ORH_wxman

06z run was damned closed on Euro....it crushed the cape.

Yeah usually euro showing this would be a death knell to the threat, but I don't trust the Euro at all....

Euro skynet with a nice bump NW That would be a good hit for eastern areas.

I feel like this is prob an advisory deal near and N of pike....maybe someone a little further north can get low end warning.

Few rain drops outside and 36F...that's the first time it has rained here in over a month.

This season had far better snowpack retention too because December 2003 turned torchy about 8-10 days after the big dog and everything got wiped out before Xmas. January 2004 had good "pack" retention, but calling it a pack is stretching it....it was a few inches of sand. Still think we can get another big storm. 2004 tried and sort of failed on 3/16....moderate storm but left some on the table.

RGEM and Euro at 06z were really good for pike region. GFS was decent too though a little warmer, but the GFS has all this weenie hangback snow for 24 hours after the main WAA thrust.

I’d be surprised if anyone saw more than C-1”. Except maybe highest terrain of southern Berkshires and NW CT, and even that might be a stretch.

Prob gonna see some flip flopping on this one as models try and untangle the knots out west.

Nah, keep the 40s and garbage onshore flow until late March. Let’s layer this pack up. No desire whatsoever for mud season and brown grass.

Need a bump NW at 12z. 06z euro suite including skynet was def a bit better.

Avoiding the glue factory

Yeah NAM isn’t biting on the north trend of the hrrr and rap.

It’s almost impossible to get a full-on blown whiff on a MECS like we would occasionally get back then, but yeah, this season hasnt been a banner year for model guidance. Btw I forgot to respond to your question about snowfall to date vs climo here back in the February thread…I’m at about 43” I think to date and average to date would prob be around 38-40”. We do still have some beefy snow climo to get through the next 3-4 weeks before it tapers quickly. Snowfall is AN but not drastically so…but snow depth days are way AN since we haven’t melted much since mid January…and even December and early January had a lot of snow cover days even though it was frequently 1-3” crusty inches. I think the next 7-10 days will decide whether this season wants to go well AN into the upper 20-25% of seasons or remain relatively close to the median year and be more remembered for the prolonged cold and snow cover rather than actual storms and totals.

It’s been a tough few weeks on short range stuff. Bringing us back to the first half of 2010s and late 2000s with these shorter range hiccups. I remember way back during the Feb 2006 storm, the 06z ETA completely whiffed us 18 hours before the event started and we all just kind of shrugged and tossed it like it was normal before we even saw other 06z runs. That was life back then.

I like this call right now. Chance at a bit higher upside but I wouldn’t honk that yet. If it trends better, can always adjust since it’s 3+ days out.

Hrrr is coming back north. Wonder if today was a bit of an over trend?

Doesn’t bode well for spring probably. We typically don’t stein for too long around here so you know the cutoffs and 38F rain are just waiting to torture us for weeks once we hit April.

Euro could be right but I’m still hedging toward more amplified for reasons I posted earlier in this thread. It also has not been good at all this season when on an island. I do think it’s telling though that the “glue factory” posts about the euro are not very plentiful at the moment. Tells me most people don’t believe that rhetoric. Kevin and Accordions not withstanding.

Nasty day today here….mid 30s and overcast. A few weenie flakes too, esp during morning.

Is there a particular reason this just won’t trend south into almost nothing? It’s been a hard trend very close in.

A lot of guidance has longitude component to the ptype over SNE. Scooter could be ripping while ALB is pelting or ZR.

It was awful in the medium range on 1/18-19 too. Skynet crushed it.

I think you need to look at a D5-6 system in the aggregate right now. Euro has consistently been the least amplified but it has overall come northwest over the last few cycles. The 06z run was more amped than this one but most of the previous runs were not. Other guidance continues to trend toward a pretty signficiant system. Also, both AI models have been bullish on this which has generally been a positive signal this winter. You have a solid Hudson Bay block but it’s not exceptionally strong. You also have a potent shortwave that is already fairly amplified out west of us and the block is the one thing stopping it from being too amped. Taking all of these factors together, I think this is in a pretty good spot right now. There’s no guarantees. For a D6 system, it has more support than we typically see.

Yeah I’m leaning low end advisory for the best stripe. Maybe someone lucks into 4-6” totals but I’d think those would be isolated if they happen at all.