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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Yeah. I mean there’s a chance he’s right but it’s still very uncertain. You don’t want to overstate it to the public yet because then they will go wild too.
  2. ORH_wxman
    It was the 12z OP GFS on Christmas Eve. It was so outlandish that even the NCEP model diagnostic discussion tossed it! Lol.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Lol I saw it labeled as Feb 10th. I thought it was another storm in the pipeline so I got confused. But yeah if that is for Sunday’s storm, that max band at H7 is prob your western death band.
  4. ORH_wxman
    When did 18z run to 300+ hours? Is that new?
  5. ORH_wxman
    I’m actually somewhat shocked at how bad the response to this storm has been. None of the storms like Feb 2021 or Jan 2022 or the 2018 storms caused this type of disruption. This area got really soft the last 2-3 years.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Given the bullishness of the ensembles, it seems plenty of members are slingshotting it in some fashion…even if not the exact same track. Im still somewhat of a skeptic on this being big, but I think the path to a big event is ripping that dumbbell low NNW around the H5 low….Is feel better to start things a little further west.
  7. ORH_wxman
    That looks quite a bit more favorable than 12z. A lot more runs that are dumping 1”+ of QPF around Boston and even metrowest. There’s obviously still plenty of scrapers and whiffs. I’m not sold yet but 18z Euro suite was def good.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Usually the convective lows are correct when a bunch of higher skill guidance is showing them. So this is the way to get crushed…have it get sling shotted around to the north and blast us.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Wow what a crush job for eastern folks….top 5-7 storm for Cape
  10. ORH_wxman
    The issue is the trend. We need the trend to stop and reverse. It still can but if it merely stops and doesn’t reverse, it’s prob a scraper with almost nothing for western areas.
  11. ORH_wxman
    00z is last stand I think...we need a trend back west at 00z or we can punt this one I think. This is the type of threat that 2 or 3 east trends in a row is fatal.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Looks like both skynet GFS and OP GFS are going to put an end to that....both models look east of 12z.
  13. ORH_wxman
    GFS skynet is gonna be east again
  14. ORH_wxman
    We cant compare 84h on the 18z to 12z since it doesn't go beyond 84...but you are correct that 78h on the 18z run was north of the 12z run but it was also east...so I think in the end it wouldn't end up as good, but probably still a hit. Anyways, not really relevant anyway given the model itself isn't that useful beyond 48.
  15. ORH_wxman
    RGEM went east of 12z....but I thought 12z looked pretty amped. The ridge out west is better though, so we may be able to slingshot it north.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Those are 00z model runs
  17. ORH_wxman
    Just keep amplifying that western ridge...lets drop the kicker s/w like due south so our storm fujiwaras around it...almost like Jan 27, 2015.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Gonna need this thing to dig further west. 12z trends were the opposite. Still in the game but can’t afford any additional trending east
  19. ORH_wxman
    Back then we prob had storms over the Flemish cap at day 4 that ended up crushing us.
  20. ORH_wxman
    That month was so bad in SNE....very little snow and just brutal cold...I think it was a top 5 coldest March....the one big storm ended up being mostly rain for us while it buried NNE...I think we got a consolation of a few inches of fluff at the end which sublimated within 2 days. Then the knock-out punch was the Cape blizzard which teased us for days. What an epic stretch in NNE though...I went to Sunday River on the 21st-23rd that month and they had natural snow depth in town of around 40-45"
  21. ORH_wxman
    Lol, they are warmer than DCA right now. We toss.
  22. ORH_wxman
    It is also a low probability to even have a major threat less than a week after a biggie. But here we are....whether it hits or not.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Ukie is a whiff again, but slightly better aloft.
  24. ORH_wxman
    Late surge this run NW
  25. ORH_wxman
    OP GFS gonna be east too.
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