baltosquid

Excellent NAMming!

Honestly check the GEFS snowfall trend over the last 24 hrs. It’s steadily improving. Upside is greatly reduced but maybe a 2-4 event is on the table if the passage of the cutter yields further improvements in this direction.

GEFS mean is 2 inches for the metros and their burbs, southern MD, and eastern shore if you’re west of the Delaware border longitude. Could be worse. Obviously it’s a smear of individual, less broad area of snowfall outcomes.

GEM has the pieces but they don’t consolidate like the GFS does.

ECMWF and its ensembles have always seemed to be very gradual movers relative to the GFS and especially the GEM. Not surprising it will take more than one run to reel it in if that is indeed in the cards. It’s a positive run, don’t let the doomium win just yet

EPS leaves me hopeful the bleed will be in our favor, but it was only a baby step.

Just put the bar at grass coverage. Something to help temps stay low before the 20th potential. If we fully poof that’s definitely a kick in the teeth but knowing opportunities are following and we’ve got an inchless streak to break, this is the sweet spot of expectations for me given the models right now.

UKMET over amped, GEM right on track, GFS underamped, Euro too lazy to amp anything up at all. Still a wide range of outcomes and we're right in the middle so far.

Edit: ICON also slightly underamped, but looks respectable honestly. That's 4 hits of some kind to the euro's sole emphatic no.

Kicker status.

The cold is incredible on GEFS. Goes below freezing Sunday evening, hr 72. Not a moment back above freezing through 228 and the cold gets refreshed then as well!

Much angst over the op (at first) but the GEFS continues its happy trend west, at least I would argue this was a tick west.

Curves right around the outer banks so sensually, doesn't it?

Just now, Terpeast said:

Just saw that, its hinting at faster cyclogenesis once it passes the NC/VA latitude with a bigger precip shield. I feel better about what the ensembles show than the op, even though the op was a decent run (I probably overreacted at first lol)

could the increased spread here be due to members starting to toss around different locations and timescales for cyclogenesis?

Could be the beginning of a two-camp fight in the GEFS for where the low is primarily based out of/timing?

Coastal development has me intrigued, though getting it to pop in the right place is a toughie.

big rate burp for @CAPE at the end though!

So the SE trend paused at 18z. Good!

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Even alone 0.25 on a QPF mean all snow at day is 5 is good.  And it’s better being on the NW side of the envelope than on the SE side of a snow potential with raging southerly mid level flow.  

And if the euro is suppressed, that 0.25 is quite possibly coming into a much colder environment with ratios better than 10:1.

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Day 5 WPC. Look at when they issued it. They had to have seen the 12z euro before issuing

 

Is there any discussion on this or just as-is?

I just think it's a good sign that the kicker seemed to at least relax a bit at 18z, even if it didn't give us a huge hit. Honestly, wouldn't be the worst if some weak kicker (much weaker than 12z euro) stuck around to prevent over amping it and risking getting too much of what the GFS is selling - there's still enough time to lose this to the NW even if right now we're worried about suppression. I know that makes it more complicated but at least right now the entire subforum is within the goalposts on it, so if we can just trend inward to the meeting point of models, we're sitting quite nicely I think.

Don't quote me, but I think we just need the TPV to ease off a bit... ridging increasing behind the storm bodes well for it amplifying in a vacuum but it needs room and the TPV won't give it any! Ease off too much though and with ridging behind like that, could risk too much amplification I think.

Feels like the TPV is just getting deeper and deeper and remains uncomfortably close. Would not be surprised if the EPS also reflects more suppression.

EPS continues to enhance that first trailing vort. Other than that, no huge changes through 60...

1 minute ago, snowfan said:

Beethoven even discussing the idea of starting a thread killed the storm. 

Forget the Curse of the Ninth, Beethoven succumbed to the Curse of the Thread...