ORH_wxman

GEFS individual lows

Ukie was still mostly a miss. Scraper. But it was better than 12z.

That one was a slower mover but it’s possible this could have a similar longitude gradient in the snowfall.

Yeah prob warning snows for eastern half of SNE but western parts still get good advisory snows.

GGEM is a pretty big hit too for eastern zones.

I went to see a Garth Brooks concert that Saturday night and as we got into Boston, the backlash started and temps dropped like 10 degrees. Everything went from sloppy mess to frozen with 3” of powder on top. Was a really wintry scene in town that night. Of course, I was weenieing out the entire time during the concert checking the NAM, then the RGEM, etc as the 00z runs came in and that’s when they turned it into a monster HECS. The 12z runs had already gone into a moderate event.

The predecessor wave drops 1-3” Saturday PM across most of interior SNE/CNE

That was objectively a nice move. Need another one.

Man, too bad we can't lock in the entire run of 18z skynet Euro....winter of yore.

The low center ticked E but it was stronger with a larger QPF field, so the QPF looked slightly west. It's kind of what @Typhoon Tip was saying earlier about how the center can move slightly E but the impact of sensible wx can move slightly W if the storm is stronger/larger. Either way, we're talking error bars here....nothing big.

AI GFS bumped NW…OP did not.

You hope maybe we trend into a compromise of sorts and get at least something half-decent out of this. The 12z blizzard was a pipe dream given it had zero support.

Def less dynamic looking than 12z though. But should still be a good hit.

Yeah GFS Skynet still trending better a bit. OP looks a bit less amped than 12z but still prob gonna be a hit.

Looking more likely…esp outside SE areas.

No

There on all guidance but particularly noticeable on euro.

I do like the mean trough position on this look. We have two shortwaves and the kicker might be key here…we want it to dig to help raise the heights ahead of the first one. It will have some destructive interference, but a little bit of that is okay otherwise we’d be trying to rip this north into the Hudson valley. You can see all that vort energy string out ahead of the storm over New England on the op euro which is a problem…it’s preventing downstream ridging to allow this storm to gain latitude

EPS is a bit better than the OP….which isn’t a high bar obviously…but I’d rather that than the other way around. 1-2” for far SE areas it looks like while the OP was a complete whiff even for the cape.

I do like the AIs being more bullish on this. They wanted almost nothing to do with 1/15 which was kind of a red flag. I wouldn’t forecast solely on AI models, but if they are showing more support then that always helps.

Yeah the full description was “the crazy drunk uncle” but we all just shortened it to crazy uncle. Jerry def came up with the name at least 15 years ago…I think it was late 2000s winters.

I had already told Don that once the euro came out, we’d see the vibe shift sharply back in the opposite direction. Im not selling the threat fully just yet. But GFS is obviously an outlier. To be fair though, so is the Euro. Those are the two goalposts. Most guidance is in between those two.

It is front-running too much vorticity it seems like. Keeps those heights lower out ahead of it. If that eases a bit, I think we’d see the trough sharpen nicely but there’s a reasonable chance the Euro is correct on the energy distribution…and if that’s the case, this won’t produce. Hopefully it’s a little too happy with that idea like it’s done a few times this winter.

At least this threat has been semi-bullish on the AI models whereas the Friday threat was pretty much nada on those. Euro trending worse though is definitively a bad sign.

Euro skynet got a little better. Prob solid advisory east of ORH. We wait on the OP run.