and +PNA ridge.

Coldest temps I’ve ever seen modeled here. Granted it’s total clown range but that is crazy historic cold.

You were Arnold in Commando a few years ago and now you’re the dude from Indiana Jones and the last Crusade who drinks from the wrong cup.

Ok these are the cold events that @dendrite and I like to track. Cold worth tracking. Pure clown range fantasy but it’s so anomalous its worth posting…. Not sure I’ve seen -30C at 925 over such a large area. This would be almost perfect too if the timing happened this way because you wouldn’t get the cheap midnight high. Real push arrives between 00z-06z and its so strong that we get like a Xmas 1980 type daytime with highs near -10F even over interior SNE.

EPS actually looked slightly better vs 00z…that isn’t saying much though. But it gets 1-2” to south shore area and Cape.