ORH_wxman

Lol that OP GFS shows like 3 straight days of 70s to start the second week of March. Unlikely that verifies but the longwave pattern is definitely getting a warmer look at that point.

Can’t remember the last time we had this many C-2” type events. I’ll have to run the numbers but it feels like the highest this decade at min.

Just shoveled quickly. Sun will melt anything else that falls. About 1.5” refresher…can’t complain…was expecting C-1”

That was part of it, but most of the snow in these tends to fall within a 18-20 hour period....the stall prob adds another half foot or something like that. Someone very lucky gets more in the stall, but usually the precip starts to get pretty banded after a time when it stalls. If you push that arc of convective snows well inland, you're gonna get crazy widespread totals....think April '97 with maybe a bit less total QPF (we wouldn't have gotten quite the juicy WCB like that one had....which fell in a lot of areas as rain) and colder of course so the net result is basically '97 with the 30"+ stuff over a larger area. But who knows for sure since we didn't see it. I agree that the current jackpot area would've gotten less if it tracked 50 miles NW, but my guess is still easily 20-30"+.

Eyeballing an inch with one more solid band to move through....would be awesome if we could get to 2".

That map isn’t quite final. Still has BOS at 16.9

Starting to pick up now. Borderline moderate with good growth

Def feels like an over performer here looking at radar. Steady light snow but picking up quick. Temp wetbulbing down to 16F. Was kind of skeptical of this one but seems like we got enough southerly flow juicing this a bit into the low level cold dome.

Snow commencing here. Temp 17F. Don’t think we’ll have many BL issues until it’s out.

April ‘97 only jackpotted ORH because it was classic late season elevation enhancement. The QPF maxes were southeast but they wasted a bunch of it on rain. That wouldn’t be the case in late February. That’s why it would truly have been amazing to try and see it. Once you introduce that type of instability aloft into a nuking Nor’ Easter, it takes it up to another level….from merely HECS type stuff to generational top 5 stuff.

I remember posting in the lead-up to this event that the arc of convective snows was really catching my attention since it gave some of us instant flashbacks to April ‘97. It’s just a Firehose of convective snow streaming in from the ESE. But once the whole system trended a bit SE, the orientation changed enough to put far SE MA and much of RI in the cross hairs. We got the snow rates…it doesn’t take much imagination to think how this might have performed if it was 50-100 miles northwest like many runs had shown until the last 18-24 hours leading into the storm. That monster firehose being enhanced by convective elements would have been shot across a much larger chunk of SNE. Probably a more zonked system overall too if it was further NW. Still a great storm overall but that’s why those region-wide all-timers are so rare. You need things to line up. This one was so close though.

Ginxy has the same longitude as ORH but far enough inland and elevated to avoid a lot of the SE CT flatland problems with marine intrusion. Def a solid spot. He prob only averages a hair less than N Foster coop just up the road and a little higher.

Yeah the west slope gets probably on averages a solid 8-10” less per year than equivalent elevation on the east slope of ORH hills. The events you clean up really good in are those westerly component flow events at the sfc. They just aren’t super common. The SWFEs are always fun for most since they remove a lot of the orographic effects and it’s usually just latitude/longitude.

SNE will clean up again next week and then when everyone is ready to wishcast napes and DSDs, NNE will get a random 30”+ bomb in the second half of March.

If you have a very windy storm like this one and you measure downwind from a roof, you definitely can get inflated totals. These are always so hard to get measurements in. You are essentially reporting a measurement with a legit 10% error bar.

These events are typically garbage east of the spine of ORH hills. Prob C-1” here…maybe 2” if lucky.

Yeah the day before I thought it was fine. Maybe in the finals hours leading into the event I would’ve gone a little more conservative on the northern parts, but overall it was a tough forecast. You can’t kick yourself too much when it trends like 75-100 miles SE in the final 6-10 hours.

Prob would’ve been closer to 43-45” or so in clearing because once you are getting 15”+ totals in a 6 hour period like they were, the compaction is already getting baked in to an extent. Also, the snow there wasn’t particularly fluffy for a chunk of the storm. I feel like the biggest discrepancies happen in less windy storms with excellent snow growth and middle type totals. Like that 10-20” range over 18 hours. Or…say you get a very long duration event like ‘78 or Feb ‘69…then you can start adding up those small differences every 6 hours.

I’m not sure how you could discredit the 40”+ totals near Fall River. It’s an impossible task anyway and additionally, they were probably in the best stuff longer than TF Green airport was.

2018-19 was a very good winter in NNE. It was ok here but nothing special. Kind of an inverse of this season where most of SNE (outside of far northern MA) is going to put up a very good grade while most of NNE will be ok but nothing special. Still some time to change it I guess if March does something crazy. That 2018-19 winter did have a pretty signature arctic out real though in January unlike this winter. ORH had a high of 1F I remember, which was the lowest max since 1994 when they also had a high of 1F.

Hillary Andrews just deleted her account

Northwest Providence was prob just outside the meat of that band. Difference between getting 1-2" per hour for many hours in a row verses like 3-4" per hour. That can quickly add up to a 10-15" difference.

Lets trend Tuesday into a beefy cold SWFE....that will make the public go haywire.

I'm totally selling friday outside of maybe a weak scrape. We focus on next week for anything bigger.

Friday feels like a whiff. Do any OP models even have it as a hit now?